Euro Weakens Versus Dollar on Sovereign-Debt Concern

The euro fell for the first time in three days against the dollar on concern the region will struggle to contain its sovereign-debt crisis.

The currency slid versus most of its major counterparts after Greece’s Prime Minister George Papandreou said last week in Athens that he will press ahead with additional austerity measures after failing to win backing from opposition parties. New Zealand’s dollar dropped after surging today to its highest level since exchange-rate controls ended in 1985 as the nation’s trade surplus widened to a record in April.

“Until we get resolution, some clarity on what’s going on, the market is not going to have the confidence to take the euro higher,” said David Watt, senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada’s RBC Capital Markets unit in Toronto.

The euro depreciated 0.3 percent to $1.4277 at 1:23 p.m. in New York, from $1.4319 on May 27. The shared currency traded at 115.54 yen, compared with 115.67. The dollar was at 80.92 yen, compared with 80.80, after touching 80.70 on May 27, the lowest level since May 16. The pound fell 0.3 percent to $1.6464.

Markets are closed today in the U.S. for the Memorial Day holiday and in the U.K. for the Spring Bank Holiday.

The euro declined after Greece’s Antonis Samaras, leader of the biggest opposition party, New Democracy, rejected last week Papandreou’s plan for austerity measures, saying his party wouldn’t be blackmailed.

Global Economic Calendar (31-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 31st May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (30-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 30th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

U.S. Economy Expanded 1.8% in First Quarter

The U.S. economy grew at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter, less than forecast, reflecting a smaller gain in consumer spending than previously calculated.

The revised rise in gross domestic product was the same as estimated last month and compared with a 3.1 percent gain in the prior quarter, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 2.2 percent increase.

Consumer purchases fell short of forecasts, reflecting a smaller rise in spending on autos and utilities, and the revisions cut the fourth-quarter gain in wages by $24.6 billion, almost half, indicating a bleaker outlook for the biggest part of the economy. Even so, growing employment and exports may benefit manufacturers like Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) and sustain the expansion.

“Consumer spending was pretty anemic last quarter, and households are likely to be somewhat restrained going forward,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, who had forecast GDP would be revised to 1.9 percent. “One of the few things that remains strong is manufacturing, helped by the replacement cycle and foreign demand. Economic growth will run a little faster than the first quarter but nothing blockbuster.”

More Americans unexpectedly filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the labor market is struggling to gain momentum, another report showed today. Jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 424,000 in the week ended May 21, according to data from the Labor Department.

Global Economic Calendar (27-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 27th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Franc Strengthens Against Major Counterparts on Greek Debt-Crisis Concern

The Swiss franc climbed against all of its 16 most-traded peers, reaching a record versus the euro, on concern Greece’s debt crisis threatens the region’s economic recovery as European leaders struggle to resolve it.

The euro erased losses against the dollar as stocks rallied. The pound advanced after the U.K.’s gross domestic product rose in the first quarter. The franc climbed versus Europe’s shared currency for a fourth day, the longest winning streak in a month.

“There are still so many questions out there about Greece; you have half the world who says it needs to restructure, the other half saying don’t do it,” said Greg Salvaggio, senior vice president of capital markets at the currency-trading firm Tempus Consulting Inc in Washington.

The franc strengthened 1 percent to 1.2283 per euro at 1:47 p.m. in New York after reaching a record 1.2272, and it gained 0.9 percent to 87.21 centimes per dollar. The dollar was little changed at $1.4090 per euro. It appreciated to $1.3970 on May 23, the strongest level since March 17. The greenback was unchanged at 81.95 yen.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.3 percent after earlier falling 0.3 percent.

“Equities have turned positive, and the euro is benefiting from it,” said Brian Taylor, chief currency trader at Manufacturers & Traders Trust in Buffalo, New York. “The equity market is moving up a little bit despite the numbers that came out with durable goods.”

U.S. durable goods orders decreased 3.6 percent following a 4.1 percent jump in March, dropping the most in six months, Commerce Department data showed today.

