Global Economic Calendar (15-July-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 15th July 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Dollar Weakens as Bernanke Says the Fed Will Respond If Stimulus Is Needed

The dollar weakened against all its most-traded counterparts as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said policy makers will provide economic stimulus if needed and investor demand for higher-yielding assets increased.

The greenback fell the most in six months versus the euro as Bernanke said central bank is prepared to take additional action, including buying more government bonds, if the economy appears to be in danger of stalling. The Australian and New Zealand dollars led earlier gains against the currency after China’s economic growth exceeded analysts’ estimates. The euro advanced as Italian and Spanish bonds rose for a second day.

“The markets are weighing the trade-off between the potential for liquidity injections and worsening in global growth prospects,” said Aroop Chatterjee, a currency strategist at Barclays Plc in New York. “For the time being liquidity is winning out. Bernanke’s comments may take some of the focus off what markets have been trading on, which have been largely linked to European news.”

The dollar weakened 1.4 percent against the euro to $1.4166 at 12:38 p.m. in New York, its biggest drop since Jan. 13. It reached $1.3837 yesterday, the strongest level since March 11.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.2 percent and the yield on 10-year Treasuries increased seven basis points to 2.95 percent.

Global Economic Calendar (14-July-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 14th July 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Weakens on Concern Debt Crisis Will Reach to Italy; Yen Strengthens

The euro dropped to the lowest level in four months versus the yen and traded near a record low against the Swiss franc amid investor concern the region’s debt crisis will spread to Italy, the euro-area’s largest debtor.

The 17-nation currency erased losses against half its major counterparts including the dollar as Italian bonds and U.S. equities reversed earlier declines. The yen reached its strongest level against the dollar since the Group of Seven nations jointly intervened to weaken the currency. New Zealand’s dollar fell against all 16-major counterparts as currencies linked to global growth weakened.

“Some people are trading on reality and some are trading on hope, so the euro doesn’t have a lot of direction,” said Brian Taylor, chief currency trader a Manufacturers & Traders Trust in Buffalo, New York. “The major negative affecting the euro is the worry of contagion to Italy and what that means. There’s no resolution from the finance ministers, which doesn’t help.”

The euro fell as much as 2.7 percent to 109.58 yen, the least since March 17, before trading at 111.34 at 2:05 p.m. in New York. The 17-nation currency touched $1.3837, the weakest since March 11, before trading 0.1 percent lower at $1.4012. The dollar touched 79.17 yen, the lowest level since March 18.

Global Economic Calendar (13-July-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 13th July 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Best Currency Forecasters Say Dollar Slump Over

The best currency forecasters say the dollar’s 12 percent slide over the past year is coming to an end as Europe’s deepening debt crisis discourages bets against the world’s reserve currency.

Led by Schneider Foreign Exchange Ltd., the five most- accurate firms during the six quarters through June 30 as measured by Bloomberg see the dollar trading at $1.42 per euro on average by year-end, compared with $1.43 on July 8. Against the yen, they predict the greenback will rise to 83 from 80.64.

While Moody’s Investors Service added to Europe’s woes last week by lowering Portugal’s credit ranking to junk, the dollar is regaining its status as a haven after the worst performance over the past year among 10 developed-market currencies based on Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar is up 5.9 percent from a 17-month low on May 4 against the euro.

“There’s not a lot of room left for it to weaken beyond $1.50 to the euro, and we still see it recovering to about $1.40 by year-end,” said Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider in London, who had an average margin of error of 5.05 percent across all currency pairs. “The risk of a disorderly default is, for now, much higher in Europe than in the U.S.”

Global Economic Calendar (12-July-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 12th July 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (11-July-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 11th July 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Canadian Dollar Climbs Versus Greenback, Euro, on U.S. Employment Report

Canada’s dollar strengthened against the greenback and the euro to the highest levels in more than a month after an ADP Employer Services report showed U.S. companies added more jobs in June than forecast.

The Canadian dollar, also known as the loonie, topped all 16 of its most-traded peers, appreciating more than 1 percent versus the yen after the European Central Bank raised interest rates and as gains in copper and crude oil made currencies linked to raw materials more attractive.

“If the U.S. does better, then countries linked to it are expected to outperform,” Sebastien Galy, a foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA in London, wrote in an e-mail. “The Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso were immediate recipients of fast-money flows on the back of the ADP.”

The Canadian currency rose 0.8 percent to 95.77 cents per U.S. dollar at 8:07 a.m. in Toronto, the strongest since May 11. One Canadian dollar buys $1.0442.

