Binary Options (Trades Done) 14 APR 20114

Binary Options - 14 Apr 2014

5 Done Deals: 3 Wins, 1 Break-even, 1 Lose

(3 x 70%) + (1 x 0%) - (1 x 100%) = 210% + 0% - 100% = 110% Profit (Based on per trade size).

I am out for tonight.

Dollar Snaps Five-Day Losing Stretch Amid Drop in Risk Appetite

The dollar ended five days of losses against a basket of its major counterparts as investor risk appetite shrank and global stocks dropped.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose from almost a five-month low as U.S. equities declined. The Swiss franc gained versus most major peers, while Brazil’s real pared a fourth weekly advance. Futures traders turned bullish on the Australian dollar for the first time in 11 months.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, rose as much as 0.3 percent to 1,007.65 before trading at 1,006.46 at 5 p.m. in New York, up 0.1 percent. It sank yesterday to 1,004.01, the lowest since Oct. 30. The gauge fell 1 percent this week.

The dollar was little changed at $1.3885 per euro, dropping 1.3 percent this week, the most since the five days ended Sept. 20. The U.S. currency gained 0.1 percent to 101.62 yen, paring a weekly decline to 1.6 percent. The yen depreciated 0.1 percent to 141.13 per euro.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index of U.S. stocks fell 1 percent, and the MSCI World Index dropped 1.1 percent. Equities declined amid concern that company earnings are failing to justify rising share prices.

Yen Rises to Three-Week High on China Exports

The yen gained to the strongest in three weeks against the dollar as an unexpected decline in Chinese exports revived demand for safer assets after the Federal Reserve damped bets of raising interest rates.

The dollar rose from a five-month low against a basket of peers as the smallest number of Americans since before the last recession filed applications for unemployment benefits last week. Sweden’s krona slumped after a government report showed consumer prices dropped twice as much as economists predicted. The Australian dollar increased on jobs gains.

The yen advanced 0.4 percent to 101.57 per dollar as of 10:55 a.m. in New York after appreciating to 101.42, the strongest level since March 19. Japan’s currency gained 0.2 percent to 140.99 per euro. The dollar fell 0.2 percent to $1.3880 after sliding to $1.3883, the weakest since March 19.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major counterparts, fell 0.1 percent to 1,004.94. It earlier slid to 1,004.08, the lowest level since Oct. 30.

Dollar Falls to Lowest in 5 Months as Emerging Currencies Gain

The dollar dropped to the lowest level in more than five months against a basket of peers as a decline in currency volatility spurred investors to seek out higher-yielding assets.

The U.S. currency fell for a second day against the euro after a U.S. job report last week showed employers added fewer workers than economists forecast, damping speculation the recovery is gaining momentum. Australia’s dollar strengthened along with the currencies of New Zealand and South Africa. The yen rose as the Bank of Japan refrained from adding extra stimulus at a policy meeting. A Bloomberg index of emerging-market currencies reached an almost four-month high.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 of its major counterparts, declined 0.5 percent to 1,009.19 at 10:58 a.m. in New York after falling to 1,008.58, the lowest level since Oct. 31.

The dollar dropped 0.3 percent to $1.3789 per euro after sliding 0.3 percent yesterday. The greenback depreciated 0.9 percent to 102.16 yen after sliding to 102.07, the weakest since March 28. Japan’s currency rose 0.6 percent to 140.86 per euro

Loonies climbed the strongest in six weeks on employment growth

Canada’s dollar gained to the strongest level in more than six weeks after the economy added more jobs than forecast in March, rebounding from a decline the previous month, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell.

The currency, called the loonie, rose versus 10 of its 16 major peers as employment in the U.S., Canada’s biggest trade partner, grew less than projected. The loonie has been the biggest loser this year among major currencies on bets slowing growth would lead the Bank of Canada to wait longer than the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The bank meets April 16. Governor Stephen Poloz said March 18 a rate cut might be possible if the economy worsens.

The loonie, nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, gained 0.5 percent to C$1.0981 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto. It was the strongest closing level since Feb. 18. The currency gained for a second week, appreciating 0.7 percent. One loonie buys 91.07 U.S. cents.

Canada’s government bonds rose, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year security down the most in three weeks. It fell as much as six basis points, the biggest intraday drop since March 13, to 2.49 percent. The price of the 2.5 percent debt due in June 2024 increased 49 cents to C$100.10.

The Canadian dollar has declined 3.3 percent this year against its U.S. counterpart, the worst performance among 16 major peers. The loonie has fallen 4 percent this year in a basket of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, also the biggest loss. The U.S. dollar declined 0.4 percent, and the euro lost 0.7 percent.

Binary Options (Trades Done) 31 Mar 2014

Binary Options - 31 Mar 2014

Not really in the best mojo tonight.

5 done deals: 3 wins, 2 lose

(3 x 76%) - (2 x 100%) = 228% - 200% = 28% profit (Based on per trade size)

Canada Dollar Bearish Bets Fall Most Ever on China Easing Signs

Futures traders reduced bets that the Canadian dollar will decline against its U.S. counterpart by the most on record amid speculation China will add monetary stimulus, boosting demand for raw materials and energy.

Speculators cut wagers on Canada’s dollar weakening against the greenback, known as net shorts, by 36,590 positions as of March 25 from a week earlier, the most in records going back to 1993, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The shift reduced short positions to 33,215 contracts, from 69,805 on March 21.

