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Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
U.S. Rating Outlook Cut to Negative by Fitch
The U.S. lost its last stable outlook from the three biggest credit-ranking companies after Fitch Ratings lowered the nation to negative following a congressional committee’s failure to agree on deficit cuts.
Fitch’s outlook on the U.S., which it still assigns its top AAA grade, reflects “declining confidence that timely fiscal measures necessary to place U.S. public finances on a sustainable path will be forthcoming,” making the probability of a downgrade greater than 50 percent over two years, the company said yesterday in a statement. Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service said Nov. 21 that the so-called supercommittee’s inability to reach an agreement didn’t merit downgrades because the inaction will trigger $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts.
U.S. government debt rallied the most since the end of 2008 after Standard & Poor’s stripped the U.S. of its AAA ranking on Aug. 5, while global equities lost $9.7 trillion in market value during that period. Even with lawmakers reluctant to embrace the automatic cutbacks that helped prevent downgrades, President Barack Obama has pledged to veto any efforts to undermine the spending reductions.
“There’s a much broader recognition out there that you can’t just cut discretionary spending, you have to actually cut into the meat and bone of the programs driving the deficit,” Noel Hebert, a credit strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities USA Inc. in New York, said yesterday in a telephone interview. Fitch is “catching up to the dysfunction that’s been widely perceived by the American electorate for the last decade.”
Fitch’s outlook on the U.S., which it still assigns its top AAA grade, reflects “declining confidence that timely fiscal measures necessary to place U.S. public finances on a sustainable path will be forthcoming,” making the probability of a downgrade greater than 50 percent over two years, the company said yesterday in a statement. Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service said Nov. 21 that the so-called supercommittee’s inability to reach an agreement didn’t merit downgrades because the inaction will trigger $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts.
U.S. government debt rallied the most since the end of 2008 after Standard & Poor’s stripped the U.S. of its AAA ranking on Aug. 5, while global equities lost $9.7 trillion in market value during that period. Even with lawmakers reluctant to embrace the automatic cutbacks that helped prevent downgrades, President Barack Obama has pledged to veto any efforts to undermine the spending reductions.
“There’s a much broader recognition out there that you can’t just cut discretionary spending, you have to actually cut into the meat and bone of the programs driving the deficit,” Noel Hebert, a credit strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities USA Inc. in New York, said yesterday in a telephone interview. Fitch is “catching up to the dysfunction that’s been widely perceived by the American electorate for the last decade.”
Monday, November 28, 2011
Intervention No Barrier as Euro Loses to Surplus Currencies Most Since ’03
For the first time since at least 2003, investors are fleeing the euro for currencies of countries that don’t depend on international capital markets to finance their budget deficits.
The franc rose 7.3 percent and the yen 4.6 percent in the past 12 months, the biggest gains as measured by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, even as the Swiss and Japanese central banks intervened to weaken their currencies. The euro was little changed versus the dollar in the period as the European Central Bank cut interest rates and lenders in the region brought funds home to meet new capital requirements.
Investor concern the euro is at risk is mounting as bond yields in the 17-nation bloc rise to records, costs to insure its members against default jump and ECB President Mario Draghi says providing a more powerful backstop for governments is outside his authority. Traders are favoring currencies of markets that don’t need foreign capital such as Norway’s krone as banks hoard cash amid the most expensive financing rates in more than three years.
“We’ve had a preference for the Scandinavian currencies, particularly the krone, because Norway has got the current account surplus, it’s soundly managed and it’s not an indebted country,” Frances Hudson, who helps manage about $232 billion as a global strategist at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, said in a telephone interview on Nov. 24. “The ECB is going to be loosening its policy, which should take away some of the support for the euro.”
The franc rose 7.3 percent and the yen 4.6 percent in the past 12 months, the biggest gains as measured by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, even as the Swiss and Japanese central banks intervened to weaken their currencies. The euro was little changed versus the dollar in the period as the European Central Bank cut interest rates and lenders in the region brought funds home to meet new capital requirements.
Investor concern the euro is at risk is mounting as bond yields in the 17-nation bloc rise to records, costs to insure its members against default jump and ECB President Mario Draghi says providing a more powerful backstop for governments is outside his authority. Traders are favoring currencies of markets that don’t need foreign capital such as Norway’s krone as banks hoard cash amid the most expensive financing rates in more than three years.
“We’ve had a preference for the Scandinavian currencies, particularly the krone, because Norway has got the current account surplus, it’s soundly managed and it’s not an indebted country,” Frances Hudson, who helps manage about $232 billion as a global strategist at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, said in a telephone interview on Nov. 24. “The ECB is going to be loosening its policy, which should take away some of the support for the euro.”
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Euro Weakens as Reports Signal Region’s Debt Crisis Is Weighing on Growth
The euro fell to a six-week low against the dollar as reports added to signs that Europe’s economic growth is stagnating and Germany received insufficient bids at a debt auction.
The dollar rose against all of 16 its most-traded peers as a gauge of European services and manufacturing output shrank for a third month and a preliminary report showed China’s manufacturing by the most in almost three years. Sweden’s krona declined as central bank Deputy Governor Barbro Wickman-Parak said policy makers may cut interest rates if Europe’s debt crisis persists.
