Global Economic Calendar (01-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 01st March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Saudi Stocks Drop to Nine-Month Low, Leading Mideast, on Region's Unrest

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark stock index plunged to a nine-month low, leading a drop in Middle East markets, on concern clashes in Libya that caused oil prices to surge to a more than two-year high will stall a global recovery.

Al-Rajhi Bank, the kingdom’s largest publicly traded lender by market value, dropped 5.2 percent and Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the world’s largest petrochemicals maker, tumbled to the lowest since October. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slid a 10th day, slumping 5 percent to 5,950.64, the lowest since June 6, at the 3:30 p.m. close in Riyadh. The measure has lost 11 percent since Tunisia’s former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled the country amid protests that spurred similar uprisings in nations across the region. Oman’s measure decreased 2.8 percent as protests erupted in the sultanate.

“With no clear end to the geo-political turmoil in the region, local investors are erring on the side of caution,” said Amro Halwani, senior equity sales trader at Shuaa Capital PSC in Riyadh. “The regional uncertainty, with Libya this week’s reason to sell, has pushed fundamentals out of the picture. The surge in oil is an ongoing threat of a possible derailing in the global economic recovery, and gave investors a reason to move away from riskier assets.”

The United Nations Security Council voted to freeze the foreign assets of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi and four aides and to bar them from traveling, in the broadest international effort to halt the attacks. Protests calling for the ouster of Qaddafi have been met with a violent crackdown. Qaddafi has bolstered defenses in the capital, Tripoli, and launched counter-strikes against opponents who have seized much of the rest of the country.

Global Economic Calendar (28-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 28th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

U.S. Government Shutdown Looms as Lawmakers Deadlock

A U.S. government shutdown looms after lawmakers deadlocked yesterday over a Republican proposal to cut $4 billion as part of a budget measure needed to keep federal agencies running.

House Republicans are working on a plan, slated for a vote next week, that would attach cuts to a bill funding the government through mid-March. That was immediately rejected by Senate Democrats, who are demanding a 30-day extension that would keep budgets at their current levels.

Lawmakers, who return to Washington next week from their Presidents Day recess, will have just days to find agreement, because the spending measure now keeping agencies in business expires March 4. Without agreement, the government will shut down.

“Americans understand we need to stop the spending binge in Washington to create a better environment for job creation,” said House Speaker John Boehner, an Ohio Republican. “So I ask Senator Reid, with all due respect: what are you willing to cut?”

Jon Summers, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, called the proposal a “non-starter” because it would amount to phasing in the $61 billion in budget cuts passed last week by the House.

“This isn’t a compromise,” said Summers. “This bill would simply be a two-week version of the reckless measure the House passed last weekend. It would impose the same spending levels in the short term as their initial proposal does in the long term, and it isn’t going to fool anyone.”

Qaddafi Holds Tripoli as Eastern Cities Fall to Opponents

Opponents of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi consolidated control over cities in the oil-rich east while he clamped down on Tripoli, using tanks to block highways and security forces to attack residents, witnesses said.

Foreign governments began discussing possible intervention and stepped up efforts to extract their citizens from what fleeing Egyptians said is turning into a bloodbath. Egyptians returning through a Libyan checkpoint now in the hands of Qaddafi’s opponents told of his supporters, most of them foreign mercenaries, attacking anyone in the capital who was on the streets.

“It’s a massacre in there,” Mohamed Yehia, 23, said today after entering the Egyptian border town of Salloum. “He is crazy. The world must know what he’s doing to his people.”

The unrest in Africa’s third-biggest oil producer sent crude advancing for a sixth day, with Brent reaching a 30-month high of almost $120 in London. Stocks slid, with the Stoxx 600 capping its longest losing streak in almost five months. Markets are responding to concern that crude supplies may be further affected if the struggle against Qaddafi becomes more protracted or violent, possibly leading to civil war. Barclays Capital estimated that about 1 million barrels of daily oil production may have been cut.

Orders for U.S. Durable Goods Increase on Surge in Aircraft

Orders for U.S. durable goods climbed in January as demand for aircraft rebounded after plunging the prior month.

Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years rose 2.7 percent after a 0.4 percent drop in December that was smaller than previously estimated, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Orders excluding transportation equipment unexpectedly dropped, reflecting a recurring pattern of declines in capital goods in the first month of a quarter.

Manufacturers from Intel Corp. to Navistar International Corp. are forecasting rising demand as firms in the U.S. and abroad ramp up investment. While factories remain a mainstay of the recovery, limited improvement in the labor and housing markets helps explain why the Federal Reserve is forging ahead with a plan to bolster the economy.

“The manufacturing sector continues to be a main driver of the economy,” said John Herrmann, a senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Markets LLC in Boston. “We see a more moderate period of growth” for factories in coming months, he said.

Another report showed fewer Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment insurance last week, indicating an improving labor market. Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 22,000 to 391,000 in the week ended Feb. 19, according to figures from the Labor Department.

Global Economic Calendar (25-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 25th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Temporary No Posting...

Hi everyone. My apology for not posting anything since Monday (21-Feb-2011). I am not feeling well, down with Stomach Flu, countless times of shitting and fever.