The Canadian dollar, nicknamed the loonie for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, declined 0.3 percent to C$1.1061 in Toronto trading after gaining earlier to C$1.1001, the strongest level since March 7. It climbed 1.5 percent for the week, the most since July, snapping three weeks of losses.

The Aussie dollar gained 1.8 percent this week, the most since the five days ended Feb. 7, to 92.47 U.S. cents. It touched 92.95 cents today, the highest since Nov. 21.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said he’s confident of keeping his nation’s growth in a “reasonable range.” The country’s manufacturing industry weakened for a fifth straight month, according to a preliminary measure for March released March 24.

Fed of 1970s Shows Capacity May Mislead

The decision of central banks to focus more on economic slack as a barometer of when inflation will become a problem could backfire, if history is any guide.

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank have started using the level of spare capacity in their economies as a way to foretell when they will start reversing easy monetary policies. The more capacity, the bigger the output gap between actual and potential economic growth and the longer officials can keep interest rates low because price pressures will be sluggish.

“While this sounds plausible, past experience suggests that central banks tend to hike rates too slowly, with corresponding risks for price inflation,” Christoph Balz and Bernd Weidensteiner, economists at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said in a March 21 report.

The problem is that output gaps are hard to estimate and better done in hindsight. To demonstrate that, the Commerzbank economists looked at what the Fed would have estimated for the output gap in the early 1970s, given the data they had available from the prior three decades.

The initial impression was of an output gap of minus 1 percent for 1974, which would have encouraged the U.S. central bank to be “moderately expansionary,” said Balz and Weidensteiner.

In reality, the economy was later shown to have been slightly over-stretched in 1974. Repeating the exercise for 1983, the output gap the Fed would have calculated at the time was minus 1 percent, versus the minus 4 percent it proved to be.

“In other words, a more restrictive policy would have been appropriate in 1974, but in 1983 a more expansionary policy was required,” said Commerzbank. “This demonstrates the uncertainty prevailing when monetary policy conclusions are drawn from the current data set.”

With the Fed’s new lines of communication aimed at damping expectations of rate hikes, the risk is the Fed “will again probably raise rates too late and too cautiously,” said the economists. This time the “greater danger” may be that loose monetary policy fans inflation in asset prices.

USD/JPY (29 MARCH 2014)

USD/JPY - Under daily chart, from late December 2013 till now, the movement of price is seem to be on a closing wedge. Squeezing in with lower highs and higher lows.

Trading with caution, factoring in the closing wedge resistance and support. If a break out does occur, do not be trigger happy. Proceed with extreme caution.

If it does break above the closing wedge, our first resistance to look at will be around 103.75, the high of 7th March 2014.

Binary Options - Trades Done (28 MAR 2014)

Binary Options (28 MAR 2014)

3 done deals: 2 wins, 1 break-even.

(2 x 76%) + (1 x 0%) = 152% profit (Based on per trade size)

Binary Options (TRADES DONE) 24 MAR 2014

Binary Options - 24 Mar 2014

Took a look here and there, jumping from USD/JPY, EUR/USD & GBP/JPY.

8 done deals: 6 Win & 2 Lose

Computation: (1 x 67%) + (5 x 76%) - (2 x 100%) = 247% Profit (Based on per trade size)

Losing stamina, I am out for today.

Gold Decline

Gold futures in New York declined 3.1 percent last week to $1,336 an ounce, while the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials fell 0.5 percent. The MSCI All-Country World index of equities rose 0.7 percent, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, rose 0.6 percent. The Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index fell 0.5 percent.

The net-bullish position in gold rose 13 percent to 138,429 futures and options in the week ended March 18, the most since November 2012, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Short holdings fell for a fifth week, the longest streak in three years.

Investor holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion posted the first weekly decline in four last week. On March 19, the Fed cut its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion. Yellen said the asset buying could end this fall and benchmark interest rates could rise about six months later. Gold jumped 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system and held borrowing costs near zero percent to boost the economy.

European Stocks Decline

European stocks retreated, after the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s biggest weekly advance in more than a month, as world leaders gather in The Hague to discuss tension over Ukraine and a manufacturing gauge for China and Germany slipped. U.S. index futures and Asian shares rose.

Centrica Plc declined 1.2 percent after a report said U.K.’s biggest utilities may be split. Royal KPN (KPN) NV lost 2.4 percent after Citigroup Inc. downgraded the stock. CEZ AS, the biggest Czech utility, climbed 3.4 percent after the nation’s finance minister said the government is seeking a 100 percent dividend payout.

The Stoxx 600 fell 0.7 percent to 325.48 at 9:27 a.m. in London. The benchmark index advanced 1.8 percent last week as Russian President Vladimir Putin said he won’t seek territory beyond Crimea. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.2 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.1 percent.

Leaders of the U.S., the European Union, China, Japan and others meet today as concern grows that Russia is massing soldiers on Ukraine’s border. U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague wrote in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph that Russia’s troop buildup means the crisis may worsen, calling the situation the most serious risk to European security in the 21st century.

Asian Currencies reaction on Fed Outlook.

Asian currencies had their steepest weekly loss in nine months after the Federal Reserve increased its 2015 interest-rate forecast and China doubled the yuan’s trading band.