“The German bunds auction was pretty bad -- it clearly shows that euro-dollar was so far supported by the fact that bunds are a safe haven,” said Lutz Karpowitz, a senior currency strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, in a telephone interview. “We expect a recession for the euro zone next year. Risk aversion is high.”
Europe’s shared currency dropped 0.8 percent to $1.3402 at 8:41 a.m. New York time, after sliding earlier to $1.3372, the least since Oct. 10. The euro fell 0.5 percent to 103.46 yen. The dollar was 0.3 percent higher at 77.20 yen.
Karpowitz said he expects the 17-nation currency to weaken to $1.32 by year-end.
Futures on the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index were 0.7 percent lower. Yields on 10-year Treasuries reached fell to as low as 1.88 percent, the least since Oct. 6, before increasing to 1.93 percent.
The dollar rose against all of 16 its most-traded peers as a gauge of European services and manufacturing output shrank for a third month and a preliminary report showed China’s manufacturing by the most in almost three years. Sweden’s krona declined as central bank Deputy Governor Barbro Wickman-Parak said policy makers may cut interest rates if Europe’s debt crisis persists.
“The German bunds auction was pretty bad -- it clearly shows that euro-dollar was so far supported by the fact that bunds are a safe haven,” said Lutz Karpowitz, a senior currency strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, in a telephone interview. “We expect a recession for the euro zone next year. Risk aversion is high.”
Europe’s shared currency dropped 0.8 percent to $1.3402 at 8:41 a.m. New York time, after sliding earlier to $1.3372, the least since Oct. 10. The euro fell 0.5 percent to 103.46 yen. The dollar was 0.3 percent higher at 77.20 yen.
Karpowitz said he expects the 17-nation currency to weaken to $1.32 by year-end.
Futures on the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index were 0.7 percent lower. Yields on 10-year Treasuries reached fell to as low as 1.88 percent, the least since Oct. 6, before increasing to 1.93 percent.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Pound Weakens for Third Day Against Euro on Outlook for Additional Easing
The pound weakened for a third day against the euro on speculation U.K. central-bank minutes tomorrow will signal policy makers are leaning toward further monetary stimulus as growth slows.
Sterling dropped to a three-week low versus the shared currency even after a report showed Britain’s budget deficit narrowed in October as Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne slashed government spending. Prime Minister David Cameron said yesterday Britain is “well behind” where it needs to be on economic growth. The Debt Management Office sold 3.5 billion pounds ($5.5 billion) of index-linked gilts.
“The weakness against the euro reflects clearly what’s going on with sterling,” said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. “Cameron admitted yesterday that the debt-reduction strategy is off track. Widespread downward revisions in the U.K. growth forecast imply that reduction targets will be harder to meet.”
The pound declined 0.3 percent to 86.53 pence per euro at 12:47 p.m. London time, after falling to 86.60 pence, the weakest level since Oct. 31. Sterling was little changed at $1.5652 and 120.33 yen.
The U.K.’s net borrowing excluding support for banks fell to 6.5 billion pounds from 7.7 billion pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London. Outlays at government departments dropped 3.1 percent.
The Bank of England kept its target for asset purchases unchanged at its policy meeting on Nov. 10. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Mervyn King held the ceiling for so-called quantitative easing at 275 billion pounds, after expanding QE by 75 billion pounds in October.
Sterling dropped to a three-week low versus the shared currency even after a report showed Britain’s budget deficit narrowed in October as Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne slashed government spending. Prime Minister David Cameron said yesterday Britain is “well behind” where it needs to be on economic growth. The Debt Management Office sold 3.5 billion pounds ($5.5 billion) of index-linked gilts.
“The weakness against the euro reflects clearly what’s going on with sterling,” said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. “Cameron admitted yesterday that the debt-reduction strategy is off track. Widespread downward revisions in the U.K. growth forecast imply that reduction targets will be harder to meet.”
The pound declined 0.3 percent to 86.53 pence per euro at 12:47 p.m. London time, after falling to 86.60 pence, the weakest level since Oct. 31. Sterling was little changed at $1.5652 and 120.33 yen.
The U.K.’s net borrowing excluding support for banks fell to 6.5 billion pounds from 7.7 billion pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London. Outlays at government departments dropped 3.1 percent.
The Bank of England kept its target for asset purchases unchanged at its policy meeting on Nov. 10. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Mervyn King held the ceiling for so-called quantitative easing at 275 billion pounds, after expanding QE by 75 billion pounds in October.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Yen, Dollar Advance on Haven Demand as Prospects Fade for U.S. Debt Accord
The yen and dollar strengthened as a Democratic Party aide said a U.S. congressional committee is likely to announce it failed to agree on deficit cuts, boosting demand for safer assets.
The euro extended last week’s loss against the yen, the biggest since September, after Spain’s Socialists became the fifth European government to be ejected amid the region’s debt crisis in elections over the weekend. The pound fell as a report showed U.K. home sellers cut asking prices by the most in a year this month, adding to signs the U.K. economic outlook is worsening. The Australian dollar declined to a five-week low against its U.S. counterpart.