Global Economic Calendar (26-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 26th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Taliban Raid Raises Concern Over Pakistan Nukes

A Taliban raid on a Pakistani airbase that destroyed some of the country’s newest surveillance planes has heightened concern that the military is unable to guard its own assets, including nuclear weapons.

The attack May 23 on the navy base in Karachi, the country’s biggest city, marked the deepest strike into an armed forces facility since militants stormed a building in the army’s general headquarters in Rawalpindi in 2009. The military, which oversees security for the nation’s estimated 70 to 120 nuclear warheads, has since 2008 sought to counter International Atomic Energy Agency fears about the safety of the stockpile.

“People will continue to suspect that we can’t protect our nuclear assets,” Muhammad Waseem, a political science professor at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, said by phone. The militant “organizations have ideological support within the security establishment from lower- to mid-level officers because we trained them and fought with them before 9/11.”

The attack also underscores the drawbacks of a military posture geared toward a conflict with Pakistan’s nuclear-armed neighbor India, rather than the domestic threats that have exposed the army’s vulnerability in recent years. Economic growth, sapped by terrorism, is forecast to slow to 2.5 percent from a targeted 4.5 percent this financial year, a fraction of what’s needed to lift Pakistani living standards.

Pakistan army spokesman Major General Athar Abbas declined in a phone call yesterday to answer questions about whether the 16-hour siege in Karachi by six guerrillas armed with rocket launchers and grenades brings into question the army’s ability to protect the country’s military facilities.

Goldman, Morgan Stanley Bullish on Commodities Boosting Oil Forecasts 20%

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Morgan Stanley increased their oil price forecasts by more than 20 percent, signaling a bullish outlook for commodities.

Goldman, which correctly advised investors to sell crude oil and copper last month before a price slump, boosted its 12- month prediction for Brent crude to $130 a barrel from $107, analysts led by Jeffrey Currie said in a report today. Morgan Stanley raised its Brent estimate by 20 percent to average $120 a barrel this year and by 24 percent to $130 in 2012, it said.

While Goldman and Morgan Stanley join JPMorgan Chase & Co. in saying price declines may present a buying opportunity, interest-rate increases to curb inflation and the European debt crisis have raised concerns that global growth may slow. China, the biggest consumer of everything from energy to copper and soybeans, has increased interest rates four times since mid- October and boosted bank reserve-ratio requirements eight times to cool the fastest inflation since 2008.

“Economic growth will likely be sufficient to tighten key supply-constrained markets in the second half, leading to higher prices from current levels,” the Goldman analysts said. They also advised buying copper and zinc.

Brent advanced as much as 1.5 percent to $111.72 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange today after a 2 percent drop yesterday. Copper for three-month delivery added 1.5 percent to $8,925 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange.

Global Economic Calendar (25-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 25th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Tumbles to Record Low Against Franc on Debt Concern; Dollar Advances

The euro slumped to a record low against the Swiss franc amid deepening concern Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will worsen, damping the appeal of the region’s assets.

The dollar rose against all of its 16 most-traded peers as the euro slipped below $1.40 for the first time since March. Italy faced a possible credit-rating cut, and Spain’s ruling party was routed in local voting. Australia’s dollar was among the worst performers versus the greenback after a Chinese manufacturing gauge fell to a 10-month low.

“We’ve moved a notch above looking at Portugal, Greece and Ireland and are evaluating prospects for what are the relatively stronger nations of Spain and Italy,” said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut. “What’s making the market uncomfortable today is that there is very little growth in the periphery to boost a fiscal solution for any of these nations.”

The euro weakened 0.2 percent to 1.2403 francs at 1:20 p.m. in New York, after earlier reaching 1.2324, the weakest level since its 1999 debut. The European currency fell 0.8 percent to $1.4045 after reaching $1.3970, the least since March 17. It dropped 0.8 percent to 114.82 yen, from 115.69 yen on May 20. The dollar gained 0.1 percent to 81.81 yen, from 81.70.

Europe’s shared currency declined 0.6 percent over the past week, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes, which track 10 developed-nation currencies. The greenback gained 0.3 percent. The franc, perceived as refuge currency, is up 0.5 percent.