The Fed, while indicating this week that the target rate will stay at zero to 0.25 percent in 2014, said it may reach 1 percent by the end of 2015, higher than 0.75 percent predicted previously. The yuan completed a record five-day drop as China’s central bank cut the daily reference rate to the lowest since November, almost a week after it increased the maximum limit the currency can diverge from the fixing to 2 percent.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-active currencies, slid 0.7 percent from March 14 to 114.51 in Singapore, the biggest decline since June. The yuan slumped 1.2 percent to 6.2250 per dollar in Shanghai and reached 6.2370 yesterday, the lowest level since February last year, China Foreign Exchange Trade System prices showed.
‘Surprised Markets’

The U.S. central bank trimmed its bond-buying program, which has fueled fund flows to emerging markets, this week by a further $10 billion to $55 billion. It started cutting the stimulus at the beginning of the year from $85 billion. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said March 19 that rates could start rising “around six months” following an end to the purchases later this year.

The Philippine peso sank 1.5 percent to 45.31 per dollar this week, Malaysia’s ringgit fell 0.9 percent to 3.3085 and Taiwan’s dollar slid 0.9 percent to NT$30.652. Indonesia’s rupiah lost 0.6 percent to 11,423, South Korea’s won weakened 0.7 percent to 1,080.4 and Thailand’s baht dropped 0.3 percent to 32.381. India’s rupee climbed 0.4 percent to 60.9250.

China’s currency dropped amid signs growth in Asia’s largest economy is cooling after reports showed an unexpected slump in exports and slowing factory output. The risk of further defaults is also weighing on sentiment. The People’s Bank of China cut the daily fixing by a total of 0.21 percent this week to 6.1475 per dollar.

Bank Negara Malaysia trimmed the lower end of its estimate for 2014 economic growth this week, saying inflation will hurt household spending amid an uneven global recovery. Gross domestic product may increase 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent in 2014, after climbing 4.7 percent last year, according to the central bank’s annual report issued March 19. That’s wider than the Finance Ministry’s previous range of 5 percent to 5.5 percent. Inflation may come in between 3 percent to 4 percent, compared with 2.1 percent in 2013, it said.

Binary Options (Trades Done) 17 Mar 2014

Binary Options - 17 Mar 2014

Started hunting at 9pm (SG Time). 6 done deals.

6 done deals: 4 win, 2 Lose

(4 x 76%) - (2 x 100%) = 104% return (Based on per trade size)

Closing shop for today. Tomorrow will be another. Hidden Secret, over and out....

Binary Options (Trades Done) 13 Mar 2013

Tiring day, still recovering from flu. Took a look at the charts after dinner. After reviewing it, knowing I do not want to drag it to a long night, conservative plan for tonight, no aggressive entry. Decision to go ahead with USD/JPY.

(Binary Options) 2 Done deals: 2 wins.

2 x 76% = 152% profit.

I am out.

Binary Options (Trades Done) 12 Mar 2014

Feeling a little better, recovering from the flu but still weak.

Made 3 done deals on Binary Options with USD/JPY after a quick review.

3 done deals: 2 wins (1 x usual trade size, 1 x slightly higher than twice usual trade size), 1 lose.

Rough computation: 166% profit (Based on usual trade size)

Going to get some rest. I am out.

Binary Options (TRADES DONE) 11 Mar 2014

Still feeling under the weather =(  6 done deals with first one error trade, didn't double check on the pair before doing the deal >_< Daaaammit...

6 done deals: 3 wins (2 x Slightly more than usual trade size & 1 x usual trade size), 3 lose (Usual trade size).

Rough computation: 156% profit. (Based on per usual trade size)

Sorry no charts attached tonight. Just want to pop my pills and KO. I am out.

So far for March 2014, month to date has been 77.79% return.

Binary Options - 10 Mar 2014

Sickly day for me. Took a look here and there. More focused on USD/JPY.

4 Done deals on Binary Options: 3 wins (2 usual trade size, 1 slightly double trade size) and 1 lose.

Rough computation: 210% profit (Based on usual trade size)

I am out. Going to take my medications again and KO.

Dollar Rise against Yen.

The dollar rose to a six-week high against the yen as U.S. employment gains exceeded forecasts, boosting speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue to pare monetary stimulus that’s seen as debasing the currency.

The U.S. currency rallied as the Labor Department reported employers added 175,000 jobs in February, compared with the median estimate of 149,000 in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Canada’s dollar declined versus the majority of its most-traded counterparts after employers unexpectedly eliminated jobs last month. The euro reached the highest level in more than two years versus the dollar as bets on further European Central Bank stimulus waned, boosting demand for the 18-nation currency.

The dollar gained 0.3 percent to 103.33 yen at 1:26 p.m. in New York, reaching the strongest level since Jan. 23. The euro added 0.1 percent to $1.3875 after touching $1.3915, the highest level since Oct. 31, 2011. The shared currency gained 0.4 percent to 143.36 yen.

Binary Options (TRADE DONE) 07 Mar 2914 - Update

After doing my stuffs and this week's evaluation. Spotted this one irresistible entry. Went in for one more =]

Updated done deals for tonight, 4 done deals: 4 wins

4 x 76% = 304% Profit (Based on per trade size)

I am out for real now =] 

Binary Options (TRADES DONE) 07 MAR 2014

Started hunting at 11:00pm (SG Time). After quick review, decision was to go with USD/JPY.

3 done deal: 3 Wins

3 x 76% = 228% Profit (Based on per trade size)

Seems to have more opportunities but I am abiding to my money management rules =]

AUD/USD TRADE (06 MAR 2014)

Aside from my Binary Options, this is my FX Spot done deal.

Open the position with AUD/USD at 06 Mar, 1:00am (SG Time) at price of 0.89829. Placed my initial TP at 0.9045, immediate resistance. 1min later, after quick review, decision made to change TP to 0.9075, sensitive resistance price line. Stop loss was placed at previous low of 0.8885, near the low of 03 Mar. At 06 Mar, 9:41pm, stop loss is moved to entry at 0.8930.

