Global Economic Calendar (01-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 01st March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Saudi Stocks Drop to Nine-Month Low, Leading Mideast, on Region's Unrest

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark stock index plunged to a nine-month low, leading a drop in Middle East markets, on concern clashes in Libya that caused oil prices to surge to a more than two-year high will stall a global recovery.

Al-Rajhi Bank, the kingdom’s largest publicly traded lender by market value, dropped 5.2 percent and Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the world’s largest petrochemicals maker, tumbled to the lowest since October. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slid a 10th day, slumping 5 percent to 5,950.64, the lowest since June 6, at the 3:30 p.m. close in Riyadh. The measure has lost 11 percent since Tunisia’s former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled the country amid protests that spurred similar uprisings in nations across the region. Oman’s measure decreased 2.8 percent as protests erupted in the sultanate.

“With no clear end to the geo-political turmoil in the region, local investors are erring on the side of caution,” said Amro Halwani, senior equity sales trader at Shuaa Capital PSC in Riyadh. “The regional uncertainty, with Libya this week’s reason to sell, has pushed fundamentals out of the picture. The surge in oil is an ongoing threat of a possible derailing in the global economic recovery, and gave investors a reason to move away from riskier assets.”

The United Nations Security Council voted to freeze the foreign assets of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi and four aides and to bar them from traveling, in the broadest international effort to halt the attacks. Protests calling for the ouster of Qaddafi have been met with a violent crackdown. Qaddafi has bolstered defenses in the capital, Tripoli, and launched counter-strikes against opponents who have seized much of the rest of the country.

Global Economic Calendar (28-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 28th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

U.S. Government Shutdown Looms as Lawmakers Deadlock

A U.S. government shutdown looms after lawmakers deadlocked yesterday over a Republican proposal to cut $4 billion as part of a budget measure needed to keep federal agencies running.

House Republicans are working on a plan, slated for a vote next week, that would attach cuts to a bill funding the government through mid-March. That was immediately rejected by Senate Democrats, who are demanding a 30-day extension that would keep budgets at their current levels.

Lawmakers, who return to Washington next week from their Presidents Day recess, will have just days to find agreement, because the spending measure now keeping agencies in business expires March 4. Without agreement, the government will shut down.

“Americans understand we need to stop the spending binge in Washington to create a better environment for job creation,” said House Speaker John Boehner, an Ohio Republican. “So I ask Senator Reid, with all due respect: what are you willing to cut?”

Jon Summers, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, called the proposal a “non-starter” because it would amount to phasing in the $61 billion in budget cuts passed last week by the House.

“This isn’t a compromise,” said Summers. “This bill would simply be a two-week version of the reckless measure the House passed last weekend. It would impose the same spending levels in the short term as their initial proposal does in the long term, and it isn’t going to fool anyone.”

Qaddafi Holds Tripoli as Eastern Cities Fall to Opponents

Opponents of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi consolidated control over cities in the oil-rich east while he clamped down on Tripoli, using tanks to block highways and security forces to attack residents, witnesses said.

Foreign governments began discussing possible intervention and stepped up efforts to extract their citizens from what fleeing Egyptians said is turning into a bloodbath. Egyptians returning through a Libyan checkpoint now in the hands of Qaddafi’s opponents told of his supporters, most of them foreign mercenaries, attacking anyone in the capital who was on the streets.

“It’s a massacre in there,” Mohamed Yehia, 23, said today after entering the Egyptian border town of Salloum. “He is crazy. The world must know what he’s doing to his people.”

The unrest in Africa’s third-biggest oil producer sent crude advancing for a sixth day, with Brent reaching a 30-month high of almost $120 in London. Stocks slid, with the Stoxx 600 capping its longest losing streak in almost five months. Markets are responding to concern that crude supplies may be further affected if the struggle against Qaddafi becomes more protracted or violent, possibly leading to civil war. Barclays Capital estimated that about 1 million barrels of daily oil production may have been cut.

Orders for U.S. Durable Goods Increase on Surge in Aircraft

Orders for U.S. durable goods climbed in January as demand for aircraft rebounded after plunging the prior month.

Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years rose 2.7 percent after a 0.4 percent drop in December that was smaller than previously estimated, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Orders excluding transportation equipment unexpectedly dropped, reflecting a recurring pattern of declines in capital goods in the first month of a quarter.

Manufacturers from Intel Corp. to Navistar International Corp. are forecasting rising demand as firms in the U.S. and abroad ramp up investment. While factories remain a mainstay of the recovery, limited improvement in the labor and housing markets helps explain why the Federal Reserve is forging ahead with a plan to bolster the economy.

