Binary Options (Trades Done) 31 Mar 2014

Binary Options - 31 Mar 2014

Not really in the best mojo tonight.

5 done deals: 3 wins, 2 lose

(3 x 76%) - (2 x 100%) = 228% - 200% = 28% profit (Based on per trade size)

Canada Dollar Bearish Bets Fall Most Ever on China Easing Signs

Futures traders reduced bets that the Canadian dollar will decline against its U.S. counterpart by the most on record amid speculation China will add monetary stimulus, boosting demand for raw materials and energy.

Speculators cut wagers on Canada’s dollar weakening against the greenback, known as net shorts, by 36,590 positions as of March 25 from a week earlier, the most in records going back to 1993, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The shift reduced short positions to 33,215 contracts, from 69,805 on March 21.

The Canadian dollar, nicknamed the loonie for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, declined 0.3 percent to C$1.1061 in Toronto trading after gaining earlier to C$1.1001, the strongest level since March 7. It climbed 1.5 percent for the week, the most since July, snapping three weeks of losses.

The Aussie dollar gained 1.8 percent this week, the most since the five days ended Feb. 7, to 92.47 U.S. cents. It touched 92.95 cents today, the highest since Nov. 21.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said he’s confident of keeping his nation’s growth in a “reasonable range.” The country’s manufacturing industry weakened for a fifth straight month, according to a preliminary measure for March released March 24.

Fed of 1970s Shows Capacity May Mislead

The decision of central banks to focus more on economic slack as a barometer of when inflation will become a problem could backfire, if history is any guide.

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank have started using the level of spare capacity in their economies as a way to foretell when they will start reversing easy monetary policies. The more capacity, the bigger the output gap between actual and potential economic growth and the longer officials can keep interest rates low because price pressures will be sluggish.

“While this sounds plausible, past experience suggests that central banks tend to hike rates too slowly, with corresponding risks for price inflation,” Christoph Balz and Bernd Weidensteiner, economists at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said in a March 21 report.

The problem is that output gaps are hard to estimate and better done in hindsight. To demonstrate that, the Commerzbank economists looked at what the Fed would have estimated for the output gap in the early 1970s, given the data they had available from the prior three decades.

The initial impression was of an output gap of minus 1 percent for 1974, which would have encouraged the U.S. central bank to be “moderately expansionary,” said Balz and Weidensteiner.

In reality, the economy was later shown to have been slightly over-stretched in 1974. Repeating the exercise for 1983, the output gap the Fed would have calculated at the time was minus 1 percent, versus the minus 4 percent it proved to be.

“In other words, a more restrictive policy would have been appropriate in 1974, but in 1983 a more expansionary policy was required,” said Commerzbank. “This demonstrates the uncertainty prevailing when monetary policy conclusions are drawn from the current data set.”

With the Fed’s new lines of communication aimed at damping expectations of rate hikes, the risk is the Fed “will again probably raise rates too late and too cautiously,” said the economists. This time the “greater danger” may be that loose monetary policy fans inflation in asset prices.

USD/JPY (29 MARCH 2014)

USD/JPY - Under daily chart, from late December 2013 till now, the movement of price is seem to be on a closing wedge. Squeezing in with lower highs and higher lows.

Trading with caution, factoring in the closing wedge resistance and support. If a break out does occur, do not be trigger happy. Proceed with extreme caution.

If it does break above the closing wedge, our first resistance to look at will be around 103.75, the high of 7th March 2014.

Binary Options - Trades Done (28 MAR 2014)

Binary Options (28 MAR 2014)

3 done deals: 2 wins, 1 break-even.

(2 x 76%) + (1 x 0%) = 152% profit (Based on per trade size)

Binary Options (TRADES DONE) 24 MAR 2014

Binary Options - 24 Mar 2014

Took a look here and there, jumping from USD/JPY, EUR/USD & GBP/JPY.

8 done deals: 6 Win & 2 Lose

Computation: (1 x 67%) + (5 x 76%) - (2 x 100%) = 247% Profit (Based on per trade size)

Losing stamina, I am out for today.