Postings on this blog will resume as per normal as soon as I am up and running again.

Sorry.

Dubai Shares Drop as Mideast Unrest Sparks Risk Aversion; Emaar, Zain Fall

Middle East shares slumped, sending Dubai’s benchmark stock index down the most this month, on concern political unrest in the region may spread.

Emaar Properties PJSC, builder of the world’s tallest skyscraper, dropped 4.7 percent. Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC, the United Arab Emirates’ biggest Shariah-compliant lender, fell the most since November. The DFM General Index retreated 3.7 percent, the most since Jan. 30, to 1,536.45 at the 2 p.m. close in Dubai. Kuwait’s gauge tumbled 2.5 percent, led by Mobile Telecommunications Co. as the company’s board rejected all purchase offers for its 25 percent stake in Zain Saudi Arabia.

Arab governments are cracking down on pro-democracy activists as uprisings that toppled leaders in Tunisia and Egypt spread to Libya, Algeria, Yemen and Bahrain. Prince Talal Bin Abdul Aziz, a member of Saudi Arabia’s royal family, said on Feb. 17 that the kingdom may see protests unless King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz introduces reforms, according to BBC Arabic TV.

“The spread of the geo-political tension into Bahrain is causing investors to be risk averse,” said Nabil Farhat, partner at Abu Dhabi-based Al Fajer Securities. “The risk of spreading is dependent on each country’s situation. If you have a country with high inflation, an autocratic regime, high unemployment and a big percentage of the population that is below the poverty level and young, then the risk is high.”

Home Sales Probably Fell, Goods Orders Rose as Factories Head U.S. Economy

Home sales probably fell in January, while orders for long-lasting goods climbed, a reminder that housing lags behind manufacturing as the U.S. recovery strengthens, economists said before reports this week.

Combined purchases of new and existing homes fell 2 percent to a 5.5 million annual pace, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Durable-goods bookings increased 3 percent last month, the survey showed.

Unemployment hovering near 9 percent means foreclosures may keep rising, adding to a glut of inventory that is depressing property values, hurting builders and homeowners. Growing exports, combined with increasing profits and tax incentives signed into law by President Barack Obama in December, will probably keep orders flowing to companies like Caterpillar Inc.

“Housing is basically flat on its back, and manufacturing is growing very fast, probably the biggest contrast in the economy,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. Home prices are still on the way down.”

Sales of existing homes fell 1.5 percent to a 5.2 million annual pace, economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the National Association of Realtors will report Feb. 23. Commerce Department figures the following day may show demand for new homes dropped 8.8 percent to a 300,000 rate, the survey showed. Purchases reached a record low 274,000 pace in August.

Global Economic Calendar (21-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 21st February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

G-20 Agrees on Yardsticks for Imbalances as U.S. Seeks Leverage on Yuan

Group of 20 finance officials agreed to closer monitoring of global economic imbalances, in a step toward smoothing the trade and investment distortions that plunged the world into crisis.

Yardsticks such as the current account and public and private debt will make up a scoreboard that, while not binding, may give the U.S. and Europe leverage to push for an appreciation of China’s currency.

With the world recovery entering a second year, yesterday’s G-20 sparring match over early warning indicators reflected the determination of emerging countries to challenge the West’s formula for managing the international economy.

“It wasn’t easy, there were obviously diverging interests,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told reporters after chairing the Paris meeting. The goal is “to test economic policies and determine to what extent they are favorable for all countries together and not just the basis of domestic economic policy.”

China will remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy in 2011, with a 9.6 percent expansion, the International Monetary Fund predicts. The Washington-based lender sees 3 percent growth in the U.S. and 1.5 percent in the 17-nation euro area.

‘Strengthening’ Recovery

“The global recovery is strengthening but is still uneven and downside risks remain,” the G-20 finance ministers and central bankers, representing 80 percent of world output, said in a statement. “While most advanced economies are seeing modest growth and persisting high unemployment, emerging economies are experiencing more robust growth, some with signs of overheating.”

On the eve of the meeting, China sought to ease the Beijing-Washington tension by raising bank-reserve requirements for the eighth time in a year and indicating that it will fight domestic inflation by extending a four-month-old cycle of interest-rate increases.

Higher reserve standards are not “the only method that we’ll use to battle inflation, it’s about using all means including rates and currency,” People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in an interview in Paris on Feb. 18. “One method doesn’t exclude the other.”

The yuan’s advance to 6.5732 per dollar on Feb. 18, the highest since late 1993, left U.S. and European policy makers calling for further gains to spur Chinese imports of western goods.

U.S. Loans in Foreclosure Tie Record; Lenders Delay Seizures

A record share of U.S. mortgages were in the foreclosure process at the end of 2010, matching the all-time high, as lenders and servicers delayed home seizures to investigate charges of improper documentation.

About 4.63 percent of loans were in foreclosure in the fourth quarter, up from 4.39 percent in the previous three months, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report today. The combined share of foreclosures and loans with overdue payments was 14 percent, or about one in every seven mortgages.

