Singapore's 2012 GDP growth revised up to 1.3%

Singapore's 2012 GDP growth revised up to 1.3%

The Singapore economy grew 1.5% yoy in the 4th qtr of 2012, more than the 1.1% official advance estimates issued in Jan showed. As a result, Singapore's GDP grew a larger 1.3% in 2012, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said on Fri, revising up its advance estimate of 1.2% growth.

On a q/q, seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy grew 3.3% in Q4 2012. This too was larger than the 1.8% advance estimate of growth, and reversed a 4.6% contraction in the 3rd qtr.

The outlook for Singapore's economy remains "cautiously positive", as it reiterated its 2013 growth forecast of 1 to 3%. Although global macroeconomic conditions have stabilised in recent mths as financial mkt conditions improved, global economic growth is likely to remain subdued.

The US housing markt has shown improvement but the strength of its economic recovery will be restrained by fiscal tightening. In the Euro zone, economic growth will likely stay stagnant, weighed down by ongoing fiscal tightening, private sector de-leveraging, as well as high unemployment rates.

Euro Touches Six-Week Low as ECB Bank Repayments Miss Forecast

The euro touched the lowest level against the dollar in six weeks after the European Central Bank said institutions will repay less of Long-Term Refinancing Operation borrowing next week than economists forecast. 

The 17-nation currency trimmed gains versus the yen as the European Commission forecast the region’s economy will shrink for a second year in 2013. The Australian dollar rose the most in seven weeks after central bank Governor Glenn Stevens said the bar for intervention was high. Japan’s currency weakened amid a White House meeting between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Barack Obama, who made no mention of the yen during remarks after the discussion. 

“The market is trading on confidence and sentiment, and the LTRO news shows that tail risk has shrunk less than we thought,” Greg Anderson, New York-based head of Group of 10 currency strategy at Citigroup Inc., said in a telephone interview.

“What we’ve seen this week is the last of the euro longs getting squeezed out.” A long position is a bet that an asset will rise. 

The euro fell was little changed at $1.3194 at 5 p.m. in New York after touching $1.3145, the lowest level since Jan. 10. The shared currency declined 1.2 percent this week. It rose 0.3 percent 123.22 yen today after strengthening as much as 0.8 percent. The yen weakened 0.3 percent to 93.42 per dollar. 

The euro may depreciate to the 2013 low of $1.2998 it reached on Jan. 4 if it declines past a support level at $1.3151, Cilline Bain, a London-based technical analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote today in a client note. Support is an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered.

EU Says Euro Zone to Shrink in 2013 as Unemployment Rises

The euro-area economy will shrink for a second year in 2013, driving unemployment higher as governments, consumers and companies curb spending, the European Commission said.

 The 17-nation euro zone’s gross domestic product will fall 0.3 percent this year, compared with a November prediction of 0.1 percent growth, the Brussels-based commission forecast today. Unemployment will climb to 12.2 percent, up from the previous estimate of 11.8 percent and 11.4 percent last year, it said. 

Europe’s labor market “is a serious concern,” Marco Buti, head of the commission’s economics department, said in a statement. “This has grave social consequences and will, if unemployment becomes structurally entrenched, also weigh on growth perspectives going forward.” 

The euro area is hamstrung by fragile public finances, vulnerable banks and a weak economy feeding, Buti said.

 The economic weakness contrasts with financial-market improvements, as nations, banks and households improve their balance sheets and hold off on new demand.

The commission cut its forecast for the German economy, Europe’s largest, to 0.5 percent growth this year, from 0.8 forecast in November, due to a drop in euro-area demand that damps export and investment.

The outlook for next year was more upbeat, with 2014 forecasts of 1.4 percent growth and 12.1 percent unemployment in the euro area. Across the 27-nation European Union, the commission is projecting 0.1 percent growth for 2013 and 1.6 percent growth in 2014, after a 0.3 percent contraction last year. 