The loonie strengthened 1 percent to C$1.3782 per euro at, the strongest since May 16. It rose 1.1 percent to 84.76 cents per yen, the strongest since May 19.

Crude oil futures rose 2.1 percent to $98.71 a barrel in New York. Crude is Canada’s largest export. Copper for September delivery advanced 3.1 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $4.366 a pound on the Comex in New York. Canada derives about half its export revenue from raw materials.

Global Economic Calendar (8-July-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 8th July 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Canada’s Dollar Depreciates After China Raises Benchmark Interest Rates

Canada’s dollar fell versus its U.S. counterpart, touching the lowest in almost a week, after the Chinese government increased interest rates to cool its economy, sapping demand for higher-yielding currencies.

Canada’s dollar rose for a second day against the euro as traders sold the 17-nation common currency after Moody’s Investors Service cut Portugal’s credit rating to junk yesterday.

“Risk is off the table certainly this morning, given the move by China to raise interest rates,” said Neil Mellor, a currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp., by phone from London. “Markets had already come under a little pressure overnight because of the downgrade of Portugal by Moody’s. When risk is taken off the table, people buy the U.S. dollar back.”

The Canadian currency dropped 0.3 percent to 96.61 cents per U.S. dollar at 9:28 a.m. in Toronto, compared with 96.34 cents yesterday. One Canadian dollar buys $1.0352. It rose 0.4 percent to C$1.3844 per euro.

Investors should short the euro against the Canadian dollar because “lingering uncertainty” over peripheral countries will drag down the 17-nation common currency, Valentin Marinov and Andrew Cox, strategists at Citigroup Inc., wrote in a note to clients today.

Global Economic Calendar (07-July-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 7th July 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Pound Strengthens Against Euro After U.K. Services Data Exceeds Forecasts

The pound strengthened against the euro and the dollar after a report showed a measure of U.K. service industries exceeded economists’ forecasts in June, alleviating concerns about the recovery.

Sterling advanced versus all but one of its 16 major peers monitored by Bloomberg, climbing most against the yen. A gauge of U.K. services growth based on a survey of companies rose to 53.9 from 53.8 in May, Markit Economics Ltd. and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said today in a report. The median forecast of 26 economists polled by Bloomberg predicted a decline to 53.5. A level above 50 indicates expansion.

“The focus from the market right now is very much on the growth numbers, and positive data outcomes will tend to be supportive of sterling,” said Chris Scicluna, deputy head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe in London.

The pound appreciated 0.7 percent to 89.80 pence per euro as of 1:09 p.m. in London, the first time in three days that it has traded stronger than the 90 pence level. Sterling rose 0.1 percent to $1.6099, a third consecutive day of gains.

The pound has slumped this year against 12 of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg as Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron’s austerity measures to shrink the budget deficit crimp growth and inflation squeezes incomes at the fastest pace since the 1970s. Efforts to eliminate the bulk of the fiscal shortfall by 2015 involve the deepest spending cuts since World War II and more than 300,000 state-employee job losses.

Global Economic Calendar (06-July-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 6th July 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Falls Versus Yen After S&P Says Greece May Be In ‘Selective Default’

The euro weakened versus the yen after Standard & Poor’s said a debt-rollover plan for Greece may prompt a “selective default” rating for the country.

The 17-nation currency had risen to the highest level since June 8 against its Japanese counterpart on speculation the European Central Bank will increase rates this week. The Swiss franc slipped after retail sales slumped. The Thai baht rose after an election win by allies of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra spurred optimism foreign investors will return.

“Sentiment was undermined with those S&P comments,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London. “Markets are reluctant to aggressively sell the euro, though. We need to see what the other rating agencies are going to suggest.”

The shared currency fell 0.1 percent to 117.27 yen as of 9:52 a.m. in Toronto. The euro was little changed at $1.4515, after advancing to $1.4578, the strongest since June 9. The dollar traded at 80.79 yen, from 80.83 on Friday in New York.

Europe is inching toward a goal of getting banks to replace 30 billion euros ($44 billion) of maturing Greek bonds with new securities. French banks, with the biggest exposure to Greece, worked out a rollover formula that is serving as an example.

Global Economic Calendar (05-July-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 5th July 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (04-07-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 4th July 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

S&P Would Lower U.S. Credit Rating to D on Failure to Increase Debt Limit

Standard & Poor’s would cut the U.S. credit rating to its lowest level and Moody’s Investors Service said it will probably reduce its ranking if the government fails to increase the debt limit, leading to a default.