Property seizures plunged at the end of 2010 as lenders such as Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. temporarily halted proceedings to review their handling of court documents. That left more homes in the foreclosure process with their status unresolved. Repossessions tumbled 32 percent in the fourth quarter from the prior period, according to data from RealtyTrac Inc. in Irvine, California.

“It’s clear that the process issues were driving the increase,” Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the Washington- based Mortgage Bankers Association, said in an interview. “We would expect the foreclosure inventory to start coming down as that gets resolved and the court situations get cleared up.”

That share of mortgages in foreclosure tied the record reached in the first quarter of last year.

Foreclosure actions were started on 1.27 percent of home loans in the fourth quarter, down from 1.34 percent in the prior three months, according to the report. The share of mortgages with overdue payments dropped to 8.22 percent from 9.13 percent in the third quarter as an improving labor market and an expanding economy helped homeowners to stay current on their loans, Brinkmann said.

Bahrain Army Moves to End Protests as Unrest Spreads

Bahrain’s army was deployed in the capital, Manama, after five people were killed in clashes between pro-democracy protesters and police as unrest spread across the Middle East.

The military said it took control of large parts of the city and told people not to congregate in the main public areas. Police earlier used teargas shells and buckshot against mostly Shiite Muslim protesters who had gathered at the city’s Pearl Roundabout traffic junction to call for a constitutional monarchy and a change of government.

The dissent in Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, follows the toppling of autocratic rulers by popular movements in Egypt and Tunisia and marks the spread of unrest into the Persian Gulf, where most of the Middle East’s oil is produced. The past week has also seen anti-government protests in Libya, Africa’s biggest holder of crude oil reserves, and Yemen, a producer of liquefied natural gas.

Political risks to oil supply are “high and rising” amid unrest in the Middle East, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a report. Oil prices rose following reports from Iranian state-run Press TV that two of the country’s warships were heading for Egypt’s Suez Canal. Brent crude for April settlement climbed 15 cents to $103.93 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. The contract increased to $103.78 yesterday, the highest settlement since Sept. 25, 2008.

Global Economic Calendar (18-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 18th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Goldman Sachs to Close Fixed-Income Prop-Trading Group

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the U.S. bank that relies on fixed-income trading for the largest portion of its revenue, will shut its Global Macro Proprietary Trading desk, a person with knowledge of the decision said.

The eight-person desk, which trades currencies and stocks as well as products tied to interest rates and other fixed- income markets, will close in the days ahead, said the person, who declined to be named because the decision wasn’t public. Stephen Cohen, a spokesman for New York-based Goldman Sachs, declined to comment.

“Keeping the prop business going will have little benefit and closing it will be seen as a positive move to comply with Dodd-Frank,” said Christopher Wheeler, a London-based analyst with Mediobanca SpA, who has a “neutral” recommendation on Goldman Sachs.

Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among Wall Street firms breaking off or winding down such trading units to comply with the Volcker rule, a provision of the Dodd-Frank financial law that prohibits banks from betting capital for their own accounts. The intent was to avert losses that might cause the collapse of firms and the financial system.

The group reported results as part of Goldman Sachs’s fixed-income trading division, the person said. That division generated revenue of $13.7 billion in 2010, 35 percent of the firm’s total.

The Wall Street Journal reported the decision to close the trading desk yesterday.

Borders Files for Bankruptcy, Will Close Some Stores

Borders Group Inc., the second- biggest U.S. bookstore chain, filed for bankruptcy in New York today after management changes, job cuts and debt restructuring failed to make up for sagging book sales in the face of competition from Amazon.com Inc. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

Borders plans to keep operating and restructure with $505 million in so-called debtor-in-possession financing from lenders led by GE Capital, according to a statement. The 40-year-old chain listed debt of $1.29 billion and assets of $1.28 billion as of Dec. 25 in its Chapter 11 petition filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan.

The reorganization is only possible if Borders immediately closes 200 of its 642 stores, according to an emergency motion to sell furniture and merchandise filed in Manhattan bankruptcy court today. Sales need to start no later than Feb. 19 to take advantage of the President’s Day long weekend, and another 75 stores may need to close if concessions aren’t won from landlords, the company said.

“Closing the stores right away is essential because the Debtors are losing approximately $2 million per week at the closing stores,” lawyers for Borders wrote in court pleadings.

Market Value

Borders, whose market value has shrunk by more than $3 billion since 1998, racked up losses by failing to adapt to shifts in how consumers shop. Its first e-commerce site debuted in 2008, more than a decade after Amazon.com revolutionized publishing with online sales. The world’s largest online retailer beat it again by moving into digital books with the Kindle e-reader in 2007, a market Borders entered in July.

“Borders Group does not have the capital resources it needs to be a viable competitor,” the company’s president, Mike Edwards, said today in a statement. The bankruptcy will give it “time to reorganize in order to reposition itself to be a successful business for the long term.”

“Instead of leading and being innovative, they were certainly a follower,” said Michael Souers, an analyst for Standard & Poor’s in New York.

Borders, based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, began looking for a cash infusion in December. It said lenders cut its borrowing capacity, and that failure to find replacement credit could lead to a violation of its loan agreements and a “liquidity shortfall” in the first quarter of 2011.

