Quickie on EURUSD.

EURUSD holds steady just beneath the 1.43-level with interim resistance seen at 1.4330, followed by 1.4360 and 1.44. Subsequent ceilings are eyed at 1.4440, backed by 1.4470 and 1.45. Support is seen at 1.4280, followed by 1.4230 and 1.42. Additional floors will emerge at 1.4150, followed by 1.41 and 1.4070.

Global Events Calendar [24-08-2009] - [28-08-2009]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+8:00).
*Click on it for the enlarged version.

A month of Ramadan. (Fasting month for Muslims)

Today, 22nd August 2009. Marks the first day of the fasting month for Muslims around the globe. The month where participating Muslims refrain from eating, drinking, sexual conduct, smoking, and indulging in anything that is in excess or ill-natured; from dawn until sunset.Ramaḍan is a time to fast for the sake of Allah, and to offer more prayer than usual, showing much gratitude to Allah for what he has given them.

Wishing all Muslims around the world a safe and healthy month of Ramadan.

Hoenig Stirs Debate on Bank Failures as Fed Forum Convenes.

Source: Bloomberg.com

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The host for central bankers attending the Federal Reserve conference this weekend to discuss the financial crisis is a regional Fed chief who’s making waves with his proposal for letting big U.S. banks fail.

Thomas Hoenig, the Kansas City Fed president, will welcome Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and dozens of other central bankers to the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting today. Hoenig said he hopes the gathering will serve as a model for handling crises in the future.

Bernanke has urged Congress to back part of Hoenig’s proposal for dealing with faltering big banks, which would wipe out shareholder equity in any that receive government aid. The Treasury Department’s so-called resolution authority plan, while likely to result in stockholder losses, doesn’t require it.

“Tom is leading the mainstream on this,” said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, now senior economic adviser with New York-based Soleil Securities Corp. “He’s ahead of the curve.”

Hoenig, 62, took office in 1991 and is soon to be the longest-serving Fed policy maker. Out of the 12 regional Fed presidents, he is one of two to have served as a head of bank supervision. Hoenig is tougher than his colleagues on inflation, having dissented from interest-rate votes four times since 1995, always for tighter policy.

Alternative to Bailouts

Companies with weak capital or investor confidence shouldn’t be bailed out, Hoenig said in a private talk in Omaha, Nebraska, in March. He said the government instead should declare them insolvent, replace managers, remove the bad assets and require shareholders to take losses. Hoenig broke from his usual practice of speaking from notes on index cards for non- economic comments and released written text entitled “Too Big Has Failed.”

Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas asked for a copy of the speech after reading a newspaper article about it. He invited Hoenig to testify at an April hearing of the Joint Economic Committee, where Brownback is the ranking Senate Republican. Brownback said he had received “huge numbers of calls” from constituents angry about bank bailouts.

“Tom putting it out there, said, ‘You’re frustrated and you’re mad and there’s a way to address it,’” Brownback said in an interview. “It gave it, I think, a realistic, regulator approach from a respected individual.” He said he would like Hoenig to address lawmakers again this year.

The debate has been fueled by multibillion dollar government rescues of financial companies including Citigroup Inc. and American International Group Inc. Lawmakers in line with Hoenig include Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Banking Committee.

Shifting Risk

“Our regulatory reform effort must place the risk back where it belongs, on the risk takers and not on the taxpayers,” Shelby said in a statement.

Bernanke echoed Hoenig’s views in recent congressional testimony. In July 24 remarks to the House Financial Services Committee, the Fed chief indicated support for the Treasury’s resolution plan while adding that Congress might want to add some constraints such as requiring shareholders to bear losses.

“People are starting to sit up and take notice of his remarks,” said Camden Fine, president of Independent Community Bankers of America, a Washington-based trade group. “It’s influencing the debate.”

Not everybody agrees with Hoenig’s recommendation of setting strict guidelines to handle financial failures.

“You have to trust the authorities with some ability to change the rules when they need to,” said William Isaac, former head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and now chairman of the global financial services unit of LECG Corp., an economic and financial consulting company based in Emeryville, California.

Vigorous Debate

While Hoenig’s plan may not be covered in the formal discussions at Jackson Hole, his fingerprints extend past the brief remarks he delivers: Hoenig approves topics and speakers, with an eye to fostering debate.