“The manufacturing sector continues to be a main driver of the economy,” said John Herrmann, a senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Markets LLC in Boston. “We see a more moderate period of growth” for factories in coming months, he said.

Another report showed fewer Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment insurance last week, indicating an improving labor market. Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 22,000 to 391,000 in the week ended Feb. 19, according to figures from the Labor Department.

Global Economic Calendar (25-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 25th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Temporary No Posting...

Hi everyone. My apology for not posting anything since Monday (21-Feb-2011). I am not feeling well, down with Stomach Flu, countless times of shitting and fever.

Postings on this blog will resume as per normal as soon as I am up and running again.

Sorry.

Dubai Shares Drop as Mideast Unrest Sparks Risk Aversion; Emaar, Zain Fall

Middle East shares slumped, sending Dubai’s benchmark stock index down the most this month, on concern political unrest in the region may spread.

Emaar Properties PJSC, builder of the world’s tallest skyscraper, dropped 4.7 percent. Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC, the United Arab Emirates’ biggest Shariah-compliant lender, fell the most since November. The DFM General Index retreated 3.7 percent, the most since Jan. 30, to 1,536.45 at the 2 p.m. close in Dubai. Kuwait’s gauge tumbled 2.5 percent, led by Mobile Telecommunications Co. as the company’s board rejected all purchase offers for its 25 percent stake in Zain Saudi Arabia.

Arab governments are cracking down on pro-democracy activists as uprisings that toppled leaders in Tunisia and Egypt spread to Libya, Algeria, Yemen and Bahrain. Prince Talal Bin Abdul Aziz, a member of Saudi Arabia’s royal family, said on Feb. 17 that the kingdom may see protests unless King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz introduces reforms, according to BBC Arabic TV.

“The spread of the geo-political tension into Bahrain is causing investors to be risk averse,” said Nabil Farhat, partner at Abu Dhabi-based Al Fajer Securities. “The risk of spreading is dependent on each country’s situation. If you have a country with high inflation, an autocratic regime, high unemployment and a big percentage of the population that is below the poverty level and young, then the risk is high.”

Home Sales Probably Fell, Goods Orders Rose as Factories Head U.S. Economy

Home sales probably fell in January, while orders for long-lasting goods climbed, a reminder that housing lags behind manufacturing as the U.S. recovery strengthens, economists said before reports this week.

Combined purchases of new and existing homes fell 2 percent to a 5.5 million annual pace, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Durable-goods bookings increased 3 percent last month, the survey showed.

Unemployment hovering near 9 percent means foreclosures may keep rising, adding to a glut of inventory that is depressing property values, hurting builders and homeowners. Growing exports, combined with increasing profits and tax incentives signed into law by President Barack Obama in December, will probably keep orders flowing to companies like Caterpillar Inc.

“Housing is basically flat on its back, and manufacturing is growing very fast, probably the biggest contrast in the economy,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. Home prices are still on the way down.”

Sales of existing homes fell 1.5 percent to a 5.2 million annual pace, economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the National Association of Realtors will report Feb. 23. Commerce Department figures the following day may show demand for new homes dropped 8.8 percent to a 300,000 rate, the survey showed. Purchases reached a record low 274,000 pace in August.

Global Economic Calendar (21-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 21st February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

G-20 Agrees on Yardsticks for Imbalances as U.S. Seeks Leverage on Yuan

Group of 20 finance officials agreed to closer monitoring of global economic imbalances, in a step toward smoothing the trade and investment distortions that plunged the world into crisis.

Yardsticks such as the current account and public and private debt will make up a scoreboard that, while not binding, may give the U.S. and Europe leverage to push for an appreciation of China’s currency.

With the world recovery entering a second year, yesterday’s G-20 sparring match over early warning indicators reflected the determination of emerging countries to challenge the West’s formula for managing the international economy.

“It wasn’t easy, there were obviously diverging interests,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told reporters after chairing the Paris meeting. The goal is “to test economic policies and determine to what extent they are favorable for all countries together and not just the basis of domestic economic policy.”

China will remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy in 2011, with a 9.6 percent expansion, the International Monetary Fund predicts. The Washington-based lender sees 3 percent growth in the U.S. and 1.5 percent in the 17-nation euro area.