S&P would lower its sovereign top-level AAA ranking to D, the last rung on its scale if the U.S. can’t pay its debt, John Chambers, chairman of the company’s sovereign rating committee, said today. Moody’s said it would probably assign a position in the Aa range, or within three steps of its highest level.

“If any government doesn’t pay its debt on time, the rating of that government goes to D,” Chambers said today in an interview with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television’s “Inside Track”. “Having said that, we think the government will raise the debt ceiling. They’ve raised it 78 times more or less since 1960, often at the last moment, and we think that will be the case this time.”

President Barack Obama, a Democrat, is trying to reach a compromise with Republican lawmakers who are seeking spending cuts before they agree to raise the nation’s borrowing limit, currently capped at $14.3 trillion. The Treasury has said it has until Aug. 2 before its ability to pay the U.S. debt expires.

One-year credit-default swaps are rising this year as investors seek insurance in case of a U.S. default.

Global Economic Calendar (01-July-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 1st July 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Advances Versus Dollar as Greece Passes Austerity, ECB Meeting Nears

The euro reached two-week high against the dollar as investors raised bets the European Central Bank will increase interest rates next week after the passage of austerity measures by Greek lawmakers.

The 17-nation currency also gained against the Swiss franc and South Africa’s rand after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou garnered enough votes for his 78 billion euro ($112 billion) package of budget cuts and state asset sales needed to tap a fifth portion of last year’s rescue. The dollar sank as stocks and commodities rose amid reduced concern about the European debt crisis, buoying risk demand. Canada’s dollar rallied as consumer prices increased more than forecast.

“With the vote out of the way for the time being, we should see a renewed focus on ECB hawkishness,” said Ray Attrill, a New York-based currency strategist for BNP Paribas SA. “Institutional investors have been very sidelined in the last few weeks because of the uncertainty leading up to the vote. If the air was cleared for the time being on Greece, that paves the way for a resumption of delayed euro-dollar buying.”

The shared currency rose 0.4 percent to $1.4422 at 12:37 p.m. in New York, from 1.4371 yesterday. It gained as much as 0.5 percent to the strongest since June 15. The euro was little changed against the yen at 116.64. The dollar fell 0.3 percent to 80.87 yen.

Global Economic Calendar (30-June-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 30th June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Canada’s Currency Advances for Second Day on Gains in Equities, Crude Oil

Canada’s dollar rose for a second day versus its U.S. counterpart, reversing a drop, after global stocks and raw materials including crude oil rose on speculation Greece will adopt an austerity package to avoid default.

The gain trimmed the currency’s loss for June to 1.4 percent in what would be the second straight monthly decrease. The greenback fell against all but one of its 16 most-traded counterparts today, the Swedish krona, amid demand for higher- yielding assets. The Canadian dollar touched a 12-year low versus the Swiss franc.

“I still don’t see the reason yet to get all bearish about the global economy,” David Watt, senior currency strategist at the RBC Capital Markets unit of Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s biggest bank, said by phone from Toronto. “We haven’t changed our forecast” for the Canadian currency, which is 94 cents per U.S. dollar by the end of the third quarter, he said.

The Canadian dollar appreciated 0.3 percent to 98.31 cents per U.S. dollar at 12:26 p.m. in Toronto, compared with 98.61 cents yesterday and 96.85 cents at the end of May. It slipped yesterday to 99.13 cents, the lowest level since March 17. One Canadian dollar purchases $1.0172.

The franc reached 84.12 centimes per Canadian dollar, the strongest since October 1998, before trading at 84.48.

The euro gained against most of its major peers on speculation Greece’s parliament will approve a package of budget cuts and asset sales required to ensure more financial aid.

Global Economic Calendar (29-June-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 29th June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Canadian Currency Strengthens as Oil Pares Loss, Risk Aversion Decreases

Canada’s dollar swung to a gain versus its U.S. counterpart after touching the lowest level in more than three months as U.S. stocks climbed and losses in commodities such as crude oil were tempered.

The Canadian currency, sometimes called the loonie is headed for a 1.9 percent drop in June after a 2.4 percent decline in the previous month. Futures traders reduced bets the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates in 2011 after Canadian and U.S. policy makers reduced growth estimates.

“Everything turned on a dime with equities,” said Steve Butler, director of foreign-exchange trading in Toronto at Bank of Nova Scotia’s Scotia Capital unit. “I don’t see it too much lower with commodities not looking too well supported,” he said, referring to the U.S. dollar.

