Pound Climbs to 4-Year High on U.K.’s Resurgent Economic Growth

The pound advanced to the strongest level in more than four years against the dollar this week as signs the U.K. economic recovery is gathering momentum boosted the allure of British assets.

Sterling climbed for a fourth week versus the greenback as data showed growth accelerated in the first quarter and house prices rose at the fastest pace since 2007. The U.K. currency advanced against the euro as a purchasing managers index for manufacturing rose more than analysts forecast. Government bonds were little changed after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the recovery is starting to “broaden out” before the Monetary Policy Committee’s interest-rate decision on May 8.

The pound rose 0.4 percent this week to $1.6865 at 5:07 p.m. London time yesterday after rising to $1.6920 on May 1, the highest level since August 2009. The U.K. currency strengthened 0.2 percent since April 25 to 82.20 pence per euro.

Sterling has climbed 5.5 percent in the past six months, the best performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, as the strengthening recovery fuels speculation the Bank of England will raise borrowing costs sooner than other central banks. The euro gained 2.1 percent and the dollar weakened 1 percent.

Adding to signs economic resurgence, a Markit Economics index will show growth in services output accelerated in April, according to the median forecast of analysts in a Bloomberg survey before the data is released on May 6. U.K. markets are closed for a public holiday on May 5.

Benchmark 10-year gilt yields were little changed on the week at 2.64 percent. The price of the 2.25 percent bond maturing in September 2023 was at 96.77.

Gilts returned 3.3 percent this year through May 1, according to Bloomberg World Bond Indexes. German securities earned 3.2 percent and U.S. Treasuries gained 2.6 percent.

Fed Resigned to Diminished Growth Expectations

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues have lowered their sights on how fast the economy needs to expand to meet their goal of cutting unemployment.

No longer are they saying growth must accelerate from the 2 percent to 2.5 percent pace it has generally averaged since the recession ended. Instead, they are stressing the importance of preventing the expansion from faltering.

Exhibit number one: the Fed chief herself. Yellen said on April 16 that a key question facing the central bank is what “may be pushing the recovery off track.” Contrast that with her comments on March 4, 2013, of the importance of seeing “a convincing pickup in growth.”

The central bank on April 30 pushed ahead with its plan to gradually wind down its asset-purchase program in spite of news earlier in the day that growth ground to a virtual halt in the first quarter. Saying the economy is rebounding, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to reduce its bond purchases by another $10 billion a month, to $45 billion.

Most FOMC participants forecast gross domestic product growth of 2.8 percent to 3 percent this year and 3 percent to 3.2 percent in 2015, according to projections released March 19.

Yen Declines as Signs of Global Recovery Damp Demand

The yen weakened, dropping most against its higher-yielding peers, as the latest round of international sanctions against Russia failed to damp speculation of a strengthening global economic recovery.

The euro fell for the first time in six days after German inflation accelerated less than economists forecast in April, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to add stimulus. South Korea’s won advanced to the strongest level since 2008 after the nation said its current-account surplus widened. Russia’s ruble climbed after the sanctions over Ukraine failed to penalize the country’s major companies or banks.

The yen fell 0.2 percent to 102.70 per dollar at 8:42 a.m. New York time after dropping 0.3 percent yesterday. It was little changed at 141.92 per euro. Europe’s shared currency declined 0.3 percent to $1.3817 after touching $1.3879, matching the strongest level since April 11.

The yen declined 0.7 percent against the won, 0.6 percent versus the South African rand and 0.4 percent against the Norwegian krone.

German Inflation Misses Estimates as ECB Pressure Mounts

German inflation (GRCP2HYY) accelerated less than economists forecast in April, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to add stimulus in the euro area.

Inflation, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, was 1.1 percent, up from 0.9 percent in March, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists predicted a rate of 1.3 percent, according to the median of 21 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Eurostat, the EU’s statistics office in Luxembourg, will release consumer-price data for the euro area at 11 a.m. tomorrow.

ECB President Mario Draghi has signaled he’ll use unprecedented measures from negative interest rates to quantitative easing if needed to avert the risk of deflation in the 18-nation currency bloc. Inflation in the region was 0.5 percent (ECCPEST) in March, the lowest rate in more than four years and well below the ECB’s goal of just under 2 percent.

The euro dropped after the report and traded at $1.3812 at 2:30 p.m. in Frankfurt, down 0.3 percent today. The yield on the 2-year German bund slid 11 basis points to 0.161 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was at 337.48, up 1 percent.

Consumer prices in the euro area probably rose 0.8 percent this month from a year ago, according to a separate Bloomberg survey before tomorrow’s data. Economic confidence in the bloc unexpectedly fell, while remaining near the highest level since 2011, a European Commission report showed today.

The ECB’s 24-member Governing Council gathers in Brussels next week and will announce its interest-rate decision on May 8. The Frankfurt-based central bank has kept its benchmark rate at a record low of 0.25 percent since November and the deposit rate has been at zero since July 2012.

Brazil Real Tumbles as Central Bank Avoids Holding Rollover Sale

Brazil’s real fell the most this year after the central bank refrained from calling an auction to roll over foreign-exchange swaps, adding to speculation that it is easing support for the currency.

The real declined 1.3 percent to 2.2436 per U.S. dollar at the close of trade in Sao Paulo, the worst performance among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The drop was the biggest since Dec. 11, pushing the currency down 0.3 percent for the week.