“When you get these kind of moves in all the risk proxies and dollar-yen doesn’t do anything, that’s a fairly clear picture of there being general risk aversion,” said Adam Cole, global head of foreign-exchange strategy in London at Royal Bank of Canada’s RBC Capital Markets unit. The deficit talks are “hitting risk aversion generally. Even though the U.S. is the epicenter of this particular issue, its currency still trades as a safe haven,” he said.
The yen strengthened 0.5 percent to 103.50 per euro at 10:27 a.m. London time, adding to last week’s 2 percent gain. Japan’s currency was little changed at 76.92 against the dollar. The U.S. currency strengthened 0.6 percent to $1.3451 per euro.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index of shares slipped for a third day, losing 2.1 percent while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of stock futures lost 1.5 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.3 percent.
The euro extended last week’s loss against the yen, the biggest since September, after Spain’s Socialists became the fifth European government to be ejected amid the region’s debt crisis in elections over the weekend. The pound fell as a report showed U.K. home sellers cut asking prices by the most in a year this month, adding to signs the U.K. economic outlook is worsening. The Australian dollar declined to a five-week low against its U.S. counterpart.
“When you get these kind of moves in all the risk proxies and dollar-yen doesn’t do anything, that’s a fairly clear picture of there being general risk aversion,” said Adam Cole, global head of foreign-exchange strategy in London at Royal Bank of Canada’s RBC Capital Markets unit. The deficit talks are “hitting risk aversion generally. Even though the U.S. is the epicenter of this particular issue, its currency still trades as a safe haven,” he said.
The yen strengthened 0.5 percent to 103.50 per euro at 10:27 a.m. London time, adding to last week’s 2 percent gain. Japan’s currency was little changed at 76.92 against the dollar. The U.S. currency strengthened 0.6 percent to $1.3451 per euro.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index of shares slipped for a third day, losing 2.1 percent while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of stock futures lost 1.5 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.3 percent.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Ackermann Says Europe Needs Crisis ‘Firewall’
Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said Europe needs a “firewall” to prevent spillover from its debt crisis and should increase the size of its rescue fund.
“We need the firewall to cope with the spillover effect, if it occurs,” Ackermann, who also chairs the Institute of International Finance, said at a conference held by the Asian Development Bank and the Institute for Global Economics in Seoul today. “The stability facility should be increased.”
The failure of European leaders to end the debt crisis with their broadest effort yet has revived a Franco-German dispute over the European Central Bank’s role and fueled investor concerns over policy makers’ economic impotence. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has rejected French calls to deploy the ECB as a crisis backstop.
French Finance Minister Francois Baroin said in a speech in Paris on Nov. 16 that “the best way to avoid contagion is to have a solid firewall” by using central bank support for Europe’s 440 billion-euro ($595 billion) rescue fund. The European Financial Stability Facility should be increased to 1 trillion to 2 trillion euros, Ackermann said today, without explaining what he meant by “firewall.”
Banks represented by the IIF reached an agreement on Oct. 26 in Brussels with European leaders to accept a 50 percent writedown in the face value of Greek government bond holdings as part of wider measures to tackle the sovereign-debt crisis. The Greek deal was part of a European plan to cut the country’s debt load, recapitalize banks and boost the region’s rescue fund to 1 trillion euros.
“We need the firewall to cope with the spillover effect, if it occurs,” Ackermann, who also chairs the Institute of International Finance, said at a conference held by the Asian Development Bank and the Institute for Global Economics in Seoul today. “The stability facility should be increased.”
The failure of European leaders to end the debt crisis with their broadest effort yet has revived a Franco-German dispute over the European Central Bank’s role and fueled investor concerns over policy makers’ economic impotence. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has rejected French calls to deploy the ECB as a crisis backstop.
French Finance Minister Francois Baroin said in a speech in Paris on Nov. 16 that “the best way to avoid contagion is to have a solid firewall” by using central bank support for Europe’s 440 billion-euro ($595 billion) rescue fund. The European Financial Stability Facility should be increased to 1 trillion to 2 trillion euros, Ackermann said today, without explaining what he meant by “firewall.”
Banks represented by the IIF reached an agreement on Oct. 26 in Brussels with European leaders to accept a 50 percent writedown in the face value of Greek government bond holdings as part of wider measures to tackle the sovereign-debt crisis. The Greek deal was part of a European plan to cut the country’s debt load, recapitalize banks and boost the region’s rescue fund to 1 trillion euros.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Euro Weakens Amid Speculation ECB Will Buy More European Government Debt
The euro fell to a five-week low versus the yen amid concern the European Central Bank will have to buy more debt from European governments as confidence wanes in the region’s ability to deal with its sovereign-debt crisis.
The 17-nation currency slid for a third day against the dollar as Spain planned to auction up to 4 billion euros ($5.4 billion) of bonds tomorrow, the same day France will sell as much as 8.2 billion euros of debt. The extra yield investors demand to hold euro-area bonds instead of German bunds was at almost euro-era highs. Italy’s largest bank, UniCredit SpA, prepared to ask the ECB to broaden the collateral it accepts.
