Citigroup to cut another 53,000 jobs...

Source: Mail.com


Citigroup Inc. is cutting approximately 53,000 more jobs in the coming quarters as the banking giant struggles to steady itself after suffering massive losses from deteriorating debt.

The plans, posted on the company's Web site, are being discussed by CEO Vikram Pandit at the company's town hall meeting in New York Monday with employees.

The company said total headcount is being reduced by 20 percent from its peak of 375,000 at the end of 2007; the company had already announced in October that it was eliminating about 22,000 jobs from those levels. The total workforce reductions include thousands of jobs that will be lost when Citigroup completes the sale of Citi Global Services and its German retail banking business.

The New York-based bank has posted four straight quarterly losses, including a loss of $2.8 billion during the third quarter. The company said that in addition to job cuts, it plans to lower expenses by about 20 percent, and that is has reduced its assets by more than 20 percent since the first quarter of the year.

Citi shares fell 42 cents, or 4.4 percent, to $9.10 in morning trading. The company's shares have been trading at 13-year lows.

Shortly before the town hall meeting in New York, Citigroup Chairman Win Bischoff said at a business forum in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, that it would be irresponsible for Citi and other companies not to look at staffing in the event of a prolonged economic downturn.

"What all of us have done -- and perhaps injudiciously -- we've added a lot of people over ... this very benign period," Bischoff said.

"If there is a reversion to the mean ... those job losses will obviously fall particularly heavily on the financial sector," he added. "Certainly they will fall particularly heavily on London and New York."

In his comments to the Associated Press, Bischoff did not rule out the likelihood that Citi's leaders would go without bonuses this year -- a move that would effectively amount to a substantial pay cut for the company's executives.

"Watch this space," he said when asked about lost bonuses.

On Sunday, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said seven top executives, including Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein, opted out of receiving cash or stock bonuses for 2008 amid the ongoing credit crisis.

EUR/USD --- Quick Look...

Hello everyone,

A quick look on the EUR/USD today. In the daily analysis, it is stuck or in a traffic jam of a closing wedge. Be a little careful of this wedge as it can be seen to be holding quite firmly.

It is best to wait for a break out and then hunt for opportunity that arises from then on :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My EUR/USD Trade (30-10-2008) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Howdy everyone,

Before I start, wish everyone a Happy Hallowen 2008 :)

Let's get started. My trade on EUR/USD yesterday (30-10-2008). I looked at the charts the whole day and price just keeps on dropping without giving me any story to initiate any open position. What my four teachers had taught me is that, to be patient with the market, stick to my rules and trading plan and that is what I did and continued on doing corporate action and pricing at my desk.

I came home, had dinner at home because my wife was feeling a little unwell. Then I went back to sit in front of my "VGN-C25G/B" to look at my charts.

Then I saw market had an interim support at the price line of 1.3033 and 09:00pm (Singapore Time) | 01:00pm (GMT) candle broke the price line. At the same time MAs are turning below, my slow MACD is already below, Stochs changed its mind and turned back below.

I initiated a short position at the price line of 1.2956 at 10:04 (Singapore Time) | 02:04pm (GMT). My Stop Loss at 1.2995 (39pips) and Target Profit at 1.2845 (111pips). Risk : Reward = 39 : 111 = 1 : 2.8

Why my Target Profit at that price? With 50% Fibo and my Weekly Pivot Point, they are at par at the price line of 1.2815 and a price action support at 1.2843 (28-10-2008's high). Hence, being a conservative trader as always, I placed my Target Profit at the mentioned price line at 1.2845.

I waited for the 10:00pm (Singapore Time) | 02:00 (GMT) candle to finish forming at the end of the hour. When it was done, it was unable to clear below my 200ma support and resistance at yesterday's high. Hence, I shifted my Stop Loss to Protective Stop at my entry price before I went to bed.

Woke up today and found out that my Target Profit has been hit at 11:46pm (Singapore Time) | 03:46pm (GMT), just as I was about to sleep :)

111pips profit for this trade.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/JPY Trade (28-10-2008) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Hello everyone,

I apologise for not posting anything for the longest time. OMG! I didn't even have time to capture my trades done for posting. All I had was trade and zoom back to fight the financial meltdown at my desk.

Anyways, I managed to squeeze sometime to at least post this one out :)

My trade on the USD/JPY done on 28-10-2008.

Was only looking on Monday at the market as it goes by and I saw a consolidation and a wedge being formed. It broke out and even that didn't tempt me a little bit to be trigger happy.

Stick the rules and it is around the Weekly Pivot. It broke above Weekly Pivot then came back down and it went back up and that was when my eyes were brighten up.

My Moving Averages are up, both my MACDs are up and my Stochs are like sky high and my GRBB was in a good mood. Waited for that hour to end to re-confirm price action is strong enough to stay above the Weekly Pivot and initiated a long position at the start of the next hour at the price line of 95.34 at 08:00pm (Singapore Time) | 12:00am (GMT).

My Stop Loss is at 94.80 (54pips) and Target Profit at 98.00 (266pips) which just below 38.2% Fibo (Weekly Chart) and Low of 10-10-2008. Risk : Reward = 54 : 266 = 4.9

Basically, after that, I didn't look at my charts and continued with my things. Went home, had dinner with my wife and do some other stuffs. The next day, when I woke up, looked at my charts and my Target Profit was hit at 03:21am (Singapore Time) : 07:21pm (GMT).

266pips profit for this trade.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Stock futures higher as investors watch earnings...

Source: Mail.com

Wall Street headed for a higher open Monday as investors cheered signs of thawing in global credit markets even as they poured over a batch of quarterly earnings for clues about whether the U.S. faces a short downturn or a deep, protracted recession. Ahead of the market's open, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 161, or 1.83 percent, to 8,932.

On Friday, the Dow ended 127 points lower after another back-and-forth session that has characterized recent trading, the volatility was markedly less.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index futures rose 20.70, or 2.22 percent, to 954.20 and the Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 24.25, or 1.85 percent, to 1,335.25.

Shaken by the extreme volatility of trading over the past two weeks, investors were hopeful that improvements in the credit markets signaled that a bottom has been reached and that normalcy will return to edgy financial markets.

In a snapshot of how the real economy is weathering the crisis, companies from sectors including retail, credit cards, defense, energy and technology report third-quarter earnings Monday. Investors are watching the reports for any indication of where the U.S. economy is headed.

Toy maker Mattel Inc. said Monday its fiscal third-quarter profit rose on higher sales of its Fisher-Price and American Girl brands, but results missed Wall Street expectations as expenses rose. Meanwhile, rival Hasbro Inc. reported lower profits for the third quarter but still beat expectations on sales of its Star Wars, Playskool and Nerf toys.

But analysts say the companies' expectations about how they'll perform going forward will be more telling.

Strains in credit markets continued showing signs of easing after a raft of bailout measures by governments around the world, including a joint U.S. and European plan to buy stakes in private banks to boost their lending. Demand for Treasury bills, regarded as the safest assets around, lessened Monday but remained relatively high in a sign that there was still much fear in the markets.