Trade closed at 0.9025 TP, 06 Mar, 11:02 pm (SG Time).

For this FX Spot done deal, 92.2pips profit.

Singapore's 2012 GDP growth revised up to 1.3%

Singapore's 2012 GDP growth revised up to 1.3%

The Singapore economy grew 1.5% yoy in the 4th qtr of 2012, more than the 1.1% official advance estimates issued in Jan showed. As a result, Singapore's GDP grew a larger 1.3% in 2012, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said on Fri, revising up its advance estimate of 1.2% growth.

On a q/q, seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy grew 3.3% in Q4 2012. This too was larger than the 1.8% advance estimate of growth, and reversed a 4.6% contraction in the 3rd qtr.

The outlook for Singapore's economy remains "cautiously positive", as it reiterated its 2013 growth forecast of 1 to 3%. Although global macroeconomic conditions have stabilised in recent mths as financial mkt conditions improved, global economic growth is likely to remain subdued.

The US housing markt has shown improvement but the strength of its economic recovery will be restrained by fiscal tightening. In the Euro zone, economic growth will likely stay stagnant, weighed down by ongoing fiscal tightening, private sector de-leveraging, as well as high unemployment rates.

Euro Touches Six-Week Low as ECB Bank Repayments Miss Forecast

The euro touched the lowest level against the dollar in six weeks after the European Central Bank said institutions will repay less of Long-Term Refinancing Operation borrowing next week than economists forecast. 

The 17-nation currency trimmed gains versus the yen as the European Commission forecast the region’s economy will shrink for a second year in 2013. The Australian dollar rose the most in seven weeks after central bank Governor Glenn Stevens said the bar for intervention was high. Japan’s currency weakened amid a White House meeting between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Barack Obama, who made no mention of the yen during remarks after the discussion. 

“The market is trading on confidence and sentiment, and the LTRO news shows that tail risk has shrunk less than we thought,” Greg Anderson, New York-based head of Group of 10 currency strategy at Citigroup Inc., said in a telephone interview.

“What we’ve seen this week is the last of the euro longs getting squeezed out.” A long position is a bet that an asset will rise. 

The euro fell was little changed at $1.3194 at 5 p.m. in New York after touching $1.3145, the lowest level since Jan. 10. The shared currency declined 1.2 percent this week. It rose 0.3 percent 123.22 yen today after strengthening as much as 0.8 percent. The yen weakened 0.3 percent to 93.42 per dollar. 

The euro may depreciate to the 2013 low of $1.2998 it reached on Jan. 4 if it declines past a support level at $1.3151, Cilline Bain, a London-based technical analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote today in a client note. Support is an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered.

EU Says Euro Zone to Shrink in 2013 as Unemployment Rises

The euro-area economy will shrink for a second year in 2013, driving unemployment higher as governments, consumers and companies curb spending, the European Commission said.

 The 17-nation euro zone’s gross domestic product will fall 0.3 percent this year, compared with a November prediction of 0.1 percent growth, the Brussels-based commission forecast today. Unemployment will climb to 12.2 percent, up from the previous estimate of 11.8 percent and 11.4 percent last year, it said. 

Europe’s labor market “is a serious concern,” Marco Buti, head of the commission’s economics department, said in a statement. “This has grave social consequences and will, if unemployment becomes structurally entrenched, also weigh on growth perspectives going forward.” 

The euro area is hamstrung by fragile public finances, vulnerable banks and a weak economy feeding, Buti said.

 The economic weakness contrasts with financial-market improvements, as nations, banks and households improve their balance sheets and hold off on new demand.

The commission cut its forecast for the German economy, Europe’s largest, to 0.5 percent growth this year, from 0.8 forecast in November, due to a drop in euro-area demand that damps export and investment.

The outlook for next year was more upbeat, with 2014 forecasts of 1.4 percent growth and 12.1 percent unemployment in the euro area. Across the 27-nation European Union, the commission is projecting 0.1 percent growth for 2013 and 1.6 percent growth in 2014, after a 0.3 percent contraction last year. 

The Stoxx 600 Index (SXXP) has climbed about 3 percent this year after a 14 percent advance last year. The euro has gained 6 percent against the dollar the past six months.

20-Feb-2013 (Binary Trades)

It is only Wednesday and I am already feeling burnt out =( This is not a good sign.

Anyway, tonight, 20-Feb-2013, Singapore's time zone.

With the German 10-y Bond Auction at around 6:38pm and a series of american's data at 9:30pm, I am still very cautious on opening any positions. Total this evening, I have only 3 done deals,, winning deals that is with binary dealing desk. The movement between point of entry and contract expiry time was very slim which is only lucrative with binary desk. 

All three trades entered with my algo entry, which under normal circumstances, I would not have opened at all, slightly on the risky side.

1 done deal with EUR/USD at 6:44pm and 2 done deals with USD/CAD at 9:54pm and 10:14pm.

EUD/USD has a nice movements on the down side before turning around a little but we are sticking to our trade plan in the trading window. That is why after cooking and having my dinner, I went on to look at USD/CAD which I aggressively entered using my algo entry.

Market jumped and still moving as I am typing this but I am done for tonight boys. 3 winning deals, enough for me tonight with 543% (81% each). Trade safely muchachos. Those who are still holding USD/CAD over at the spot dealing desk, keep holding to it, weekly data looks fine, no reason to bail out just yet.