“The market is very much on tenterhooks about the European auctions,” said Boris Schlossberg, director of research at the online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “If the French debt comes out and goes badly, that will really send a signal that contagion has spread to and infected the core.”
The euro declined 0.3 percent to 104.04 yen at 12:31 p.m. New York time. It touched 103.41 yen, the weakest level since Oct. 10. The shared currency fell 0.3 percent to $1.3504, after dropping earlier to $1.3429, also the least since Oct. 10. Japan’s currency was little changed at 77.03 versus the dollar.
The euro’s decline will find support levels, or areas on a chart where buy orders may be clustered, at $1.3404 and $1.3382, according to MacNeil Curry, head of foreign-exchange and interest-rates technical strategy at Bank America Corp. in New York. A break above $1.3557 is needed to indicate stabilization, Curry wrote to clients today.
The shared currency slid 1.4 percent over the past six months versus nine developed-nation peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen gained 7.3 percent and the dollar rose 3.5 percent, the best performers.
The 17-nation currency slid for a third day against the dollar as Spain planned to auction up to 4 billion euros ($5.4 billion) of bonds tomorrow, the same day France will sell as much as 8.2 billion euros of debt. The extra yield investors demand to hold euro-area bonds instead of German bunds was at almost euro-era highs. Italy’s largest bank, UniCredit SpA, prepared to ask the ECB to broaden the collateral it accepts.
“The market is very much on tenterhooks about the European auctions,” said Boris Schlossberg, director of research at the online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “If the French debt comes out and goes badly, that will really send a signal that contagion has spread to and infected the core.”
The euro declined 0.3 percent to 104.04 yen at 12:31 p.m. New York time. It touched 103.41 yen, the weakest level since Oct. 10. The shared currency fell 0.3 percent to $1.3504, after dropping earlier to $1.3429, also the least since Oct. 10. Japan’s currency was little changed at 77.03 versus the dollar.
The euro’s decline will find support levels, or areas on a chart where buy orders may be clustered, at $1.3404 and $1.3382, according to MacNeil Curry, head of foreign-exchange and interest-rates technical strategy at Bank America Corp. in New York. A break above $1.3557 is needed to indicate stabilization, Curry wrote to clients today.
The shared currency slid 1.4 percent over the past six months versus nine developed-nation peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen gained 7.3 percent and the dollar rose 3.5 percent, the best performers.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Euro Slides as Borrowing Costs Surge at Debt Auctions
The euro dropped to a one-month low against the yen as European bond yields surged at auctions and Mario Monti, Italy’s premier-in-waiting, faced resistance to forming a Cabinet.
The 17-nation currency fell for a second day against the dollar as Italy’s 10-year yield surpassed the 7 percent threshold that prompted other European nations to seek bailouts. The dollar and yen rose against most of their major counterparts as German investor confidence fell to a three-year low, encouraging demand for a refuge.
“Sentiment is still bearish” toward the euro, said Sebastien Galy, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. “We are seeing a continuing offloading of peripheral positions,” he said, referring to the bonds of nations such as Italy and Spain.
The euro depreciated 0.7 percent to 104.31 yen at 8:34 a.m. New York time, after dropping to 103.98 yen, the lowest level since Oct. 10. The shared currency slid 0.7 percent to $1.3544 following a drop of 0.9 percent yesterday. The yen was little changed at 77.04 versus the dollar.
The yen rallied against all 16 of its major counterparts tracked by Bloomberg and the dollar rose as futures of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank 0.6 percent. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell to 2.02 percent.
The 17-nation currency fell for a second day against the dollar as Italy’s 10-year yield surpassed the 7 percent threshold that prompted other European nations to seek bailouts. The dollar and yen rose against most of their major counterparts as German investor confidence fell to a three-year low, encouraging demand for a refuge.
“Sentiment is still bearish” toward the euro, said Sebastien Galy, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. “We are seeing a continuing offloading of peripheral positions,” he said, referring to the bonds of nations such as Italy and Spain.
The euro depreciated 0.7 percent to 104.31 yen at 8:34 a.m. New York time, after dropping to 103.98 yen, the lowest level since Oct. 10. The shared currency slid 0.7 percent to $1.3544 following a drop of 0.9 percent yesterday. The yen was little changed at 77.04 versus the dollar.
The yen rallied against all 16 of its major counterparts tracked by Bloomberg and the dollar rose as futures of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank 0.6 percent. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell to 2.02 percent.
Canada’s Dollar Declines as Crude Oil Falls on European Debt Concern
Canada’s dollar fell for the first time in three days against its U.S. counterpart on concern European nations may have difficulty repaying their debt, discouraging demand for higher-yielding assets.
The Canadian currency dropped against half of its 16 most- traded peers as crude oil fell. The Canadian dollar is underperforming today after rising versus its commodity-related peers such as the Australian dollar earlier this month.
“The focus will remain in Europe,” said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Bank of Nova Scotia’s Scotia Capital unit in Toronto, in an e-mail message. “The sovereign crisis appears to be entering a more dangerous stage. The Canadian dollar seems to have borne the brunt today.”