The three-month Treasury bill Monday yielded 0.82 percent, unchanged from late Friday. That's better than the 0.20 percent of last Wednesday, but the yield but has not surpassed 1 percent in more than a week.

Investors were also optimistic about the steady decline in bank-to-bank lending rates, which fell for a sixth straight day Monday. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month dollar loans fell 0.36 percent to 4.06 percent, the biggest daily drop since January.

The dollar was lower against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.

In other earnings, Halliburton Co. on Monday reported a third-quarter net loss of $21 million, due largely to the cash settlement of convertible debt. However, the oilfield services provider said operating income topped $1 billion for the first time.

Earnings from American Express Co., Lockheed Martin Corp. and Texas Instruments Inc. are due later in the day.

Investors will also be waiting for comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who is scheduled to appear Monday before the House Budget Committee to give lawmakers an update on the financial crisis. Bernanke is likely to once again put the country on notice that there won't be a quick fix while potentially leaving the door open for further interest rate cuts to provide some relief.

Light, sweet crude was up $1.77 to $73.62 a barrel in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, it sank to an almost 16-month low on worries about a deep global recession obliterating fuel demand.

Financial markets overseas were higher.

Japan's Nikkei stock average was up 3.59 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 was up 2.09 percent, Germany's DAX index was up 1.95 percent, and France's CAC-40 was up 1.78 percent.

GBP/USD (Quick Look)...

Hello everyone,

I am going to pick GBP/USD as our subject of our quick look.

Attached chart is the GBP/USD Weekly chart. From a short term quick look, we can see that market is now having a breather. How far will this breather go? No one will know. Will the trend on the down side continue? That's an answer most people want to know.

For Samurai Brotherhood Traders, we see what is happening right now and decide. For now, with the use of Fibo Retracement, we can expect market to make a breather towards the 38.2% or the price line of 1.8475. If market can break above this price line, be prepared to see market having a peak between 38.2% - 50%. Unlikely market will break through the 50% Fibo or else, this trend on the downside will end.

With the confusion and raw situations happening in the USA, we can expect more market turmoil and be careful when placing your trades. A lot of emotions going on but clear and strong trade signals are always there. Opportunity never cease to surface in FX Market.

For now, do not be too eager to initiate a trade when in doubt. Be clear and confident. Remember, trading is not about gut feeling else it will be called gambling.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Stocks end higher after Fed keeps rates unchanged...

Source: Mail.com

Wall Street ended another tumultuous session with a sizable gain Tuesday, partly recovering from its worst sell-off in years after the Federal Reserve said it was keeping interest rates steady. The central bank soothed fears of a worsening financial crisis even as the market waited to learn the fate of troubled insurer American International Group Inc.

In a statement accompanying its decision, the Fed noted the growing strains in the financial markets a day after the Dow Jones industrials plunged 504 points in reaction to continuing turmoil in the financial sector. The Fed also noted the ongoing weakening of the labor market. But it also sought to give some reassurance by saying it expected its policy moves to foster moderate economic growth over time.

The Fed has cut its target federal funds rate by 3.25 percentage points to its current level of 2 percent over the past year. Many on Wall Street expected the Fed to keep rates steady but there was some hope that the central bank would try to calm uneasy financial markets with a rate cut.

Still, the fact that the Fed didn't lower rates was a sign that it doesn't believe the economy needs that type of stimulus. It reiterated that it believed its moves to inject more liquidity into the banking system to help struggling financial institutions would help them, and in turn the economy overall.

"This was the right thing to do," said Tom Higgins, chief economist at Payden & Rygel Investment Management in Los Angeles. "I just don't think the Fed should be responding to the financial market crisis at this stage."

He contends other moves, like broadening the type of collateral the Fed accepts from banks and adding money to the banking system are more effective at addressing credit troubles.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow rose 141.51, or 1.30 percent, to 11,059.02, after falling about 100 points immediately after the Fed announcement. The Dow at turns rose and fell as much as 175 points in fractious trading; on Monday, it suffered its largest drop since the September 2001 terror attacks.

Broader stock indicators advanced. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 20.90, or 1.75 percent, to 1,213.60, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 27.99, or 1.28 percent, to 2,207.90.

On Monday, the Dow fell 4.4 percent, the S&P gave up 4.7 percent and the Nasdaq fell 3.6 percent.

Bond prices fell sharply Tuesday as investors turned away from the safety of government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.52 percent from 3.41 percent late Monday. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

Stocks extend slide on worries about health of AIG...

Source: Mail.com

Stocks extended their steep decline and bond prices jumped Tuesday, a day after Wall Street's worst session in years, as nervous investors grappled with concerns about insurer American International Group Inc. and awaited the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates.

Worries about the well-being of AIG have intensified after the several ratings agencies reduced their ratings on the company. Lower ratings can add to the amount of money the already cash-strapped company has to set aside. Investors are fearful that a failure by the world's largest insurance company would touch off a wave of financial turmoil. AIG fell $3.09, or 65 percent, to $1.67 in early trading.

Comments from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. about the banking sector added to investors' glum mood.

Markets around the world were still reeling from the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the quickly assembled weekend sale of Merrill Lynch & Co. to Bank of America Corp. Investors fear that tectonic shifts in the power structure of Wall Street signal that the financial sector's trouble with imperiled credit are far from over.

In the first half-hour of trading, the Dow fell 48.61, or 0.45 percent, to 10,868.90. The Dow fell as much as 175 in the opening minutes of the session; on Monday, the Dow lost 504 points, its largest drop since the September 2001 terror attacks.

Broader stock indicators also fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index declined 11.59, or 0.97 percent, to 1,181.11, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 19.83, or 0.91 percent, to 2,160.08.

Bond prices jumped as investors sought the safety of government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.30 percent from 3.41 percent late Monday.

Lehman Brothers says it will file Chapter 11...

Source: Mail.com

Storied Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. says it intends to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

The 158-year-old Lehman was crippled by $60 billion in soured real-estate holdings and unable to find an investment partner to throw it a lifeline.

Lehman said in a statement early Monday that none of its broker-dealer subsidiaries or other units would be included in the Chapter 11 filing in U.S. bankruptcy court in New York.

The investment bank said it is exploring the sale of its broker-dealer operations and is in "advanced discussions" to sell its investment management unit.

Stocks point sharply lower after tumultuous Sunday...

Source: Mail.com

U.S. stocks headed for a sharply lower open and Treasury bond prices soared Monday as investors reacted to a stunning reshaping of the landscape of Wall Street. A series of events took out two storied names Sunday: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co.

Stocks posted sharp losses in markets across much of the globe as investors absorbed a bankruptcy filing by Lehman and Merrill Lynch's forced sale to Bank of America for $50 billion in stock. And perhaps most ominously, American International Group Inc. is asking the Federal Reserve for emergency funding. The world's largest insurance company plans to announce a major restructuring Monday.