Global Economic Calendar (24-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 24th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Drops to Lowest Level in Seven Weeks Against Dollar Amid Greek Crisis

The euro dropped to a seven-week low versus the dollar as Greece moved closer to defaulting on its obligations, bolstering concern the region’s sovereign-debt crisis is worsening.

The yen reached its strongest level versus the euro since the Group of Seven nations intervened in March to curb its gains after a record earthquake. Greece’s debt rating was cut by Fitch Ratings. Spanish voters may defeat Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s Socialists, who have cut spending to fight the debt crisis, in regional elections Sunday, polls show.

“The European debt markets are particularly unsettled at this point, and any unsettling headlines certainly have the potential to hurt the euro,” said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. “Policy makers do appear to be fairly resistant to any kind of change in the terms or conditions surrounding Greek debt. It’s negative for the euro.”

Europe’s shared currency fell 1 percent yesterday to $1.4161 and touched $1.4048 on May 16, the lowest since March 29. On the week, it gained 0.3 percent, from $1.4119 on May 13. The euro slid to 113.42 yen on May 16, the lowest level since March 18. It rose 1.4 percent over the past five days to 115.69 yen in its first weekly advance this month. The dollar strengthened 1.1 percent to 81.70 yen, from 80.80 on May 13.

Currencies of commodity-exporting countries including South Africa and Brazil rose as the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials increased 0.9 percent.

Australia’s Exporters Predict Currency Will Peak at $1.16, Survey Shows

Australia’s small exporters predict the currency will peak at $1.16 by September, 25 cents above the level that most believe makes them uncompetitive, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said, citing a survey.

Forty-eight percent of exporters plan to hedge their currency exposure over the next three months, according to the survey of 600 businesses with sales of A$5 million ($5.3 million) to A$500 million a year. Importers are less optimistic about the so-called Aussie, predicting it will top out at $1.14 by year-end, the poll taken for Commonwealth Bank’s currency barometer found.

“The Aussie Dollar Barometer reveals that small and medium sized enterprises expect the Australian dollar to remain well above parity with the U.S. dollar this year and into 2012,” Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank, Australia’s largest lender, wrote in a report. “SMEs also expect the Australian dollar to reach new post-float records.”

Australia’s dollar traded at $1.0668 as of 10:01 a.m. in Sydney, having strengthened 31 percent over the past year. The currency climbed to $1.1012 on May 2, the highest since it was freely floated in 1983.

The rise in the Aussie is prompting 80 percent of exporters to consider changing their selling prices, Capurso wrote.

Australia’s currency will trade at $1.06 in the second quarter before weakening to $1.03 by Dec. 31 and $1.01 by the end of 2012, according to a Bloomberg survey of 36 analysts.

Commonwealth Bank’s currency barometer is updated every three months based on a survey by market research firm East & Partners. The current survey was conducted from 2 May to 6 May.

Global Economic Calendar (23-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 23rd May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Yen Declines Versus Most Peers as Japan Enters Third Recession; Euro Gains

The yen dropped versus most major counterparts as Japan, its economy hobbled by the record March 11 earthquake, slid into its third recession in a decade and Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he expects the central bank to maintain a flexible monetary policy.

The euro touched the highest level in a week against the dollar and currencies of commodity exporters gained as investors sought higher-yielding assets, sending stocks up. The franc fell against the European currency as Swiss Economy Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann said authorities will consider “appropriate” measures if it continues to strengthen.

“The earthquake is obviously going to have a huge effect on the growth and unemployment and GDP, and we see further yen weakness against the euro specifically,” said Brian Taylor, chief currency trader a Manufacturers & Traders Trust in Buffalo, New York. “The equity markets are pushing the euro up. The risk currencies are back in play.”

The yen dropped 0.4 percent to 116.88 per euro at 2:02 p.m. in New York, from 116.37 yesterday, declining for a fourth consecutive day. It reached 117.24, the weakest level since May 6. Japan’s currency was little changed versus the dollar at 81.69, compared with 81.68 yesterday. It touched 82.23, its weakest level since April 28.

The dollar fell 0.5 percent versus the euro to $1.4316 and touched $1.4325, the weakest since May 13.

The MSCI World Index advanced for a second day, gaining 0.4 percent. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.3 percent.