Global Economic Calendar (17-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 17th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Deutsche Boerse Buys NYSE to Create Biggest Exchange Owner

Deutsche Boerse AG, operator of the Eurex futures platform and Frankfurt Stock Exchange, agreed to buy New York Stock Exchange parent NYSE Euronext in a $9.53 billion all-stock deal that creates the world’s largest owner of equities and derivatives markets.

Deutsche Boerse will swap one share of its own stock for one share in the new company, while every NYSE Euronext share will be converted into 0.47 share, according to a statement today. Deutsche Boerse will control 60 percent of the new corporation. Reto Francioni, the chief executive officer of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Boerse, will serve as chairman. Duncan Niederauer, CEO of New York-based NYSE Euronext, will keep that title at the combined organization.

While the merged entity will list corporations with about $15 trillion in value, more than any other exchange, what may prove more lucrative is ownership of growing venues for trading futures and options, said Rich Repetto, an analyst at Sandler O’Neill & Partners LP. The union follows Singapore Exchange Ltd.’s October bid for ASX Ltd., which runs the Australian stock market, and London Stock Exchange Group Plc’s agreement last week to buy Canada’s TMX Group Inc.

U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Climb Less Than Forecast

Sales at retailers rose less than forecast in January, showing it will be difficult for American consumers to sustain last quarter’s pickup in spending without bigger gains in employment.

Purchases increased 0.3 percent, the smallest gain since a drop in June, according to Commerce Department figures today in Washington. Other reports showed manufacturing in the New York area accelerated and confidence among home builders stagnated.

The sales data also indicated winter snowstorms may have played a role in the slowdown as Americans stayed away from restaurants and home-improvement stores. While Gap Inc. and Macy’s Inc. were among retailers topping analysts’ estimates as promotions lured post-holiday shoppers, rising food and gasoline prices may have caused households to cut back on non-essentials.

“There is some momentum in consumer spending, but it’s not particularly robust,” said Kevin Logan, chief U.S. economist at HSBC Securities USA Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the gain. “Things are recovering, but they’re not really healthy,” he said, and in addition, “the severe weather last month curtailed all kinds of outdoor activity.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated from a 32-month high after the reports, falling 0.4 percent to 1,327.35 at 11:54 a.m. in New York. The S&P Supercomposite Retailing Index decreased 0.1 percent.

Sales were projected to increase 0.5 percent based on the median forecast of 79 economists in the Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a gain of 1.1 percent to a drop of 0.5 percent. The December increase in sales was revised down to 0.5 percent from the 0.6 percent previously estimated.

Global Economic Calendar (16-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 16th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Wheat, Copper

Wheat futures for May delivery surged as much as 2 percent to $9.1675 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The September-delivery wheat contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jumped as much as 3.7 percent to a record 3,110 yuan ($471) a metric ton. Egypt is the world’s biggest wheat importer. Copper jumped 2 percent to $10,159 a metric ton in London on increased imports in China, the world’s largest buyer of industrial metals.

Oil fluctuated between gains and losses in New York. Brent crude for April settlement climbed 2.8 percent to $103.76 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The March contract expired on Feb. 11 at $101.43.

Brent has outpaced New York futures, widening the difference between the prices for April delivery to more than $13 a barrel, as unplanned outages cut European supplies.

The euro depreciated 0.5 percent versus the dollar and 0.7 percent against the yen. The New Zealand dollar slid 0.5 percent versus the U.S. currency after a report showed retail sales fell in December from a month earlier. Australia’s currency advanced against most of its major counterparts after government data showed home loans climbed more than economists forecast.

Emerging Markets Rebound

The MSCI gauge of 21 emerging markets recovered more than one-third of last week’s 3.4 percent drop that left the index trading at 13.8 times earnings, the lowest level since August, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index rallied 2.7 percent, led by Tata Motors Ltd., the nation’s biggest truckmaker, after profit more than tripled.

The S&P 500 last week closed at the highest level since June 2008 and a valuation of about 15.9 times its companies reported operating earnings, the most-expensive in almost eight months. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s biggest retailer, lost 1.2 percent today as JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its recommendation to “neutral” from “overweight.”

President Barack Obama will send Congress a $3.7 trillion budget that would reduce deficits by $1.1 trillion over a decade, setting up a battle with Republicans who have already deemed the plan insufficient to reduce federal debt. The deficit for the current fiscal year is forecast to hit a record $1.6 trillion -- 10.9 percent of gross domestic product -- up from $1.4 trillion the administration estimated previously, according to documents released this morning by the administration.

Emerging Market Stocks, Commodities Climb on China, Egypt

Emerging market stocks rallied the most in a month and commodities gained following China’s bigger- than-forecast growth in exports and Egypt’s plan to hand power to a democratically elected government. The euro weakened and Spanish bonds fell, while U.S. equities fluctuated.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.3 percent at 12:24 p.m. in New York after the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 2.5 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index drifted between gains and losses. Wheat climbed to a record in China and copper topped $10,000 a metric ton in London. The euro weakened against 15 of 16 major peers and Spanish 10-year bond yields increased eight basis points to 5.46 percent as Europe’s finance ministers meet to review debt-reduction targets.