The swift developments are the biggest yet in the 14-month-old credit crises that stems from now toxic subprime mortgage debt.

Investors are worried that trouble at AIG and the bankruptcy filing by Lehman, felled by $60 billion in bad debt and a dearth of investor confidence, will touch off another series of troubles for banks and financial institutions. Wall Street had been hopeful six months ago that the collapse of Bear Stearns would mark the darkest day of the credit crisis.

But many market observers have said for months that a cathartic sell-off is necessary for Wall Street to purge its worries over bad debt and the tight credit conditions that have hobbled the economy. A scare and subsequent sell-off in the markets could establish conditions for a market bottom to form.

Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 372, or 3.3 percent, to 11,086. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures fell 48.00, or 3.81 percent, to 1,210.50. Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 49.25, or 2.8 percent, to 1,730.25.

Bond prices surged as investors fled to the security of government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, plunged to 3.50 percent from 3.72 percent late Friday. The dollar was lower against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.

Markets in Tokyo and several other Asian money centers were closed for holidays. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 3.64 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 3.33 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 4.37 percent. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Swiss central bank stepped in an attempt to calm markets by making more short-term credit available to banks.

Light, sweet crude dropped $4.43 to $96.75 in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange after damage to Gulf of Mexico oil infrastructure from Hurricane Ike was less than Wall Street feared. Worries about a slower economy have also weighed on oil prices in recent weeks. Oil is down sharply from its mid-July highs when it hit a record over $147 a barrel.

But despite the pullback in oil, prices the gas pump rose above $5 per gallon in some parts of the country Sunday after Ike left some the nation's refining capacity inoperable.

The reduced headcount of Wall Street firms Monday left Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley as the remaining big, independent firms. The two are slated to report quarterly results Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
The shake up comes only a week after the government bailed out mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and ahead of big economic developments this week. The Federal Reserve is expected to make a decision on interest rates on Tuesday. Meanwhile, on Monday, Wall Street is also expecting a reading from the New York Fed on regional manufacturing gas well as a report on industrial production.

Global Events Calendar [15-09-2008] - [19-09-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+8:00).

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [15-09-2008] - [19-09-2008]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [15-09-2008]
6:45am--------------NZD Manufacturing Sales q/q
[Whole Day Event]---JPY Holiday: Respect-for-the-Aged Day
9:30am--------------AUD Housing Starts q/q
3:15pm--------------CHF PPI m/m
3:15pm--------------CHF Retail Sales y/y
5:00pm--------------EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
8:30pm--------------CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
8:30pm--------------USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
9:15pm--------------USD Capacity Utilization Rate
9:15pm--------------USD Industrial Production m/m

Tuesday [16-09-2008]
9:30am-----------AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
1:00pm-----------JPY Household Confidence
2:00pm-----------EUR German Final CPI m/m
3:15pm-----------CHF Industrial Production q/q
4:30pm-----------GBP CPI y/y
4:30pm-----------GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30pm-----------GBP DCLG HPI y/y
4:30pm-----------GBP RPI y/y
5:00pm-----------EUR CPI y/y
5:00pm-----------EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00pm-----------EUR Core CPI y/y
5:00pm-----------EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
[Time Unknown]---GBP BOE Inflation Letter
8:30pm-----------CAD Manufacturing Shipments m/m
8:30pm-----------USD Core CPI m/m
8:30pm-----------USD CPI m/m
9:00pm-----------USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
10:00pm----------USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks
11:00pm----------CHF Gov Board Member Hildebrand Speaks

Wednesday [17-09-2008]
1:00am-----------USD NAHB Housing Market Index
2:15am-----------USD FOMC Statement
2:15am-----------USD Federal Funds Rate
8:30am-----------AUD MI Leading Index m/m
[Time Unknown]---JPY Overnight Call Rate
11:20am-----------AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
[Time Unknown]---JPY BOJ Press Conference
4:30pm-----------GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30pm-----------GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
4:30pm-----------GBP Average Earnings Index y/y
4:30pm-----------GBP Unemployment Rate
5:00pm-----------CHF ZEW Expectations
5:00pm-----------EUR Trade Balance
6:00pm-----------GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders
8:30pm-----------CAD Foreign Securities Purchases
8:30pm-----------USD Building Permits
8:30pm-----------USD Current Account
8:30pm-----------USD Housing Starts
10:35pm----------USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [18-09-2008]
7:50am---JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m
9:30am---AUD RBA Monthly Bulletin
1:00pm---JPY BOJ Monthly Report
2:00pm---JPY BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks
2:15pm---CHF Trade Balance
4:00pm---GBP MPC Member Dale Speaks
4:30pm---GBP Retail Sales m/m
4:30pm---GBP M4 Money Supply m/m
4:30pm---GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
8:00pm---CHF Libor Rate
8:00pm---CHF Monetary Policy Assessment
8:30pm---CAD Wholesale Sales m/m
8:30pm---CAD Leading Index m/m
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm--USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00pm--USD CB Leading Index m/m
10:35pm--USD Natural Gas Storage

Friday [19-09-2008]
6:45am---NZD Current Account
6:45am---NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m
8:15am---CAD Gov Council Member Murray Speaks
11:00am--NZD Credit Card Spending y/y
2:00pm---EUR German PPI m/m
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

US stock futures surge on plan for mortgage giants

Source: Mail.com

U.S. stock futures pointed to a huge rally Monday as investors rushed to lay bets on a broad economic recovery following the weekend announcement that the U.S. government plans to bail out mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Stock futures jumped more than 2 percent.

Meanwhile, bond prices fell sharply as emboldened investors looked for riskier but higher-yielding bets.

The announcement Sunday that the Treasury Department was seizing control of the companies, which own or back about half the nation's mortgage debt, brushed aside investors' persistent worries that the companies would be felled by a spike in bad mortgage debt.

The plan to inject up to $100 billion in each of the government-chartered mortgage giants could not only help lower mortgage rates but, some investors are hoping, buoy the overall economy. The plan could help banks feel more open to write new mortgages and to refinance existing mortgages at lower rates, offering a possible lifeline to consumers struggling with increasing payments.

The government's steadying hand for two institutions that many Wall Street observers had said were simply too big to let fail still might not alleviate troubles of some homeowners who have fallen behind on their mortgages.

Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams in New York, said while the plan boosts confidence in sectors like financials and home builders, it doesn't immediately alleviate worries about other areas of the economy. Still, he said the move was far preferable to a collapse of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

"It saves from Armageddon from happening," he said. "If you think about it this helps the financials, this helps the housing market. Tech took a huge hit last week. Does this really affect tech? I don't think so."

Dow Jones industrial average futures surged 263, or 2.34 percent, to 11,490. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures rose 39.30, or 3.17 percent, to 1,280.40. And Nasdaq composite index futures rose 39.25, or 2.22 percent, to 1,809.25. Stocks finished last week with steep losses amid worries about the overall economy and the financial sector.

