My trades for February 2009...

Hello everyone,

These are my trades for February 2009. Click on it for the enlarge image.

Warmest Regards,
Ash Ariffin

My GBP/USD Trade (27-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hey everyone,

My trade on the GBP/USD (27-02-2009).

After how yesterday's price went, my 200ma and Weekly Pivot Point seems to be a strong resistance. I am looking into a little bit of selling today on this pair.

After price action broke the minor support of the morning movements,my MAs are down, Fast MACD is down and my Stochs are down. I placed an order to sell at the price line of 1.4250. My order was filled in like around 20mins at 3:45pm (Singapore Time).

Stop Loss at 1.4285 (35pips) and Target Profit at 1.4175 (75pips). Risk : Reward = 35 : 75 = 1 : 2.14. Why Target Profit at 1.4175? It seems like a good support for the last two days and it is just above today's Pivot S1.

Basically, I didn't look at my trade after I shifted my Stop Loss to entry price during the next hour. When I came back to see on my trade, my Target Profit has been executed at 4:49pm (Singapore Time).

75pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/JPY Trade (24-02-2009) --- Update (Final)

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time



Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hi everyone,

Update from my previous trade.

Link to my previous trade > Click Here.

The course of the price movements. I have since moved my Protective Stop to the price line of 96.60, securing 200pips of profit due to the movements of price today. It is consolidating with a formation that looks like a mini "Head and Shoulder". It is possible that market will go through some correction.

I have been stopped out with my Protective Stop executed at 7:07pm (Singapore Time) with 200pips profit.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/JPY Trade (24-02-2009) --- Position Open

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hi everyone,

My trade on the USD/JPY (24-02-2009).

I am looking for a buy position of all odds on this pair today due to price action for the past few days :)

What made me to look to buy is that in the Weekly chart, there is momentum on the upside with market breaching the 23.6% Fibo Retracement last week. Yesterday, in the Daily chart, a good up trust from the market and looking at how the up trust moved in the Hourly chart, I am putting my odds on looking to buy this pair today.

I opened the buy position at the price line of 94.60 at 10:53am (Singapore Time). It broke the micro trend resistance from the few previous hour. My MAs is healthy, both Fast and Slow MACD pointing upwards and Stochs are healthy as well. Without any hesitation, the trade was opened.

Stop Loss at 94.25 (35pips) and Target Profit at 97.40 (280pips). Risk : Reward = 35 : 280 = 1 : 8. Why 97.40 as my Target Profit? It is the high of 24-11-2008 and it is just below today's Pivot R3.

As of now, I am around 130pips in the money and I have closed half of the position at 95.96 with 136pips profit at 9:35pm (Singapore Time) :) I am letting the other half float. Stop Loss has been shifted to Protective Stop at 95.60 (100pips).

Will definitely update when this trade is fully closed.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/CHF Trade (23-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hello everyone,

My trade on the USD/CHF (23-09-2009).

After how dramatically the market closes last Friday, I was looking forward to such commitment today for continuation. To much disappointment, there weren't any. There was no commitment from sellers in this particular pair of currency.

What did happened is that buyers were fighting the market and a strong price rejection happened and it created a double-bottom chart pattern formation and after than, there was an up close candle which shows buyers commitment. I initiated a long position at the price line of 1.1540 at 4:40pm (Singapore Time). My Stochs is in line with what I saw.

Stop Loss at 1.1510 (30pips) and Target Profit at 1.1630 (90pips). Why 1.1630 as my Target Profit? Using Fibo, this price line is just above the 38.2%, above today's Pivot Point and it is my Weekly Pivot point.

Trade was close when it hit my Target Profit at 6:48pm (Singapore Time). 90pips profit for this trade.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My AUD/USD Trade (19-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time


Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hello people,

My trade on the AUD/USD (19-02-2009).

I was expecting a buy opportunity due to analysis of Daily chart and how yesterday's price movements closes compared to the day before.

So, I initiated a buy position at the price line of 0.6416 at 11:06am (Singapore Time). There was a little risk that the market might be stuck in a range bound trading but I was more confident on the double-bottom, compliment by my MAs, Fast and Slow MACDs and Stochs. My entry price was initiated as close as possible to the MAs.