‘Strengthening’ Recovery

“The global recovery is strengthening but is still uneven and downside risks remain,” the G-20 finance ministers and central bankers, representing 80 percent of world output, said in a statement. “While most advanced economies are seeing modest growth and persisting high unemployment, emerging economies are experiencing more robust growth, some with signs of overheating.”

On the eve of the meeting, China sought to ease the Beijing-Washington tension by raising bank-reserve requirements for the eighth time in a year and indicating that it will fight domestic inflation by extending a four-month-old cycle of interest-rate increases.

Higher reserve standards are not “the only method that we’ll use to battle inflation, it’s about using all means including rates and currency,” People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in an interview in Paris on Feb. 18. “One method doesn’t exclude the other.”

The yuan’s advance to 6.5732 per dollar on Feb. 18, the highest since late 1993, left U.S. and European policy makers calling for further gains to spur Chinese imports of western goods.

U.S. Loans in Foreclosure Tie Record; Lenders Delay Seizures

A record share of U.S. mortgages were in the foreclosure process at the end of 2010, matching the all-time high, as lenders and servicers delayed home seizures to investigate charges of improper documentation.

About 4.63 percent of loans were in foreclosure in the fourth quarter, up from 4.39 percent in the previous three months, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report today. The combined share of foreclosures and loans with overdue payments was 14 percent, or about one in every seven mortgages.

Property seizures plunged at the end of 2010 as lenders such as Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. temporarily halted proceedings to review their handling of court documents. That left more homes in the foreclosure process with their status unresolved. Repossessions tumbled 32 percent in the fourth quarter from the prior period, according to data from RealtyTrac Inc. in Irvine, California.

“It’s clear that the process issues were driving the increase,” Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the Washington- based Mortgage Bankers Association, said in an interview. “We would expect the foreclosure inventory to start coming down as that gets resolved and the court situations get cleared up.”

That share of mortgages in foreclosure tied the record reached in the first quarter of last year.

Foreclosure actions were started on 1.27 percent of home loans in the fourth quarter, down from 1.34 percent in the prior three months, according to the report. The share of mortgages with overdue payments dropped to 8.22 percent from 9.13 percent in the third quarter as an improving labor market and an expanding economy helped homeowners to stay current on their loans, Brinkmann said.

Bahrain Army Moves to End Protests as Unrest Spreads

Bahrain’s army was deployed in the capital, Manama, after five people were killed in clashes between pro-democracy protesters and police as unrest spread across the Middle East.

The military said it took control of large parts of the city and told people not to congregate in the main public areas. Police earlier used teargas shells and buckshot against mostly Shiite Muslim protesters who had gathered at the city’s Pearl Roundabout traffic junction to call for a constitutional monarchy and a change of government.

The dissent in Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, follows the toppling of autocratic rulers by popular movements in Egypt and Tunisia and marks the spread of unrest into the Persian Gulf, where most of the Middle East’s oil is produced. The past week has also seen anti-government protests in Libya, Africa’s biggest holder of crude oil reserves, and Yemen, a producer of liquefied natural gas.

Political risks to oil supply are “high and rising” amid unrest in the Middle East, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a report. Oil prices rose following reports from Iranian state-run Press TV that two of the country’s warships were heading for Egypt’s Suez Canal. Brent crude for April settlement climbed 15 cents to $103.93 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. The contract increased to $103.78 yesterday, the highest settlement since Sept. 25, 2008.

Global Economic Calendar (18-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 18th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Goldman Sachs to Close Fixed-Income Prop-Trading Group

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the U.S. bank that relies on fixed-income trading for the largest portion of its revenue, will shut its Global Macro Proprietary Trading desk, a person with knowledge of the decision said.

The eight-person desk, which trades currencies and stocks as well as products tied to interest rates and other fixed- income markets, will close in the days ahead, said the person, who declined to be named because the decision wasn’t public. Stephen Cohen, a spokesman for New York-based Goldman Sachs, declined to comment.

“Keeping the prop business going will have little benefit and closing it will be seen as a positive move to comply with Dodd-Frank,” said Christopher Wheeler, a London-based analyst with Mediobanca SpA, who has a “neutral” recommendation on Goldman Sachs.

Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among Wall Street firms breaking off or winding down such trading units to comply with the Volcker rule, a provision of the Dodd-Frank financial law that prohibits banks from betting capital for their own accounts. The intent was to avert losses that might cause the collapse of firms and the financial system.

The group reported results as part of Goldman Sachs’s fixed-income trading division, the person said. That division generated revenue of $13.7 billion in 2010, 35 percent of the firm’s total.

The Wall Street Journal reported the decision to close the trading desk yesterday.