15-Feb-2013 (Binary Trades)

It has been a crazy and tiring week. Forecasting data for my workplace has been quite a challenge at the moment due festive period of CNY. As mentioned before, due to the festivity, we have decided to put our FX Spot off the books during the festive period of CNY but we are still rolling with Binary desk.

Not much done this week with extra caution being put into place and we are glad we did. Smaller gains but more percentage wins is worth the effort and straining from jumping into aggressive deals.

Today, or rather tonight with respect to Singapore time, 15-Feb-2013. We are focused more into the night with Canadians releasing their month/month Manufacturing Sales data and US releasing their Empire State Manufacturing Index data and few others. During this window of trading, as per our trade plan, we look at USD/CAD.

Upon Canadians release, it jumped. On my end, I had waited for entry. It turned out well and got out at Binary expiry. Then after, I went for a second entry and it turned out positive. Both using our algo entry. For those that just came back from vacation, we are sticking to Stochs (5,3,3) and the rest remains the same.

Only two deals for me tonight with 181% each. I am out boys, brain capacity is maxed out. Those that are still rolling, be careful, trade safely. It is Friday and there might be interesting movements or dull. Anything can happen, so do not let your guard down.

11-Feb-2013 (Binary Trades)

Fairly quiet day with those celebrating Lunar New Year. It is a public holiday here in Singapore and most in Asia, the banks in Japan observing National Foundation Day and China observing Lunar New Year, they close for celebration.

The rest of the world is still doing business as usual.

To the boys rolling the desk today with me, we are mostly looking at AUD/USD. It has been the downside bias since morning but I personally did not rush to go in. Time is what I have today.

Total done with 162% ROI today with binary desk. Two trades done based on our algo entry. That's all from my end. To the rest, that is still rolling. Be extra careful of spikes. We are staying out on spots during this festive period.

Obama to Propose Spending to Boost Jobs in State of Union Speech

President Barack Obama will use his State of the Union address this week to focus on job creation and the struggles of American families, marking a renewed emphasis on the economic issues that defined his first term. 

The president will offer proposals for spending on infrastructure, clean energy and education, according to a senior official briefed on the speech. He will also stress the agenda laid out in his inauguration address, pushing Congress for action on immigration, gun control and climate change. 

Obama previewed his Feb. 12 speech in remarks before House Democrats meeting in Virginia last week, where he advocated for “an economy that works for everybody.” 

“I’m going to be talking about making sure that we’re focused on job creation here in the United States of America,” he said. 

Democrats and Republicans are targeting their post-election messages on the economy as the latest unemployment report shows the nation continues to only slowly create jobs. Payrolls rose 157,000 in January after accelerating more than previously estimated at the end of 2012, the Labor Department said on Feb. 1. The jobless rate increased to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent. 

The economy unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter at a 0.1 percent annual rate, restrained by a plunge in defense spending and dwindling inventory growth. 

Obama is expected to use his address to push for immigration legislation that includes a pathway to citizenship for the country’s estimated 11 million undocumented workers and on gun-control proposals, including a ban on assault weapons and universal background checks for gun buyers.

Happy New Year of the Snake

FNP wishes all readers, traders, friends, colleagues, partners and everyone that is celebrating the lunar new year, a Happy, Prosperous, Healthy and Blessed year of the snake.

=^_^=

Nikkei 225 (06-Feb-2013)

How will the Nikkei 225 perform today? It has been undecided yesterday with price action close below opening.

Eaton CEO Says China GDP Report Overstates Growth Rate

Eaton Corp. (ETN) Chief Executive Officer Sandy Cutler said China’s official 7.8 percent economic growth for 2012 may have overstated expansion by twice the real rate, and is only now headed for a “legitimate” 8 percent gain.

Based on indicators such as consumer consumption and electric power usage, China’s gross domestic product probably grew 3 percent to 4 percent last year, Cutler said today in a telephone interview. The economy is accelerating now that China is past the distractions from its leadership change, he said.

“That’s what we and so many multinational companies have been feeling there in China for the last year and a half, the economy really hasn’t been growing at 7 or 8 percent,” Cutler said. “If we could get back to an 8 percent growth rate in China for 2013, that would be a pretty darn good year.”

Cutler’s assessment, delivered after Eaton’s quarterly earnings report, suggested that China masked the extent of the slowdown preceding Xi Jinping’s elevation to general secretary of the ruling Communist Party in November. The government reported that GDP growth decelerated from 9.3 percent in 2011 and 10.4 percent in 2010.

China tended to “tamp down” reported GDP expansion as it ran at 12 percent or more in 2006 and 2007, Cutler said. The government boosted the official tally after slowing growth to quell inflation, said Cutler, 61, who presides over a manufacturer that got more than half its 2012 revenue of $16.3 billion from outside the U.S.

Euro Extends Gains Amid Bets ECB Won’t Weaken Currency

The euro gained against the dollar on speculation that European Central Bank policy makers aren’t concerned a stronger currency will slow the economic recovery.

The 17-nation common currency advanced versus the majority of its 16 most-traded peers as the ECB’s balance sheet shrank to the smallest in almost a year on early loan repayments by euro- area banks even as French President Francois Hollande warned that a rising currency may deepen the recession. The yen touched the weakest in almost three years against the dollar as the Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he will step down on March 19, three weeks early. The ECB meets on Feb. 7.

“I think that the euro could continue to climb higher,” Douglas Borthwick, a managing director and head of foreign exchange at Chapdelaine FX in New York, said in a telephone interview. “The Japanese said ‘we are weakening our currency,’ the British are staring down the barrel of a downgrade and the U.S. is weakening the dollar through quantitative easing. The euro should be trading at the $1.40 level in the next few months.”