My Stop Loss was at 0.6386 (30pips) and Target Profit at 0.6480 (64pips). Risk : Reward = 1 : 2.13. Why Target Profit at 0.6480? It is just above today's Pivot R2 and this price line appears to be quite sensitive for the historical price movements in one hour chart.

Shifted Stop Loss to entry price when I was around 30pips in the money. Then to the high of the 7:00am (GMT) candle when 9:00am (GMT) starts.

Target Profit was executed at 6:11pm (Singapore Time). 64pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Sterling Outlook (18-Feb-2009)...

Source: DailyFX.com

The GBP/USD opened in Asia around 1.4240 after a steady US session that followed a volatile London session. Unlike yesterday, the Asian session was extremely quiet today with little in the way of flows. The GBP/USD traded up to 1.4269 at one stage when the USD/JPY led the USD broadly lower, but there was little follow-through and the pairing settled back around the opening 1.4240 level for the balance of the session.

The EUR/GBP grinded a bit higher during the Asian session after a major bank put out a buy recommendation on the cross. The EUR/GBP traded up to 0.8845 after opening the session around 0.8835.

Sentiment towards the USD remains bullish and is likely to continue that way while the deep concerns over the global banking sector persist. The GBP is vulnerable to financial sector concerns and was one of the reasons some are recommending selling the GBP even at these depressed levels.

As we all have witnessed in the recent past, any relief rally in the banking sector can set off a vicious correction higher for the GBP/USD. UK CBI will be released later today.

My USD/JPY Trade (11-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Hey everyone,

My trade on the USD/JPY (11-02-2009).

After the whole day of movements, I see in the charts that this pair was not able to provide any movements downwards. I did not pluck this analysis out of thin air. From the charts, it showed that beginning of the day, it hovered for awhile before breaking downwards continuation but, a big but, it was not able to break below today's Pivot Point S1.

I waited for price action and I went in to initiate a buy position at the price line of 90.088 at 09:37pm (Singapore Time). This trade was initiated with regards to purely on price action (how price hovered above the S1 support and how the trade was entered when it broke the "mini tweezer top" of the hovering price) and ignoring my MAs but my Fast MACD and Stochs was in line. A very risky trade but a well calculated one.

My Stop Loss at 89.7088 (30pips) and Target Profit at 90.54 (46pips). Risk : Reward = 1 : 1.53. I am being very conservative and that is the reason why I have chosen my Target Profit at the price line of 90.54 which is the high of today's morning trading.

Since this trade was placed with a very tight Target Profit and Stop Loss, it was closed at 12:52am (Singapore Time) with my Target Profit executed. A very fast trade done. I rarely do this kind of trades unless I am sure of it.

46pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Negotiations intensify on final stimulus plan...

Source: Mail.com

Negotiators for Congress and the White House have tentatively settled on a $790 billion price tag on President Barack Obama's economic stimulus bill and are working to narrow differences on individual elements of the bill.

After unofficial talks stretching into the late evening on Tuesday, officials announced a formal meeting of negotiators for mid-afternoon in the Capitol as they try to get a bill to Obama's desk for signing by week's end.

Democratic aides said that Obama's negotiating team had prevailed in restoring some lost funding for school construction projects during talks Tuesday, and had also increased aid to state governments above the $39 billion approved in a compromise with a handful of Senate GOP moderates.

Obama's "Making Work Pay" tax credit would be reduced from $500 per worker to $400, with couples eligible for an $800 credit, instead of $1,000, said a Democratic aide close to the talks. This aide spoke on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are private.

Earlier Tuesday, the Senate sailed to approval of its $838 billion economic stimulus bill, but with only three moderate Republicans signing on and then demanding the bill's cost go down when the final version emerges from negotiations.

Negotiators initially were working with a target of about $800 billion for the final bill, lawmakers said. But GOP moderate Arlen Specter, R-Pa., said Tuesday night on MSNBC's "Hardball" that he was insisting on a figure at around $780 billion.

Baucus had said earlier that $35.5 billion to provide a $15,000 homebuyer tax credit, approved in the Senate last week, would be cut back. There was also pressure to reduce a Senate-passed tax break for new car buyers, according to Democratic officials.

Asked about the timing of a final deal, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs on Wednesday cautiously said "I don't want to disrupt the delicateness by laying down anything or predicting." But he told The Associated Press that negotiators were "making good progress."