“It has to be vigorous,” Hoenig said during an interview in a conference room next to his 14th-floor office at the bank’s new limestone-and-glass headquarters building in Kansas City. “I don’t think we’ll get better if we don’t listen to our critics as well as to those who praise us.”

Scheduled speakers include Bernanke tomorrow, along with Trichet, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, and less- well-known professors such as Carl Walsh of the University of California at Santa Cruz and Ricardo Caballero, chairman of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s economics department.

“I’m hoping that this becomes, in a sense, a lessons- learned and a beginning of a blueprint,” Hoenig said.

Roots in Iowa

Thomas Michael Hoenig grew up in Fort Madison, Iowa, the second of seven children of a plumber and homemaker. After being drafted into the Army and serving in Vietnam, he completed graduate studies in economics at Iowa State University in Ames. Unlike most students, Hoenig was ready with his dissertation topic, bank competition.

“He decided what he wanted to write his dissertation on and came in and told me,” recalled Dudley Luckett, a retired professor who was Hoenig’s adviser.

Hoenig joined the Kansas City Fed as an economist in 1973. He played basketball there with another young economist, Donald Kohn, who’s now the central bank’s vice chairman.

One of Hoenig’s defining experiences occurred in 1982, when he was on the front lines during the failure of Oklahoma City’s Penn Square Bank, which triggered a national banking crisis and helped precipitate the 1984 government takeover of Continental Illinois National Bank & Trust Co.

Principles Approach

“We learned lessons about concentrations of credit,” Hoenig said. That and subsequent events helped shape his view that setting hard rules for banks was better than the so-called principles-based approach, which favors wide-ranging edicts such as treating customers fairly. The U.K.’s financial regulator held itself out as a principles-based regulator until this year.

“There’s nothing in this crisis that I haven’t seen before,” Hoenig said.

Warning about dangers posed by big banks isn’t new for Hoenig. In a 1999 speech, Hoenig said the rise of “mega financial institutions” created a risk of a “less stable and a less efficient financial system” because the government would be reluctant to close troubled companies, creating implicit guarantees for some depositors and creditors.

Hoenig will become the longest-serving Fed policy maker this year when Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern, who has also made a name studying too-big-to-fail, retires.

“I don’t ever recall him being so vocal on a subject like this,” said Douglas Lee, who runs Economics from Washington, a consulting firm in Potomac, Maryland. “He will certainly be a voice that will be listened to.”

Police investigating death of Freddie Mac official...

Source: Mail.com

David Kellermann, the acting chief financial officer of mortgage giant Freddie Mac, was found dead at his home Wednesday morning in what police said was an apparent suicide.

Mary Ann Jennings, director of public information for the Fairfax County, Va., Police Department, said Kellermann was found dead in his Reston, Va., home. The 41-year-old Kellermann has been Freddie Mac's chief financial officer since September.

Jennings said that a crime scene crew and homicide detectives were investigating the death, but that there didn't appear to be any sign of foul play.

McLean-based Freddie Mac has been criticized heavily for reckless business practices that some argue contributed to the housing and financial crisis. Freddic Mac is a government-controlled company that owns or guarantees about 13 million home loans. CEO David Moffett resigned last month.

Freddie Mac and sibling company Fannie Mae, which together own or back more than half of the home mortgages in the country, have been hobbled by skyrocketing loan defaults and have received about $60 billion in combined federal aid.

Kellermann was named acting chief financial officer in September 2008, after the resignation of Anthony "Buddy" Piszel, who stepped down after the September 2008 government takeover. The chief financial officer is responsible for the company's financial controls, financial reporting and oversight of the company's budget and financial planning.

Before taking that job, Kellerman served as senior vice president, corporate controller and principal accounting officer. He was with Freddie Mac for more than 16 years.

Administration seeks to free frozen credit markets...

Source: Mail.com

AP - Monday, 23 March, 2009 10:21:38 PM
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER

The Obama administration took a fresh shot at ending a national paralysis in lending Monday, teaming up with investors to buy bad bank assets and ease credit for hard-pressed consumers and businesses.

The program, announced by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, was not the first such attempt by the new administration to revitalize an economy mired in recession.

Geithner pleaded for patience, saying work to rehabilitate the banking and financial industry has to go forward despite "deep anger and outrage" over bad lending and investment practices.