The euro strengthened 0.5 percent to $1.3583 at 5 p.m. in New York, lower than its five-year average of $1.3715. The yen slid 1.4 percent to 93.63 per dollar after touching 93.66, weakest since May 2010. The euro rose 1.9 percent to 127.18 yen after reaching 127.22, the highest since April 2010.

Dell Taken Private as PC Slump Hastens $24 Billion Buyout

Dell Inc. (DELL) is going private in a $24.4 billion leveraged buyout that signals the waning of the personal-computer industry it once dominated.

In the largest LBO since the financial crisis, Chief Executive Officer Michael Dell and Silver Lake Management LLC are paying $13.65 a share, the companies said today in a statement. That’s 25 percent more than the closing price of $10.88 on Jan. 11, the last trading day before Bloomberg News reported the discussions.

Michael Dell is taking back majority control of the company he started in a University of Texas dormitory almost three decades ago after struggling to equip the PC maker for a new generation of competitors in mobile and cloud computing. He’s wagering that he can more effectively transform Dell into a provider of a broad range of products for corporations outside the scrutiny of public investors, even while encumbering it with about $17 billion in additional debt.

Shirakawa Accelerates BOJ Exit as Abe Presses for Stimulus

Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will step down on March 19, almost three weeks before his term was due, accelerating a leadership transition that may aid Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s campaign for aggressive easing. 

Shirakawa, 63, will exit the same time as two deputy governors, he told reporters in Tokyo. He was scheduled to leave on April 8. Japan’s currency slid after the comments, adding to losses against the dollar since Abe’s administration took office in December on a platform of greater monetary stimulus and a reversal of yen strength that has hurt export competitiveness. 

The outgoing chief assured the stability of Japan’s financial system with liquidity injections during the global credit crisis, and again in the wake of the record March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. At the same time, his failure to end the nation’s trenchant deflation stoked criticism from lawmakers, and administration officials have pledged a replacement who shares Abe’s determination to end price declines. 

“The governor’s resignation will likely push forward the timing of bold monetary easing action,” said Akito Fukunaga, chief rates strategist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo, a unit of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “Shirakawa has probably judged that it’s better for the BOJ to start with a new top three who have similar views.”

Euro Remains Lower Versus Yen on Italy, Spain Uncertainty

The euro fell against the yen, following yesterday’s drop which was the biggest since June, amid corruption allegations against Spanish Premier Mariano Rajoy and uncertainty ahead of Italian elections this month.

The 17-nation currency halted this year’s climb against the dollar before European Central Bank policy makers meet on Feb. 7. The yen rose against most major peers as investors bought haven assets after Asian equities slid. Australia’s dollar fell after the central bank kept interest rates unchanged while saying the inflation outlook allows scope further easing.

Asian Stocks Fall From 18-Month High on Europe as Aussie Weakens

Asian stocks fell from an 18-month high on renewed concern about Europe’s debt crisis and as forecasts from HTC Corp. to Hitachi Ltd. (6501) disappointed investors. Metals declined and Australia’s dollar weakened.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) lost 0.8 percent at 12:53 p.m. in Tokyo, as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slumped 1.6 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed after a 1.2 percent slump yesterday. Palladium slipped 0.8 percent and zinc retreated 1 percent. The Australian dollar fell 0.4 percent versus the greenback after the central bank left interest rates unchanged. The euro weakened against the dollar after falling the most in a month yesterday.

Too-Big-to-Fail Too Hard to Fix Amid Calls to Curb Banks

Top U.S. bank regulators and lawmakers are pushing for action to limit the risk that the government again winds up financing the rescue of one or more of the nation’s biggest financial institutions.

Officials leading the debate, including Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Senator Sherrod Brown, share the view that the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act failed to curb the growth of large banks after promising in its preamble to “end too big to fail.”

Strategies under consideration range from legislation that would cap the size of big banks or make them raise more capital to regulatory actions to discourage mergers or require that financial firms hold specified levels of long-term debt to convert into equity in a failure.

The push for revisiting the law or writing new rules “is absolutely driven by a sense that Dodd-Frank did not end too big to fail,” said Mark Calabria, director of financial-regulation studies at the Cato Institute in Washington and a former aide to Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama when he was the ranking Republican on the Banking Committee.

Three of the four largest U.S. banks -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) -- are bigger today than they were in 2007, heightening the risk of economic damage if one gets into trouble. JPMorgan’s 2012 trading loss of more than $6.2 billion from a bet on credit derivatives raised questions anew about whether the largest institutions have grown too complex for oversight.

Global Economic Calendar (18-September-2012)

Global Economic Calendar for 18th September 2012
**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (17-September-2012)

Global Economic Calendar for 17th September 2012
**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (14-August-2012)

Global Economic Calendar for 14th August 2012
**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Yen Gains to Six-Week High Versus Euro on Growth Outlook

The yen climbed to the strongest level in almost six weeks against the euro and gained versus all its most-traded counterparts as signs global growth is slowing underpinned demand for the relative safety of the currency.

The dollar rose versus all its major peers except the yen after South Korea unexpectedly lowered interest rates, while the euro slid below $1.22 for the first time since July 2010. The Bank of Japan (8301) refrained from expanding stimulus, adding to haven demand. China releases quarterly gross domestic product data today. Australia’s dollar slid after employers cut jobs.