Canada’s dollar appreciated 0.2 percent to 98.70 cents per U.S. dollar at 1:19 p.m. in Toronto, compared with 98.86 cents on June 24. The loonie earlier fell as much as 0.3 percent to 99.13 cents, the weakest level since March 17. One Canadian dollar buys $1.0138.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.9 percent, the first gain in four days, after regulators issued new capital rules to safeguard the global financial system. The MSCI World, an index of developed-market stocks, advanced 0.4 percent.

Crude futures for August delivery dropped as much as 1.7 percent to $89.61 a barrel in New York, before rebounding to $90.51 a barrel, down 0.7 percent.

The loonie is headed for the first two-month loss in a year as rising concern that debt-strapped Greece will default and an economic slowdown in the U.S. makes interest-rate increases by the Bank of Canada less likely, according to wagers made by futures traders.

The yield on the December 2011 bankers’ acceptances futures contract slipped to 1.33 percent today, the lowest since the contract started trading in December 2008, indicating traders are trimming bets on a rate increase this year.

“Risk dynamics and commodity performance have proved to favor the U.S. dollar overall at the expense of currencies like the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar,” said Jeremy Stretch, executive director of foreign-exchange strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London. “We have rate strips in Australian dollars and Canadian dollars moving higher, which is limiting rate support for the currencies,” he said, referring to the so-called Bax contracts, whose yield falls as the price climbs.

Stretch predicts the currency could depreciate through parity and beyond versus the greenback should Greek lawmakers fail to pass austerity measures. Greek lawmakers will today start debating the 78 billion-euro ($111 billion) budget package that officials say is needed to receive a loan payment and future financing.

“Should Greek politicians press the nuclear buttons we could rally towards C$1.0060 per U.S. dollar relatively easily and potentially above there, C$1.02,” Stretch said.

Canadian consumer prices rose 3.3 percent in May from a year earlier, matching April’s pace, according to the median of 24 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Statistics Canada is due to report the data on June 29 in Ottawa.

Yields on 10-year Government of Canada bonds rose 3 basis points to 2.89 percent. The price of the 3.25 percent security maturing in June 2021 slid 23 cents to C$103.13.

Euro Advances Versus Most Peers on Optimism Greek Austerity Plan Will Pass

The euro strengthened against the majority of its most-traded counterparts amid optimism Greece’s parliament will approve austerity measures required to help avert the currency bloc’s first sovereign default.

The shared currency snapped three-day slumps versus the yen and dollar as the German government welcomed proposals from French lenders on voluntary participation in a roll-over of Greek debt. Stocks rose. New Zealand’s dollar was the biggest loser against the euro as the nation’s trade surplus narrowed.

“France and Germany are giving people confidence,” said Brian Taylor, chief currency trader a Manufacturers & Traders Trust in Buffalo, New York. “The optimism in the equity market today is helping the euro, and people are feeling good that a deal might be struck. We are not buying it because we’re not confident enough yet in what we’re hearing.”

The euro gained 0.5 percent to $1.4264 at 1:33 p.m. in New York, from $1.4188 on June 24. It climbed 1.2 percent to 115.44 yen, from 114.13. The dollar appreciated 0.6 percent against the Japanese currency to 80.93 yen, from 80.43.

“We will be capped on this present move at $1.4325,” Taylor said.

The Swiss franc, which reached a record high 1.1806 per euro last week amid investor concern Greek lawmakers would be unable to pass the austerity plan, fell for the first time in four days. It declined 0.9 percent to 1.1932 per euro.

Greek lawmakers are starting debate today on the five-year, 78 billion-euro ($111 billion) package of budget cuts and asset sales that officials say is needed to receive a loan payment and future financing from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

Global Economic Calendar (28-June-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 28th June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

FNP Squawk Box (27th June 2011)

USD/JPY
Tension, tension, tension. If you look under the Daily chart, you can see much of a squeezing is happening. Reality vs Market Pushers. Lower high is created but the support at 79.75 (1995 April's Low) still holds strong. There are quite a support pushing at this support line, probably government intervention but anything can happen. No one can really dictates FX market and with Japan still suffering from the disaster, let's see what will happen. For me, if price action can break below this strong historical support and create a lower high, I am going in for short.

GBP/JPY
The weakness of GBP against JPY is no mystery with Japan's economy in a turmoil. What you can see happening under GBP/JPY Daily Chart, recently price action looks like it is in a Bull Flag formation with Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Historical record low at 129.32 (1995 April's Low). Honestly, I am holding a short position on this pair but if anything tells me that price action will change its course, I will not hesitate to make an exit. I am looking for price to continue its current course towards 125.50 area, where my target lays.