The newest initiative, he told reporters, will seek to harness government and private resources to purchase an initial half-trillion dollars of bad assets off the balance sheets of banks. And he held out the expectation that the program eventually could grow to $1 trillion

Wall Street seemed to feel rejuvenated, at least at the opening. In late morning, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 221 at 7,500. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 23 at 792, and the Nasdaq composite index is up 42 at 1,500.

But the investor reaction to the administration's initial bank rescue program on Feb. 10 was anything but enthusiastic. Disappointed investors sent the Dow Jones down that day by a whopping 380 points.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Obama administration took a fresh shot at ending a national paralysis in lending Monday, teaming up with investors to buy bad bank assets and ease credit for hard-pressed consumers and businesses.

The program, announced by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, was not the first such attempt by the new administration to revitalize an economy mired in recession.

Geithner pleaded for patience, saying work to rehabilitate the banking and financial industry has to go forward despite "deep anger and outrage" over bad lending and investment practices.

The newest initiative, he told reporters, will seek to harness government and private resources to purchase an initial half-trillion dollars of bad assets off the balance sheets of banks. And he held out the expectation that the program eventually could grow to $1 trillion in purchases.

Apology...

Hey everyone,

I apologise for not informing earlier that I will be on a trading holiday for this Month of March and April. Been busy and taking time out for R&R with my wife and family. With school holidays and everything, been spending a lot of time with my wife and family for BBQs and family quality time :)

With the time spent with my family, I also manage to have a little bit of time, putting things together for my nature of business to enhance benefits for the community.

Everything for this blog will resume as per normal once the month of April ends and a new month of May begins :) I still wish everyone a safe trading profits for the time to come :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Warmest Regards,
Ash Ariffin

Consumer spending rises in Jan, unlikely to last...

Source: Mail.com

Consumer spending rose in January after falling for a record six straight months, pushed higher by purchases of food and other nondurable items. But the increase is expected to be fleeting given all the problems facing the economy.

The Commerce Department said Monday that consumer spending rose 0.6 percent in January, even better than the 0.4 percent gain that economists expected.

Personal incomes rose 0.4 percent in January, partly reflecting the cost-of-living adjustments provided to millions of Social Security recipients. Still, that was better than the 0.2 percent decline economists expected.

The personal savings rate surged to 5 percent, the highest level since 1995 as consumers continued to sock away more of their incomes amid the deepening recession.

The 0.6 percent rise in spending followed a record six straight declines, including a 1 percent drop in December when retailers endured their worst holiday shopping season in at least four decades.

The January increase was driven by a sharp 1.3 percent rise in purchases of nondurable goods led by much higher spending on food. Durable goods posted a tiny 0.1 percent increase, as Americans again avoided spending on cars and other large items.

While the 0.6 percent increase in consumer spending was the largest since May, analysts do not expect the strength to continue amid a recession that's already the longest in a quarter-century.

The cutback in consumer spending has been a key factor making this recession so severe. The government reported last week that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, shrank at an annual rate of 6.2 percent in the final three months of 2008. That was the sharpest fall in about 26 years.

The economic weakness is keeping a lid on inflation. A price gauge tied to consumer spending showed a modest increase of 0.2 percent in January after three straight monthly declines that reflected sharp drops in energy costs. Excluding food and energy, the price gauge rose 0.1 percent in January and has risen only 1.6 percent in the last 12 months.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of total economic activity, was falling at an annual rate of 4.3 percent during the fourth quarter, the biggest drop since the second quarter of 1980.

The 0.4 percent increase in personal incomes followed two months of declines and was somewhat surprising in light of the massive layoffs that have occurred this year. The country lost a net total of 598,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate jumped to a 16-year high of 7.6 percent.

However, January incomes got a boost from the cost-of-living adjustment made to Social Security benefits and a pay raise given to federal civilian and military workers.

The slump in consumer spending in recent months has been tough on many of the nation's retailers. Macy's Inc. last month said its fourth-quarter earnings fell almost 59 percent, while J.C. Penney Co. recorded a 51 percent drop in earnings and projected a wider first-quarter loss than analysts had expected.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, managed to buck the trend. The company reported better-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter as it appeared to benefit from a wave of store liquidations at former competitors such as Circuit City Stores Inc.

My trades for February 2009...

Hello everyone,

These are my trades for February 2009. Click on it for the enlarge image.