Bond prices pulled back sharply Monday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, jumped to 3.78 percent from 3.69 percent late Friday. The dollar was higher against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.

The U.S. government's plan touched off a global stock rally Monday even though common shareholders of the stock of Fannie Man and Freddie Mac will be virtually wiped out by the plan, which would balloon the shares of companies to give a nearly 80 percent stake to the government. The companies' shares had already logged huge declines in the last year so many shareholders have already endured the majority of their losses.

But foreign investors holding debt of the companies were relieved as were investors simply looking for stronger growth from the U.S. economy, particularly as many economies abroad give off signs they are slowing. Japan's Nikkei stock average jumped 3.4 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index surged 4.3 percent. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 jumped 3.81 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 3.50 percent, and France's CAC-40 surged 4.44 percent.

Investors appeared to look past a rise in oil, which logged steep declines last week as investors worried that a slowing global economy would hurt demand. Light, sweet crude rose $2.67 to $108.90 in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In corporate news, Washington Mutual Inc. said it has removed Kerry Killinger from the chief executive spot. The savings and loan is working to overhaul its business, which has been hurt by bad mortgage debt. Alan H. Fishman is replacing Killinger.

Altria Group Inc. announced it will buy UST, the maker of Skoal and Copenhagen smokeless tobacco, for nearly $10 billion. The maker of Marlboro cigarettes said it will pay $69.50 per share. UST shares jumped Friday to finish at $67.55 following a report of the deal.

OPEC 149th Meeting....

Today, Monday [08-09-2008], there will be an OPEC Meeting. This event will be carried out in Vienna, heart of Austria, for the next three days (European Business Hours).

What is OPEC?

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will begin their 149th meeting in Vienna to discuss a range of issues related to the oil markets, most importantly whether to not to adjust oil production by OPEC nations. OPEC members are expected to talk with the press throughout the 3-day meeting and a press conference is usually held at the conclusion. OPEC contributes 40% of the world's oil and their policies can have a dramatic effect on oil prices, which in turn can affect currency prices of most nations.

Global Events Calendar [08-09-2008] - [12-09-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+8:00).

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [08-09-2008] - [12-09-2008]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [08-09-2008]
7:00am--------------AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
7:50am--------------JPY M2 Money Stock y/y
1:00pm--------------JPY Economy Watchers Current Index
1:45pm--------------CHF Unemployment Rate
4:30pm--------------EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
4:30pm--------------GBP PPI Input m/m
4:30pm--------------GBP PPI Output m/m
[Whole Day Event]---ALL OPEC Meeting
8:30pm--------------CAD Building Permits m/m

Tuesday [09-09-2008]
1:00am--------------USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
3:00am--------------USD Consumer Credit m/m
7:01am--------------GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
7:01am--------------GBP RICS House Price Balance
7:01am--------------GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
9:30am--------------AUD Home Loans m/m
9:30am--------------AUD Retail Sales m/m
9:30am--------------AUD NAB Business Confidence
2:00pm--------------EUR German Trade Balance
2:00pm--------------JPY Machine Tool Orders y/y
4:30pm--------------GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
4:30pm--------------GBP Industrial Production m/m
[Whole Day Event]---ALL OPEC Meeting
8:15pm--------------CAD Housing Starts
9:00pm--------------USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
10:00pm-------------USD Pending Home Sales m/m
10:00pm-------------USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
10:00pm-------------USD Wholesale Inventories m/m

Wednesday [10-09-2008]
6:45am--------------NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q
7:50am--------------JPY CGPI y/y
7:50am--------------JPY Current Account
8:30am--------------AUD MI Consumer Sentiment m/m
1:00pm--------------JPY Leading Indicators
2:45pm--------------EUR French Industrial Production m/m
2:45pm--------------EUR French Trade Balance
3:00pm--------------EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
4:30pm--------------GBP Trade Balance
[Whole Day Event]---ALL OPEC Meeting
6:15pm--------------CHF Gov Board Member Hildebrand Speaks
8:30pm--------------CAD Labor Productivity q/q
9:00pm--------------CHF Gov Board Member Jordan Speaks
10:30pm-------------GBP CB Leading Index m/m
10:35pm-------------USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [11-09-2008]
5:00am---NZD Monetary Policy Statement
5:00am---NZD Official Cash Rate
6:45am---NZD FPI m/m
7:50am---JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m
8:00am---NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index
9:00am---AUD MI Inflation Expectations
9:30am---AUD Employment Change
9:30am---AUD Unemployment Rate
2:00pm---EUR German WPI m/m
2:45pm---EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q
4:00pm---EUR ECB Bulletin
4:30pm---GBP BOE Inflation Attitudes
4:45pm---GBP MPC Treasury Committee Hearings
8:30pm---CAD Trade Balance
8:30pm---CAD NHPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Trade Balance
8:30pm---USD Import Prices m/m
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:35pm--USD Natural Gas Storage

Friday [12-09-2008]
2:00am---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
2:45am---USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks
6:45am---NZD Core Retail Sales m/m
6:45am---NZD Retail Sales m/m
7:50am---JPY Final GDP q/q
7:50am---JPY Final GDP Price Index y/y
12:30pm--JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m
2:45pm---EUR French CPI m/m
4:00pm---EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m
5:00pm---EUR Industrial Production m/m
5:00pm---EUR Employment Change q/q
6:30pm---GBP MPC Member Tucker Speaks
8:30pm---CAD Capacity Utilization Rate
8:30pm---USD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD PPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Core PPI m/m
9:55pm---USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
9:55pm---USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
10:00pm--USD Business Inventories m/m
11:00pm--CHF SNB Chairman Roth Speaks
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dollar and Yen Gain as Investors Liquidate Risky Assets

Source: CMS Forex

The dollar rose against most key currencies in volatile trading Friday despite the eight straight monthly job losses and unemployment rate at a 5-year high increasing risks of a worsening US economic slowdown. The dollar and yen were supported by sell-offs in asset and commodity markets as investors liquidated risky assets. The euro fell for a seventh consecutive day as Germany's industrial production declined more than expected. Sterling dropped a seventh week against the greenback. The Australian dollar fell as commodity prices continued their declines. The Canadian dollar rose on better-than-expected employment growth in Canada.

The USD/JPY touched a 7-week low on increased risk aversion as today's US employment report showed continuing weakness in the US labor market. The pair broke its 5-month uptrend but pared losses after oversold US stocks recovered earlier losses.

US nonfarm payrolls fell a more-than-forecast 84,000 in August, an eighth straight monthly drop, data from the Labor Department showed. Revisions to June and July subtracted 58,000 jobs, resulting in a net loss of 142,000. Private payrolls dropped 101,000 in August. The weakest job categories were manufacturing (down 61,000), temps (down 37,000), and retail (down 20,000). The strongest sector was education/health (up 55,000). The unemployment rate unexpectedly surged to 6.1% in August, the highest since 2003, following July's 5.7%. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% m/m, to $18.14 in August, and rose 3.6% y/y, both higher than expected. The average workweek was flat at 33.7 hours. Today's grim employment figures, which included a modest increase in wages, suggest the Federal Reserve will hold its target for the federal funds rate steady at 2% at its September 16 meeting and at least through the end of the year.