Global Economic Calendar (20-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 20th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Singapore Raises 2011 Growth Forecast

Singapore raised its growth forecast for 2011 after the island’s economy expanded the most in Southeast Asia last quarter, sustaining pressure on the central bank to allow the currency to appreciate.

Gross domestic product will increase 5 percent to 7 percent this year, from an earlier forecast of 4 percent to 6 percent, the trade ministry said today. The economy expanded 22.5 percent in the three months through March from the previous quarter, compared with a preliminary estimate of 23.5 percent.

Singapore’s expansion has fueled a surge in the cost of living that helped propel opposition parties to a record share of the vote in this month’s election. The report spurred a third straight day of gains in the local dollar, bringing the advance against its U.S. counterpart to 13 percent over the past year as policy makers use currency appreciation to temper inflation.

“Domestic and external demand remains strong and we’ll probably continue to see more gains in the Singapore dollar this year,” said Kit Wei Zheng, a Singapore-based economist at Citigroup Inc. “Consumer price inflation may have peaked but pressures in the pipeline will remain elevated.”

The Monetary Authority of Singapore said last month it would allow further gains in the currency in the third tightening of monetary policy in a year. Global central banks are raising interest rates, removing excess cash from their financial systems or allowing their currencies to appreciate as rising oil and commodity prices fuel inflation.

Dollar Falls Versus Most Peers on Stocks Before FOMC Minutes; Pound Drops

The dollar dropped against most of its major counterparts as stocks and commodities advanced before minutes of the last meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee are released.

Sterling was the worst performer among major currencies as minutes of the Bank of England’s May 5 meeting showed most policy makers said higher interest rates might hinder recovery. South Africa’s rand was the best performer. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said today the bank may tighten policy this year. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said after the last meeting he was unsure when stimulus would unwind.

“We’re looking for a new trigger,” said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. “We’re waiting for the FOMC minutes. We have all these hawkish comments from regional Fed presidents and they weren’t reflected in the statement, and maybe the minutes will shed more light on just how vocal the hawks were at the meeting.”

The dollar fell 0.1 percent to $1.4250 per euro at 1:31 p.m. in New York, from $1.4237 yesterday. It earlier weakened 0.4 percent and gained 0.3 percent. The yen was little changed against the dollar at 81.47 after gaining earlier as much as 0.6 percent. It touched 81.77 yesterday, the weakest since April 28. The Japanese currency fell 0.2 percent against the euro to 116.10 yen.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of stocks, which slid to its lowest level in almost four weeks yesterday, advanced 0.6 percent as risk appetite improved. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of raw materials climbed 2.4 percent.

Global Economic Calendar (19-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 19th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Yen Tumbles Versus Dollar as Bank of Japan Says Economy in ‘Severe’ State

The yen dropped the most in almost three weeks versus the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the economy is in a “very severe” state, fueling bets monetary policy may be eased further.

The Japanese currency weakened against most of its 16 major counterparts. The pound rose from almost a one-month low versus the dollar as U.K. inflation accelerated to the highest level since 2008, increasing pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. The New Zealand dollar fell versus the greenback as stocks and commodities declined.

“It’s clear that the economy is facing a lot of issues on the supply side, which will weigh on growth and lead to weakening in exports,” Aroop Chatterjee, a currency strategist at Barclays Plc in New York, said of Japan. “On the monetary policy side, it’s unclear what steps will be taken in the short term to jump-start the economy.”

The yen weakened 0.7 percent to 81.37 per dollar at 11:46 a.m. in New York, from 80.79 yesterday. It fell as much as 1.2 percent, the biggest intraday decline since April 27. The Japanese currency depreciated 0.6 percent to 115.03 per euro, from 114.37 yen. The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.4135, compared with $1.4156 yesterday.

The pound rose as much as 0.7 percent to $1.6304 after touching $1.6147 on May 13, the lowest since April 5. It later traded little changed at $1.6198. Sterling was 0.2 percent stronger at 87.28 pence per euro. Britain’s legal tender bought 131.82 yen, 0.8 percent more than yesterday.