Canada’s currency depreciated 0.8 percent to C$1.0181 per U.S. dollar at 10:17 a.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar buys 98.22 U.S. cents.
The Canadian dollar fell as Italian borrowing costs increased at a five-year note sale today. Italy sold the securities at a yield of 6.29 percent, up from 5.32 percent at the previous auction and the highest since June 1997. Mario Monti sought to form a new government in Italy to restore investor confidence in public finances.
The loonie, as the Canadian currency is known, gained 1.4 percent against the Australian dollar in November, third most after the Swiss franc at 1.6 percent and New Zealand dollar at 1.7 percent.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index decreased 0.5 percent. Futures on crude oil, Canada’s biggest export, fell 0.8 percent to $98.017 a barrel.
Government bonds were little changed. The benchmark 10-year yield held steady at 2.13 percent after falling three basis points last week. The price of the 3.25 percent security maturing in June 2021 fell 3 cents to C$109.65.
Canada’s sovereign debt has returned 8.1 percent in 2011, compared with 8.6 percent for U.S. Treasuries, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data.
The Canadian currency dropped against half of its 16 most- traded peers as crude oil fell. The Canadian dollar is underperforming today after rising versus its commodity-related peers such as the Australian dollar earlier this month.
“The focus will remain in Europe,” said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Bank of Nova Scotia’s Scotia Capital unit in Toronto, in an e-mail message. “The sovereign crisis appears to be entering a more dangerous stage. The Canadian dollar seems to have borne the brunt today.”
Canada’s currency depreciated 0.8 percent to C$1.0181 per U.S. dollar at 10:17 a.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar buys 98.22 U.S. cents.
The Canadian dollar fell as Italian borrowing costs increased at a five-year note sale today. Italy sold the securities at a yield of 6.29 percent, up from 5.32 percent at the previous auction and the highest since June 1997. Mario Monti sought to form a new government in Italy to restore investor confidence in public finances.
The loonie, as the Canadian currency is known, gained 1.4 percent against the Australian dollar in November, third most after the Swiss franc at 1.6 percent and New Zealand dollar at 1.7 percent.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index decreased 0.5 percent. Futures on crude oil, Canada’s biggest export, fell 0.8 percent to $98.017 a barrel.
Government bonds were little changed. The benchmark 10-year yield held steady at 2.13 percent after falling three basis points last week. The price of the 3.25 percent security maturing in June 2021 fell 3 cents to C$109.65.
Canada’s sovereign debt has returned 8.1 percent in 2011, compared with 8.6 percent for U.S. Treasuries, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data.
Friday, November 11, 2011
FNP Squawk Box (11-Nov-2011)
Guys, whatever S&P said or clarifies about the French rating, I am still not comfortable going on long with EUR/USD. Based on the daily chart, I have not been on long position EUR/USD for the longest time. It has been a one-sided affair between us.
Even for today (10-Nov-2011), as of now, it is seemed to be an up close day but I made away with a short position I held since late last night and right now, I am holding another short position opened about 3:29am (Singapore Time).
There are still a lot of issues going on with the Europeans and the charts are going in line with their problems. Hence, on my end of the desk, will be ignoring any possible long positions unless the chart states otherwise, probably near term retracement. Price action is still below 200 week moving average.
EUR/USD and EUR crosses are definitely on our watch but we are not going cowboy on this one just yet. Wait a little longer guys...
Even for today (10-Nov-2011), as of now, it is seemed to be an up close day but I made away with a short position I held since late last night and right now, I am holding another short position opened about 3:29am (Singapore Time).
There are still a lot of issues going on with the Europeans and the charts are going in line with their problems. Hence, on my end of the desk, will be ignoring any possible long positions unless the chart states otherwise, probably near term retracement. Price action is still below 200 week moving average.
EUR/USD and EUR crosses are definitely on our watch but we are not going cowboy on this one just yet. Wait a little longer guys...
Euro Gains After S&P Clarifies France’s Rating
The euro advanced from a one-month low versus the dollar after Standard & Poor’s clarified that France’s credit rating remains AAA, easing concern that a crisis was imminent in the region’s second-largest economy.
The 17-nation currency advanced earlier versus most major peers after Italy drew double the bids for the amount on offer at a bill sale, damping bets the nation will face a challenge funding itself. Greece chose an interim prime minister. Higher- yielding currencies including Brazil’s real and Norway’s krone rose against the dollar as U.S. stocks advanced.
“There were heavy rumors related to a French downgrade, but now they’ve been denied,” said Sebastien Galy, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. “It’s part of a wider stabilization in risk, but we still have a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the system.”
The euro gained 0.7 percent to $1.3633 at 1:31 p.m. New York time, after rising earlier as much as 0.8 percent and falling to as low as $1.3484, the weakest level since Oct. 10. It rose 0.4 percent to 105.78 yen after falling earlier to 104.73 yen, the lowest since Oct. 12. The yen strengthened 0.3 percent to 77.601 per dollar.
The S&P 500 Index of stocks rose 1.2 percent.
Europe’s shared currency rallied from little-changed as S&P said a message was erroneously sent today to some of its subscribers suggesting France’s top-notch credit rating had been lowered. It affirmed the country’s AAA rating.