"Time's growing short," said Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, as she walked into the latest in a series of meetings with a small group of Senate moderates whose votes are essential to passage of the bill.

Wednesday's meeting built on a series of negotiations Tuesday in which White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and other top Obama aides met in the Capitol with Democratic leaders as well as moderate senators from both parties whose support looms as crucial for any eventual agreement.

House Democratic leaders promised to fight to restore some of $16 billion for school construction cut by the Senate. Those funds could create more than 100,000 jobs, according to Will Straw, an economist at the liberal Center for American Progress.

In another development, Obama announced Wednesday that Caterpillar's chief executive told him the company will rehire some of the 22,000 workers it laid off last month, if the stimulus bill passes. The heavy equipment maker can be expected to benefit as highway construction funds begin to flow.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., acknowledged Wednesday that finding an agreement on differences over tax cuts and aid to states and localities will be difficult.

"We're going to have to resolve those differences. Simply talking about what we need to do is not going to be very effective if we don't do it," he said in an interview on the Fox News Channel.

The moderate senators -- Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine and Specter -- are demanding that the final House-Senate compromise resemble the Senate measure, which devotes about 42 percent of its $838 billion in debt-financed costs to tax cuts, including Obama's signature $500 tax credit for 95 percent of workers, with $1,000 going to couples.

The $820 billion House measure is about one-third tax cuts.

Collins said last week she won't vote for any final bill exceeding $800 billion in spending and tax cuts. Specter warned that the Senate bill must stay "virtually intact."

The GOP moderates also want the final bill to retain a $70 billion Senate plan to patch the alternative minimum tax, or AMT, for one year. The provision would make sure 24 million families won't get socked with unexpected tax bills during the 2010 filing season.

The AMT was designed 40 years ago to make sure wealthy people pay at least some tax, but it is updated for inflation each year to avoid tax increases averaging $2,300 a year. Fixing the annual problems now allows lawmakers to avoid difficult battles down the road, but economists say the move won't do much to lift the economy.

House leaders are tempering expectations that they'll restore many of the cuts.

"You cannot allow the perfect to be the enemy of the effective and of the necessary, and we will not," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

While they're fighting to preserve cuts to Obama priorities, Specter is fighting to preserve an enormous $10 billion increase for the National Institutes of Health, while Collins obtained $870 million for community health centers in talks last week.

World stocks fall on skepticism over US bank plan...

Source: Mail.com

World stock markets were mostly lower Wednesday following a steep sell-off on Wall Street, as investors reacted with skepticism to the U.S. government's latest plan to rescue the ailing financial industry with as much as $2 trillion in funding.

By noon in mainland Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was down 0.04 percent at 4,211.30 and France's CAC 40 slipped 0.3 percent at 3,013.28. Germany's DAX scraped into positive territory and was up 0.1 percent at 4,511.95.

Across Europe, bank stocks dragged down market indexes. Credit Suisse dropped as much as 8.3 percent after Switzerland's second biggest bank reported a fourth-quarter net loss of 6 billion Swiss francs ($5.61 billion), much worse than markets were expecting, as both asset management and investment banking lost money amid the financial turmoil.

Nearly ever major market in Asia retreated, further hurt by new figures showing China's exports plunged 17.5 percent in January -- the sharpest drop in more than a decade.

As in the U.S., investors across Asian and Europe questioned whether the revamped bailout program, unveiled Tuesday by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, would be enough to absorb the bad assets saddling bank balance sheets and free up frozen credit markets for consumers and businesses.

"It's fair to say that the latest version of the bailout plan in the U.S. was greeted with some disappointment, simply because there was a complete lack of detail which was what investors were hoping for," said Richard Hunter, head of UK equities at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers in London. "Certainly in drawing a line once and for all over toxic assets, the markets will be waiting for further detail from the U.S. authorities."

He added that disappointed investors had been "going back to more risk averse instruments, such as U.S. Treasuries and gold."

Geithner said the plan to get trillions of dollars in financing flowing through the world's largest economy was urgently needed as part of the government's effort to stave off "catastrophic failure" of institutions. A centerpiece involves the government teaming with the private sector to buy up to $1 trillion in souring assets from financial firms. A separate lending program would be expanded to as much as $1 trillion from $200 billion for consumers and businesses.

But officials were short on specifics about how exactly the public-private partnership might work, analysts said.