The central bank avoided scheduling an auction for today to extend maturities on swaps contracts due next month, marking the first time since April 3 that it didn’t call such a sale. The sale of swaps under a program to support the real and limit import price increases has helped it rally 5.2 percent this year, the most among 24 emerging-market currencies.

The central bank, which usually sends statements calling rollover auctions the night before at 6:30 p.m. Sao Paulo time, declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg News. It rolled over about $6.5 billion of the $8.7 billion in currency swaps due May 2. In March, the bank extended the maturity on about $7.5 billion of $10.6 billion of swap contracts due April 1. Brazil did sell $198.2 million of foreign-exchange swaps today.

In the interest-rate futures market, swap rates on contracts maturing in January 2015 climbed one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 11 percent.

Euro Advances on Industry Growth; Aussie Falls

The euro rose the most in two weeks versus the dollar as manufacturing and services in the currency bloc expanded more than economists forecast, damping bets the European Central Bank will further ease monetary policy.

Australia’s dollar slumped the most in more than a month against the greenback after a government report showed inflation was less than analysts forecast. New Zealand’s currency fell before the central bank is forecast to raise interest rates. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fluctuated as the U.S. is scheduled to report on new-home sales and manufacturing. A measure of market volatility slid toward a seven-year low.

The euro advanced 0.2 percent to $1.3836 at 8:54 a.m. New York time, after touching $1.3855, the highest since April 17. The shared currency fell 0.1 percent to 141.58 yen, snapping a six-day gain. Japan’s currency rose 0.3 percent to 102.33.

JPMorgan Chase & Co’s Group of 7 Volatility Index dropped to 6.56 percent, a second daily decline, approaching the record low of 5.73 percent reached in June 2007. It is down from a record high 27 percent in October 2008, shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Dollar Gains 7th Day as Economic Data Signal Growth

The Australian dollar rose the most in two weeks against the U.S. currency before a government report tomorrow that economists said will show inflation accelerated, boosting speculation interest rates will increase.

The Aussie gained versus all of its 16 major counterparts. The yen strengthened for the first time in eight days against the dollar as China’s largest manager of bad debt said the country’s bad-loan ratio increased “significantly,” spurring demand for safe-haven assets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index snapped a seven-day gain before a report forecast to show U.S. home sales fell in March.

The Australian dollar gained 0.4 percent to 93.63 U.S. cents at 9:03 a.m. London time, the biggest advance since April 8. The yen strengthened 0.1 percent to 102.49 per dollar and rose 0.1 percent to 141.47 per euro. The euro was little changed at $1.3803.

The trimmed mean gauge of Australian consumer prices was 2.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, up from an inflation rate of 2.6 percent in the previous three months, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey before the Bureau of Statistics issues the data.

The RBA has said inflation is expected to stay consistent with its target over the next two years. The central bank reiterated in minutes published last week of its April 1 meeting that the most prudent course is likely to be a period of interest rates on hold. It targets average annual inflation of 2 percent to 3 percent.

Yen Falls Versus Major Peers After Japan’s Trade Deficit Widens

The yen fell versus its 16 major peers after a report showed Japan’s trade deficit widened more than forecast last month.

The dollar held its biggest weekly advances in a month versus the yen and the euro ahead of leading U.S. economic indicators that may back speculation the Federal Reserve will remove stimulus this year. New Zealand’s dollar remained lower before the Reserve Bank sets policy on April 24. Currency volatility sank to an almost seven-year low on April 17, the day before financial markets from Sydney to New York were closed to observe Good Friday.

The yen fell 0.2 percent to 102.63 per dollar as of 12:04 p.m. in Tokyo from April 18, when it completed a 0.8 percent weekly slide, the biggest since the five days to March 21. Japan’s currency dropped 0.2 percent to 141.74 per euro. The dollar traded at $1.3811 per euro from $1.3813, following a 0.5 percent weekly gain.

Financial markets in the U.K., Germany, Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand are among those closed for a holiday today. The U.S. markets reopen after being shut on April 18.

Canadian Dollar Falls as Central Bank Signals Slow Export Growth

The Canadian dollar touched its lowest point in over a week after the Bank of Canada maintained a neutral bias on interest rates and said a forecast pickup in business investment has been slow to materialize.

The currency fell against most of its major peers as the central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 1 percent for the 29th straight policy meeting, as forecast by all 18 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The economy’s recovery “hinges critically” on a shift in demand from indebted consumers to exports and business investment, which will be aided by a weaker Canadian dollar and rising U.S. orders, the bank said in a statement today.

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, depreciated as much as 0.4 percent to C$1.1024 per U.S. dollar, the weakest since April 4, before trading at C$1.1007 at 11:19 a.m. in Toronto, down 0.3 percent. One loonie buys 90.85 U.S. cents.

The Canadian dollar has been the worst-performing of the greenback’s 16 major peers this year as shifts in the Bank of Canada’s outlook prompted bets it would signal a need for easier monetary policy to spur inflation and boost exports.

Forex Spot (Trade Done) 14 APR 2014

Forex Spot - Trade Done 14 APR 2014

Long position was opened with GBP/JPY on 14 Apr 2014 at 10:15am (SG Time).

Entry price at 169.82, Stop Loss at 169.40 and Target Profit at 170.80.

Trade closed by Target Profit trigger on 16 APR 2014 at 8:49am (SG Time). 97pips profit.

Binary Options (Trades Done) 15 Apr 2014

Binary Options - 15 Apr 2014

Tough night, 6 done deals.

