Announcement - Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Hi everyone,

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year in advance! I am going for a holiday and ForexNewsPaper will stop posting for the festive season till 2011 :)

I am closing my books for the year 2010. 2010 has been one hell of a trading year, looking forward for more in 2011 =^_^= Hope everyone had it good as well.

For those who are still keeping their books open, trade safely.

Finally, remember. When you party, please do not drink and drive. Up keep your social responsibility =]

Global Economic Calendar (17-Dec-2010)

Global Economic Calendar for 17th December 2010

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Fed Signals Stronger Economy Won't Slow $600 Billion Stimulus

Federal Reserve policy makers indicated that signs of economic strength won’t deter them from pumping money into the financial system so long as unemployment remains elevated.

The Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday after its final meeting of 2010 that growth is “insufficient to bring down unemployment” and inflation has “continued to trend lower.” U.S. central bankers affirmed a plan to buy $600 billion of bonds through June and renewed their pledge for an “extended period” of low interest rates.

Stocks climbed and Treasuries fell as continued Fed stimulus and better-than-forecast retail sales boosted the outlook for growth in the coming year. Policy makers led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke are defying Republican criticism that their policy will fuel inflation and asset price bubbles to focus on cutting an unemployment rate that has stayed above 9.4 percent since May 2009.

Global Economic Calendar (16-Dec-2010)

Global Economic Calendar for 16th December 2010.

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

***Note - US Unemployment claim at 9:30pm.

Global Economic Calendar (15-Dec-2010)

Global Economic Calendar for 15th December 2010

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

US consumer recovery...

Sales at U.S. retailers rose more than forecast in November as holiday shopping got under way, a sign consumers will play a bigger role in the recovery.

Purchases increased 0.8 percent, following a 1.7 percent gain in October that was larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 0.6 percent rise. Excluding autos, gasoline and building materials, which are the figures used to calculate gross domestic product, sales climbed 0.9 percent, the most since August.

Customers snapped up discounts at chains like Target Corp. and Macy’s Inc. during the Thanksgiving weekend, the traditional kick-off to the busiest sales season of the year. Even as the world’s largest economy gains momentum heading into 2011, high unemployment and the risk of a prolonged drop in prices remain concerns for Federal Reserve policy makers meeting today.

The holiday-shopping “season got off to a really solid start,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, who correctly forecast the increase in sales. “There’s no question this will be the strongest quarter for consumer spending since before the recession. The economy has pretty good momentum going into the new year.”

India's inflation figure.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on Tuesday that India's headline inflation is expected to ease to 6 percent by March.

India's (WPI) wholesale price index rose to an annual 7.48 percent in November, as showed by government data.

The figure compared with the median forecast for a 7.48-percent rise in a Reuters poll and was lower than the annual rise of 8.58 percent in October.

The Indian central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, is widely expected to hold rates at its policy review scheduled to be held on Thursday.

Global Economic Calendar (14-Dec-2010)

Global Economic Calendar for 14th December 2010

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (13-Dec-2010)

Global Economic Calendar for 13th December 2010

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (+GMT8:00)

Well done Australia?

Australian employers last month added more than double the number of workers economists had forecast, driving up the local dollar against all other Group of 10 currencies and propelling the nation’s stocks higher.

The number of people employed gained 54,600 from October, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. That compares with the median forecast for a 20,000 increase in a Bloomberg News survey of 26 economists. The jobless rate fell to 5.2 percent from 5.4 percent a month earlier.

A stronger labor market may help bolster consumer spending after the Australian economy expanded in the third quarter at the slowest pace in almost two years. Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens this week left interest rates unchanged at 4.75 percent, citing few signs of near-term inflation pressure.

“The labor market is the driving force in the economy,” John Honan, chief economist at Ausbil Dexia Ltd. in Sydney, said before the report.

The number of full-time jobs advanced 55,100 in November and part-time employment was little changed, falling by 400, today’s report showed. Australia’s participation rate, which measures the labor force as a percentage of the population over 15 years old, increased to 66.1 percent in November from 65.9 percent a month earlier, it showed.

Yo Obama! Reducing pressure by tax cuts?

President Barack Obama’s agreement to prolong Bush-era income-tax cuts may reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to extend its $600 billion bond-purchase program while spurring U.S. economic growth.

Obama’s deal with congressional Republicans may raise gross domestic product next year by as much as half a percentage point to about 3.1 percent, said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Tom Porcelli, a senior economist at RBC Capital Markets Corp. in New York, is raising his growth forecast for 2011 by one point, also to 3.1 percent.

The agreement goes beyond what economists were expecting by including a 2 percent cut in payroll taxes, which fund Social Security and Medicare. The proposal also sets the estate tax at a top rate of 35 percent, extends aid for the long-term unemployed by 13 months and would allow companies next year to deduct the full cost of investments in equipment.

“I think it does reduce the odds that the Fed does more purchases,” Feroli said. “You’re going to have a pretty nice increase in disposable income and that should lift consumer spending.”