EUR/USD
Under the Dail chart, as of recent, price action is showing it is in a squeezing mode with Lower Highs and Higher Lows. If price do break out lower from the triangle, please do not rush in to short this pair, I would suggest be patient. Let is move as it wish, wait for a Lower High to join in the fun. With talks and reports for billionaire investors looking for Euro to break up or loosing confidence in it. I would say, news will always be news. It is not good or bad news. Look at the charts, trust the charts and go with the charts.

USD/AUD
This commodity currency pair, I am still looking forward for it to touch 1.0200 area. When will it touch? Previously, I was looking at end of June or early July but anything can happen in the open market. Currently, there is an interim strong support at 1.0450 area. If price action can break this support line and create a lower high, probably it can go down at touch 1.0200 area. Now it is still early to tell but current price action looks like it is possible.

Relax and stay cool everyone. Trade safely and remember, do no rush, not making is always better than losing.

Soros Says a Euro Exit Mechanism Is ‘Probably Inevitable’ Amid Debt Crisis

Billionaire investor George Soros said it’s “probably inevitable” that a mechanism will have to be put in place to allow weaker euro-region economies to exit the single currency.

“We are on the verge of an economic collapse which starts, let’s say, in Greece, but it could easily spread,” Soros, 80, said at a panel discussion in Vienna today on whether liberal democracy is at risk in Europe. “The financial system remains extremely vulnerable.”

Concern Greek lawmakers will fail to pass austerity measures to ensure the next installment of the nation’s bailout is roiling global markets and pushed the euro to a record-low against the Swiss franc last week. Greece is one of three euro- region members to have sought international bailouts amid the sovereign debt crisis.

“I think most of us actually agree that” Europe’s crisis “is actually centered around the euro,” said Soros. “It’s a kind of financial crisis that is really developing. It’s foreseen. Most people realize it. It’s still developing. The authorities are actually engaged in buying time. And yet time is working against them,” he said.

The euro was created in 1999, with 11 member states -- Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Finland, Austria, Portugal, Spain and Ireland. Greece was the 12th country to adopt the shared currency in 2001, while Estonia is the newest member of the euro region, joining this January.

Wen Says China Will Continue to Buy European Government Debt, Support Euro

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao pledged support for Europe as the region copes with a sovereign debt crisis, saying China will remain an investor in European markets.

“China is a long term investor in Europe’s sovereign debt market,” Wen said in translated comments at a press conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Budapest yesterday. “In recent years, we have increased by quite a big margin our holdings of government bonds. We will consistently continue to support Europe and the euro.”

China will buy a “certain amount” of Hungarian government bonds, Wen said. The premier later travelled to the U.K. and will also visit Germany on his three-nation European tour.

European Union leaders vowed on June 24 to stave off a Greek default as long as Prime Minister George Papandreou pushes through a package of budget cuts by the end of the month, pledging to do whatever it takes to stabilize the euro economy.

European stocks fell for an eighth week, the longest stretch of losses since 1998, and German government bonds rose for a third week as concern grew that Greece will default and the Federal Reserve cut its growth forecast for the U.S.

“China is ready to work with Europe to share opportunities, cope with challenges and achieve common development, and to make unremitting efforts for stable development of the world economy and an in-depth development of China-Europe ties,” China’s state-run Xinhua news agency cited Wen as saying yesterday.

Global Economic Calendar (27-June-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 27th June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Falls Versus Dollar, Yen Before EU Leaders Meet on Greece Financing

The dollar rose against all of its 16 major counterparts after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled yesterday that the central bank won’t add to stimulus measures that could erode the value of the currency.

The euro weakened against the greenback before European leaders begin a two-day summit in Brussels today to discuss Greece’s financing needs as the nation struggles to stave off default. The pound dropped below $1.60 for the first time since April 1 as a retail index dropped to the weakest in a year.

“There’s an indication there that the Federal Reserve, come the end of this round of Treasury bond purchases, the bar is high and its unlikely to ease further,” said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. “The dollar may have gotten support from that.”

The dollar rose 1.4 percent to $1.4163 per euro at 9:03 a.m. in New York, from $1.4357 yesterday. The currency strengthened 0.5 percent to 80.72 yen, from 80.29. It reached 80.80 yen, the highest level since June 16.

The dollar advanced for a second day against the yen after policy makers decided to keep the Fed’s balance sheet at a record to spur the economy after completing $600 billion of bond purchases this month in a second round of quantitative easing, known as QE2. The Fed cut growth forecasts for this year and next and raised estimates for the unemployment rate.

The dollar has lost 14 percent in the past 12 months, making it the worst performer among 10 major-economy currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes.