Global Economic Calendar (18-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 18th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Gains Versus Dollar as Stocks, Commodities Pare Losses; Franc Rises

The euro rose versus the dollar as stocks and commodities pared losses and inflation in the 17- nation currency bloc gained to the fastest since 2008, boosting pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates.

The Swiss franc rose against most major currencies as investors sought safety as finance ministers at a meeting in Brussels struggled to resolve the euro region’s debt crisis. New Zealand’s dollar was among the worst performers against its U.S. counterpart.

“Traders in the New York session are deciding euro- weakness is overdone,” said Camilla Sutton, head of currency strategy at Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto. “The euro-zone inflation is supportive of further ECB interest rate hikes.”

Europe’s shared currency rose 0.5 percent to $1.4194 at 1:04 p.m. in New York, from $1.4119 on May 13. It earlier dropped to $1.4048, the weakest level since March 29. The euro gained 0.5 percent to 114.61 yen, from 114.06. The U.S. currency was little changed at 80.76 yen.

The franc appreciated 0.6 percent against the euro to 1.2532, and climbed 1.1 percent to 88.29 centimes per dollar. It earlier depreciated 0.3 percent to 89.51 centimes, the weakest since April 20.

The euro dropped 0.7 percent over the past month in a measure of the currencies of 10 developed nations, the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes, as yields for the region’s most-indebted nations jumped amid heightened concern they may struggle to repay their debt. The yen gained 4.3 percent, while the dollar appreciated 1 percent.

Global Economic Calendar (17-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 17th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Drops to Six-Week Low Versus Dollar Before Ministers Meet on Greece

The euro fell against all but two of its 16 most-traded counterparts, reaching a six-week low against the dollar, on concern Greece may have to restructure its debt and the nation’s problems may spread in the region.

The 17-nation currency weakened before European finance ministers meet next week to discuss further support for Greece as the nation’s cost of borrowing hovers at almost record levels. The dollar gained versus most peers this week as stocks and commodities fluctuated. South Africa’s rand was the worst performer among major currencies, dropping the most in 18 months against the dollar as unemployment jumped.

“The overall prevailing theme is the European debt market mood, and the euro has been caught up in that this week,” said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. “There’s been a role reversal in the context of recent events; the short-term inclination of the markets, instead of being to sell the dollar, is to sell the euro.”

The euro dropped 1.4 percent to $1.4118, from $1.4316 on May 6, in its second weekly loss versus the greenback. It touched $1.4067 yesterday, the lowest level since April 1. The shared currency fell 1.2 percent to 114.06 yen and touched 113.52, the strongest level since March 18, when Group of Seven central banks sold yen in the currency markets to stem its surge after an earthquake and tsunami.

The dollar rose 0.2 percent to 80.79 yen, from 80.63.

Global Economic Calendar (16-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 16th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Canadian Dollar Declines for a Second Straight Day as Commodities Decline

Canada’s dollar fell for a second straight day as commodities declined after the International Energy Agency cut its 2011 global fuel demand forecast and on speculation China will take further action to contain inflation.

The loonie, as Canada’s currency in known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, also fell against the yen and euro as crude oil, the nation’s biggest export, dropped. The Canadian dollar remained lower after the government’s new home price index was unchanged in March after four previous gains.

“Given how high commodities are getting, there was some concern about the impact it would have on global growth,” said Matt Perrier, director of foreign-exchange sales at Bank of Montreal’s BMO Capital Markets unit. “The run-up in prices was well overdone. It’s healthy that we see some correction.”

The loonie depreciated 0.5 percent to 96.62 cents versus the greenback at 8:41 a.m. in Toronto, from 96.19 cents yesterday. One Canadian dollar buys $1.0350. The currency touched 94.46 cents on April 29, the strongest level since November 2007.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials fell for a second day and crude oil futures dropped 2.8 percent to $95.43 a barrel. Futures in New York advanced to $114.83 a barrel on May 2, their highest level since September 2008. Raw materials including crude oil account for about half of Canada’s export revenue.

The Canadian dollar declined 0.4 percent to 83.97 yen and slid for the first time in six days against the euro, depreciating 0.3 percent to C$1.3682.