The advance in the Shanghai Composite was its biggest of the year after China’s exports jumped 38 percent in January. Egypt’s ruling army council said it aims to transfer power within six months after almost three weeks of unrest ended the 30-year rule of President Hosni Mubarak.

“Yesterday’s announcement is another step toward greater democracy and individual freedoms in Egypt,” said Mohamed El- Erian, the son of an Egyptian diplomat and chief executive officer at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co. “By dissolving a discredited parliament and suspending a constitution that limits broad-based representation, the council is responding to the transitional demands of the Egyptian people.”

Global Economic Calendar (15-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 15th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Retail Sales Probably Rose in January as Promotions Enticed U.S. Shoppers

Retail sales probably climbed in January as shoppers took advantage of post-holiday promotions before winter storms covered much of the U.S., a sign the economy is on the mend, economists said before a report this week.

The projected 0.5 percent in purchases gain would follow a 0.6 percent December increase, according to the median forecast of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Commerce Department figures Feb. 15. Manufacturing expanded, prices were contained, and housing was depressed, other data may show.

Retailers like Gap Inc., Limited Brands Inc. and Macy’s Inc. topped analysts’ estimates for January sales, reinforcing forecasts that household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, will keep growing. Even so, the Federal Reserve may complete a second round of monetary stimulus worth $600 billion aimed at spurring growth and cutting unemployment.

“The recovery is becoming more broad-based,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. “The Fed is right to pursue its current policy,” he said, because “the improvement in the labor market has been pretty anemic.”

Promotions and clearance items drew customers, helping retailers ring up sales early in the month before snowy weather slowed shopping in the last two weeks, according to David Bassuk, head of the global retail practice at consultant AlixPartners in New York. Winter storms spread from the Midwest and the South to New England, covering 71 percent of the country with snow on Jan. 12, according to the National Climatic Data Center.
Topping Estimate

Sales at stores open at least a year at the more than 30 chains tracked by Retail Metrics climbed 4.4 percent in January for a 17th straight gain, surpassing its estimate of a 2.6 percent increase.

Gap, a clothing retailer based in San Francisco, benefited from higher same-store sales at its Banana Republic stores, while the Victoria’s Secret lingerie chain fueled results at Columbus, Ohio-based Limited. Department store Macy’s sales capped a year of “remarkable achievement in a period of economic uncertainty,” Chief Executive Officer Terry Lundgren said in a Feb. 3 statement.

Investors have driven up retailer shares as spending increases. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Retailing Index, which includes Macy’s and Gap, has gained 34 percent in the 12 months through Feb. 11, compared with a 23 percent advance for the broader S&P 500.

Global Economic Calendar (14-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 14th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Happy Valentine's Day!!!

Wishes Everyone all over the world a Happy Valentine's Day!

The day where most of us pour our hearts out but remember, not only to our partners, love ones and that special someone. It is also to pour our hearts out to everyone and anyone that deserves it :)

Canadian Currency Strengthens as Trade Surplus Buoys Interest-Rate Outlook

The Canadian dollar rose against most of its major counterparts as an unexpected trade surplus in December encouraged speculation the Bank of Canada will raise borrowing costs sooner than other central banks.

The loonie advanced for a second week versus the yen in the longest stretch of gains since November as the Egyptian political turmoil that led President Hosni Mubarak to resign spurred demand for North American assets. Canada’s currency erased its weekly drop versus the greenback before next week’s report on inflation as the nation posted its first trade surplus in 10 months while the U.S. trade deficit widened.

“One of the reasons the Bank of Canada was cautious on raising rates was the trade deficit, but that doesn’t appear to be the case anymore with a huge surge in December,” said Blake Jespersen, director of institutional foreign-exchange sales at Bank of Montreal in Toronto. “You take away that deficit and you look at the Canadian dollar fairly stable at par and you have the market starting to price in a hike a little sooner.”

The Canadian currency advanced 1.5 percent to 84.49 yen yesterday, from 83.24 on Feb. 4. The loonie was little changed at 98.74 cents against the U.S. dollar, compared with 98.73 cents. The Canadian dollar has traded stronger than parity with the greenback since Feb. 1.

Credit market prices show investors may be anticipating high Canadian borrowing costs. The yield yesterday on the September 2011 bankers’ acceptances contract was 1.77 percent, compared with 1.59 percent on Jan. 31.

U.S. Stocks Rise After Mubarak's Resignation, Gain in Consumer Confidence

U.S. stocks rose for a second week, sending benchmark indexes to 32-month highs, as takeovers, a rebound in retail sales and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s resignation bolstered investors’ optimism.

American Express Co. advanced 6.7 percent to lead gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Walt Disney Co. surged 6.6 percent as the world’s biggest theme-park operator posted higher-than-estimated quarterly profit. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index consumer companies reliant on Americans’ discretionary spending climbed 3.5 percent as confidence rose. NYSE Euronext soared 17 percent after saying it was in talks to be purchased by Germany’s Deutsche Boerse AG.

The S&P 500 rose 1.4 percent to 1,329.15. The Dow added 181.11 points, or 1.5 percent, to 12,273.26. Both have advanced to the highest levels since June 2008.