Garry Evans, a chief Asian equity strategist with HSBC in Hong Kong, called the plan "muddled." He said the government was skirting around what many investors have already concluded: that the U.S. may have to nationalize the banks for a period.

"They have still philosophically backed away from the ultimate conclusion, which is the government will have to take over financial institutions," he said. "Philosophically that's quite hard for the U.S. government to admit, but the history of banking crises shows that is what governments usually do."

Not even the colossal amounts of money announced in the U.S. are likely to make up the funding shortfall created by the risky mortgage securities and other distressed assets banks are holding, said Paul Schulte, a chief Asia equity strategist at Nomura International in Hong Kong.

The financial hole could be as big as $4 trillion, but U.S. officials have yet to fully explain the scope of the problem, he said.

"The problem is much larger than people thought and the solutions to this much larger problem are still not coherent," Schulte said. "The plan is absolutely a step in the right direction, but we have like 45 more steps to go."

While recouping some of their losses, most Asian markets closed down. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng tumbled 341.43 points, or 2.5 percent, to 13,539.21, while South Korea's Kospi lost 8.69, or 0.7 percent, to 1,190.18. Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday.

Elsewhere, benchmarks in Australia and India fell 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent.

In mainland China, Shanghai's main stock measure sank about 0.2 percent in a choppy session after news of last month's fall in exports, the third straight month of declines.

The collapse in global demand for Chinese textiles, toys and other goods are devastating export-dependent coastal areas. The figures add to the threat of more job losses and increase pressure on Beijing to boost slumping economic growth.

U.S. stock futures pointed to a slightly higher start after markets plummeted the day before as investors soured on the financial rescue. Dow futures were up 0.6 percent at 7,918 and Standard and Poor's futures were up 0.6 percent at 831.

On Tuesday, the Dow industrials fell 381.99, or 4.62 percent, to 7,888.88. Broader stock indicators also tumbled, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index down 42.73, or 4.91 percent, to 827.16. It was the biggest drop for the index since the Obama inauguration on Jan. 20.

In oil, light sweet crude for March delivery rose 44 cents to $37.99 a barrel in European trade. The contract fell $2.01 to settle at $37.55 overnight.

My USD/CHF Trade (09-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Hello everybody,

My first trade for the week. Pair chosen is the USD/CHF. Why this particular pair? It is because from last week's close, it was unable to clear above 1.1714 and market didn't have any momentum left on the upside. So, for this morning, I had been looking for a sell for this pair.

To be honest, I didn't look at the charts the whole of today because I want to refrain myself from unnecessary trading and on top of that, I had something to attend to. When I came home around 05:00pm (Singapore Time), I saw market had an upward move but it was unable to sustain with the high of 1.1677. It is also unable to break today's Pivot Point level at 1.1657.

At that point of time, I was at the right place at the right time because my MAs are down, Long MACD is down and Stochs was crossing down. I finally, initiate a short position at the price line of 1.1624 at 07:24pm (Singapore Time) after I was convince and sure of everything I see in the charts. Why do I need the extra convincing work? It is because I am deciding whether to or not to break my trading rules. Price is approaching my Weekly Pivot line and today's Pivot Point S1 but the chart pattern of a lower high and price action movements gives me the extra confidence.

My Stop Loss at 1.1654 (30pips) and Target Profit at 1.1510 (114pips). Risk : Reward = 30 : 114 = 1 : 3.8. Why my Target Profit at that price? It is above today's Pivot Point S2 which happens to be a good support in the daily charts. With what I've analyse, I didn't want to push my luck.

Shortly after placing my trade, I went out for dinner with my wife and run a few errands. I came home around 11:20pm (Singapore Time). My trade has been closed with my Target Profit executed at 10:24pm (Singapore Time).

114pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My AUD/USD Trade (03-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Hey everyone,

My trade today on the AUD/USD.

Initiated a buy position at 02:39pm (Singapore Time). Expecting a continuation from the market after upward movement in the morning. Although at my point of entry, my Stochs are turning down but my MAs are above, Long and Fast MACD are above. Plus market momentum was dieing off.

Initiated a buy position at the price line of 0.6364. Stop Loss at 0.6334(30pips) and Target Profit at 0.6415(51pips) which is near to today's high and it seems like a strong resistance level. Risk : Reward = 30 : 51 = 1 : 1.7.