Yen, Dollar Gain as Commodities Drop Spurs Unwinding of Higher-Yield Bets

The yen and dollar strengthened against most major currencies as falling commodities prompted investors to unwind bets on higher-yielding assets.

Australia’s dollar was among the worst performers versus the greenback as China raised banks’ reserve requirements to restrain prices, adding to the likelihood its growth will slow, and Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials fell for a second day. The Dollar Index climbed to the highest in three weeks as U.S. retail sales and producer prices rose in April.

“The rising yen is a function of a risk-off move; from the end of April the carry trade wound up, and now is selling off,” said Jessica Hoversen, an analyst in New York at the futures broker MF Global Holdings Ltd. “The commodity currencies will trade weak today. We need to see some stability in the external environment before individuals feel comfortable taking on risk again.”

The dollar gained 0.3 percent versus the euro to $1.4153 at 8:57 a.m. in New York, from $1.4192 yesterday. The yen rose 0.1 percent to 80.97 per dollar. Against the euro, the Japanese currency appreciated 0.4 percent to 114.64 yen, after reaching 114.19, the strongest since March 28.

Norway’s krone rose versus most major peers, trading little changed versus the dollar at 5.5196, as the nation’s central bank raised interest rates.

Global investors have tempered their optimism about the U.S. and world economies and plan to put more of their money in cash and less in commodities over the next six months, a Bloomberg survey found. Thirty percent of those questioned intend to reduce investments in commodities, according to a quarterly poll of 1,263 investors, analysts and traders.

Global Economic Calendar (13-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 13th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Deutsche Bank Sees Gold Surging as High as $2,000 as Soros Pares His Bets

Gold, which reached a record on May 2, may surge a further 30 percent by January as investors seek to protect themselves from “economic uncertainty,” according to Deutsche Bank AG.

“I’m bullish on gold despite its current levels,” Hal Lehr, Deutsche Bank’s managing director for cross-commodity trading, said in an interview in Buenos Aires. “It could reach $2,000 an ounce in the next eight months.”

Investors including George Soros and John Paulson invested in gold as the metal surged over the past year amid a sovereign debt crisis in Europe, economic turmoil in the U.S. and civil unrest in the Middle East. This month‘s record $1,577.57 an ounce was a sixfold gain since the precious metal’s low in August 1999.

Gold fell 1.6 percent on May 4 after the Wall Street Journal reported that Soros Fund Management LLC sold precious- metal assets. Soros’ fund held shares in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product backed by gold, and the iShares Gold Trust at the end of 2010, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings show.

Gold rose for a third day in New York today as concern about Europe’s debt woes spurred demand for precious metals as a protection of wealth. Standard & Poor’s yesterday downgraded Greece’s credit rating for the fourth time since April 2010. Gold for June delivery rose $13.10, or 0.9 percent, to $1,516.3 an ounce at 11:05 a.m. on the Comex in New York.

Global Economic Calendar (11-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 11th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Erases Advance Versus Dollar After S&P Lowers Greece’s Credit Rating

The euro erased its gain versus the dollar and fell below $1.43 for the first time in more than two weeks as Standard & Poor’s reduction in Greece’s credit rating renewed concern the region’s debt crisis is worsening.

The 17-nation currency rose earlier as a report showed exports in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, jumped in March, bolstering the case for higher interest rates in the euro region. The pound depreciated after the Confederation of British Industry lowered its economic growth predictions and a report showed house prices unexpectedly fell.

“The S&P downgrade is just rubbing salt in a wound and confirmed everyone’s suspicions that Greece is essentially in a quasi default state,” said Boris Schlossberg, director of research at the online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “You are still seeing some relatively good data out of the euro zone, so we are living in a bifurcated world.”

The euro decreased 0.2 percent to $1.4290 at 10:13 a.m. in New York, compared with $1.4316 on May 6, after touching $1.4273, the lowest level since April 19. The currency earlier rose 0.9 percent to $1.4442. The euro traded at 115.33 yen, compared with 115.44, after earlier rising 0.9 percent to 116.48. The dollar fetched 80.71 yen, compared with 80.63.