“While the economy is doing well and CEOs are becoming more optimistic, the highlight of the week for us was the geopolitical events in Egypt, which couldn’t have worked out much better,” said Philip Orlando, New York-based chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors Inc., which manages $358.2 billion. “M&A continues to be a positive for the market.”

The S&P 500 has advanced 5.7 percent this year as better- than-forecast economic data and company earnings boosted confidence in the economic recovery, while the Federal Reserve continued its program of buying $600 billion in Treasuries. There have been 2,707 takeovers announced globally this year, totaling $226.2 billion, a 21 percent increase from the $186.9 billion in the same period in 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Barclays Said to Cut Bonuses at Investment Banking Division by 15 Percent...

Barclays Plc, Britain’s third- largest bank, reduced bonuses for employees of its investment- banking unit, Barclays Capital, by about 15 percent on average, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

Investment bankers, traders and analysts at the London- based company were informed of their 2010 awards yesterday, said the people, who declined to be identified because the information hasn’t been made public. The firm allocated 2.7 billion pounds ($4.32 billion) for the payouts last year.

Compensation for managing directors will be paid 50 percent in cash and 50 percent in stock that vests over three years, one of the people said.

At the end of the third quarter, Barclays allocated 2.2 billion pounds ($3.5 billion) for bonuses. Earlier this week, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne announced an agreement with Britain’s biggest banks, including Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group Plc, HSBC Holdings Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, that they would pay lower bonuses and boost lending. RBS, the U.K.’s biggest taxpayer-owned lender, cut the amount it set aside for bonuses at its investment banking unit by 27 percent to less than 950 million pounds, the Edinburgh- based lender said on Feb. 9.

Mark Lane, a New York-based spokesman for Barclays, declined to comment and said the final bonus pool allocation will be made public when annual earnings are disclosed.

Barclays will be the first of Britain’s five biggest banks to report results on Feb. 15. The company may say pretax profit excluding asset sales rose to 5.7 billion pounds from 5.3 billion pounds in 2009, helped by a decline in writedowns at its investment-banking unit, according to the median estimate of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Asian Stocks Decline for Third Day This Week on Commodities; ASX Advances

Asian stocks fell, dragging a benchmark regional index lower for a third day this week, on concern U.S. unemployment and efforts by emerging countries to tame inflation will hamper a global economic recovery.

PetroChina Co., the nation’s biggest energy producer, fell 3 percent in Hong Kong after announcing an asset purchase as oil and metal prices dropped. China Resources Land Ltd., a property developer, sank 3.6 percent. ASX Ltd., the operator of Australia’s main stock exchange, jumped 4.7 percent on speculation yesterday’s merger announcements by overseas bourses make it more likely that Australian regulators will approve its takeover by Singapore Exchange Ltd.

“Investors are worried that if inflation continues to accelerate, Asian central banks may be more aggressive in tightening monetary policy,” said Lee King Fuei, a Singapore- based fund manager at Schroders Plc which held about $292 billion as of September. “It’s also happening at a time when the global economy is not yet stable.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1 percent to 136.98 as of 7:48 p.m. in Tokyo, with more than twice as many shares declining as advancing. All 10 industry groups dropped.

The index, which rose 0.1 percent earlier today, climbed 1.4 percent last week for the sharpest weekly gain this year as improving earnings outweighed concern over anti-government protests in Egypt.

Boeing Prefers New Narrow-Body Jet Over Upgrade to 737

Boeing Co. prefers to develop a new narrow-body jet around 2020 to an upgrade of its 737 model even with Airbus SAS offering new engines on its latest A320 model, Chief Executive Officer Jim McNerney said.

“I feel pretty comfortable that we can defend our customer base,” McNerney said today at a Cowen & Co. conference in New York. He said Airbus is only now catching up to Boeing, and “we’re going to be doing a new airplane” that will outstrip the A320neo announced in December.

Boeing hasn’t committed to a 737 replacement or a revamp of the current jet. Jim Albaugh, president of Boeing’s commercial airplane operations, said in a Jan. 12 interview that the decision would come by midyear.

Airbus is now using the A320neo to target current customers and those considering Bombardier Inc.’s new CSeries jet, McNerney said. “That doesn’t mean that as they get deeper into the development they’re not going to approach our customer base -- I think they will,” he said.

Prices should be stable for now on the single-aisle 737, McNerney said. On the wide-body 777, “unexpectedly strong” demand in the past three months is spurring Chicago-based Boeing to study further production increases, McNerney said.

Boeing is “very focused” this year on starting deliveries of its 787 Dreamliner and 747-8 twin-aisle jets, McNerney said. Both planes are running behind schedule, with the 787 now more than three years late in entering commercial service.

Fed's Warsh Resigns; Bernanke Adviser Questioned Stimulus

Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, who was one of Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s closest financial-crisis advisers before becoming the only governor to question the expansion of record monetary stimulus in November, resigned after five years at the central bank.

Warsh, 40, a former investment banker who was the youngest- ever Fed governor when then-President George W. Bush appointed him in 2006, will leave “on or around March 31,” he said in a letter today to President Barack Obama that was released by the Fed in Washington. His term would have run through January 2018.