Warmest Regards,
Ash Ariffin

My GBP/USD Trade (27-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hey everyone,

My trade on the GBP/USD (27-02-2009).

After how yesterday's price went, my 200ma and Weekly Pivot Point seems to be a strong resistance. I am looking into a little bit of selling today on this pair.

After price action broke the minor support of the morning movements,my MAs are down, Fast MACD is down and my Stochs are down. I placed an order to sell at the price line of 1.4250. My order was filled in like around 20mins at 3:45pm (Singapore Time).

Stop Loss at 1.4285 (35pips) and Target Profit at 1.4175 (75pips). Risk : Reward = 35 : 75 = 1 : 2.14. Why Target Profit at 1.4175? It seems like a good support for the last two days and it is just above today's Pivot S1.

Basically, I didn't look at my trade after I shifted my Stop Loss to entry price during the next hour. When I came back to see on my trade, my Target Profit has been executed at 4:49pm (Singapore Time).

75pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/JPY Trade (24-02-2009) --- Update (Final)

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time



Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hi everyone,

Update from my previous trade.

Link to my previous trade > Click Here.

The course of the price movements. I have since moved my Protective Stop to the price line of 96.60, securing 200pips of profit due to the movements of price today. It is consolidating with a formation that looks like a mini "Head and Shoulder". It is possible that market will go through some correction.

I have been stopped out with my Protective Stop executed at 7:07pm (Singapore Time) with 200pips profit.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/JPY Trade (24-02-2009) --- Position Open

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hi everyone,

My trade on the USD/JPY (24-02-2009).

I am looking for a buy position of all odds on this pair today due to price action for the past few days :)

What made me to look to buy is that in the Weekly chart, there is momentum on the upside with market breaching the 23.6% Fibo Retracement last week. Yesterday, in the Daily chart, a good up trust from the market and looking at how the up trust moved in the Hourly chart, I am putting my odds on looking to buy this pair today.

I opened the buy position at the price line of 94.60 at 10:53am (Singapore Time). It broke the micro trend resistance from the few previous hour. My MAs is healthy, both Fast and Slow MACD pointing upwards and Stochs are healthy as well. Without any hesitation, the trade was opened.

Stop Loss at 94.25 (35pips) and Target Profit at 97.40 (280pips). Risk : Reward = 35 : 280 = 1 : 8. Why 97.40 as my Target Profit? It is the high of 24-11-2008 and it is just below today's Pivot R3.

As of now, I am around 130pips in the money and I have closed half of the position at 95.96 with 136pips profit at 9:35pm (Singapore Time) :) I am letting the other half float. Stop Loss has been shifted to Protective Stop at 95.60 (100pips).

Will definitely update when this trade is fully closed.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/CHF Trade (23-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hello everyone,

My trade on the USD/CHF (23-09-2009).

After how dramatically the market closes last Friday, I was looking forward to such commitment today for continuation. To much disappointment, there weren't any. There was no commitment from sellers in this particular pair of currency.

What did happened is that buyers were fighting the market and a strong price rejection happened and it created a double-bottom chart pattern formation and after than, there was an up close candle which shows buyers commitment. I initiated a long position at the price line of 1.1540 at 4:40pm (Singapore Time). My Stochs is in line with what I saw.

Stop Loss at 1.1510 (30pips) and Target Profit at 1.1630 (90pips). Why 1.1630 as my Target Profit? Using Fibo, this price line is just above the 38.2%, above today's Pivot Point and it is my Weekly Pivot point.

Trade was close when it hit my Target Profit at 6:48pm (Singapore Time). 90pips profit for this trade.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My AUD/USD Trade (19-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time


Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hello people,

My trade on the AUD/USD (19-02-2009).

I was expecting a buy opportunity due to analysis of Daily chart and how yesterday's price movements closes compared to the day before.

So, I initiated a buy position at the price line of 0.6416 at 11:06am (Singapore Time). There was a little risk that the market might be stuck in a range bound trading but I was more confident on the double-bottom, compliment by my MAs, Fast and Slow MACDs and Stochs. My entry price was initiated as close as possible to the MAs.

My Stop Loss was at 0.6386 (30pips) and Target Profit at 0.6480 (64pips). Risk : Reward = 1 : 2.13. Why Target Profit at 0.6480? It is just above today's Pivot R2 and this price line appears to be quite sensitive for the historical price movements in one hour chart.