Borders Files for Bankruptcy, Will Close Some Stores

Borders Group Inc., the second- biggest U.S. bookstore chain, filed for bankruptcy in New York today after management changes, job cuts and debt restructuring failed to make up for sagging book sales in the face of competition from Amazon.com Inc. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

Borders plans to keep operating and restructure with $505 million in so-called debtor-in-possession financing from lenders led by GE Capital, according to a statement. The 40-year-old chain listed debt of $1.29 billion and assets of $1.28 billion as of Dec. 25 in its Chapter 11 petition filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan.

The reorganization is only possible if Borders immediately closes 200 of its 642 stores, according to an emergency motion to sell furniture and merchandise filed in Manhattan bankruptcy court today. Sales need to start no later than Feb. 19 to take advantage of the President’s Day long weekend, and another 75 stores may need to close if concessions aren’t won from landlords, the company said.

“Closing the stores right away is essential because the Debtors are losing approximately $2 million per week at the closing stores,” lawyers for Borders wrote in court pleadings.

Market Value

Borders, whose market value has shrunk by more than $3 billion since 1998, racked up losses by failing to adapt to shifts in how consumers shop. Its first e-commerce site debuted in 2008, more than a decade after Amazon.com revolutionized publishing with online sales. The world’s largest online retailer beat it again by moving into digital books with the Kindle e-reader in 2007, a market Borders entered in July.

“Borders Group does not have the capital resources it needs to be a viable competitor,” the company’s president, Mike Edwards, said today in a statement. The bankruptcy will give it “time to reorganize in order to reposition itself to be a successful business for the long term.”

“Instead of leading and being innovative, they were certainly a follower,” said Michael Souers, an analyst for Standard & Poor’s in New York.

Borders, based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, began looking for a cash infusion in December. It said lenders cut its borrowing capacity, and that failure to find replacement credit could lead to a violation of its loan agreements and a “liquidity shortfall” in the first quarter of 2011.

Global Economic Calendar (17-Feb-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 17th February 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Deutsche Boerse Buys NYSE to Create Biggest Exchange Owner

Deutsche Boerse AG, operator of the Eurex futures platform and Frankfurt Stock Exchange, agreed to buy New York Stock Exchange parent NYSE Euronext in a $9.53 billion all-stock deal that creates the world’s largest owner of equities and derivatives markets.

Deutsche Boerse will swap one share of its own stock for one share in the new company, while every NYSE Euronext share will be converted into 0.47 share, according to a statement today. Deutsche Boerse will control 60 percent of the new corporation. Reto Francioni, the chief executive officer of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Boerse, will serve as chairman. Duncan Niederauer, CEO of New York-based NYSE Euronext, will keep that title at the combined organization.

While the merged entity will list corporations with about $15 trillion in value, more than any other exchange, what may prove more lucrative is ownership of growing venues for trading futures and options, said Rich Repetto, an analyst at Sandler O’Neill & Partners LP. The union follows Singapore Exchange Ltd.’s October bid for ASX Ltd., which runs the Australian stock market, and London Stock Exchange Group Plc’s agreement last week to buy Canada’s TMX Group Inc.

U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Climb Less Than Forecast

Sales at retailers rose less than forecast in January, showing it will be difficult for American consumers to sustain last quarter’s pickup in spending without bigger gains in employment.

Purchases increased 0.3 percent, the smallest gain since a drop in June, according to Commerce Department figures today in Washington. Other reports showed manufacturing in the New York area accelerated and confidence among home builders stagnated.

The sales data also indicated winter snowstorms may have played a role in the slowdown as Americans stayed away from restaurants and home-improvement stores. While Gap Inc. and Macy’s Inc. were among retailers topping analysts’ estimates as promotions lured post-holiday shoppers, rising food and gasoline prices may have caused households to cut back on non-essentials.

“There is some momentum in consumer spending, but it’s not particularly robust,” said Kevin Logan, chief U.S. economist at HSBC Securities USA Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the gain. “Things are recovering, but they’re not really healthy,” he said, and in addition, “the severe weather last month curtailed all kinds of outdoor activity.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated from a 32-month high after the reports, falling 0.4 percent to 1,327.35 at 11:54 a.m. in New York. The S&P Supercomposite Retailing Index decreased 0.1 percent.

Sales were projected to increase 0.5 percent based on the median forecast of 79 economists in the Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a gain of 1.1 percent to a drop of 0.5 percent. The December increase in sales was revised down to 0.5 percent from the 0.6 percent previously estimated.