The 17-nation currency advanced earlier versus most major peers after Italy drew double the bids for the amount on offer at a bill sale, damping bets the nation will face a challenge funding itself. Greece chose an interim prime minister. Higher- yielding currencies including Brazil’s real and Norway’s krone rose against the dollar as U.S. stocks advanced.
“There were heavy rumors related to a French downgrade, but now they’ve been denied,” said Sebastien Galy, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. “It’s part of a wider stabilization in risk, but we still have a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the system.”
The euro gained 0.7 percent to $1.3633 at 1:31 p.m. New York time, after rising earlier as much as 0.8 percent and falling to as low as $1.3484, the weakest level since Oct. 10. It rose 0.4 percent to 105.78 yen after falling earlier to 104.73 yen, the lowest since Oct. 12. The yen strengthened 0.3 percent to 77.601 per dollar.
The S&P 500 Index of stocks rose 1.2 percent.
Europe’s shared currency rallied from little-changed as S&P said a message was erroneously sent today to some of its subscribers suggesting France’s top-notch credit rating had been lowered. It affirmed the country’s AAA rating.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Euro Tumbles to Four-Week Low Versus Dollar on Italian Turmoil
The euro slid to a four-week low versus the dollar as Italian bond yields climbed to euro-era records after a firm raised the deposits it demands for clearing the nation’s securities, intensifying Europe’s debt crisis.
The shared currency fell to a two-week low versus the yen on concern Italy will join Greece in struggling to form a new regime strong enough to implement austerity measures. The dollar rose as U.S. 10-year note yields declined the most in a week as demand for refuge surged. South Africa’s rand tumbled after Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on the nation’s sovereign debt rating. Stocks plunged.
“The main driver was the move up in Italian yields, and that created a broad-based sentiment of risk aversion through the market, and that sent equities lower and the dollar higher across the board,” said Matthew Perrier, Toronto-based director of foreign exchange at Bank of Montreal.
The euro slumped 1.8 percent to $1.3589 at 12:26 p.m. New York time and touched $1.3553, its lowest level since Oct. 10. It weakened 1.7 percent to 105.70 yen and touched 105.32, the least since Oct. 26. The yen was little changed at 77.76 per dollar after earlier touching 77.54, its strongest level since Oct. 31, when it set a post-World War II record of 75.35.
“The euro may find a little bit of support in the mid- $1.35s, but it depends how far the market wants to push it and whether or not we see any concrete news out of Europe to try to stem this,” Perrier said.
The shared currency fell to a two-week low versus the yen on concern Italy will join Greece in struggling to form a new regime strong enough to implement austerity measures. The dollar rose as U.S. 10-year note yields declined the most in a week as demand for refuge surged. South Africa’s rand tumbled after Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on the nation’s sovereign debt rating. Stocks plunged.
“The main driver was the move up in Italian yields, and that created a broad-based sentiment of risk aversion through the market, and that sent equities lower and the dollar higher across the board,” said Matthew Perrier, Toronto-based director of foreign exchange at Bank of Montreal.
The euro slumped 1.8 percent to $1.3589 at 12:26 p.m. New York time and touched $1.3553, its lowest level since Oct. 10. It weakened 1.7 percent to 105.70 yen and touched 105.32, the least since Oct. 26. The yen was little changed at 77.76 per dollar after earlier touching 77.54, its strongest level since Oct. 31, when it set a post-World War II record of 75.35.
“The euro may find a little bit of support in the mid- $1.35s, but it depends how far the market wants to push it and whether or not we see any concrete news out of Europe to try to stem this,” Perrier said.
Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Euro Gains on Announcement Berlusconi to Quit After Austerity Plan Passes
The euro advanced against the dollar after Italian President Giorgio Napolitano said Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi agreed to resign after the parliament approves the country’s austerity plans.
The 17-nation currency earlier traded little changed after Berlusconi won a vote in parliament without an absolute majority, fueling calls for him to quit and concern about who will lead the nation out of its debt crisis. The yen appreciated to its strongest level against the dollar since Japan intervened Oct. 31 to stem its rise.
“From the market’s perspective, they would like to see a technocrat government because that is what most likely to please the troika and manage Italy through the next through few months,” said Greg Anderson, a senior currency strategist at Citigroup Inc. in New York. The troika comprises the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.
The euro gained 0.4 percent to $1.3835 at 2:32 p.m. New York time, after falling earlier to as low as $1.3725. It was little changed at 107.47 yen after paring losses of as much as 0.4 percent. The Japanese currency rose 0.5 percent to 77.68 per dollar and touched 77.60.
The yen reached a post-World War II high of 75.35 to the greenback on Oct. 31, threatening exporters, and the Bank of Japan sold the currency to weaken it.
The South African rand climbed as gold futures topped $1,800 an ounce for the first time in seven weeks. The franc rose versus the euro as Swiss National Bank Vice President Thomas Jordan said the SNB is not weakening it to gain export advantage.
The 17-nation currency earlier traded little changed after Berlusconi won a vote in parliament without an absolute majority, fueling calls for him to quit and concern about who will lead the nation out of its debt crisis. The yen appreciated to its strongest level against the dollar since Japan intervened Oct. 31 to stem its rise.