Gold Decline

Gold futures in New York declined 3.1 percent last week to $1,336 an ounce, while the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials fell 0.5 percent. The MSCI All-Country World index of equities rose 0.7 percent, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, rose 0.6 percent. The Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index fell 0.5 percent.

The net-bullish position in gold rose 13 percent to 138,429 futures and options in the week ended March 18, the most since November 2012, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Short holdings fell for a fifth week, the longest streak in three years.

Investor holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion posted the first weekly decline in four last week. On March 19, the Fed cut its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion. Yellen said the asset buying could end this fall and benchmark interest rates could rise about six months later. Gold jumped 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system and held borrowing costs near zero percent to boost the economy.

European Stocks Decline

European stocks retreated, after the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s biggest weekly advance in more than a month, as world leaders gather in The Hague to discuss tension over Ukraine and a manufacturing gauge for China and Germany slipped. U.S. index futures and Asian shares rose.

Centrica Plc declined 1.2 percent after a report said U.K.’s biggest utilities may be split. Royal KPN (KPN) NV lost 2.4 percent after Citigroup Inc. downgraded the stock. CEZ AS, the biggest Czech utility, climbed 3.4 percent after the nation’s finance minister said the government is seeking a 100 percent dividend payout.

The Stoxx 600 fell 0.7 percent to 325.48 at 9:27 a.m. in London. The benchmark index advanced 1.8 percent last week as Russian President Vladimir Putin said he won’t seek territory beyond Crimea. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.2 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.1 percent.

Leaders of the U.S., the European Union, China, Japan and others meet today as concern grows that Russia is massing soldiers on Ukraine’s border. U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague wrote in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph that Russia’s troop buildup means the crisis may worsen, calling the situation the most serious risk to European security in the 21st century.

Asian Currencies reaction on Fed Outlook.

Asian currencies had their steepest weekly loss in nine months after the Federal Reserve increased its 2015 interest-rate forecast and China doubled the yuan’s trading band.

The Fed, while indicating this week that the target rate will stay at zero to 0.25 percent in 2014, said it may reach 1 percent by the end of 2015, higher than 0.75 percent predicted previously. The yuan completed a record five-day drop as China’s central bank cut the daily reference rate to the lowest since November, almost a week after it increased the maximum limit the currency can diverge from the fixing to 2 percent.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-active currencies, slid 0.7 percent from March 14 to 114.51 in Singapore, the biggest decline since June. The yuan slumped 1.2 percent to 6.2250 per dollar in Shanghai and reached 6.2370 yesterday, the lowest level since February last year, China Foreign Exchange Trade System prices showed.
‘Surprised Markets’

The U.S. central bank trimmed its bond-buying program, which has fueled fund flows to emerging markets, this week by a further $10 billion to $55 billion. It started cutting the stimulus at the beginning of the year from $85 billion. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said March 19 that rates could start rising “around six months” following an end to the purchases later this year.

The Philippine peso sank 1.5 percent to 45.31 per dollar this week, Malaysia’s ringgit fell 0.9 percent to 3.3085 and Taiwan’s dollar slid 0.9 percent to NT$30.652. Indonesia’s rupiah lost 0.6 percent to 11,423, South Korea’s won weakened 0.7 percent to 1,080.4 and Thailand’s baht dropped 0.3 percent to 32.381. India’s rupee climbed 0.4 percent to 60.9250.

China’s currency dropped amid signs growth in Asia’s largest economy is cooling after reports showed an unexpected slump in exports and slowing factory output. The risk of further defaults is also weighing on sentiment. The People’s Bank of China cut the daily fixing by a total of 0.21 percent this week to 6.1475 per dollar.

Bank Negara Malaysia trimmed the lower end of its estimate for 2014 economic growth this week, saying inflation will hurt household spending amid an uneven global recovery. Gross domestic product may increase 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent in 2014, after climbing 4.7 percent last year, according to the central bank’s annual report issued March 19. That’s wider than the Finance Ministry’s previous range of 5 percent to 5.5 percent. Inflation may come in between 3 percent to 4 percent, compared with 2.1 percent in 2013, it said.