Global Economic Calendar (09-Dec-2010)

Global Economic Calendar for 9th December 2010

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

*Note: 9:30pm (US Data: Unemployment Claims)

Global Economic Calendar (07-Dec-2010)

Global Economic Calendar for 7th December 2010

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

What's up Uncle Ben?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the economy is barely expanding at a sustainable pace and that it’s possible the Fed may expand bond purchases beyond the $600 billion announced last month to spur growth.

“We’re not very far from the level where the economy is not self-sustaining,” Bernanke said in an interview broadcast yesterday by CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes” program. “It’s very close to the border. It takes about 2.5 percent growth just to keep unemployment stable and that’s about what we’re getting.”

Bernanke, in a rare appearance on a nationally broadcast news program, defended the Fed’s efforts to prop up a recovery so weak that only 39,000 jobs were created in November. The unemployment rate last month rose to 9.8 percent, the highest level since April, the Labor Department said on Dec. 3, three days after the Bernanke interview was taped. Republican lawmakers have said the Fed’s policy of “quantitative easing” may do little to help unemployment and may fuel inflation.

Global Economic Calendar (06-Dec-2010)

Global Economic Calendar for 6th December 2010.

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Trade Done (29/Nov/2010 - 3/Dec/2010)

Sharing my trades done for last week (29/Nov/2010 till 3/Dec/2010)

To be honest. This week's trade was quite stressful for me due to a blunder I did last week. Had to cover last week's losses which amounts to -47pips. The losses I made the week before was a stupid error and it is really an unacceptable error for a trader. I forgot to put my stop loss which wiped out pips gained :( Grrrr....

29/Nov/2010 - 3/Dec-2010 has been a good week, 161.3pips :) Let's see how 6/Dec/2010 - 10/Dec/2010 turns out to be like :)

My trades for the recent week as per below. Time is with respect to US Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Canadian Bank fall...

Canadian bank stocks fell after Royal Bank said it earned 84 cents a share in the fourth quarter, excluding certain items, trailing the average analyst estimate by 17 percent.

Royal Bank dropped 5 percent, the most intraday in six months, to C$52.95. Bank of Montreal, the country’s fourth- largest lender by assets, declined 1.1 percent to C$60.17. Bank of Nova Scotia, the No. 3 bank, advanced 1.4 percent to C$54.73 after reporting earnings that topped the average analyst forecast by 2.5 percent.

Canadian Oil Sands slumped 7.4 percent to C$26.31 after saying it expects to declare a quarterly dividend of 20 cents a share next month. The company’s last three shareholder payouts have been 50 cents a unit, and Bloomberg analysts had forecast a dividend of 35 cents a share for next quarter. Analysts at Bank of Montreal and UBS AG cut their rating on Canadian Oil Sands units.

Western Coal Corp., which mines in Canada and the U.S., jumped 11 percent to a record C$11.42 after agreeing to an C$11.50-a-share takeover offer from Walter Energy Inc. Teck Resources Inc., Canada’s largest coal and base-metals producer, climbed for a fifth day, rallying 1.4 percent to C$54.80.

Does US Payroll increase act as an indicator for economy in 2011???

An increase in November payrolls probably pushed U.S. job gains past the 1 million mark for the year as the world’s largest economy strengthened heading into 2011, economists said before a report today.

Employment increased by 150,000 last month, according to the median forecast of 87 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, bringing the rise so far this year to 1.02 million. The advances haven’t been large enough to bring down unemployment, which held at 9.6 percent, according to the survey median.

Another report may show service industries, which account for almost 90 percent of the economy, grew last month at the fastest pace since May as more jobs and rising wages boosted holiday sales at retailers like J.C. Penney Co. and Gap Inc. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is concerned joblessness will be slow to retreat, explaining why policy makers announced a new round of monetary stimulus.

conomists’ projections for the jobless rate, which has been at 9.6 percent since August, varied from 9.4 percent to 9.7 percent. November would be the 16th month of joblessness at 9.5 percent or higher, the longest such stretch since records began in 1948.

Job losses in 2008 and 2009 totaled 8.4 million, pushing unemployment up from 5 percent in December 2007, as the worst recession since the 1930s took its toll.

Fed policy makers last month began buying Treasury securities as part of a plan to pump as much as $600 billion more into the financial system in a bid to keep interest rates low and spur growth. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has been among those saying the recovery has been too slow, keeping unemployment too high and leading to a deceleration in inflation that raises the risk of deflation, or sustained and damaging price decreases.

Global Economic Calendar (03-Dec-2010)

Global Economic Calendar for 3rd December 2010.

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+08:00)

Take Note of:

1) 9:30pm > USD Non-Farm Payroll

US - Where are the jobs???

Indicator that the labour market will take time to improve after applications to begin receiving unemployment benefits in the U.S. increases more than forecast last week.

Unemployment claims increased to 436,000, a jump by 26,000 in the week ended Nov. 27, Labour Department figures showed today in Washington. The less-volatile four week moving average fell to the lowest level since August 2008. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance has increased and those on extended payments also jumped.