Shifted Stop Loss to entry price when I was around 30pips in the money. Then to the high of the 7:00am (GMT) candle when 9:00am (GMT) starts.

Target Profit was executed at 6:11pm (Singapore Time). 64pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Sterling Outlook (18-Feb-2009)...

Source: DailyFX.com

The GBP/USD opened in Asia around 1.4240 after a steady US session that followed a volatile London session. Unlike yesterday, the Asian session was extremely quiet today with little in the way of flows. The GBP/USD traded up to 1.4269 at one stage when the USD/JPY led the USD broadly lower, but there was little follow-through and the pairing settled back around the opening 1.4240 level for the balance of the session.

The EUR/GBP grinded a bit higher during the Asian session after a major bank put out a buy recommendation on the cross. The EUR/GBP traded up to 0.8845 after opening the session around 0.8835.

Sentiment towards the USD remains bullish and is likely to continue that way while the deep concerns over the global banking sector persist. The GBP is vulnerable to financial sector concerns and was one of the reasons some are recommending selling the GBP even at these depressed levels.

As we all have witnessed in the recent past, any relief rally in the banking sector can set off a vicious correction higher for the GBP/USD. UK CBI will be released later today.

My USD/JPY Trade (11-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Hey everyone,

My trade on the USD/JPY (11-02-2009).

After the whole day of movements, I see in the charts that this pair was not able to provide any movements downwards. I did not pluck this analysis out of thin air. From the charts, it showed that beginning of the day, it hovered for awhile before breaking downwards continuation but, a big but, it was not able to break below today's Pivot Point S1.

I waited for price action and I went in to initiate a buy position at the price line of 90.088 at 09:37pm (Singapore Time). This trade was initiated with regards to purely on price action (how price hovered above the S1 support and how the trade was entered when it broke the "mini tweezer top" of the hovering price) and ignoring my MAs but my Fast MACD and Stochs was in line. A very risky trade but a well calculated one.

My Stop Loss at 89.7088 (30pips) and Target Profit at 90.54 (46pips). Risk : Reward = 1 : 1.53. I am being very conservative and that is the reason why I have chosen my Target Profit at the price line of 90.54 which is the high of today's morning trading.

Since this trade was placed with a very tight Target Profit and Stop Loss, it was closed at 12:52am (Singapore Time) with my Target Profit executed. A very fast trade done. I rarely do this kind of trades unless I am sure of it.

46pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Negotiations intensify on final stimulus plan...

Source: Mail.com

Negotiators for Congress and the White House have tentatively settled on a $790 billion price tag on President Barack Obama's economic stimulus bill and are working to narrow differences on individual elements of the bill.

After unofficial talks stretching into the late evening on Tuesday, officials announced a formal meeting of negotiators for mid-afternoon in the Capitol as they try to get a bill to Obama's desk for signing by week's end.

Democratic aides said that Obama's negotiating team had prevailed in restoring some lost funding for school construction projects during talks Tuesday, and had also increased aid to state governments above the $39 billion approved in a compromise with a handful of Senate GOP moderates.

Obama's "Making Work Pay" tax credit would be reduced from $500 per worker to $400, with couples eligible for an $800 credit, instead of $1,000, said a Democratic aide close to the talks. This aide spoke on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are private.

Earlier Tuesday, the Senate sailed to approval of its $838 billion economic stimulus bill, but with only three moderate Republicans signing on and then demanding the bill's cost go down when the final version emerges from negotiations.

Negotiators initially were working with a target of about $800 billion for the final bill, lawmakers said. But GOP moderate Arlen Specter, R-Pa., said Tuesday night on MSNBC's "Hardball" that he was insisting on a figure at around $780 billion.

Baucus had said earlier that $35.5 billion to provide a $15,000 homebuyer tax credit, approved in the Senate last week, would be cut back. There was also pressure to reduce a Senate-passed tax break for new car buyers, according to Democratic officials.

Asked about the timing of a final deal, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs on Wednesday cautiously said "I don't want to disrupt the delicateness by laying down anything or predicting." But he told The Associated Press that negotiators were "making good progress."

"Time's growing short," said Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, as she walked into the latest in a series of meetings with a small group of Senate moderates whose votes are essential to passage of the bill.