3 wins, 2 lose, 1 break-even

(3 x 70%) + (1 x 0%) - (2 x 100%) = 210% + 0% - 200% = 10% Profit (Based on per trade size)

Stamina depleting, I am out.

Binary Options (Trades Done) 14 APR 20114

Binary Options - 14 Apr 2014

5 Done Deals: 3 Wins, 1 Break-even, 1 Lose

(3 x 70%) + (1 x 0%) - (1 x 100%) = 210% + 0% - 100% = 110% Profit (Based on per trade size).

I am out for tonight.

Dollar Snaps Five-Day Losing Stretch Amid Drop in Risk Appetite

The dollar ended five days of losses against a basket of its major counterparts as investor risk appetite shrank and global stocks dropped.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose from almost a five-month low as U.S. equities declined. The Swiss franc gained versus most major peers, while Brazil’s real pared a fourth weekly advance. Futures traders turned bullish on the Australian dollar for the first time in 11 months.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, rose as much as 0.3 percent to 1,007.65 before trading at 1,006.46 at 5 p.m. in New York, up 0.1 percent. It sank yesterday to 1,004.01, the lowest since Oct. 30. The gauge fell 1 percent this week.

The dollar was little changed at $1.3885 per euro, dropping 1.3 percent this week, the most since the five days ended Sept. 20. The U.S. currency gained 0.1 percent to 101.62 yen, paring a weekly decline to 1.6 percent. The yen depreciated 0.1 percent to 141.13 per euro.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index of U.S. stocks fell 1 percent, and the MSCI World Index dropped 1.1 percent. Equities declined amid concern that company earnings are failing to justify rising share prices.

Yen Rises to Three-Week High on China Exports

The yen gained to the strongest in three weeks against the dollar as an unexpected decline in Chinese exports revived demand for safer assets after the Federal Reserve damped bets of raising interest rates.

The dollar rose from a five-month low against a basket of peers as the smallest number of Americans since before the last recession filed applications for unemployment benefits last week. Sweden’s krona slumped after a government report showed consumer prices dropped twice as much as economists predicted. The Australian dollar increased on jobs gains.

The yen advanced 0.4 percent to 101.57 per dollar as of 10:55 a.m. in New York after appreciating to 101.42, the strongest level since March 19. Japan’s currency gained 0.2 percent to 140.99 per euro. The dollar fell 0.2 percent to $1.3880 after sliding to $1.3883, the weakest since March 19.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major counterparts, fell 0.1 percent to 1,004.94. It earlier slid to 1,004.08, the lowest level since Oct. 30.

Dollar Falls to Lowest in 5 Months as Emerging Currencies Gain

The dollar dropped to the lowest level in more than five months against a basket of peers as a decline in currency volatility spurred investors to seek out higher-yielding assets.

The U.S. currency fell for a second day against the euro after a U.S. job report last week showed employers added fewer workers than economists forecast, damping speculation the recovery is gaining momentum. Australia’s dollar strengthened along with the currencies of New Zealand and South Africa. The yen rose as the Bank of Japan refrained from adding extra stimulus at a policy meeting. A Bloomberg index of emerging-market currencies reached an almost four-month high.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 of its major counterparts, declined 0.5 percent to 1,009.19 at 10:58 a.m. in New York after falling to 1,008.58, the lowest level since Oct. 31.

The dollar dropped 0.3 percent to $1.3789 per euro after sliding 0.3 percent yesterday. The greenback depreciated 0.9 percent to 102.16 yen after sliding to 102.07, the weakest since March 28. Japan’s currency rose 0.6 percent to 140.86 per euro

Loonies climbed the strongest in six weeks on employment growth

Canada’s dollar gained to the strongest level in more than six weeks after the economy added more jobs than forecast in March, rebounding from a decline the previous month, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell.

The currency, called the loonie, rose versus 10 of its 16 major peers as employment in the U.S., Canada’s biggest trade partner, grew less than projected. The loonie has been the biggest loser this year among major currencies on bets slowing growth would lead the Bank of Canada to wait longer than the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The bank meets April 16. Governor Stephen Poloz said March 18 a rate cut might be possible if the economy worsens.

The loonie, nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, gained 0.5 percent to C$1.0981 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto. It was the strongest closing level since Feb. 18. The currency gained for a second week, appreciating 0.7 percent. One loonie buys 91.07 U.S. cents.

Canada’s government bonds rose, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year security down the most in three weeks. It fell as much as six basis points, the biggest intraday drop since March 13, to 2.49 percent. The price of the 2.5 percent debt due in June 2024 increased 49 cents to C$100.10.

The Canadian dollar has declined 3.3 percent this year against its U.S. counterpart, the worst performance among 16 major peers. The loonie has fallen 4 percent this year in a basket of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, also the biggest loss. The U.S. dollar declined 0.4 percent, and the euro lost 0.7 percent.

Binary Options (Trades Done) 31 Mar 2014

Binary Options - 31 Mar 2014

Not really in the best mojo tonight.

5 done deals: 3 wins, 2 lose

(3 x 76%) - (2 x 100%) = 228% - 200% = 28% profit (Based on per trade size)

Canada Dollar Bearish Bets Fall Most Ever on China Easing Signs

Futures traders reduced bets that the Canadian dollar will decline against its U.S. counterpart by the most on record amid speculation China will add monetary stimulus, boosting demand for raw materials and energy.