The US economy is “stagnant,” Europe is heading to a recession, and central banks will not have much room to lower interest rates amid high inflation, the US Conference Board said. “This is a period of rolling adjustments, that goes from sector to sector, that will keep the U.S. growth rate low in the 1 percent-to-2 percent range for the foreseeable future,” said Gail D. Fosler, Conference Board president. “Europe is in somewhat more peril,” Fosler added. “The tech sector is beginning to weaken and the manufacturing sector, which has really held up, is likely to begin to weaken,” she said. “The U.S. is going to be in a relatively stagnant, relatively slow growth mode for the foreseeable future.”

Dollar Hits YTD Highs, Stocks Plunge, What Happened?

Source: Forex.com

Volatility has ripped through the financial markets with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging 344 points and the US dollar surging to a year to date high against the Euro.With the exception of the dollar's performance against the Japanese Yen, the greenback's strength has been universal.In yesterday's Daily Currency Focus, we said that the dollar could see a near term reversal.That happened briefly with the EUR/USD hitting an intraday high of 1.4545, but once the US stock market started falling, the dollar resumed its rise.Given the drop in equities and bond yields, the only explanation for the divergent move in the currency market is risk aversion.The dollar has once again received a flight to safety boost.The sharp sell-off in carry trades including USD/JPY provides further evidence that risk aversion is behind today's move.

Service sector ISM was stronger than expected, but the leading indicators for non-farm payrolls point to an ugly NFP number.Payroll provider ADP reported more private sector job losses, continuing claims hit a 5 year high while the employment component of service sector ISM sank deeper into contractionary territory.In our Non-Farm Payrolls Preview, we show the correlation between NFP and ISM and talk about why payrolls could have fallen by more than 100k in the month of August.Comments from Federal Reserve officials also gave stock traders further reasons to liquidate.San Francisco Fed President Yellen expects growth to be “subpar” and sluggish in the second half of the year while Dallas Fed President Fisher warned about the government's potential problems in paying retirees their Social Security and Medicare as the biggest threat to the US economy.If the US government does have problems making these payments, then Fisher is absolutely right and the US could be dealing with slower growth for longer than anticipated.

The market is currently expecting non-farm payrolls to drop by -75k and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.7 percent. Of the 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, only 11 expect non-farm payrolls to crack the -100k mark. For traders, this means that -100k is the make it or break it point for the US dollar. If less than -100k jobs were lost last month, the dollar could continue to rise. If more than -100k jobs were lost, expect a reversal in the US dollar.

Dollar Rise - Too Fast, Too Furious?

Source: Daily FX

The month of August is typically characterised by thin markets, rising volatility and quite sharp FX movements. Commercial clients are traditionally conspicuous by their absence at the beginning of the month and speculative clients have free hands.

This August has been no exception and has in fact been packed with rather large moves in major currencies: the USD has gained 5.4% against the EUR, JPY has advanced 4.6%, GBP has lost 2.2% and the AUD has dropped 2.8%. The appreciation of the USD against the EUR has - with good reason - received most attention over the month. In the first half of the month, EUR/USD ended the uptrend that started some six years ago. And it was indeed a sharp reversal.

Some forecasters warned investors "not to stand in the greenback's" way, but the dollar rush abated in the second half of the month with EUR/USD trading around 1.47, albeit surrounded by noticeable fluctuations.

British Pound Slips as U.K. Manufacturing Contracts...

Source: Daily FX

Fundamental Headlines

• Key Index May Overstate Mortgage-Debt Problems – Wall Street Journal
• The Fannie & Freddie Question – Wall Street Journal
• Atticus Hit Hard by Credit Crunch – Financial Times
• Oil Falls on Report Gustav Won’t Speed Up Before Striking Land – Bloomberg
• ECB May Keep Rates at 7-Year High as Recession Looms – Bloomberg

GBPUSD – Manufacturing activity in the U.K. contracted for the fourth consecutive month, heightening recessionary fears for Europe’s second largest economy. The index however, improved slightly to 45.9 from 44.1 in July, but may continue to face downside risks as global demands fade. In a separate report, U.K. mortgage approvals fell to a nine year low of 33K as home prices continued to tumble lower. Amid rampant inflation, instability in the housing and financial sector paired with stalled growth could forced the BoE to support economic activity as the U.K. economy is on the brink of a recession.

EURUSD – Retail sales in Germany fell for the second consecutive month as oil prices peaked to a record high of $147.27 in July. The monthly reading slipped to -1.5% from -1.4% in June, while the yearly figure was unchanged from the previous year. Manufacturing activity in Germany fell to a record low of 49.7 from 50.9, while the Euro-Zone manufacturing PMI contracted for the third consecutive month. The economic outlook for the 15 European nation continues to grow dim, and may lead the ECB to soften their hawkish outlook.

AUDUSD – Stalled growth in the Australian economy has helped to bring down inflation for the first time in a year as the inflation index fell to 4.2% from 4.6% in July. The unexpected fall should help to ease inflationary concerns for the $1 trillion economy, and would allow the RBA to lower the benchmark interest rate from the 12 year high. With the RBA scheduled to set rates tomorrow, market participants have already increased bets for a 25bp rate cut, which may spark increased volatility for the Australian dollar.

EUR/GBP Short-Term Technical Outlook...

Source: DailyFX

Currency Pair: EUR/GBP
Short-Term Bias: Long
Chart: 15 Min Charts

The EUR/GBP has peaked to 0.8136 earlier in the session, triggering an overbought RSI signal in the process. We expect the upward trend to continue this week, but may see the euro-pound fall back to trade within the channel over the next few trading session.

The EUR/GBP continues to hold above the channel, with the uptrend in the 120 SMA remaining intact. Price action looks to be holding range between 0.8130 and 0.8080, and may stay within range for till tomorrow as the US and Canada is offline for the holiday.

As volatility dries up in the US session, the euro-pound may continue to face congestion at its currently level. We expect price action to trade within in the channel over the next few trading session, and will continue to hold a bullish outlook for the pair. The euro may continue its rally to test 0.9200 for resistance, while our short-term outlook suggests that the pair should hold above 0.7750 over the next few months. However, the fundamental event risks scheduled for the next 24 hours may call for a change in our outlook.

Last week, the EUR/GBP gained momentum to break out of its previous range, with price action moving above 0.8000. After gapping earlier in the session, the pound continues to face heavy selling pressures, leading the pair to break above the channel.

The EUR/GBP has peaked to 0.8136 earlier in the session, triggering an overbought RSI signal in the process. We expect the upward trend to continue this week, but may see the euro-pound fall back to trade within the channel over the next few trading session. We will hold a bullish outlook for the pair as the 120 SMI continues to trend upwards, and expect the pair to test 0.8150 for resistance over the next few days. Be sure to check out Jamie’s Technical Outlook for additional information on the major currency pairs.