Wednesday's meeting built on a series of negotiations Tuesday in which White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and other top Obama aides met in the Capitol with Democratic leaders as well as moderate senators from both parties whose support looms as crucial for any eventual agreement.

House Democratic leaders promised to fight to restore some of $16 billion for school construction cut by the Senate. Those funds could create more than 100,000 jobs, according to Will Straw, an economist at the liberal Center for American Progress.

In another development, Obama announced Wednesday that Caterpillar's chief executive told him the company will rehire some of the 22,000 workers it laid off last month, if the stimulus bill passes. The heavy equipment maker can be expected to benefit as highway construction funds begin to flow.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., acknowledged Wednesday that finding an agreement on differences over tax cuts and aid to states and localities will be difficult.

"We're going to have to resolve those differences. Simply talking about what we need to do is not going to be very effective if we don't do it," he said in an interview on the Fox News Channel.

The moderate senators -- Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine and Specter -- are demanding that the final House-Senate compromise resemble the Senate measure, which devotes about 42 percent of its $838 billion in debt-financed costs to tax cuts, including Obama's signature $500 tax credit for 95 percent of workers, with $1,000 going to couples.

The $820 billion House measure is about one-third tax cuts.

Collins said last week she won't vote for any final bill exceeding $800 billion in spending and tax cuts. Specter warned that the Senate bill must stay "virtually intact."

The GOP moderates also want the final bill to retain a $70 billion Senate plan to patch the alternative minimum tax, or AMT, for one year. The provision would make sure 24 million families won't get socked with unexpected tax bills during the 2010 filing season.

The AMT was designed 40 years ago to make sure wealthy people pay at least some tax, but it is updated for inflation each year to avoid tax increases averaging $2,300 a year. Fixing the annual problems now allows lawmakers to avoid difficult battles down the road, but economists say the move won't do much to lift the economy.

House leaders are tempering expectations that they'll restore many of the cuts.

"You cannot allow the perfect to be the enemy of the effective and of the necessary, and we will not," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

While they're fighting to preserve cuts to Obama priorities, Specter is fighting to preserve an enormous $10 billion increase for the National Institutes of Health, while Collins obtained $870 million for community health centers in talks last week.

World stocks fall on skepticism over US bank plan...

Source: Mail.com

World stock markets were mostly lower Wednesday following a steep sell-off on Wall Street, as investors reacted with skepticism to the U.S. government's latest plan to rescue the ailing financial industry with as much as $2 trillion in funding.

By noon in mainland Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was down 0.04 percent at 4,211.30 and France's CAC 40 slipped 0.3 percent at 3,013.28. Germany's DAX scraped into positive territory and was up 0.1 percent at 4,511.95.

Across Europe, bank stocks dragged down market indexes. Credit Suisse dropped as much as 8.3 percent after Switzerland's second biggest bank reported a fourth-quarter net loss of 6 billion Swiss francs ($5.61 billion), much worse than markets were expecting, as both asset management and investment banking lost money amid the financial turmoil.

Nearly ever major market in Asia retreated, further hurt by new figures showing China's exports plunged 17.5 percent in January -- the sharpest drop in more than a decade.

As in the U.S., investors across Asian and Europe questioned whether the revamped bailout program, unveiled Tuesday by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, would be enough to absorb the bad assets saddling bank balance sheets and free up frozen credit markets for consumers and businesses.

"It's fair to say that the latest version of the bailout plan in the U.S. was greeted with some disappointment, simply because there was a complete lack of detail which was what investors were hoping for," said Richard Hunter, head of UK equities at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers in London. "Certainly in drawing a line once and for all over toxic assets, the markets will be waiting for further detail from the U.S. authorities."

He added that disappointed investors had been "going back to more risk averse instruments, such as U.S. Treasuries and gold."

Geithner said the plan to get trillions of dollars in financing flowing through the world's largest economy was urgently needed as part of the government's effort to stave off "catastrophic failure" of institutions. A centerpiece involves the government teaming with the private sector to buy up to $1 trillion in souring assets from financial firms. A separate lending program would be expanded to as much as $1 trillion from $200 billion for consumers and businesses.

But officials were short on specifics about how exactly the public-private partnership might work, analysts said.

Garry Evans, a chief Asian equity strategist with HSBC in Hong Kong, called the plan "muddled." He said the government was skirting around what many investors have already concluded: that the U.S. may have to nationalize the banks for a period.

