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Monday, July 16, 2007

Sterling Outlook (16th July 2007)

The GBP/USD opened around 2.0340 after topping out between 2.0360/70 for the third day in a row. The GBP/USD traded down to 2.0322 in the Asian morning session when the USD broadly firmed led by the USD/JPY. The tone changed later in the morning and the dollar started to fade led by the AUD and NZD while the GBP/USD glided up to 2.0355.

The GBP/USD remained bid for the balance of the session despite talk of good selling interest camped between 2.0360/70. The EUR/GBP eased during the Asian session, as the dollar-bloc currencies outperformed when the USD came under a bit of pressure. The cross fell from the opening level at 0.6883 to 0.6772 before settling around 0.6775 for the balance of the session.

Sentiment towards the GBP/USD is decidedly bullish, as analysts feel that the GBP will be one of the main beneficiaries of ongoing US dollar weakness. In the short-term the GBP/USD needs to break above stubborn resistance at 2.0360/70 soon to maintain upward momentum. There is no data out of the UK today and only the Empire Mfg Survey out of the US today.

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