Speculators cut wagers on Canada’s dollar weakening against the greenback, known as net shorts, by 36,590 positions as of March 25 from a week earlier, the most in records going back to 1993, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The shift reduced short positions to 33,215 contracts, from 69,805 on March 21.

The Canadian dollar, nicknamed the loonie for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, declined 0.3 percent to C$1.1061 in Toronto trading after gaining earlier to C$1.1001, the strongest level since March 7. It climbed 1.5 percent for the week, the most since July, snapping three weeks of losses.

The Aussie dollar gained 1.8 percent this week, the most since the five days ended Feb. 7, to 92.47 U.S. cents. It touched 92.95 cents today, the highest since Nov. 21.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said he’s confident of keeping his nation’s growth in a “reasonable range.” The country’s manufacturing industry weakened for a fifth straight month, according to a preliminary measure for March released March 24.

Fed of 1970s Shows Capacity May Mislead

The decision of central banks to focus more on economic slack as a barometer of when inflation will become a problem could backfire, if history is any guide.

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank have started using the level of spare capacity in their economies as a way to foretell when they will start reversing easy monetary policies. The more capacity, the bigger the output gap between actual and potential economic growth and the longer officials can keep interest rates low because price pressures will be sluggish.

“While this sounds plausible, past experience suggests that central banks tend to hike rates too slowly, with corresponding risks for price inflation,” Christoph Balz and Bernd Weidensteiner, economists at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said in a March 21 report.

The problem is that output gaps are hard to estimate and better done in hindsight. To demonstrate that, the Commerzbank economists looked at what the Fed would have estimated for the output gap in the early 1970s, given the data they had available from the prior three decades.

The initial impression was of an output gap of minus 1 percent for 1974, which would have encouraged the U.S. central bank to be “moderately expansionary,” said Balz and Weidensteiner.

In reality, the economy was later shown to have been slightly over-stretched in 1974. Repeating the exercise for 1983, the output gap the Fed would have calculated at the time was minus 1 percent, versus the minus 4 percent it proved to be.

“In other words, a more restrictive policy would have been appropriate in 1974, but in 1983 a more expansionary policy was required,” said Commerzbank. “This demonstrates the uncertainty prevailing when monetary policy conclusions are drawn from the current data set.”

With the Fed’s new lines of communication aimed at damping expectations of rate hikes, the risk is the Fed “will again probably raise rates too late and too cautiously,” said the economists. This time the “greater danger” may be that loose monetary policy fans inflation in asset prices.

USD/JPY (29 MARCH 2014)

USD/JPY - Under daily chart, from late December 2013 till now, the movement of price is seem to be on a closing wedge. Squeezing in with lower highs and higher lows.

Trading with caution, factoring in the closing wedge resistance and support. If a break out does occur, do not be trigger happy. Proceed with extreme caution.

If it does break above the closing wedge, our first resistance to look at will be around 103.75, the high of 7th March 2014.

Binary Options - Trades Done (28 MAR 2014)

Binary Options (28 MAR 2014)

3 done deals: 2 wins, 1 break-even.

(2 x 76%) + (1 x 0%) = 152% profit (Based on per trade size)

Binary Options (TRADES DONE) 24 MAR 2014

Binary Options - 24 Mar 2014

Took a look here and there, jumping from USD/JPY, EUR/USD & GBP/JPY.

8 done deals: 6 Win & 2 Lose

Computation: (1 x 67%) + (5 x 76%) - (2 x 100%) = 247% Profit (Based on per trade size)

Losing stamina, I am out for today.

Gold Decline

Gold futures in New York declined 3.1 percent last week to $1,336 an ounce, while the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials fell 0.5 percent. The MSCI All-Country World index of equities rose 0.7 percent, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, rose 0.6 percent. The Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index fell 0.5 percent.

The net-bullish position in gold rose 13 percent to 138,429 futures and options in the week ended March 18, the most since November 2012, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Short holdings fell for a fifth week, the longest streak in three years.

Investor holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion posted the first weekly decline in four last week. On March 19, the Fed cut its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion. Yellen said the asset buying could end this fall and benchmark interest rates could rise about six months later. Gold jumped 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system and held borrowing costs near zero percent to boost the economy.

European Stocks Decline

European stocks retreated, after the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s biggest weekly advance in more than a month, as world leaders gather in The Hague to discuss tension over Ukraine and a manufacturing gauge for China and Germany slipped. U.S. index futures and Asian shares rose.

Centrica Plc declined 1.2 percent after a report said U.K.’s biggest utilities may be split. Royal KPN (KPN) NV lost 2.4 percent after Citigroup Inc. downgraded the stock. CEZ AS, the biggest Czech utility, climbed 3.4 percent after the nation’s finance minister said the government is seeking a 100 percent dividend payout.

The Stoxx 600 fell 0.7 percent to 325.48 at 9:27 a.m. in London. The benchmark index advanced 1.8 percent last week as Russian President Vladimir Putin said he won’t seek territory beyond Crimea. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.2 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.1 percent.

Leaders of the U.S., the European Union, China, Japan and others meet today as concern grows that Russia is massing soldiers on Ukraine’s border. U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague wrote in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph that Russia’s troop buildup means the crisis may worsen, calling the situation the most serious risk to European security in the 21st century.

Asian Currencies reaction on Fed Outlook.

Asian currencies had their steepest weekly loss in nine months after the Federal Reserve increased its 2015 interest-rate forecast and China doubled the yuan’s trading band.