His departure may give Bernanke a stronger hand to complete or potentially expand $600 billion in Treasury purchases through June. At the same time, Bernanke loses a link to Wall Street executives and Republican politicians as he carries out Congress’s overhaul of financial regulation and faces criticism from a political party that in the midterm election gained control of the U.S. House.

“I am honored to have served at a time of great consequence,” Warsh said in his resignation letter. Bernanke said in a statement that Warsh’s “intimate knowledge of financial markets and institutions proved invaluable during the recent crisis.”

Warsh’s resignation opens a second vacancy on the seven- member Board of Governors and leaves Elizabeth Duke, a former community banker, as the only governor not appointed or reappointed by Obama. Duke’s term expires in January 2012, and she can stay after that until a replacement is appointed. Obama’s nomination of Peter Diamond, a Nobel Prize-winning economist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is pending in the Senate again after failing last year.

Mubarak May Stand Down as Army Meets to `Safeguard' Nation

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak may announce today whether he will stand down as the army discusses measures “to safeguard the interests” of the country after more than two weeks of protests demanding his ouster.

Mubarak will decide “within hours” whether or not to resign, Cabinet spokesman Magdi Rady said in a telephone interview today. State television said Mubarak will address the nation from the presidential palace today.

Egypt’s top military body decided today it will stay in permanent session in response to the “legitimate” demands of the Egyptian people, according to a statement read on state television described as “Declaration 1.”

Mubarak’s rule may be nearing an end after hundreds of thousands of Egyptians flooded the country’s main squares and thoroughfares to demand his exit. The violence, which the United Nations says has killed more than 300 people, sparked concern about contagion in a region that holds more than 50 percent of the world’s known oil reserves

Egyptian dollar bonds rebounded today and the yield on the 5.75 percent dollar bond due April 2020 fell 3 basis points to 6.56 percent at 6:05 p.m. in Cairo.

In Tahrir Square, the epicenter of the protests, crowds gathered in front of large television screens and chanted ``the thieves have robbed Egypt, but the army is protecting you.''

Global Economic Calendar (11-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 11th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (10-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 10th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Glaxo to Pay $250 Million to Settle Avandia Death Lawsuits,,,

GlaxoSmithKline Plc agreed to pay more than $250 million to resolve about 5,500 claims related to its Avandia diabetes drug and avoid the first trial over claims it kills users, two people familiar with the accords said.

Glaxo, the U.K.’s biggest drugmaker, agreed to settle the lawsuits claiming the drug causes heart attacks for an average of at least $46,000 each, said the people, who declined to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

The accords included a previously reported settlement of an undisclosed amount for the family of James Burford, an Avandia user who died in 2006. The Burford family’s case, filed in federal court in Philadelphia, was set for trial last week.

“An average of $46,000 per case is a modest price to pay, in the grand scheme of things,” Gbola Amusa, an analyst at UBS AG in London, said in a telephone interview. “If Avandia definitively had caused heart attacks, Glaxo would have been forced to pay” as much as $1 million a case, he said.

The cases settled were filed by plaintiffs’ lawyers Joseph Zonies and Thomas Cartmell. Glaxo was facing about 2,000 suits alleging the drugmaker hid Avandia’s heart-attack and stroke risks prior to the settlements, lawyers for former users and the company said in court hearings. The company already agreed to pay about $460 million to resolve allegations it didn’t properly warn doctors and consumers about the medicine’s risks.

Global Economic Calendar (08-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 8th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (04-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 4th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

U.S. Gasoline at the Pump May Rise to $3.50 a Gallon by May

U.S. gasoline at the pump may rise 13 percent by May as crude oil in New York tops $100 a barrel and a recovering economy boosts fuel demand, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The highest price for regular gasoline this year will be $3.50 a gallon, based on the median estimate of 14 analysts. The motor fuel hasn’t reached that level since Oct. 6, 2008, according to AAA, the nation’s largest motoring organization.

“Gasoline prices could spike to $3.40 to $3.50,” said Amrita Sen, a commodity analyst at Barclays Capital in London. “We’re impressed at how well demand has held up at these prices. If crude goes up, it would be difficult to see gasoline not go up.”

New York oil may top $100 a barrel this year, Barclays and other analysts say, as global demand growth accelerates. U.S. fuel use over the past four weeks was 1.6 percent higher than a year earlier, according to the Energy Department. U.S. gross domestic product may grow 3.1 percent in 2011, according to the median of 71 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. China, the world’s largest energy consumer, may expand 9.5 percent.

March-delivery crude futures settled at $90.77 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while March- delivery gasoline closed at $2.5194 a gallon. Brent oil on ICE Futures Europe rose above $100 on Jan. 31 for the first time since September 2008.

Worldwide oil demand may grow in 2011 by as much as 1.8 million barrels a day, or 2 percent, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in a speech in Riyadh Jan. 24.

Mubarak Moves to Regain Streets as Turmoil Hits Yemen

Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak sought to reclaim Cairo’s streets as his supporters clashed with protesters demanding the president’s ouster and leading rival Mohamed ElBaradei called on the army to step in.