“From the market’s perspective, they would like to see a technocrat government because that is what most likely to please the troika and manage Italy through the next through few months,” said Greg Anderson, a senior currency strategist at Citigroup Inc. in New York. The troika comprises the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.
The euro gained 0.4 percent to $1.3835 at 2:32 p.m. New York time, after falling earlier to as low as $1.3725. It was little changed at 107.47 yen after paring losses of as much as 0.4 percent. The Japanese currency rose 0.5 percent to 77.68 per dollar and touched 77.60.
The yen reached a post-World War II high of 75.35 to the greenback on Oct. 31, threatening exporters, and the Bank of Japan sold the currency to weaken it.
The South African rand climbed as gold futures topped $1,800 an ounce for the first time in seven weeks. The franc rose versus the euro as Swiss National Bank Vice President Thomas Jordan said the SNB is not weakening it to gain export advantage.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
Monday, November 07, 2011
Yen Intervention Losing Momentum
Foreign-exchange traders are gearing up to test Jun Azumi’s resolve to keep intervening in currency markets to weaken the yen from its postwar high.
While Japan’s Finance Minister directed the central bank on Oct. 31 to sell what analysts estimate was about 8 trillion yen ($102 billion), sending it down as much as 4.7 percent against the dollar, the move failed to increase volatility. Traders avoid currencies with rising price swings because they boost the odds of sudden losses.
“The yen remains one of our favorite currencies as Japan still has a strong trade surplus and benefits from the global risk aversion that we’re seeing,” Vimal Gor, the Sydney-based head of income and fixed interest at BT Investment Management Ltd., where he oversees the equivalent of $13 billion, said on Nov. 3. “Unilateral interventions in the Japanese currency have no real lasting impact. If anything we’d view this as a buying opportunity.”
Azumi, who took office in September when predecessor Yoshihiko Noda became prime minister, is under pressure to weaken the yen after traders seeking a haven from turbulence in global financial markets pushed it up as much as 21 percent between April and October against a basket of nine developed- nation peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes.
While Japan’s Finance Minister directed the central bank on Oct. 31 to sell what analysts estimate was about 8 trillion yen ($102 billion), sending it down as much as 4.7 percent against the dollar, the move failed to increase volatility. Traders avoid currencies with rising price swings because they boost the odds of sudden losses.
“The yen remains one of our favorite currencies as Japan still has a strong trade surplus and benefits from the global risk aversion that we’re seeing,” Vimal Gor, the Sydney-based head of income and fixed interest at BT Investment Management Ltd., where he oversees the equivalent of $13 billion, said on Nov. 3. “Unilateral interventions in the Japanese currency have no real lasting impact. If anything we’d view this as a buying opportunity.”
Azumi, who took office in September when predecessor Yoshihiko Noda became prime minister, is under pressure to weaken the yen after traders seeking a haven from turbulence in global financial markets pushed it up as much as 21 percent between April and October against a basket of nine developed- nation peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes.
Saturday, November 05, 2011
Selamat Hari Raya Aidiladha 2011.
Forexnewspaper.blogspot.com wishes all our Muslims readers, trading group members, supporters and all Muslims around the globe,
Selamat Hari Raya Aidiladha!
Selamat Hari Raya Aidiladha!
Friday, November 04, 2011
Thursday, November 03, 2011
Fed: Growth Strengthened; ‘Downside Risks’ Remain
Federal Reserve policy makers said the economy has picked up while “significant downside risks” remain, and they refrained from taking any additional steps to ease monetary policy.
“Economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today in Washington after a two-day meeting. At the same time, “recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions.”
The statement may reflect the desire of policy makers led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to see if the unconventional policy steps unveiled at their last two meetings help the expansion gain strength before embarking on new initiatives. While the economy grew last quarter at the fastest pace in a year, that is still insufficient to push down the unemployment rate, and officials have said the U.S. remains vulnerable to shocks from the European debt crisis.
Treasuries pared losses after the statement, leaving the 10-year yield at 2.00 percent at 1:26 p.m. in New York, compared with 1.99 percent late yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.9 percent to 1,228.66 after a report showed companies added more workers to payrolls than estimated.
“Economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today in Washington after a two-day meeting. At the same time, “recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions.”
The statement may reflect the desire of policy makers led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to see if the unconventional policy steps unveiled at their last two meetings help the expansion gain strength before embarking on new initiatives. While the economy grew last quarter at the fastest pace in a year, that is still insufficient to push down the unemployment rate, and officials have said the U.S. remains vulnerable to shocks from the European debt crisis.
Treasuries pared losses after the statement, leaving the 10-year yield at 2.00 percent at 1:26 p.m. in New York, compared with 1.99 percent late yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.9 percent to 1,228.66 after a report showed companies added more workers to payrolls than estimated.
Wednesday, November 02, 2011
Euro Declines Amid Renewed Greek Default Concerns
The euro weakened for a third day against the dollar, touching the lowest in almost three weeks, as concern the currency region’s rescue plan will crumble and the European Central Bank will cut interest rates damped demand.