Global Economic Calendar (24-06-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 24th June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Dollar Weakens Before Fed Meeting, Data Forecast to Show Home Sales Drop

The dollar fell against most of its major peers before a report that’s predicted to show new home sales in the U.S. slumped in May, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at a record low.

The dollar weakened to an almost one-week low versus the euro before Fed policy makers begin a two-day meeting amid signs the U.S. economy is slowing. The 17-nation currency rose as European leaders said a Greek default can be avoided and before Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a confidence vote today. It pared gains after a report showed German investor confidence fell.

“The U.S. is in a soft patch and the market has gotten itself pretty bearish,” said Geoff Kendrick, head of European foreign-exchange strategy at Nomura International Plc in London. “You can see that in the two-year Treasury yield which is just ridiculously low. For Europe the main thing in the market today is the Greek confidence vote.”

The dollar depreciated 0.3 percent to $1.4346 per euro as of 6:56 a.m. in New York after reaching $1.4384, the weakest since June 15. The U.S. currency traded little changed at 80.19 yen, from 80.25 yesterday. The euro was 0.2 percent stronger at 114.90 yen.

The pound weakened 0.3 percent to 88.58 pence per euro and was little changed at $1.6195 as Bank of England Markets Director Paul Fisher said further bond purchases to stimulate the economy are possible.

Global Economic Calendar (22-06-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 22nd June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Gains Against Most-Traded Peers on Reassurance About Greek Debt Plan

The euro rose against the majority its most-traded counterparts after European leaders reassured investors a Greek default on its debts can be avoided, easing concern about a spreading regional credit crisis.

The 17-nation shared currency erased its decline versus the yen and dollar, as Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker said Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou had assured him the government would do everything ensure financial aid before a no-confidence vote is his government tomorrow. The Swiss franc remained higher against all its counterparts as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said any participation in the bailout by private investors would have to be voluntary. The Brazilian real gained as the country’s credit was upgraded.

“We’re taking the commentary as still muddling through, which is better for the euro than say, a default occurring tomorrow,” said David Mann, regional head of research for the Americas at Standard Chartered in New York. “People have got ultra-short term in their horizons. The most important thing now is the no confidence vote in Greece tomorrow.”

The euro traded at $1.4318 at 12:48 p.m. in New York, from $1.4306. It earlier declined as much as 0.8 percent to $1.4191. The shared currency gained 0.4 percent against the yen to 114.94 after falling 0.2 percent. The dollar gained 0.3 percent to 80.27 yen from 80.05.

Bernanke May Face ’Self-Induced Paralysis’

As a Princeton University professor, Ben Bernanke castigated the Bank of Japan in 2000 for a “case of self-induced paralysis” that led to a decade of stagnation. Now, the Federal Reserve chairman may be allowing the U.S. central bank to fall into the same trap after its second round of quantitative easing ends this month.

By all but ruling out another cycle of bond purchases, Fed officials have left themselves with little in the way of policy options to respond to slowing growth and rising unemployment. This raises the risk that the U.S. will remain saddled with what Bernanke himself has called a “frustratingly” sluggish recovery that leaves millions of Americans out of work.

“I worry that QE3 will be hostage to QE2,” said Vincent Reinhart, a former director of the Fed’s monetary-affairs division who is now a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “That may lead to that self-induced paralysis” in further easing policy to aid the economy.

Fed officials, who begin a two-day meeting tomorrow to plot monetary strategy, are betting the slowdown will prove short- lived and growth will pick up from July through December as shocks from Japan’s earthquake and an oil-price surge fade.

Global Economic Calendar (21-06-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 21st June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Strengthens From Lows as Germany Signals Compromise on Greek Crisis

The euro rose from a record low versus the Swiss franc as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday she would work with the European Central Bank on a debt plan for Greece.

Europe’s shared currency reversed its losses against the Swiss currency after Merkel retreated from demands that bondholders shoulder a “substantial” share of a Greek rescue, easing concern the region’s sovereign debt problems will worsen. Currencies of commodity exporting countries dropped this week as raw material prices slumped by the most in six weeks. The dollar gained against the euro before a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week.

“The focus for the market is the situation transpiring in Europe and how much risk is in the system,” said Camilla Sutton, head of currency strategy at Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto. “We are moving very quickly from one side of the boat to the other in terms of euro and it’s highlighting how much uncertainty there is.”

The euro rose 0.4 percent to 1.2142 francs, from 1.2098 June 10, and reached a record 1.19466. It weakened 0.3 percent to $1.4306, from $1.4347 last week. The shared currency fell 0.6 percent to 114.52 yen, from 115.24.