Demonstrators backing Mubarak, who said yesterday he won’t step down until September’s election, attacked opposition supporters in Tahrir Square and the two groups hurled rocks at each other. Mubarak supporters tried to storm the offices of independent newspaper Al-Shorouk, its editor said, and Al Jazeera television reported live bullets fired in central Cairo. The Egyptian army, which had earlier told protesters to go home, should act to halt fighting instigated by a “criminal regime” that “has to go immediately,” ElBaradei told BBC radio.

“We’re concerned that this escalation could lead to bloodshed,” said Daniel Williams, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch in Cairo. “We worry that this could be government- sponsored and be a prelude to a severe crackdown.”

Political turmoil is spreading through the Middle East. Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh today said he’ll stand down when his term ends in 2013. Jordan’s King Abdullah yesterday sacked his prime minister, Tunisians ousted longtime ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali last month, and in Algeria protesters have been killed in clashes with security forces. As many as 300 people died in a week of protests in Egypt which roiled international stock, bond and oil markets and prompted President Barack Obama to tell Mubarak yesterday that the transition to democracy must “begin now.”

Facebook, Twitter Valuations Fuel Trading Surge to $7 Billion

Trading of privately held companies such as Facebook Inc. is likely to surge 51 percent to almost $7 billion this year, drawing new exchanges such as Xpert Financial Inc. and Gate Technologies LLC to vie for commissions.

Xpert and Gate will be competing with SecondMarket Inc. and SharesPost Inc., which gained popularity last year as investors poured billions of dollars into Facebook, Twitter Inc. and Groupon Inc. The value of the transactions may almost triple to $6.9 billion in 2011 from $2.4 billion in 2009, according to Nyppex LLC, a New York research and advisory services firm.

Investors flocked to the secondary market last year to seek growth after a two-year slump in initial public offerings and a half decade of muted gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. With fees of about 3 percent a transaction, these exchanges are vying for upwards of $200 million in sales this year, a number that may grow as more technology startups stay private longer.

“There’s an enormous need for liquidity,” said Mona DeFrawi, who’s worked with the venture capital industry for more than 20 years and recently founded Equidity Inc., a Woodside, California, startup that helps investors build relationships with pre-IPO and newly public companies. “There’s a ton of value that’s being created and none of that is appearing in the Dow Jones or S&P 500.”

Xpert and Gate are trying to automate the process, so they work more like public stock exchanges and require fewer phone calls and e-mails to brokers.

Government Oversight?

For the exchanges to succeed, they may have to deal with increased regulatory scrutiny. New York-based SecondMarket said last month that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission asked for information on investment funds that are pooling together shares of companies like Facebook.

Private companies with fewer than 500 shareholders aren’t required to disclose financial data, so buyers on SecondMarket and SharesPost often don’t know key figures like revenue, profit, cash flow and debt obligations. Venture firms, by contrast, make direct investments into startups after extensive analysis and meetings with management. Regulators may start to clamp down, said venture capitalist Maha Ibrahim.

“Given restrictions around public markets and public shares, you have to make sure information rights are being shared,” said Ibrahim, a partner at Menlo Park, California-based Canaan Partners. The SEC “should get involved at some level.”

Global Economic Calendar (02-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 3rd February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Happy Lunar New Year!!!

Wishing all my readers and everyone all over the world who is celebrating the Lunar New Year. Happy Lunar New Year of the RABBIT!!!

For those that are not celebrating, happy holidays :)

Stronger Every Day

General Electric Co. last month posted its third straight quarter of profit growth, beating analysts’ estimates, driven by a rebound in its finance unit, health-care and transportation divisions.

“The environment continues to improve,” Jeffrey Immelt, GE’s chief executive officer, said on a Jan. 21 conference call. “The economy can get a little bit stronger every day.”

Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, posted fourth-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates as sales advanced in China, Australia and Latin America.

The Peoria, Illinois-based company last week said sales climbed 62 percent to $12.8 billion from the year-ago quarter. The company said 2011 sales will exceed $50 billion, compared with $42.59 billion in 2010.

U.S. Manufacturing Rose More Than Expected in January

Manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly accelerated in January at the fastest pace in more than six years, reinforcing forecasts the economic recovery will strengthen in 2011.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 60.8, exceeding the most optimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists and the highest level since May 2004, figures from the Tempe, Arizona-based group showed today. Readings greater than 50 signal growth.

Stocks rose, extending a global rally, as factory reports from China to Europe bolstered the outlook for American companies like Caterpillar Inc. The ISM’s employment gauge climbed to the highest level since 1973, indicating manufacturers may be more willing to hire as sales pick up.

“Businesses have figured out the economic recovery has legs so they’re growing more confident about expanding production and new orders and increasing hiring,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Manufacturing is making a very decent contribution to growth.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained for the seventh day in the last eight, rising 1.3 percent to 1,302.99 at 11:40 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note increased to 3.44 percent from 3.37 percent late yesterday.

Estimates for the factory index in the Bloomberg survey of 78 economists ranged from 56 to 59.5.

Figures from the Commerce Department showed housing remains the economy’s weakest link. Construction spending in December fell 2.5 percent, the biggest drop since July, bringing the value of all projects to the lowest level in a decade.