Ramadhan...

ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com wishes all our Muslim readers and Muslims from all over the world a blessful and safe fasting in the Islamic month of Ramadhan. May Allah bless us with good health and unlimited fortune.

Pease and trade safely everyone...

Warmest Regards,
ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com

My GBP/USD Trade (26-08-2008) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Hello everyone,

Today [26-08-2008], I initiate a short position on the GBP/USD at the price line of 1.8473 at 10:17am (Singapore Time) | 02:17am (GMT).

So, what is the story that I see today? Well, I laid back to watch how the market behave yesterday. Yesterday's price action showed me that market wasn't able to clear above my Weekly Pivot and it formed a candle pattern they will call "Dark Cloud Cover". At the point of my entry at the mentioned price line and time, MAs are down, Stochs are down, Fast MACD is kissing downwards and Slow MACD is neutral.

My Stop Loss was on the conservative side at the price line of 1.8495(-22pips) and Target Profit at 1.8410(63pips) which is near to yesterday's low which is around the price line of 1.8404. Risk : Reward = 22 : 63 = 1 : 2.86.

When market moved in my favour and hovering around 1.8440 area, I shift my Stop Loss to Protective Stop at the price line of 1.8472(1pip).

My Target Profit was hit at 03:14pm (Singapore Time) | 07:14am (GMT), giving me 63pips profit for this trade.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My GBP/JPY Trade (22-08-2008) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Hello everyone,

Today [22-08-2008], my trade on the GBP/JPY. I initiated a long position on this pair at the price line of 203.69 at 10:10am (Singapore Time) | 02:10am (GMT).

Yesterday's price action ended with a rejection and I was looking for a little breather today. So this morning, I was looking at this pair very closely. With my MAs upwards and Fast MACD on the upside and my Stochs are crossing, I initiated an open position at the mentioned price line and time.

My Stop Loss was at 203.45 (-24pips) and Target Profit at 204.50 (81pips). Risk : Reward = 24 : 8 = 1 = 3.38. My Target Profit at 204.50 is just below yeaterday's high, a good minor resistance for today :)

When market gave me around 40pips in the money, I shifted my Stop Loss to Protective Stop at the price line of 203.70 (1pip). Then I went on with my work. My Target Profit has been at at 11:21am (Singapore Time) | 03:21am (GMT), giving me 81pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/JPY Trade (21-08-2008) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Greetings everyone,

Today [21-08-2008], my trade on the USD/JPY. I shorted the pair at the price line of 109.65 at 09:07am (Singapore Time) | 01:07am (GMT). From price action that happened during early morning, market has moved down and cut through my Weekly Pivot plus my MAs are down and market has also moved below my 200ma. It is unable to clear back up and hence, I shorted it at the mentioned price line and time. I played with my "Similar Wave Pattern" analysis to pre-determine possible Target Profit and upon entry, the Fast MACD is sliding down slowly and my Stochs are no where on the upside.

My Stop Loss was at 109.85 (20pips) and Target Profit at 109.10 (55pips). Risk : Reward = 20 : 55 = 1 : 2.5.

As market moved down to around 109.20 area, I shifted my Stop Loss to Protective Stop at 109.65 (0pips) and my Target Profit to 108.95 (70pips). My final shifting was when market reached around 109.05 - 109.10 area, my final shifting of Protective Stop to 109.20 (45pips) and Target Profit to 108.65 (100pips) and I went for my smoke break.

My Target Profit was hit at 02:38pm (Singapore Time) | 06:38am (GMT) while I was having my smoke break, 100pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My GBP/USD Trade (20-08-2008) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Howdy everyone,

My trade today on the GBP/USD. It has been a long wait this week due to market moving stupidly on Monday and Tuesday. Finally, I saw something that is somehow nice :)

I shorted the GBP/USD at the price line of 1.8623 at 03:05pm (Singapore Time) | 07:05am (GMT). What I saw was that, price action movements which cuts through nicely below both MAs with yesterday's high a good minor resistance and at the point of entry, my indicators were on my side. On top of that, I used a little bit of co-relation using EUR/GBP chart to counter my analysis.

My Target Profit was at 1.8540 (83pips) near to yesterday's low and Stop Loss at 1.8647 (24pips). Risk : Reward = 24 : 83 = 1 : 3.45.

I moved my Stop Loss into Protective Stop gradually with the movements of the market and after market has barely hit my Target Profit before going for a breather, my final Protective Stop shifting was around after 07:00pm (Singapore Time) | 11:00pm (GMT) which was at 1.8597 (26pips) as a conservative precaution that the stupidity movements of the market might continue. Then I went out for dinner with my wife.

I just came back from dinner and my Protective Stop was hit at 08:30pm (Singapore Time) | 12:30pm (GMT). 26pips profit for this trade :) More opportunities to come once a clear break has happened :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

U.S. Dollar Could Rally Further As Interest Rate Expectations Move on Its Favor

Source: Daily FX

A Sudden Shift in Interest Rate Expectations has been helping the U.S. dollar

This week, several of the world’s most important central banks announced their interest rate policy. Yet, despite their different economic circumstances, they all decided to keep rates unchanged. In fact, the Federal Reserve kept rates at 2%, the ECB at 4.25%, the BoE at 5% and the RBA at 7.25%. So if there were no major surprises why the U.S. dollar rallied so much during the last two weeks?


The average daily trade volume in the foreign exchange is almost US$ 4 trillion and trying to identify the trigger behind such a sharp dollar appreciation is no easy task. Nonetheless, we think that a significant shift of interest rate expectations in favor of several interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has been the main driver behind the recent strength in the greenback. However, trying to judge which central banks will be more aggressive in 2008/2009 is hard to measure. In this article, we argue that interest rate expectations can be measured by using Libor rates with different maturity. Indeed, by comparing several interest rate term structures across the globe one can have a good idea on how many rate cuts or hikes different central banks have reserved for us in 2008/2009. Judging by the study we did posted below, the U.S. Federal Reserve will be one of the most aggressive central banks and we expect them to increase rates by at least 144 bps in the next 18 months. On the other hand, traders are now pricing a series of rates cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and also by the Reserve Bank of Australia which could make their currencies very vulnerable to a carry trade unwind. But Is This The Dollar Breakout?

High Inflation Could Pressure the Fed and Help the Dollar

Source: Daily FX

In order to keep up with Inflation, we expect the Fed to increase rates by almost 150 bps in the next 18 months. A higher yield could help the U.S. dollar and propel USD/JPY to 120.

This week, the release of inflation figures for several countries is likely to catch the attention of many traders. Indeed, we expect consumer prices to increase to record levels but also to be close to peaking since energy prices are significantly lower than they were in the previous month. In this article, we argue for more dollar strength in the months ahead. Currently, the U.S. dollar offers negative interest rates when adjusted by inflation and the U.S. Federal Reserve could be pressured to increase rates faster than traders had previously expected.