The dollar dropped 0.3 percent to 80.05 yen, from 80.32, a fourth straight week loss.

Global Economic Calendar (20-June-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 20th June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Away on vacation...

Hi everyone. There will be no posting and updates for 13th June till17th June. Will be away on vacation and when I am on vacation, I am not allowed to touch the computer. Trade safely everyone. See you again soon....

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FNP Squawk Box - AUD/USD (08-June-2011)

From the rallying of Japanese Yen to the uncertainties of the Euro with Greeks bailout and e-Coli going on, I think I would rather stay away from them for away :)

Looking at AUD/USD Daily chart as of 8th June 2011. What can we see?

From the previous break out, price have moved up and touch the price line of 1.1010. since then, a lot of talks about price would crawl back down towards 1.02even before it actually wants to continue to drive upwards again.

From end April 2011 to end of May 2011, it does seems like it and with how price action moved in the previous days, looks like a big Bull Flag is being formed.

My take is that, if this follows through on the downside, I would want to ride it and hold it and see if it has enough Bear power in the Bull Flag to touch 1.02even. From the looks of it and using similar swing patterns from the first wave, if it is going to touch 1.02even, it can be during late June, it can be earlier and it can be later or not at all. In trading, anything is possible that's where Stop Loss is very important.

From technical indicators, it is supporting my plan with MACD crossing downwards, stochastics downwards with a Lower High. My short position is opened at the price line of 1.0621. Let's see how it goes.

Trade safely everyone...

Yen Rises on Concern European Debt Crisis Will Worsen

The yen strengthened against all its 16 most-traded counterparts as stocks fell and the International Monetary Fund said its 26 billion-euro ($38 billion) loan to Portugal “entails important risks.”

The euro slid from a four-week high versus the dollar after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said bondholders must contribute a “substantial” share of a second aid package for Greece. The yen rose to the strongest in a month against the dollar as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the “frustratingly slow” U.S. recovery warrants sustained monetary stimulus. The MSCI World Index declined 0.5 percent.

“The way the slow-burning European crisis is impacting the euro itself is every so often when people worry about an immediate near-term extra risk coming through it does weigh on the currency,” said David Mann, regional head of research for the Americas at Standard Chartered in New York.

The yen appreciated 0.4 percent to 79.78 per dollar at 8:35 a.m. in New York, from 80.09 yesterday, after touching 79.70, the strongest level since May 5. It strengthened 1 percent to 116.52 per euro, from 117.67. The euro declined 0.6 percent to $1.4604 from $1.4691 yesterday, when it reached $1.4697, the most since May 5.

“It’s reasonable to expect we’re going to test the May low of 79.57 for the yen and beyond that the really big level will be 78.90 will be the next big support level,” Mann said.

Global Economic Calendar (9-June-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 9th June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Egypt’s Developers Pay the Price for Ties to Mubarak’s Regime

The Egyptian revolution that swept Hosni Mubarak from power threatens to hobble the real-estate developers that profited from their ties to the former president.

Talaat Moustafa Group (TMGH) and Palm Hills Developments SAE, the biggest publicly traded builders by assets, have already suffered legal defeats that may force them to give up land they bought cheaply from the old regime. Now the caretaker government, under pressure from the public to clean up the industry, is trying to settle disputed transactions without scaring off investors.

“The main challenge is to avoid putting off private investors, who make up 90 percent of the Egyptian property market,” said Ahmed Badr, head of Middle East property research at Credit Suisse Group AG in Dubai.

When Mubarak was toppled in February, real-estate companies lost the government allies who had shielded them from court decisions challenging land purchases. Two former housing ministers and a tourism minister have since been jailed for squandering public funds. On April 7, the public prosecutor ordered the arrest of Magdi Rasekh, chairman of Six of October Development & Investment (OCDI) Co. The company, known as Sodic, is the country’s No. 3 developer.

Global Economic Calendar (8-June-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 8th June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Rises Most Since January as Officials Increase Greece Financial Aid

The euro gained the most against the dollar in four months this week after Greece was given more assistance to address its debt crisis, boosting confidence the region’s nations will be able to meet their obligations.

Europe’s shared currency reached a four-week high yesterday after Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads the group of euro-area finance ministers, said they agreed to pay the next installment to Greece under last year’s 110 billion-euro ($161 billion) bailout. The U.S. currency dropped to a record against the Swiss franc after the jobless rate unexpectedly rose to 9.1 percent. European Central Bank policy makers may consider increasing interest rates when they meet next week.