The Fed, while indicating this week that the target rate will stay at zero to 0.25 percent in 2014, said it may reach 1 percent by the end of 2015, higher than 0.75 percent predicted previously. The yuan completed a record five-day drop as China’s central bank cut the daily reference rate to the lowest since November, almost a week after it increased the maximum limit the currency can diverge from the fixing to 2 percent.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-active currencies, slid 0.7 percent from March 14 to 114.51 in Singapore, the biggest decline since June. The yuan slumped 1.2 percent to 6.2250 per dollar in Shanghai and reached 6.2370 yesterday, the lowest level since February last year, China Foreign Exchange Trade System prices showed.
‘Surprised Markets’

The U.S. central bank trimmed its bond-buying program, which has fueled fund flows to emerging markets, this week by a further $10 billion to $55 billion. It started cutting the stimulus at the beginning of the year from $85 billion. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said March 19 that rates could start rising “around six months” following an end to the purchases later this year.

The Philippine peso sank 1.5 percent to 45.31 per dollar this week, Malaysia’s ringgit fell 0.9 percent to 3.3085 and Taiwan’s dollar slid 0.9 percent to NT$30.652. Indonesia’s rupiah lost 0.6 percent to 11,423, South Korea’s won weakened 0.7 percent to 1,080.4 and Thailand’s baht dropped 0.3 percent to 32.381. India’s rupee climbed 0.4 percent to 60.9250.

China’s currency dropped amid signs growth in Asia’s largest economy is cooling after reports showed an unexpected slump in exports and slowing factory output. The risk of further defaults is also weighing on sentiment. The People’s Bank of China cut the daily fixing by a total of 0.21 percent this week to 6.1475 per dollar.

Bank Negara Malaysia trimmed the lower end of its estimate for 2014 economic growth this week, saying inflation will hurt household spending amid an uneven global recovery. Gross domestic product may increase 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent in 2014, after climbing 4.7 percent last year, according to the central bank’s annual report issued March 19. That’s wider than the Finance Ministry’s previous range of 5 percent to 5.5 percent. Inflation may come in between 3 percent to 4 percent, compared with 2.1 percent in 2013, it said.

Binary Options (Trades Done) 17 Mar 2014

Binary Options - 17 Mar 2014

Started hunting at 9pm (SG Time). 6 done deals.

6 done deals: 4 win, 2 Lose

(4 x 76%) - (2 x 100%) = 104% return (Based on per trade size)

Closing shop for today. Tomorrow will be another. Hidden Secret, over and out....

Binary Options (Trades Done) 13 Mar 2013

Tiring day, still recovering from flu. Took a look at the charts after dinner. After reviewing it, knowing I do not want to drag it to a long night, conservative plan for tonight, no aggressive entry. Decision to go ahead with USD/JPY.

(Binary Options) 2 Done deals: 2 wins.

2 x 76% = 152% profit.

I am out.

Binary Options (Trades Done) 12 Mar 2014

Feeling a little better, recovering from the flu but still weak.

Made 3 done deals on Binary Options with USD/JPY after a quick review.

3 done deals: 2 wins (1 x usual trade size, 1 x slightly higher than twice usual trade size), 1 lose.

Rough computation: 166% profit (Based on usual trade size)

Going to get some rest. I am out.

Binary Options (TRADES DONE) 11 Mar 2014

Still feeling under the weather =(  6 done deals with first one error trade, didn't double check on the pair before doing the deal >_< Daaaammit...

6 done deals: 3 wins (2 x Slightly more than usual trade size & 1 x usual trade size), 3 lose (Usual trade size).

Rough computation: 156% profit. (Based on per usual trade size)

Sorry no charts attached tonight. Just want to pop my pills and KO. I am out.

So far for March 2014, month to date has been 77.79% return.

Binary Options - 10 Mar 2014

Sickly day for me. Took a look here and there. More focused on USD/JPY.

4 Done deals on Binary Options: 3 wins (2 usual trade size, 1 slightly double trade size) and 1 lose.

Rough computation: 210% profit (Based on usual trade size)

I am out. Going to take my medications again and KO.

Dollar Rise against Yen.

The dollar rose to a six-week high against the yen as U.S. employment gains exceeded forecasts, boosting speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue to pare monetary stimulus that’s seen as debasing the currency.

The U.S. currency rallied as the Labor Department reported employers added 175,000 jobs in February, compared with the median estimate of 149,000 in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Canada’s dollar declined versus the majority of its most-traded counterparts after employers unexpectedly eliminated jobs last month. The euro reached the highest level in more than two years versus the dollar as bets on further European Central Bank stimulus waned, boosting demand for the 18-nation currency.

The dollar gained 0.3 percent to 103.33 yen at 1:26 p.m. in New York, reaching the strongest level since Jan. 23. The euro added 0.1 percent to $1.3875 after touching $1.3915, the highest level since Oct. 31, 2011. The shared currency gained 0.4 percent to 143.36 yen.

Binary Options (TRADE DONE) 07 Mar 2914 - Update

After doing my stuffs and this week's evaluation. Spotted this one irresistible entry. Went in for one more =]

Updated done deals for tonight, 4 done deals: 4 wins

4 x 76% = 304% Profit (Based on per trade size)

I am out for real now =] 

Binary Options (TRADES DONE) 07 MAR 2014

Started hunting at 11:00pm (SG Time). After quick review, decision was to go with USD/JPY.