After slowing the pace in November, companies may be on the cusp of ramping up the hiring necessary to further uplift consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. A Labour Department report tomorrow may show employers added 145,000 workers last month and the unemployment rate held at 9.6 percent.

Global Economic Calendar (02-Dec-2010)

Global Economic Calendar for 2nd December 2010

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+08:00)

- Take note of USD's data > Unemployment Claims at 9:30pm.

What do you have for us, Joaquin Almunia?

Around 1.1 Trillion Euros of state loans or guarantees last year has been used by banks in the 27 nation in Europe which was stated by the commission today. The Europe’s antitrust agency that checks whether subsidies distort competition in the region has granted approval for the measures as part of its response to the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.

European policymakers are giving their best to wean banks off government assistance to avoid harming competition. Joaquin Almunia, European Union’s competition commissioner extended the crisis rules into 2011 and informing reporters that he hoped to end them in a year’s time or “when normal conditions come back.” He also said that he could see new state aid guidelines for the financial industry starting on 1st January 2012.

Trades Done (30-Nov-2010)

Like before, once in awhile I will be sharing some of my trades done here in ForexNewsPaper blog.

Following are my trades done for 30th November 2010. The time are with respect to Eastern US time. Which is currently 13hours lagging from Singapore Time.

Total pips reaped yesterday was 79pips.

Global Economic Calendar (01-Dec-2010)

Global Economic Calendar for 01st December 2010

**Time is respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

What is going on today?

The Euro fell below $1.30 against the Greenbacks for the first time in more than 10 weeks as investors shunned riskier assets amid speculation Europe’s debt crisis will broaden and as unemployment in the region touched a 12-year high.

The JPY reached its strongest level since 15th September versus the Euro amid speculation China will put in more effort to cool its economy. The CHF and Greenbacks also rose versus major peers as Portuguese, Italian and Spanish government bonds slumped, encouraging demand for a refuge, and data showed U.S. home-price increases rose less than forecast in September.

Global Economic Calendar (30-Nov-2010)

Global Economic Calendar for 30th November 2010

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Can Euro hold it???

The declination of Euro reached 1 percent against the Greenbacks and 0.8 percent per JPY. CHF rose 1 percent against the Euro and it advanced against 14 of its 16 main counterparts.

The Italian 10-year debt yield advanced 15 basis points to 4.58 percent as the government auctioned 6.8 billion euros of bonds due in 2013, 2017 and 2021. Credit-default swaps on Spain climbed 24 basis points to 247 while contracts on Portugal increased 36.5 basis points to 538.5, according to CMA, a data provider. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments increased six basis points to a record 194.

Irish bonds fell, erasing earlier gains, sending the extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year Irish bonds instead of benchmark German bunds six basis points higher, widening for the seventh day. The cost of default swaps on Irish government debt rose four basis points to 602, while contracts on Greece dropped 21 basis points to 951, according to CMA.

Global Economic Calendar (29-Nov-2010)

Global Economic Calendar for 29th November 2010
**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

What is happening to the Loonie???

The Loonie (CAD) weakened the most in more than a month against the Greenbacks as heightened concern about Europe’s debt woes and conflict between North and South Korea increased demand for assets considered havens.

Loonie was among four of the 16 most-traded currencies that performed the worst against Greenbacks on 27th November 2010. Loonie and its commodity-linked peers in Australia and New Zealand also dropped as resource prices declined on speculation that the Chinese will increase borrowing costs further.

From the attached chart of USD/CAD (Weekly) as of 27th Nov 2010 at 4:40am(Singapore Time). After the resistance at the Triple Top, there was a strong downside movements but it appears to be slowing down with current support around 0.9950 area. If we are looking on the upside movements of if there is any, we can look at Fibo 23.6% for 1st resistance followed by Fibo 38.2%. Any higher than this, we would need more confirmation and market commitment because frankly, I still do not trust the Greenbacks just yet.

Revival of ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com

It has come to a decision that the revival of ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com will be effective as of 27th November 2010.

The author have decided to revive this blog with emails demands from readers of ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com

Regards,
ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com

Thank you Ricky for your feedback...

Anonymous Ricky @ forex trading said...

I think you should post something about forex in this blog. You were posting the good information that we all need. Post it monthly or when you have time.
- 7:39 PM



Blogger Ash Ariffin said...

Hi Ricky! Thank you for your comments and interest on my postings. It is not that I have stopped posting, only that it has shifted to Facebook :)

I thank you for your feedback and will think about it on whether to revive posting on this blog.
- 9:07 AM

100% shifted to FaceBook...

Hello people,

I apologise for "Missing In Action" for the longest time. The truth is, I did not go "MIA", I have shifted to Facebook which is easier for me to share.

Feel free to add me in Facebook > Search for "Ash Ariffin" and request to add. Do not forget to write message "From ForexNewsPaper".

Warmest Regards,
Ash Ariffin

P.S: This blog will be kept active for memory sake :)