“The Bank of Japan monetary-policy decision didn’t lead to any significant new expansion in the BOJ balance sheet or something the market would consider more aggressive quantitative easing,” Shahab Jalinoos, a Stamford, Connecticut-based senior currency strategist at UBS AG, said in a telephone interview. “The market was disappointed, and the yen clawed back some recent losses.”

The yen gained 0.9 percent to 96.72 per euro at 1:15 p.m. New York time after appreciating earlier to 96.43, the strongest level since June 1. Japan’s currency advanced 0.6 percent to 79.30 per dollar. The euro weakened 0.4 percent to $1.2196 after sliding to as low as $1.2167.

Japan’s currency rose versus the dollar as the extra yield investors receive for investing in two-year U.S. Treasuries versus comparable Japanese government bonds fell to the lowest in a month, limiting dollar-denominated assets’ appeal. The yield spread was 16 basis points, or 0.16 percentage point.

Euro Weakens as Investors Sell to Buy Higher-Yield Assets

The euro fell to a two-year low versus the dollar and weakened against all of its 16 most-traded peers as traders used the shared currency to fund purchases of higher-yielding assets.

The 17-nation currency dropped to the weakest on record versus Australia’s dollar five days after the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate to an all-time low 0.75 percent. Sweden’s krona reached its strongest against the euro since 2000 as industrial production fell less than forecast, and Mexico’s peso gained versus the dollar on bets Europe’s crisis will ease.

“The euro is now the main funding currency, and everyone wants to be short euro,” said Sebastian Galy, a senior foreign- exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA in New York. “The dollar is no longer the main funding currency.” A short position is a wager a currency will decline in value.

The euro depreciated as much as 0.6 percent to $1.2235, the lowest since July 2010, before trading at $1.2255 at 1:36 p.m. New York time, down 0.5 percent. The common currency declined 0.6 percent to 97.38 yen and touched 97.23 yen, the weakest since June 5. The yen gained 0.1 percent to 79.47 per dollar.

Australia’s dollar climbed 0.5 percent to A$1.2002 per euro and touched A$1.1988. The Aussie was little changed at $1.0209 and slipped 0.1 percent to 81.12 yen.
Investors sell currencies of nations with low borrowing costs to purchase those with higher yields in the carry trade. Japan’s yen and the U.S. dollar are traditional funding currencies because the nation’s central banks are holding interest rates at almost zero. The Reserve of Australia’s cash rate target is 3.5 percent.

FNP Squawk - EUR/USD (20-06-2012)

Hello everybody! What's is going on with everyone? Hope everyone is well =]

EU Union is in the bag. With much anxiety and rumors, what is EU's next course of action? Greeks, Spanish and Italians, to start off, they are the happening and fun Europeans to start with =] A non-mechanical, non-mechanical and non-systemic Europeans :P

Anyway, let's start with what I am seeing.

EUR/USD, has made a great fall ever since their crisis. A lot of talks saying EUR is picking up before and after Greeks elections. Well, after the fall to  1.2287, price indeed bounced but this bounce is going to last. 

Take a look at the daily chart, it is too early to come out with any picture. The only immediate picture that is visible is that price action as of now after the bounce looks like it is going through a "Bear Flag". Calmly creating a channel after the bounce.

Whether EUR/USD is going up or down. depends on how it breaks out of this Bear Flag. I have not been holding a position in Spot FX since 12th June 2012 but I have been doing a lot of scalping using Binary Options. Scalping is more feasible in the current market conditions unless we manage catch something in the market, there and then, spot on. The right place and the right time, go for it. If not, stay with scalping. Discipline is the key to get out of from month of June with a good number.

Yen Gains Versus Peers Before Italy Debt Sale

The yen climbed against all of its major counterparts amid concern the bailout of Spain’s banks will move Italy to the forefront of the debt crisis, spurring demand for the Japanese currency as a haven.

The 17-nation euro remained lower versus the dollar following a three-day slide before Italy auctions debt this week and Greeks vote in a general election on June 17. The euro climbed early yesterday after Spain asked European governments for as much as 100 billion euros ($125 billion) to save its banking system, making it the fourth member of the currency bloc to seek a rescue.

“There is no conviction and there is no belief that things are going to get better” in the euro region, said Kurt Magnus, executive director of currency sales in Sydney at Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage. “This is the reason we’re seeing the U.S. dollar and yen so well bid.”

The yen climbed 0.3 percent to 98.86 per euro as of 10 a.m. in Tokyo from the close in New York yesterday. It gained 0.3 percent to 79.20 against the dollar. The euro traded at $1.2483 after falling 0.3 percent to $1.2482 yesterday.

Italy’s 10-year debt dropped yesterday as the yields climbed 26 basis points, the most since Dec. 8, to 6.03 percent. The nation is scheduled to auction securities on June 14 maturing in 2015, 2019 and 2020.
Italian banks led a decline in European stocks yesterday, with UniCredit SpA (UCG), the country’s largest lender, losing 8.8 percent and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP), the second largest, sliding 5.9 percent. The nation’s debt load is the heaviest in the euro region after Greece’s, as measured by its ratio to annual economic output, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Euro Rises to Two-Week High on Spain Bailout Request

The euro rose against most of its major counterparts after European governments agreed to provide Spain with a bailout loan.

The 17-nation currency climbed to a two-week high after Spain asked for as much as 100 billion euros ($126 billion) to save its banking system, making it the fourth member in the currency bloc to seek a rescue. The dollar and yen fell on decreased demand for refuge assets as Asian shares rallied.