The Stoxx 600 Index (SXXP) has climbed about 3 percent this year after a 14 percent advance last year. The euro has gained 6 percent against the dollar the past six months.

20-Feb-2013 (Binary Trades)

It is only Wednesday and I am already feeling burnt out =( This is not a good sign.

Anyway, tonight, 20-Feb-2013, Singapore's time zone.

With the German 10-y Bond Auction at around 6:38pm and a series of american's data at 9:30pm, I am still very cautious on opening any positions. Total this evening, I have only 3 done deals,, winning deals that is with binary dealing desk. The movement between point of entry and contract expiry time was very slim which is only lucrative with binary desk. 

All three trades entered with my algo entry, which under normal circumstances, I would not have opened at all, slightly on the risky side.

1 done deal with EUR/USD at 6:44pm and 2 done deals with USD/CAD at 9:54pm and 10:14pm.

EUD/USD has a nice movements on the down side before turning around a little but we are sticking to our trade plan in the trading window. That is why after cooking and having my dinner, I went on to look at USD/CAD which I aggressively entered using my algo entry.

Market jumped and still moving as I am typing this but I am done for tonight boys. 3 winning deals, enough for me tonight with 543% (81% each). Trade safely muchachos. Those who are still holding USD/CAD over at the spot dealing desk, keep holding to it, weekly data looks fine, no reason to bail out just yet.

15-Feb-2013 (Binary Trades)

It has been a crazy and tiring week. Forecasting data for my workplace has been quite a challenge at the moment due festive period of CNY. As mentioned before, due to the festivity, we have decided to put our FX Spot off the books during the festive period of CNY but we are still rolling with Binary desk.

Not much done this week with extra caution being put into place and we are glad we did. Smaller gains but more percentage wins is worth the effort and straining from jumping into aggressive deals.

Today, or rather tonight with respect to Singapore time, 15-Feb-2013. We are focused more into the night with Canadians releasing their month/month Manufacturing Sales data and US releasing their Empire State Manufacturing Index data and few others. During this window of trading, as per our trade plan, we look at USD/CAD.

Upon Canadians release, it jumped. On my end, I had waited for entry. It turned out well and got out at Binary expiry. Then after, I went for a second entry and it turned out positive. Both using our algo entry. For those that just came back from vacation, we are sticking to Stochs (5,3,3) and the rest remains the same.

Only two deals for me tonight with 181% each. I am out boys, brain capacity is maxed out. Those that are still rolling, be careful, trade safely. It is Friday and there might be interesting movements or dull. Anything can happen, so do not let your guard down.

11-Feb-2013 (Binary Trades)

Fairly quiet day with those celebrating Lunar New Year. It is a public holiday here in Singapore and most in Asia, the banks in Japan observing National Foundation Day and China observing Lunar New Year, they close for celebration.

The rest of the world is still doing business as usual.

To the boys rolling the desk today with me, we are mostly looking at AUD/USD. It has been the downside bias since morning but I personally did not rush to go in. Time is what I have today.

Total done with 162% ROI today with binary desk. Two trades done based on our algo entry. That's all from my end. To the rest, that is still rolling. Be extra careful of spikes. We are staying out on spots during this festive period.

Obama to Propose Spending to Boost Jobs in State of Union Speech

President Barack Obama will use his State of the Union address this week to focus on job creation and the struggles of American families, marking a renewed emphasis on the economic issues that defined his first term. 

The president will offer proposals for spending on infrastructure, clean energy and education, according to a senior official briefed on the speech. He will also stress the agenda laid out in his inauguration address, pushing Congress for action on immigration, gun control and climate change. 

Obama previewed his Feb. 12 speech in remarks before House Democrats meeting in Virginia last week, where he advocated for “an economy that works for everybody.” 

“I’m going to be talking about making sure that we’re focused on job creation here in the United States of America,” he said. 