"They have still philosophically backed away from the ultimate conclusion, which is the government will have to take over financial institutions," he said. "Philosophically that's quite hard for the U.S. government to admit, but the history of banking crises shows that is what governments usually do."

Not even the colossal amounts of money announced in the U.S. are likely to make up the funding shortfall created by the risky mortgage securities and other distressed assets banks are holding, said Paul Schulte, a chief Asia equity strategist at Nomura International in Hong Kong.

The financial hole could be as big as $4 trillion, but U.S. officials have yet to fully explain the scope of the problem, he said.

"The problem is much larger than people thought and the solutions to this much larger problem are still not coherent," Schulte said. "The plan is absolutely a step in the right direction, but we have like 45 more steps to go."

While recouping some of their losses, most Asian markets closed down. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng tumbled 341.43 points, or 2.5 percent, to 13,539.21, while South Korea's Kospi lost 8.69, or 0.7 percent, to 1,190.18. Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday.

Elsewhere, benchmarks in Australia and India fell 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent.

In mainland China, Shanghai's main stock measure sank about 0.2 percent in a choppy session after news of last month's fall in exports, the third straight month of declines.

The collapse in global demand for Chinese textiles, toys and other goods are devastating export-dependent coastal areas. The figures add to the threat of more job losses and increase pressure on Beijing to boost slumping economic growth.

U.S. stock futures pointed to a slightly higher start after markets plummeted the day before as investors soured on the financial rescue. Dow futures were up 0.6 percent at 7,918 and Standard and Poor's futures were up 0.6 percent at 831.

On Tuesday, the Dow industrials fell 381.99, or 4.62 percent, to 7,888.88. Broader stock indicators also tumbled, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index down 42.73, or 4.91 percent, to 827.16. It was the biggest drop for the index since the Obama inauguration on Jan. 20.

In oil, light sweet crude for March delivery rose 44 cents to $37.99 a barrel in European trade. The contract fell $2.01 to settle at $37.55 overnight.

My USD/CHF Trade (09-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Hello everybody,

My first trade for the week. Pair chosen is the USD/CHF. Why this particular pair? It is because from last week's close, it was unable to clear above 1.1714 and market didn't have any momentum left on the upside. So, for this morning, I had been looking for a sell for this pair.

To be honest, I didn't look at the charts the whole of today because I want to refrain myself from unnecessary trading and on top of that, I had something to attend to. When I came home around 05:00pm (Singapore Time), I saw market had an upward move but it was unable to sustain with the high of 1.1677. It is also unable to break today's Pivot Point level at 1.1657.

At that point of time, I was at the right place at the right time because my MAs are down, Long MACD is down and Stochs was crossing down. I finally, initiate a short position at the price line of 1.1624 at 07:24pm (Singapore Time) after I was convince and sure of everything I see in the charts. Why do I need the extra convincing work? It is because I am deciding whether to or not to break my trading rules. Price is approaching my Weekly Pivot line and today's Pivot Point S1 but the chart pattern of a lower high and price action movements gives me the extra confidence.

My Stop Loss at 1.1654 (30pips) and Target Profit at 1.1510 (114pips). Risk : Reward = 30 : 114 = 1 : 3.8. Why my Target Profit at that price? It is above today's Pivot Point S2 which happens to be a good support in the daily charts. With what I've analyse, I didn't want to push my luck.

Shortly after placing my trade, I went out for dinner with my wife and run a few errands. I came home around 11:20pm (Singapore Time). My trade has been closed with my Target Profit executed at 10:24pm (Singapore Time).

114pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My AUD/USD Trade (03-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Hey everyone,

My trade today on the AUD/USD.

Initiated a buy position at 02:39pm (Singapore Time). Expecting a continuation from the market after upward movement in the morning. Although at my point of entry, my Stochs are turning down but my MAs are above, Long and Fast MACD are above. Plus market momentum was dieing off.

Initiated a buy position at the price line of 0.6364. Stop Loss at 0.6334(30pips) and Target Profit at 0.6415(51pips) which is near to today's high and it seems like a strong resistance level. Risk : Reward = 30 : 51 = 1 : 1.7.

As priced moved higher, around 20pips in the money. I had decided to shift my Stop Loss to Protective Stop at entry price. Being very conservative.

This trade was closed at my entry price at 05:23pm (Singapore Time). 0pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...