The euro reached $1.2671, the highest since May 23, before trading at $1.2631 as of 1:36 p.m. in Tokyo, 0.9 percent higher than the June 8 close in New York. It jumped 1.1 percent to 100.59 yen. The dollar added 0.2 percent to 79.64 yen.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares advanced 1.8 percent.

Seven months after winning a landslide victory, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was forced to abandon his bid to recapitalize banks without external help. Foreign investors had cut holdings of the nation’s debt amid concern banks’ bad loans may overwhelm public finances, driving borrowing costs to near euro-era records.

Futures traders had increased their bearish bets on the euro to an unprecedented level, according to figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the euro, so-called net shorts, compared with those on a gain was 214,418 on June 5, the most on record going back to 1999.

“The growth outlook for most of the euro area is already bleak,” Guillermo Felices, head of European currency strategy in London at Barclays Plc, and Yuki Sakasai, a New York-based currency strategist, wrote in a research note. “One way to spur growth would be the ECB easing to weaken the euro. Otherwise, without growth, the euro will remain under pressure.”

Euro Strength Seen by Stiglitz Removing Greek Debt

Rather than a euro failure, an orderly Greek exit from the currency has Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz and Nomura Holdings Inc. chief strategist Jens Nordvig predicting a stronger and more stable monetary union.

While Societe Generale SA suggests that the euro might break up because of the cost of Greece’s departure, the nation accounts for just 2.3 percent of the 17-nation trading bloc’s gross domestic product. It also has 356 billion euros ($450 billion), or 4.3 percent of the region’s total debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The area’s trade deficit last year would have been a surplus without its weakest member, according to European Union data.

Foreign-exchange markets display little evidence of the euro being dismembered. The currency trades 53 percent above its record low of 82.30 U.S. cents in October 2000. Bond yields of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany and the Netherlands have fallen to record lows, as investor demand for their debt increases. Removing Greece from the euro would reduce the bloc’s debt-to-GDP ratio to 85.5 percent from 87.3 percent.

Aussie Set for Biggest Drop This Year on RBA Easing Bets

The RBA cut its key rate by 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, to 3.75 percent on May 1. Governor Glenn Stevens cited economic conditions that “have been somewhat weaker than expected” after the RBA decision, which most economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted would be a quarter-percentage-point reduction in borrowing costs.

Interest-rate swaps data compiled by Bloomberg show investors are betting that the RBA will lower its benchmark rate to 3 percent by November, matching 2009’s all-time low. There’s more than a 35 percent chance of the rate declining to 2.75 percent or lower, the data indicate.

The RBA sees average growth of 3 percent in 2012, down from a February estimate of 3.5 percent, according to its quarterly monetary policy statement released today. Consumer prices will rise 2.5 percent in the year to December, from a previous prediction of 3 percent. Underlying inflation is predicted to be at 2.25 percent from a previous 2.75 percent, the central bank said. The estimates are based on the overnight cash rate target remaining at 3.75 percent, it said.

The Australian dollar’s relative strength index versus the greenback was at 41 from 56 on April 27, nearing the 30 level that some traders see as a sign the currency may be about to reverse direction.

Both the Australian and New Zealand currencies fell yesterday after data showed growth slowed in U.S. services industries, curbing demand for risk assets.

FNP SQUAWK (3rd May 2012)

EUR
The EUR continued to decline vs. its main currency counterparts on expectations that Mario Draghi will signal that more stimulus is needed to tackle the eurozone's debt crisis. The EUR/USD pair fell significantly in Wednesday's trading session. The EUR/USD is currently lower this morning by 0.11 percent at $1.3144. The euro is also trading lower vs. the JPY this Thursday morning. The ECB is set to keep rates unchanged at the historical low of 1 percent today. There will be the Spanish auction of three-year and five-year notes in the coming hours. The euro is also lower due to weak economic figures from the region yesterday.

USD
The U.S. dollar is trading higher against most if its main peers ahead of a decision by the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged at 1%. This is due to the weakness of the European economy as of now. The gains for the greenback come on the back of pessimistic data from the eurozone yesterday. The inconsistent data from the leading economies continues to drive traders back to the safe-haven dollar. The GBP/USD pair is down this morning, while the dollar is also up vs. the JPY, AUD and EUR.

GBP
The British pound climbed against the euro in response to a report showing U.K. construction output was better-than-forecast. The GBP also gained in response to yesterday's poor employment and manufacturing data from the eurozone. The GBP/USD pair is trading a touch lower right now. This is after hitting an 8-month higher on Wednesday. The GBP/USD could actually rise in the next few hours, despite the slight dip in the pair this Thursday morning.

Crude Oil
The price of crude oil slid to its lowest level in 2 weeks yesterday, as was predicted in the Daily Analysis of 02052012 that stated "Look to open Put options in crude oil during the current trading day." With rising U.S. stockpiles, U.S. employers adding fewer jobs than anticipated last month and with higher unemployment in Germany, it is no wonder that oil is trading so bearishly. As inventories continue to rise, traders become unsure about the global recovery. The contract plummeted yesterday and crude is also trading lower this morning at $105.12. Positive economic releases today are required in order to drive oil prices higher. Expect another day of bearishness for crude, as pessimism grips the markets.

GOLD
Gold slid yesterday due to negative economic data from the U.S. and Germany. This pushed traders to alternative assets, which in turn made the yellow metal a loser. The declines were predicted in the Daily Analysis of 02052012 that said "Going short on the gold binary option could bring a lot of profit today." Gold's losses continue this morning on a rising dollar and due to global economic uncertainty. The precious metal is currently trading lower by $5.65 at $1,648.35.