The 17-nation currency fell the most in two weeks versus the yen after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou pledged to put the European Union’s latest accord to a referendum, risking pushing the country into default if rejected by voters. The dollar and yen strengthened as stocks slid around the world and data showed Chinese manufacturing slowed.
“The motivation for this referendum is anyone’s guess, but it definitely raises the level of uncertainty going forward,” said Brian Kim, a currency strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “Uncertainty is not good at this point. The dollar has been a beneficiary, since you’re seeing risk off across the board.”
The euro dropped 0.8 percent to $1.3742 at 2:16 p.m. in New York after falling 1.8 percent earlier to $1.3609, the weakest since Oct. 12. The shared currency slipped 0.6 percent to 107.66 yen, after losing as much as 1.7 percent, the biggest intraday drop since Oct. 17. The dollar rose 0.2 percent to 78.32 yen after touching 79.53 yesterday, the strongest since Aug. 4.
The euro pared losses against the dollar and yen as stocks trimmed a retreat after Dow Jones Newswires reported a Greek Socialist Party official said Papandreou’s call for a referendum is “basically dead.”
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, gained for a third day, rising 0.8 percent to 77.090.
The 17-nation currency fell the most in two weeks versus the yen after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou pledged to put the European Union’s latest accord to a referendum, risking pushing the country into default if rejected by voters. The dollar and yen strengthened as stocks slid around the world and data showed Chinese manufacturing slowed.
“The motivation for this referendum is anyone’s guess, but it definitely raises the level of uncertainty going forward,” said Brian Kim, a currency strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “Uncertainty is not good at this point. The dollar has been a beneficiary, since you’re seeing risk off across the board.”
The euro dropped 0.8 percent to $1.3742 at 2:16 p.m. in New York after falling 1.8 percent earlier to $1.3609, the weakest since Oct. 12. The shared currency slipped 0.6 percent to 107.66 yen, after losing as much as 1.7 percent, the biggest intraday drop since Oct. 17. The dollar rose 0.2 percent to 78.32 yen after touching 79.53 yesterday, the strongest since Aug. 4.
The euro pared losses against the dollar and yen as stocks trimmed a retreat after Dow Jones Newswires reported a Greek Socialist Party official said Papandreou’s call for a referendum is “basically dead.”
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, gained for a third day, rising 0.8 percent to 77.090.
Tuesday, November 01, 2011
Yen Slides Most in Three Years After Japan Intervenes
The yen slumped the most since 2008 against the dollar as Japan stepped in to foreign-exchange markets to weaken the currency for the third time this year after its gain to a postwar record threatened exporters.
The dollar rose against all its major peers after MF Global Holdings Ltd. filed for bankruptcy after making bets on European sovereign debt, driving stocks down and boosting refuge demand. The yen fell against all of its most-traded counterparts tracked by Bloomberg after Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi ordered the intervention.
“Certainly this is an extremely large intervention,” said Alan Ruskin, global head of Group-of-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. “The effect is slowly dissipating. Is this a one-day foray?”
The yen depreciated 2.8 percent to 78 per dollar at 1:14 p.m. New York time, after touching the post-World War II high of 75.35. Japan’s currency has dropped 1.2 percent in October. The yen declined 1.3 percent to 108.62 per euro and weakened 1.8 percent to 82.63 per Australian dollar. The euro fell 1.6 percent to $1.3928, paring this month’s rally to 4.1 percent. The franc gained 0.3 percent to 1.2173 per euro.
Japan’s currency earlier today dropped more than 4 percent after the intervention. That’s the biggest decline on an intraday basis since a 6.1 percent plunge on Oct. 28, 2008, three days before the Bank of Japan cut its target lending rate.
The dollar rose 1.4 percent to 1.6953 Brazilian reais today as a drop in stocks reduced demand for high-yielding assets. The greenback increased 1.6 percent to 13.2034 Mexican pesos.
The dollar rose against all its major peers after MF Global Holdings Ltd. filed for bankruptcy after making bets on European sovereign debt, driving stocks down and boosting refuge demand. The yen fell against all of its most-traded counterparts tracked by Bloomberg after Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi ordered the intervention.
“Certainly this is an extremely large intervention,” said Alan Ruskin, global head of Group-of-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. “The effect is slowly dissipating. Is this a one-day foray?”
The yen depreciated 2.8 percent to 78 per dollar at 1:14 p.m. New York time, after touching the post-World War II high of 75.35. Japan’s currency has dropped 1.2 percent in October. The yen declined 1.3 percent to 108.62 per euro and weakened 1.8 percent to 82.63 per Australian dollar. The euro fell 1.6 percent to $1.3928, paring this month’s rally to 4.1 percent. The franc gained 0.3 percent to 1.2173 per euro.
Japan’s currency earlier today dropped more than 4 percent after the intervention. That’s the biggest decline on an intraday basis since a 6.1 percent plunge on Oct. 28, 2008, three days before the Bank of Japan cut its target lending rate.
The dollar rose 1.4 percent to 1.6953 Brazilian reais today as a drop in stocks reduced demand for high-yielding assets. The greenback increased 1.6 percent to 13.2034 Mexican pesos.
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