Democrats and Republicans are targeting their post-election messages on the economy as the latest unemployment report shows the nation continues to only slowly create jobs. Payrolls rose 157,000 in January after accelerating more than previously estimated at the end of 2012, the Labor Department said on Feb. 1. The jobless rate increased to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent. 

The economy unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter at a 0.1 percent annual rate, restrained by a plunge in defense spending and dwindling inventory growth. 

Obama is expected to use his address to push for immigration legislation that includes a pathway to citizenship for the country’s estimated 11 million undocumented workers and on gun-control proposals, including a ban on assault weapons and universal background checks for gun buyers.

Happy New Year of the Snake

FNP wishes all readers, traders, friends, colleagues, partners and everyone that is celebrating the lunar new year, a Happy, Prosperous, Healthy and Blessed year of the snake.

=^_^=

Nikkei 225 (06-Feb-2013)

How will the Nikkei 225 perform today? It has been undecided yesterday with price action close below opening.

Eaton CEO Says China GDP Report Overstates Growth Rate

Eaton Corp. (ETN) Chief Executive Officer Sandy Cutler said China’s official 7.8 percent economic growth for 2012 may have overstated expansion by twice the real rate, and is only now headed for a “legitimate” 8 percent gain.

Based on indicators such as consumer consumption and electric power usage, China’s gross domestic product probably grew 3 percent to 4 percent last year, Cutler said today in a telephone interview. The economy is accelerating now that China is past the distractions from its leadership change, he said.

“That’s what we and so many multinational companies have been feeling there in China for the last year and a half, the economy really hasn’t been growing at 7 or 8 percent,” Cutler said. “If we could get back to an 8 percent growth rate in China for 2013, that would be a pretty darn good year.”

Cutler’s assessment, delivered after Eaton’s quarterly earnings report, suggested that China masked the extent of the slowdown preceding Xi Jinping’s elevation to general secretary of the ruling Communist Party in November. The government reported that GDP growth decelerated from 9.3 percent in 2011 and 10.4 percent in 2010.

China tended to “tamp down” reported GDP expansion as it ran at 12 percent or more in 2006 and 2007, Cutler said. The government boosted the official tally after slowing growth to quell inflation, said Cutler, 61, who presides over a manufacturer that got more than half its 2012 revenue of $16.3 billion from outside the U.S.

Euro Extends Gains Amid Bets ECB Won’t Weaken Currency

The euro gained against the dollar on speculation that European Central Bank policy makers aren’t concerned a stronger currency will slow the economic recovery.

The 17-nation common currency advanced versus the majority of its 16 most-traded peers as the ECB’s balance sheet shrank to the smallest in almost a year on early loan repayments by euro- area banks even as French President Francois Hollande warned that a rising currency may deepen the recession. The yen touched the weakest in almost three years against the dollar as the Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he will step down on March 19, three weeks early. The ECB meets on Feb. 7.

“I think that the euro could continue to climb higher,” Douglas Borthwick, a managing director and head of foreign exchange at Chapdelaine FX in New York, said in a telephone interview. “The Japanese said ‘we are weakening our currency,’ the British are staring down the barrel of a downgrade and the U.S. is weakening the dollar through quantitative easing. The euro should be trading at the $1.40 level in the next few months.”

The euro strengthened 0.5 percent to $1.3583 at 5 p.m. in New York, lower than its five-year average of $1.3715. The yen slid 1.4 percent to 93.63 per dollar after touching 93.66, weakest since May 2010. The euro rose 1.9 percent to 127.18 yen after reaching 127.22, the highest since April 2010.

Dell Taken Private as PC Slump Hastens $24 Billion Buyout

Dell Inc. (DELL) is going private in a $24.4 billion leveraged buyout that signals the waning of the personal-computer industry it once dominated.