“People are taking the package as a positive factor,” said David Mann, regional head of research for the Americas at Standard Chartered Plc in New York. “Combined with the relative performance of the data out of the U.S. versus Europe, that has been a positive for now for the euro.”

The euro rose 2.2 percent to $1.4635, from $1.4319 May 27, and touched $1.4643, the highest level since May 5. It was the currency’s biggest weekly gain since Jan. 14. It added 1.6 percent to 117.48 yen, from 115.67 last week. The dollar dropped 0.6 percent to 80.34 yen, from 80.80.

Global Economic Calendar (6-June-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 6th June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Gains After Moody’s Considers U.S. Debt Review

The euro gained versus the dollar to the highest level in almost a month as Moody’s Investors Service said it may place the U.S. government’s rating under review for possible downgrade and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she’s committed to the shared currency.

The euro extended gains after Moody’s said its decision will be based on progress by Congress and the Obama administration on increasing the statutory debt limit in coming weeks. The euro also strengthened as the region’s policy makers considered asking investors to reinvest in new Greek debt when existing bonds mature. The dollar dropped against the majority of its most-traded peers as weaker economic data added to speculation the nation’s recovery is slowing.

“It’s still a major theme and I don’t see any compelling reason in the medium term to actually want to be a dollar buyer,” said Mark McCormick, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. “The economics fundamentally support dollar weakness across the board and that would just add to the fiscal risk premium.”

The euro rose 1.2 percent to $1.4502 as of 1:47 p.m. in New York from $1.4328 yesterday. It touched $1.4514, the most since May 6. Europe’s common currency climbed 1 percent to 117.19 yen. The dollar fell 0.1 percent to 80.84 yen.

South Africa’s rand and Norway’s krone rose the most among the major currencies as commodities advanced. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials rose 0.4 percent.

Global Economic Calendar (3-June-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 3rd June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Franc, Yen Rally as Signs of Economic Slowing Fuel Increased Haven Demand

The Swiss franc and the yen gained against their major counterparts as weaker data from the U.S. to China increases concern the global economic recovery is slowing, boosting demand for haven assets.

The franc reached a record against the dollar and the euro after manufacturing in the U.S. and China grew at the slowest pace in at least nine months. Currencies of commodity-exporting countries weakened as raw material prices dropped and stocks slumped, damping demand for higher-yielding assets. The dollar pared earlier losses linked to a private jobs report that showed slower-than-forecast employment gains in May.

“It’s a pretty nasty witch’s brew for risky assets,” said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. The franc, the yen “will strengthen in times of stress.”

The franc rose 1.5 percent to 84.16 centimes per dollar at 1:30 p.m. in New York, reaching 83.83 centimes, the strongest since at least 1971. It added 1.6 percent versus the euro, touching 1.20855, the most on record. The yen gained 0.7 percent to 80.93 per dollar, from 81.52 yesterday.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 53.5 in May from 60.4 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. Economists projected the gauge would drop to 57.1, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates of the 83 economists polled ranged from 53 to 60.

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 52 from 52.9 in April, the lowest level since August, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in an e-mailed statement. The index has a seasonal pattern of falling in May, economists said before the release.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 1.4 percent, snapping a four-day advance, and the Thompson/Reuters CRB Index of raw materials fell 1.2 percent.

Global Economic Calendar (2-June-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 2nd June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Why Carney Proves Different From Other Central Bankers With Listing Loonie

Canada’s currency is poised to weaken as investors bet Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney will keep interest rates low to protect the economy instead of fighting inflation by raising interest rates.

Falling unemployment, faster growth than in the U.S. and a shrinking deficit drove Canada’s dollar to the highest in more than three years against the greenback on April 29 as traders anticipated Carney would join central bankers from Europe to China in boosting rates. Instead the 46-year-old former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. managing director kept interest rates unchanged today, downplay inflation and highlighting risks to the Canadian economy from a strong currency.

Since then, the so-called loonie has dropped against 14 of its 16 most-traded counterparts, falling 2.8 percent against the Swiss franc and 4.8 percent versus New Zealand’s dollar. Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecasts the currency will fall 10 percent through 2012 against the greenback. Canadian-dollar bulls outnumber bears by the narrowest margin this year according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

“All of the fundamentals that one would traditionally look at scream out for a rate hike,” said Eric Lascelles, chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada Global Asset Management, which oversees about C$250 billion ($257 billion). “The reason the market is so cautious on the prospect of rate hikes is the Canadian dollar is still quite strong and the Bank of Canada is expressing a lot of concern about it.”

Global Economic Calendar (1-June-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 1st June 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)