Why inflation matters to currency trading?
Last week, we had several central banks announcing their interest rate decision. Yet, despite their different economic circumstances they all have the same concern. In fact, despite the recent easing in the price of oil, central bankers remain concerned with inflation and second round effects of the spike in energy prices. But why inflation matters to currency trading? Inflation is one of the most important indicators used by central banks to make interest rate decisions and since yield differentials have been the main drivers behind many trends in the currency market, inflation indicators do matter for the forex trader.

Forecast for the U.S. dollar based on Real Interest Rates
Currently, the U.S. dollar offers negative real interest rates because the U.S. Federal Reserve believes there are still some down side risks to growth. In fact, the recent strength in economic activity reflects more the spending of taxes rebates than anything else. Yet, the substantial easing of monetary policy to date should help to rescue the U.S. economy from technical recession and going forward the main concern will be price stability. We expect the Federal Reserve to increase rates by 144 bps in the next 18 months and dollar strength to continue. We expect EUR/USD to trade below 1.45 in 3 months and USD/JPY above 120 in 6 months.

Singapore Dollar Gains On Greenback Weakness, Hong Kong Unemployment Falls To Decade Low

Source: Daily FX

The Singapore dollars strengthen against the dollar after hitting resistance at 1.4195, as the dollar weakened on higher oil and gold prices. The USDHKD would fall to as low as 1.4103 before finding support and consolidating at the 1.4130 price level. Expectations are growing that the MAs will intervene to slow the pace of the local dollar’s appreciation at their October meeting, as the country’s exports continue to slow. This policy action would be contrary to the recommendation of the IMF to allow further appreciation in order to battle rising inflation.

The USDHKD spent the overnight session stuck at 7.8140 as dollar weakness and a lower Hang Seng index offset each other. Meanwhile, unemployment in the country fell to a decade low of 3.2% despite the slowest growth in five months. The strong labor market has supported consumer consumption which beat expectations of 11.0% in June with a print of 11.6%. However, declining exports has slowed growth and may eventually lead to the employment deteriorating.

The economic calendar isn’t providing any event risk for the pair which will leave price action to the broader macro themes of oil and commodity prices. If oil continues to firm the ensuing dollar weakness may see both pairs trade lower throughout the day.

Global Events Calendar [18-08-2008] - [22-08-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+8:00).

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [18-08-2008] - [22-08-2008]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [18-08-2008]
7:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m
3:15pm CHF Retail Sales y/y
5:00pm EUR Trade Balance
8:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases

Tuesday [19-08-2008]
1:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index
6:45am NZD PPI Input q/q
6:45am NZD PPI Output q/q
9:30am AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
[Time Unknown] JPY Overnight Call Rate
2:00pm EUR German PPI m/m
[Time Unknown] JPY BOJ Press Conference
5:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
8:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales m/m
8:30pm USD Building Permits
8:30pm USD PPI m/m
8:30pm USD Core PPI m/m
8:30pm USD Housing Starts
10:00pm USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

Wednesday [20-08-2008]
7:50am JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m
8:30am AUD WMI Leading Index m/m
2:00pm JPY BOJ Monthly Report
4:30pm GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
4:30pm GBP M4 Money Supply m/m
4:30pm GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
6:00pm GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders
8:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm CAD Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm CAD Leading Indicators m/m
10:35pm USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [21-08-2008]
6:45am NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m
7:50am JPY Trade Balance
9:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
9:30am AUD RBA Bulletin
11:00am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y
2:15pm CHF Trade Balance
3:00pm EUR French Manufacturing PMI (p)
3:00pm EUR French Services PMI (p)
3:15pm CHF PPI m/m
3:30pm EUR German Manufacturing PMI (p)
3:30pm EUR German Services PMI (p)
4:00pm EUR Manufacturing PMI (p)
4:00pm EUR Services PMI (p)
4:30pm GBP Retail Sales m/m
4:30pm GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q
5:00pm CHF ZEW Expectations
7:00pm CAD Core CPI m/m
7:00pm CAD CPI m/m
8:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00pm USD Leading Index m/m
10:35pm USD Advance GDP Price Index

Friday [22-08-2008]
7:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
4:00pm EUR Current Account
4:30pm GBP Revised GDP q/q
4:30pm GBP Index of Services 3m/3m
5:00pm EUR Industrial New Orders m/m
10:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My EUR/USD Trade (23-07-2008) --- Position Squared

Hello everyone,

First of all. I would like to apologise for not posting my trades regularly for the past few weeks. I was caught up with a lot of things. Tonight, I am going to post some of my trades, starting with this one :)



On [23-07-2008], I shorted the EUR/USD at the price line of 1.5781 at 9:05am (Singapore Time). Why I shorted this pair is because of price action. Price is dangling at support with strength to punch through it from the momentum created the previous day. To add icing on the cake, my "Advisors" are in my favour as well. Remember, I do not trade bias to my "Advisors". They are plainly my "Advisors" and not my decision maker :) Hence, I waited for a convincing price to enter.

My Stop Loss was at 1.5805 (24pips) and Target Profit at 1.5615 (166pips). Risk : Reward = 24 : 166 = 1 : 6.92.



The next day [24-07-2008], market has move in my favour. There was enough room for me to shift my stop loss and hence, I shifted my Stop Loss into Protective Stop at9:00am (Singapore Time) at the price line of 1.5760 which is 21pips in the money.



The following day [25-07-2008], market has lost a little bit of momentum and I shift my Protective Stop further at 9:05am (Singapore Time) at the price line of 1.5735 which is 46pips.



During the same day at 12:01pm (Singapore Time), I shifted my Protective Stop further to 1.5700 which is 81pips in the money, after the price action is not in my favour and my "Advisors" are indicating it is breathing.



True enough, at 12:05pm (Singapore Time) on the same day of [25-07-2008], my Protective Stop was hit and this gave me 81pips profit :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Global Events Calendar [21-07-2008] - [25-07-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [21-07-2008] - [25-07-2008]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [21-07-2008]
6:45am--------------NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m
[Whole Day Event]---JPY Holiday: Marine Day
7:01am--------------GBP Rightmove House Price Index m/m
9:30am--------------AUD PPI q/q
9:30am--------------AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
11:00am-------------NZD Credit Card Spending y/y
3:15pm--------------CHF PPI m/m
10:00pm-------------USD Leading Index m/m

Tuesday [22-07-2008]
7:50am---JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m
2:15pm---CHF Trade Balance
4:45pm---GBP BOE Governor King Speaks
8:10pm---USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks
8:30pm---CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---CAD Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
10:00pm--USD House Price Index m/m
10:00pm--USD Richmond Manufacturing Index