3 done deal: 3 Wins

3 x 76% = 228% Profit (Based on per trade size)

Seems to have more opportunities but I am abiding to my money management rules =]

AUD/USD TRADE (06 MAR 2014)

Aside from my Binary Options, this is my FX Spot done deal.

Open the position with AUD/USD at 06 Mar, 1:00am (SG Time) at price of 0.89829. Placed my initial TP at 0.9045, immediate resistance. 1min later, after quick review, decision made to change TP to 0.9075, sensitive resistance price line. Stop loss was placed at previous low of 0.8885, near the low of 03 Mar. At 06 Mar, 9:41pm, stop loss is moved to entry at 0.8930.

Trade closed at 0.9025 TP, 06 Mar, 11:02 pm (SG Time).

For this FX Spot done deal, 92.2pips profit.

Singapore's 2012 GDP growth revised up to 1.3%

Singapore's 2012 GDP growth revised up to 1.3%

The Singapore economy grew 1.5% yoy in the 4th qtr of 2012, more than the 1.1% official advance estimates issued in Jan showed. As a result, Singapore's GDP grew a larger 1.3% in 2012, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said on Fri, revising up its advance estimate of 1.2% growth.

On a q/q, seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy grew 3.3% in Q4 2012. This too was larger than the 1.8% advance estimate of growth, and reversed a 4.6% contraction in the 3rd qtr.

The outlook for Singapore's economy remains "cautiously positive", as it reiterated its 2013 growth forecast of 1 to 3%. Although global macroeconomic conditions have stabilised in recent mths as financial mkt conditions improved, global economic growth is likely to remain subdued.

The US housing markt has shown improvement but the strength of its economic recovery will be restrained by fiscal tightening. In the Euro zone, economic growth will likely stay stagnant, weighed down by ongoing fiscal tightening, private sector de-leveraging, as well as high unemployment rates.

Euro Touches Six-Week Low as ECB Bank Repayments Miss Forecast

The euro touched the lowest level against the dollar in six weeks after the European Central Bank said institutions will repay less of Long-Term Refinancing Operation borrowing next week than economists forecast. 

The 17-nation currency trimmed gains versus the yen as the European Commission forecast the region’s economy will shrink for a second year in 2013. The Australian dollar rose the most in seven weeks after central bank Governor Glenn Stevens said the bar for intervention was high. Japan’s currency weakened amid a White House meeting between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Barack Obama, who made no mention of the yen during remarks after the discussion. 

“The market is trading on confidence and sentiment, and the LTRO news shows that tail risk has shrunk less than we thought,” Greg Anderson, New York-based head of Group of 10 currency strategy at Citigroup Inc., said in a telephone interview.

“What we’ve seen this week is the last of the euro longs getting squeezed out.” A long position is a bet that an asset will rise. 

The euro fell was little changed at $1.3194 at 5 p.m. in New York after touching $1.3145, the lowest level since Jan. 10. The shared currency declined 1.2 percent this week. It rose 0.3 percent 123.22 yen today after strengthening as much as 0.8 percent. The yen weakened 0.3 percent to 93.42 per dollar. 

The euro may depreciate to the 2013 low of $1.2998 it reached on Jan. 4 if it declines past a support level at $1.3151, Cilline Bain, a London-based technical analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote today in a client note. Support is an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered.

EU Says Euro Zone to Shrink in 2013 as Unemployment Rises

The euro-area economy will shrink for a second year in 2013, driving unemployment higher as governments, consumers and companies curb spending, the European Commission said.

 The 17-nation euro zone’s gross domestic product will fall 0.3 percent this year, compared with a November prediction of 0.1 percent growth, the Brussels-based commission forecast today. Unemployment will climb to 12.2 percent, up from the previous estimate of 11.8 percent and 11.4 percent last year, it said. 

Europe’s labor market “is a serious concern,” Marco Buti, head of the commission’s economics department, said in a statement. “This has grave social consequences and will, if unemployment becomes structurally entrenched, also weigh on growth perspectives going forward.” 

The euro area is hamstrung by fragile public finances, vulnerable banks and a weak economy feeding, Buti said.

 The economic weakness contrasts with financial-market improvements, as nations, banks and households improve their balance sheets and hold off on new demand.

The commission cut its forecast for the German economy, Europe’s largest, to 0.5 percent growth this year, from 0.8 forecast in November, due to a drop in euro-area demand that damps export and investment.

The outlook for next year was more upbeat, with 2014 forecasts of 1.4 percent growth and 12.1 percent unemployment in the euro area. Across the 27-nation European Union, the commission is projecting 0.1 percent growth for 2013 and 1.6 percent growth in 2014, after a 0.3 percent contraction last year. 

The Stoxx 600 Index (SXXP) has climbed about 3 percent this year after a 14 percent advance last year. The euro has gained 6 percent against the dollar the past six months.

20-Feb-2013 (Binary Trades)

It is only Wednesday and I am already feeling burnt out =( This is not a good sign.

Anyway, tonight, 20-Feb-2013, Singapore's time zone.

With the German 10-y Bond Auction at around 6:38pm and a series of american's data at 9:30pm, I am still very cautious on opening any positions. Total this evening, I have only 3 done deals,, winning deals that is with binary dealing desk. The movement between point of entry and contract expiry time was very slim which is only lucrative with binary desk. 

All three trades entered with my algo entry, which under normal circumstances, I would not have opened at all, slightly on the risky side.

1 done deal with EUR/USD at 6:44pm and 2 done deals with USD/CAD at 9:54pm and 10:14pm.