Binary Options (Trades Done) 17 Mar 2014

Binary Options - 17 Mar 2014

Started hunting at 9pm (SG Time). 6 done deals.

6 done deals: 4 win, 2 Lose

(4 x 76%) - (2 x 100%) = 104% return (Based on per trade size)

Closing shop for today. Tomorrow will be another. Hidden Secret, over and out....

Binary Options (Trades Done) 13 Mar 2013

Tiring day, still recovering from flu. Took a look at the charts after dinner. After reviewing it, knowing I do not want to drag it to a long night, conservative plan for tonight, no aggressive entry. Decision to go ahead with USD/JPY.

(Binary Options) 2 Done deals: 2 wins.

2 x 76% = 152% profit.

I am out.

Binary Options (Trades Done) 12 Mar 2014

Feeling a little better, recovering from the flu but still weak.

Made 3 done deals on Binary Options with USD/JPY after a quick review.

3 done deals: 2 wins (1 x usual trade size, 1 x slightly higher than twice usual trade size), 1 lose.

Rough computation: 166% profit (Based on usual trade size)

Going to get some rest. I am out.

Binary Options (TRADES DONE) 11 Mar 2014

Still feeling under the weather =(  6 done deals with first one error trade, didn't double check on the pair before doing the deal >_< Daaaammit...

6 done deals: 3 wins (2 x Slightly more than usual trade size & 1 x usual trade size), 3 lose (Usual trade size).

Rough computation: 156% profit. (Based on per usual trade size)

Sorry no charts attached tonight. Just want to pop my pills and KO. I am out.

So far for March 2014, month to date has been 77.79% return.

Binary Options - 10 Mar 2014

Sickly day for me. Took a look here and there. More focused on USD/JPY.

4 Done deals on Binary Options: 3 wins (2 usual trade size, 1 slightly double trade size) and 1 lose.

Rough computation: 210% profit (Based on usual trade size)

I am out. Going to take my medications again and KO.

Dollar Rise against Yen.

The dollar rose to a six-week high against the yen as U.S. employment gains exceeded forecasts, boosting speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue to pare monetary stimulus that’s seen as debasing the currency.

The U.S. currency rallied as the Labor Department reported employers added 175,000 jobs in February, compared with the median estimate of 149,000 in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Canada’s dollar declined versus the majority of its most-traded counterparts after employers unexpectedly eliminated jobs last month. The euro reached the highest level in more than two years versus the dollar as bets on further European Central Bank stimulus waned, boosting demand for the 18-nation currency.

The dollar gained 0.3 percent to 103.33 yen at 1:26 p.m. in New York, reaching the strongest level since Jan. 23. The euro added 0.1 percent to $1.3875 after touching $1.3915, the highest level since Oct. 31, 2011. The shared currency gained 0.4 percent to 143.36 yen.

Binary Options (TRADE DONE) 07 Mar 2914 - Update

After doing my stuffs and this week's evaluation. Spotted this one irresistible entry. Went in for one more =]

Updated done deals for tonight, 4 done deals: 4 wins

4 x 76% = 304% Profit (Based on per trade size)

I am out for real now =] 

Binary Options (TRADES DONE) 07 MAR 2014

Started hunting at 11:00pm (SG Time). After quick review, decision was to go with USD/JPY.

3 done deal: 3 Wins

3 x 76% = 228% Profit (Based on per trade size)

Seems to have more opportunities but I am abiding to my money management rules =]

AUD/USD TRADE (06 MAR 2014)

Aside from my Binary Options, this is my FX Spot done deal.

Open the position with AUD/USD at 06 Mar, 1:00am (SG Time) at price of 0.89829. Placed my initial TP at 0.9045, immediate resistance. 1min later, after quick review, decision made to change TP to 0.9075, sensitive resistance price line. Stop loss was placed at previous low of 0.8885, near the low of 03 Mar. At 06 Mar, 9:41pm, stop loss is moved to entry at 0.8930.

Trade closed at 0.9025 TP, 06 Mar, 11:02 pm (SG Time).

For this FX Spot done deal, 92.2pips profit.