As priced moved higher, around 20pips in the money. I had decided to shift my Stop Loss to Protective Stop at entry price. Being very conservative.

This trade was closed at my entry price at 05:23pm (Singapore Time). 0pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/JPY Trade (02-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Hi everyone,

I apologise for not posting any of my trades for quite sometime, the reason being, I felt lazy :P Hahaha! At any point of time, any trader will always have the highest tendency to feel lazy. On top of that, whenever I am lazy to post my trades, I will not post at all because I do not like doing things half-way. When I do it, I want to give my best.

Anyway, let's start. By looking at how market ends last week, I told myself this week will be quite tricky. Believe me, I woke up at 7am (Singapore Time), today, 02-02-2009, on a Monday morning to kick start my analysis and to see how the Asian Indices and Stock market were behaving.

Early morning, Nikkei 225, had a negative opening and and it stayed that way the whole morning. With this, I switch to USD/JPY chart to monitor what is and what will happen. According to my chart (attached image), the daily pivot point was holding up quite well and after the down close at the 3am (GMT Time) candle, I have set my mind to be on a sellers side of the story and because my Weekly Pivot has been breached on the down side.

I initiate a short position at 3:47pm (Singapore Time). A minor support line just below the Weekly Pivot has been breached and I waited to execute my mentioned trade at the price line of 89.49. With Moving Averages on the downside, my Long MACD is down and my Stochs decides to turn back on the downside. Stop Loss at 89.79 (30pips) and Target Profit at 88.85 (64pips). Risk : Reward = 30 : 64 = 1 : 2.13. Reason for my target profit, being there is a double-bottom chart formation under Weekly Chart, I do not want to push my luck too far :P I am a conservative trader. Hence, my target profit was placed at the price line of 88.85 which is just above my Weekly Pivot for last week and coincidentally it is near to Daily Pivot Support 2.

As price moved lower and closes at the price line of 89.35 at the end of the hour, I shifted my Stop Loss to Protective Stop at entry price and as price goes lower and the Daily Pivot Support 1 has been breached, I shifted my Protective Stop to 10pips in the money.

This trade was closed at 05:02pm (Singapore Time) when my Target Profit was hit. 64pips profit for this trade.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

US ECON: Dec Consumer Spending Down 1.0%, Core PCE Unchanged...

Source: DailyFX.com

Consumer spending fell more than expected in December, by 1.0%, while the Fed's preferred measure of inflation was flat for the month and hit a five-year low 1.7% over the last 12 months. Consumer spending has now fallen for six straight months, the first such even since the Commerce Department began tracking the data in 1959.

For calendar year 2008, personal spending rose just 3.6%, the smallest gain since 1961. After adjusting for inflation, real consumer spending fell 0.5%, consistent with the observation in Friday's Q4 GDP report.

On top of December's 1.0% drop in consumer spending, Commerce today also revised November spending lower to a 0.8% decline, from the 0.4% decline it initially reported. Economists were expecting a 0.9% drop in December (IFR called it correctly at 1.0%).

Personal income fell 0.2%, better than the 0.4% decline economists were expecting. But Commerce revised November's decline in personal income to a 0.4% drop from the 0.2% drop it first reported. Disposable personal income fell 0.2% in December, but after adjusting for inflation and taxes, real disposable income rose 0.3%.

Inflation as measured by the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which excludes food and energy, was flat in December as expected. The core PCE index has been flat since October, though slightly negative for the last two months when taken out to three significant digits. The headline PCE price index fell 0.5%.

The core PCE "deflator" is up 1.7% over the last 12 months, just under the 1.9% gain expected. That's the lowest 12-month gain in core PCE since January 2004.

Private employers paid their workers $23.5 bln less in December than they did in November. Payrolls were down in all categories except the public sector, where government wage and salary disbursements rose $2.3 bln.

The personal savings rate for December was 3.6%, the highest since May 2008. The personal savings rate has been above 1.0% in seven of the last eight months, and has averaged about 2.5% over that period. We noted in our preview of today's data that a fundamental shift in consumer spending is underway that could take a decade to mature.

My trades for January 2009...

Hello everyone,

These are my trades for January 2009. Click on it for the enlarge image.

Warmest Regards,
Ash Ariffin