EUD/USD has a nice movements on the down side before turning around a little but we are sticking to our trade plan in the trading window. That is why after cooking and having my dinner, I went on to look at USD/CAD which I aggressively entered using my algo entry.

Market jumped and still moving as I am typing this but I am done for tonight boys. 3 winning deals, enough for me tonight with 543% (81% each). Trade safely muchachos. Those who are still holding USD/CAD over at the spot dealing desk, keep holding to it, weekly data looks fine, no reason to bail out just yet.

15-Feb-2013 (Binary Trades)

It has been a crazy and tiring week. Forecasting data for my workplace has been quite a challenge at the moment due festive period of CNY. As mentioned before, due to the festivity, we have decided to put our FX Spot off the books during the festive period of CNY but we are still rolling with Binary desk.

Not much done this week with extra caution being put into place and we are glad we did. Smaller gains but more percentage wins is worth the effort and straining from jumping into aggressive deals.

Today, or rather tonight with respect to Singapore time, 15-Feb-2013. We are focused more into the night with Canadians releasing their month/month Manufacturing Sales data and US releasing their Empire State Manufacturing Index data and few others. During this window of trading, as per our trade plan, we look at USD/CAD.

Upon Canadians release, it jumped. On my end, I had waited for entry. It turned out well and got out at Binary expiry. Then after, I went for a second entry and it turned out positive. Both using our algo entry. For those that just came back from vacation, we are sticking to Stochs (5,3,3) and the rest remains the same.

Only two deals for me tonight with 181% each. I am out boys, brain capacity is maxed out. Those that are still rolling, be careful, trade safely. It is Friday and there might be interesting movements or dull. Anything can happen, so do not let your guard down.

11-Feb-2013 (Binary Trades)

Fairly quiet day with those celebrating Lunar New Year. It is a public holiday here in Singapore and most in Asia, the banks in Japan observing National Foundation Day and China observing Lunar New Year, they close for celebration.

The rest of the world is still doing business as usual.

To the boys rolling the desk today with me, we are mostly looking at AUD/USD. It has been the downside bias since morning but I personally did not rush to go in. Time is what I have today.

Total done with 162% ROI today with binary desk. Two trades done based on our algo entry. That's all from my end. To the rest, that is still rolling. Be extra careful of spikes. We are staying out on spots during this festive period.

Obama to Propose Spending to Boost Jobs in State of Union Speech

President Barack Obama will use his State of the Union address this week to focus on job creation and the struggles of American families, marking a renewed emphasis on the economic issues that defined his first term. 

The president will offer proposals for spending on infrastructure, clean energy and education, according to a senior official briefed on the speech. He will also stress the agenda laid out in his inauguration address, pushing Congress for action on immigration, gun control and climate change. 

Obama previewed his Feb. 12 speech in remarks before House Democrats meeting in Virginia last week, where he advocated for “an economy that works for everybody.” 

“I’m going to be talking about making sure that we’re focused on job creation here in the United States of America,” he said. 

Democrats and Republicans are targeting their post-election messages on the economy as the latest unemployment report shows the nation continues to only slowly create jobs. Payrolls rose 157,000 in January after accelerating more than previously estimated at the end of 2012, the Labor Department said on Feb. 1. The jobless rate increased to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent. 

The economy unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter at a 0.1 percent annual rate, restrained by a plunge in defense spending and dwindling inventory growth. 

Obama is expected to use his address to push for immigration legislation that includes a pathway to citizenship for the country’s estimated 11 million undocumented workers and on gun-control proposals, including a ban on assault weapons and universal background checks for gun buyers.

Happy New Year of the Snake

FNP wishes all readers, traders, friends, colleagues, partners and everyone that is celebrating the lunar new year, a Happy, Prosperous, Healthy and Blessed year of the snake.

=^_^=

Nikkei 225 (06-Feb-2013)

How will the Nikkei 225 perform today? It has been undecided yesterday with price action close below opening.

Eaton CEO Says China GDP Report Overstates Growth Rate

Eaton Corp. (ETN) Chief Executive Officer Sandy Cutler said China’s official 7.8 percent economic growth for 2012 may have overstated expansion by twice the real rate, and is only now headed for a “legitimate” 8 percent gain.

Based on indicators such as consumer consumption and electric power usage, China’s gross domestic product probably grew 3 percent to 4 percent last year, Cutler said today in a telephone interview. The economy is accelerating now that China is past the distractions from its leadership change, he said.

“That’s what we and so many multinational companies have been feeling there in China for the last year and a half, the economy really hasn’t been growing at 7 or 8 percent,” Cutler said. “If we could get back to an 8 percent growth rate in China for 2013, that would be a pretty darn good year.”

Cutler’s assessment, delivered after Eaton’s quarterly earnings report, suggested that China masked the extent of the slowdown preceding Xi Jinping’s elevation to general secretary of the ruling Communist Party in November. The government reported that GDP growth decelerated from 9.3 percent in 2011 and 10.4 percent in 2010.

China tended to “tamp down” reported GDP expansion as it ran at 12 percent or more in 2006 and 2007, Cutler said. The government boosted the official tally after slowing growth to quell inflation, said Cutler, 61, who presides over a manufacturer that got more than half its 2012 revenue of $16.3 billion from outside the U.S.

Euro Extends Gains Amid Bets ECB Won’t Weaken Currency

The euro gained against the dollar on speculation that European Central Bank policy makers aren’t concerned a stronger currency will slow the economic recovery.