Wednesday [23-07-2008]
9:30am---AUD CPI q/q
9:30am---AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
2:45pm---EUR French Consumer Spending m/m
4:00pm---EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m
4:30pm---GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
4:30pm---GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals
5:00pm---EUR Industrial New Orders m/m
6:00pm---GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders
7:00pm---CAD Core CPI m/m
7:00pm---CAD CPI m/m
10:35pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [24-07-2008]
2:00am---USD Beige Book
5:00am---NZD Monetary Policy Statement
5:00am---NZD Official Cash Rate
7:50am---JPY Trade Balance
3:00pm---EUR French Manufacturing PMI (p)
3:00pm---EUR French Services PMI (p)
3:30pm---EUR German Manufacturing PMI (p)
3:30pm---EUR German Services PMI (p)
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Expectations Index
4:00pm---EUR Manufacturing PMI (p)
4:00pm---EUR Current Account
4:00pm---EUR Services PMI (p)
4:30pm---GBP Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm--USD Existing Home Sales
10:00pm--USD FOMC Member Geithner Speaks
10:35pm--USD Natural Gas Storage

Friday [25-07-2008]
1:00am---GBP MPC Member Bean Speaks
7:30am---JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y
7:30am---JPY National Core CPI y/y
7:50am---JPY CSPI y/y
4:00pm---EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
4:30pm---GBP Prelim GDP q/q
4:30pm---GBP Index of Services 3m/3m
8:30pm---USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30pm---USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
9:55pm---USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
10:00pm--USD New Home Sales
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

US CPI Rises At Fastest Annual Pace In 17 Years

Source: Daily FX

Consumer prices in the US surged significantly more than expected in June, as the Labor Department's index jumped 1.1 percent during the month, bringing the annual rate up to a more than 17 year high of 5.0 percent. Unsurprisingly, a breakdown of the report shows that energy prices were responsible for the bulk of the rise, as they gained 6.6 percent from a month ago and 24.7 percent from a year earlier, while food costs rose 0.8 percent. What may be most disconcerting to the Federal Reserve, however, was the unexpected increase in core CPI of 0.3 percent during the month and 2.4 percent from a year earlier. As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke noted yesterday that "the currently high level of inflation, if sustained, might lead the public to revise up its expectations for longer-term inflation." Nevertheless, the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates in response due to the looming downside risks to growth and unstable conditions in the financial sector.

US Industrial Production Grows Most In 11 Month

Source: Daily FX

Despite record raw material prices and a generational low in domestic demand, factory activity actually rose at its fastest pace in 11 months through June. The Federal Reserve's Industrial Production survey reported a 0.5 percent pick up in activity last month and a pick up in capacity utilization to 79.9 percent. This is a promising sign for general growth as fears of a recession are still threatening the world's largest economy with consumer spending fading and the housing recession deepening. At the same time, the source of this strength was largely seen in temporary or external components. Export bookings accounted for a generous portion of the pick up in production. Looking deeper into the components, a 0.2 percent improvement in the manufacturing component was largely encouraged by a 5.4 percent jump in auto and parts orders as the supplier strike came to an end. From the sector breakdown, production of consumer goods rose 0.7 percent, business equipment increased 0.2 percent and energy output jumped 1.0 percent. With the housing slump still in full swing, construction dropped 0.9 percent.

Osamex's Quote of the day for Traders and Investors...

Osamex says, "Learn to appreciate a grain of rice then you will appreciate a plate of rice. When you really appreciate a plate of rice then you will appreciate a rice field."

European Inflation Rises To 4%, As Energy Costs Soar

Source: Daily FX

European consume prices rose to 4.0% from 3.7% the month prior on an annualized basis, which is the highest in more than 16 years. The record setting pace of oil has fed rising gasoline and heating costs. The ECB and economist had expected prices to reach these levels, which was the cause for the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate to a seven year high of 4.25%. The regions largest economy Germany saw pries rise 3.4%, which has led to investor confidence falling to a record low in July. The European economy is beginning to whither in the face of the headwinds from the U.S. credit crisis and a global slowdown, which has increased fears that the central bankʼs raising of credit costs will push the economy towards a recession. Therefore, expectations are that the recent rate hike was a single event and that rates will remain on hold the remainder of the year. If growth continues to weaken and inflation pressures begin to ease the next move for the ECB may be to lower rates, despite their price stability mandate.

Dollar Off Lows But Nervousness Persists - Will Oil Help?

Source: Daily FX

A relatively quiet night of consolidation in currency markets tonight as both Euro and Sterling spent most of the early European session basing about the 1.5900 and 2.0000 levels respectively. After making new record highs the EUR/USD dropped sharply in yesterday's North American trade mainly on the collapse in oil and better tone in equities as investors became more comfortable with the GSE rescue plan.

Nevertheless, nervousness persists in the FX market as traders worry about further systemic damage to US financial sector should any other major institutions fail in the near future. Analysts were quick to point out that the rescue of Indy Mac took more than 10% of FDIC capital leaving little room for error if other banks follow suit into insolvency as their mortgage assets depreciate.

The Dollar therefore remains in a precarious position as the markets adopt a state of siege mentality. The greatest fear amongst dollar bulls is that the massive snake lines that greeted the failure of Indy Mac will be repeated not only in California, but nationwide if more regional bank go under. The run on the bank dynamic is one of the most damaging developments for a country's currency as it demonstrates total lack of confidence in the system.

The market will get a glimpse of one measure of confidence today when the TICS data is released at 13:00 GMT. The TICS report is two months back so the data is relatively backward looking and does not reflect the current turmoil in the GSEs but it may still offer a clue as to the appetite of foreign investors for US capital assets. One of the key drivers behind the GSE rescue plan was the fact that Japan and China were major holders of those assets and any markdown in their value would curtail future foreign investment flows into the US which have been critical to the financing of the US trade deficit. Therefore any sharp drop off in the TICs figure could add fuel fire and push the greenback lower toady.

The one positive countervailing force for the dollar has been oil. Yesterday's collapse was one of the major reasons for the buck's recovery and should crude decline further today it may provide a much needed counterbalance to all of the negative news over the past 48 hours. Nevertheless the positive impact of lower crude may have a limited impact. Concern over systemic risk remains the dominant theme of trade in FX and could push the EUR/USD higher if angst over the state of the US economy reaches panic levels once again.

My USD/JPY Trade (15-07-2008) --- Position Squared

*Click on the charts (Before & After) for the enlarged version.

Hello everyone,

I'm busy these days. Apologies for not posting my trades often. 400+pips was made for the month of June 2008.

My trade today on the USD/JPY. For this trade I was a little conservative due to the data release coming out and one of them is of course Fed's chairman's testimony.

I initiated a short positiong at 08:55am (Singapore Time) | 12:55am (GMT) at the price line of 106.02. A continous candle pattern (Falling Three Method) and price action and my indicators to support my analysis.

My Stop Loss was at 106.17 (15pips) and Target Profit was at 105.65 (37pips). Risk : Reward = 15 : 37 = 1 : 2.47.

Target Profit got hit at 04:50pm (Singapore Time) | 08:50am (GMT).

37pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...