In the largest LBO since the financial crisis, Chief Executive Officer Michael Dell and Silver Lake Management LLC are paying $13.65 a share, the companies said today in a statement. That’s 25 percent more than the closing price of $10.88 on Jan. 11, the last trading day before Bloomberg News reported the discussions.

Michael Dell is taking back majority control of the company he started in a University of Texas dormitory almost three decades ago after struggling to equip the PC maker for a new generation of competitors in mobile and cloud computing. He’s wagering that he can more effectively transform Dell into a provider of a broad range of products for corporations outside the scrutiny of public investors, even while encumbering it with about $17 billion in additional debt.

Shirakawa Accelerates BOJ Exit as Abe Presses for Stimulus

Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will step down on March 19, almost three weeks before his term was due, accelerating a leadership transition that may aid Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s campaign for aggressive easing. 

Shirakawa, 63, will exit the same time as two deputy governors, he told reporters in Tokyo. He was scheduled to leave on April 8. Japan’s currency slid after the comments, adding to losses against the dollar since Abe’s administration took office in December on a platform of greater monetary stimulus and a reversal of yen strength that has hurt export competitiveness. 

The outgoing chief assured the stability of Japan’s financial system with liquidity injections during the global credit crisis, and again in the wake of the record March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. At the same time, his failure to end the nation’s trenchant deflation stoked criticism from lawmakers, and administration officials have pledged a replacement who shares Abe’s determination to end price declines. 

“The governor’s resignation will likely push forward the timing of bold monetary easing action,” said Akito Fukunaga, chief rates strategist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo, a unit of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “Shirakawa has probably judged that it’s better for the BOJ to start with a new top three who have similar views.”

Euro Remains Lower Versus Yen on Italy, Spain Uncertainty

The euro fell against the yen, following yesterday’s drop which was the biggest since June, amid corruption allegations against Spanish Premier Mariano Rajoy and uncertainty ahead of Italian elections this month.

The 17-nation currency halted this year’s climb against the dollar before European Central Bank policy makers meet on Feb. 7. The yen rose against most major peers as investors bought haven assets after Asian equities slid. Australia’s dollar fell after the central bank kept interest rates unchanged while saying the inflation outlook allows scope further easing.

Asian Stocks Fall From 18-Month High on Europe as Aussie Weakens

Asian stocks fell from an 18-month high on renewed concern about Europe’s debt crisis and as forecasts from HTC Corp. to Hitachi Ltd. (6501) disappointed investors. Metals declined and Australia’s dollar weakened.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) lost 0.8 percent at 12:53 p.m. in Tokyo, as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slumped 1.6 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed after a 1.2 percent slump yesterday. Palladium slipped 0.8 percent and zinc retreated 1 percent. The Australian dollar fell 0.4 percent versus the greenback after the central bank left interest rates unchanged. The euro weakened against the dollar after falling the most in a month yesterday.

Too-Big-to-Fail Too Hard to Fix Amid Calls to Curb Banks

Top U.S. bank regulators and lawmakers are pushing for action to limit the risk that the government again winds up financing the rescue of one or more of the nation’s biggest financial institutions.

Officials leading the debate, including Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Senator Sherrod Brown, share the view that the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act failed to curb the growth of large banks after promising in its preamble to “end too big to fail.”

Strategies under consideration range from legislation that would cap the size of big banks or make them raise more capital to regulatory actions to discourage mergers or require that financial firms hold specified levels of long-term debt to convert into equity in a failure.

The push for revisiting the law or writing new rules “is absolutely driven by a sense that Dodd-Frank did not end too big to fail,” said Mark Calabria, director of financial-regulation studies at the Cato Institute in Washington and a former aide to Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama when he was the ranking Republican on the Banking Committee.

Three of the four largest U.S. banks -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) -- are bigger today than they were in 2007, heightening the risk of economic damage if one gets into trouble. JPMorgan’s 2012 trading loss of more than $6.2 billion from a bet on credit derivatives raised questions anew about whether the largest institutions have grown too complex for oversight.