The 17-nation common currency advanced versus the majority of its 16 most-traded peers as the ECB’s balance sheet shrank to the smallest in almost a year on early loan repayments by euro- area banks even as French President Francois Hollande warned that a rising currency may deepen the recession. The yen touched the weakest in almost three years against the dollar as the Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he will step down on March 19, three weeks early. The ECB meets on Feb. 7.

“I think that the euro could continue to climb higher,” Douglas Borthwick, a managing director and head of foreign exchange at Chapdelaine FX in New York, said in a telephone interview. “The Japanese said ‘we are weakening our currency,’ the British are staring down the barrel of a downgrade and the U.S. is weakening the dollar through quantitative easing. The euro should be trading at the $1.40 level in the next few months.”

The euro strengthened 0.5 percent to $1.3583 at 5 p.m. in New York, lower than its five-year average of $1.3715. The yen slid 1.4 percent to 93.63 per dollar after touching 93.66, weakest since May 2010. The euro rose 1.9 percent to 127.18 yen after reaching 127.22, the highest since April 2010.

Dell Taken Private as PC Slump Hastens $24 Billion Buyout

Dell Inc. (DELL) is going private in a $24.4 billion leveraged buyout that signals the waning of the personal-computer industry it once dominated.

In the largest LBO since the financial crisis, Chief Executive Officer Michael Dell and Silver Lake Management LLC are paying $13.65 a share, the companies said today in a statement. That’s 25 percent more than the closing price of $10.88 on Jan. 11, the last trading day before Bloomberg News reported the discussions.

Michael Dell is taking back majority control of the company he started in a University of Texas dormitory almost three decades ago after struggling to equip the PC maker for a new generation of competitors in mobile and cloud computing. He’s wagering that he can more effectively transform Dell into a provider of a broad range of products for corporations outside the scrutiny of public investors, even while encumbering it with about $17 billion in additional debt.

Shirakawa Accelerates BOJ Exit as Abe Presses for Stimulus

Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will step down on March 19, almost three weeks before his term was due, accelerating a leadership transition that may aid Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s campaign for aggressive easing. 

Shirakawa, 63, will exit the same time as two deputy governors, he told reporters in Tokyo. He was scheduled to leave on April 8. Japan’s currency slid after the comments, adding to losses against the dollar since Abe’s administration took office in December on a platform of greater monetary stimulus and a reversal of yen strength that has hurt export competitiveness. 

The outgoing chief assured the stability of Japan’s financial system with liquidity injections during the global credit crisis, and again in the wake of the record March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. At the same time, his failure to end the nation’s trenchant deflation stoked criticism from lawmakers, and administration officials have pledged a replacement who shares Abe’s determination to end price declines. 

“The governor’s resignation will likely push forward the timing of bold monetary easing action,” said Akito Fukunaga, chief rates strategist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo, a unit of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “Shirakawa has probably judged that it’s better for the BOJ to start with a new top three who have similar views.”

Euro Remains Lower Versus Yen on Italy, Spain Uncertainty

The euro fell against the yen, following yesterday’s drop which was the biggest since June, amid corruption allegations against Spanish Premier Mariano Rajoy and uncertainty ahead of Italian elections this month.

The 17-nation currency halted this year’s climb against the dollar before European Central Bank policy makers meet on Feb. 7. The yen rose against most major peers as investors bought haven assets after Asian equities slid. Australia’s dollar fell after the central bank kept interest rates unchanged while saying the inflation outlook allows scope further easing.

Asian Stocks Fall From 18-Month High on Europe as Aussie Weakens

Asian stocks fell from an 18-month high on renewed concern about Europe’s debt crisis and as forecasts from HTC Corp. to Hitachi Ltd. (6501) disappointed investors. Metals declined and Australia’s dollar weakened.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) lost 0.8 percent at 12:53 p.m. in Tokyo, as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slumped 1.6 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed after a 1.2 percent slump yesterday. Palladium slipped 0.8 percent and zinc retreated 1 percent. The Australian dollar fell 0.4 percent versus the greenback after the central bank left interest rates unchanged. The euro weakened against the dollar after falling the most in a month yesterday.

Too-Big-to-Fail Too Hard to Fix Amid Calls to Curb Banks

Top U.S. bank regulators and lawmakers are pushing for action to limit the risk that the government again winds up financing the rescue of one or more of the nation’s biggest financial institutions.

Officials leading the debate, including Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Senator Sherrod Brown, share the view that the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act failed to curb the growth of large banks after promising in its preamble to “end too big to fail.”

Strategies under consideration range from legislation that would cap the size of big banks or make them raise more capital to regulatory actions to discourage mergers or require that financial firms hold specified levels of long-term debt to convert into equity in a failure.

The push for revisiting the law or writing new rules “is absolutely driven by a sense that Dodd-Frank did not end too big to fail,” said Mark Calabria, director of financial-regulation studies at the Cato Institute in Washington and a former aide to Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama when he was the ranking Republican on the Banking Committee.

Three of the four largest U.S. banks -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) -- are bigger today than they were in 2007, heightening the risk of economic damage if one gets into trouble. JPMorgan’s 2012 trading loss of more than $6.2 billion from a bet on credit derivatives raised questions anew about whether the largest institutions have grown too complex for oversight.

Global Economic Calendar (18-September-2012)

Global Economic Calendar for 18th September 2012
**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (17-September-2012)

Global Economic Calendar for 17th September 2012
**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)