Futures traders increased their bets that the euro will gain against the U.S. dollar as of May 3, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Net longs increased to 99,516 last week, the most since 2007, compared with 68,279 a week earlier.

Global Economic Calendar (10-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 10th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Australia’s Budget Will Produce ‘Substantial’ Savings, Treasurer Swan Says

Australia’s budget will make “substantial” savings after revenue was crimped by a record exchange rate, the nation’s costliest natural disasters and Japan’s earthquake, Treasurer Wayne Swan said.

Swan, who delivers the budget to Parliament tomorrow, said yesterday the deficit in the government’s finances will widen in the fiscal year ending June 30 before increased mining revenue and an improving economy help bring about a surplus in 2012-13.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s administration has revealed the budget will tighten welfare payments to get people back into the workforce and cut 1,000 jobs in the civilian defense industry in the next three years. The government also aims to stop high-income earners receiving a subsidy for having private health insurance.

“This budget is tough and it will keep spending tight, give incentives to companies to create more jobs,” Craig James, senior economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, said in a phone interview yesterday. “There won’t be much in it for people, although treasurers have a habit of pulling rabbits out of hats.”

The government, which steered Australia through the global financial crisis, is trying to emphasize its economic management skills as its popularity declines over plans to impose a tax on mining companies’ profits and charge polluters in order to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.

Global Economic Calendar (09-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 9th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Euro Slides as Trichet Signals Rate Rise Won’t Come in June; Yen Climbs

The euro dropped the most against the dollar in two weeks and slid versus the yen after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled the ECB may wait until after June to raise interest rates again.

Japan’s currency climbed versus all of its 16 most-traded peers and reached the strongest level in six weeks against the dollar as falling commodities and stocks prompted investors to unwind bets in higher-yielding assets financed with yen. Currencies of commodity exporters including Australia, Norway, Canada and Brazil plunged.

“Mr. Trichet’s comments were not as hawkish as some people had anticipated,” said John McCarthy, director of currency trading at ING Groep NV in New York. “We’ve seen the euro come off against everything.”

Europe’s shared currency dropped 1.6 percent to $1.4588 at 11:14 a.m. in New York. It was the biggest intraday decline since April 18. The euro touched a 17-month high yesterday. It slid 1.8 percent to 117.39 yen, while the Japanese currency surged 0.8 percent to 79.93 per dollar.

The ECB left its main refinancing rate unchanged after boosting it a quarter-percentage point in April to 1.25 percent. Trichet, at a news conference in Helsinki, refrained from using the phrase “strong vigilance,” which might have signaled a June rate increase.

Trichet said inflation risks will be watched “very closely.” While inflation accelerated to 2.8 percent last month and economic growth is gaining momentum, higher borrowing costs may exacerbate Europe’s debt crisis, which has already forced Greece, Ireland and Portugal to ask for external help.

Aussie Weakens for Fourth Day After Retail Sales Drop; N.Z. Dollar Gains

Australia’s dollar fell for a fourth day after a government report showed retail sales unexpectedly dropped in March, fueling speculation the Reserve Bank will delay raising interest rates.

The so-called Aussie extended its losing streak versus the U.S. currency to the longest in seven weeks as today’s data led some analysts to cut their forecasts for first-quarter growth. New Zealand’s currency rose from near a two-week low versus the greenback after a report showed employers added more jobs last quarter than economists forecast.

“These data continue to point to the RBA remaining on hold,” said David Forrester, a currency economist at Barclays Capital in Singapore. “At the moment the market is a little worried about a slowing in global growth so that’s weighing a bit on the Aussie.”

Australia’s dollar fell to $1.0715 as of 4:30 p.m. in Sydney from $1.0748 in New York yesterday, when it dropped 0.9 percent. The currency slid 0.3 percent to 86.35 yen. New Zealand’s dollar gained 0.4 percent to 79.31 U.S. cents after sliding to 78.66 yesterday, the weakest since April 19. It was little changed at 63.65 yen.

Retail sales in Australia declined 0.5 percent in March from the previous month, the Bureau of Statistics said today in Sydney. Economists predicted a 0.5 percent gain, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

Traders lowered to 48 percent the probability the RBA will boost its benchmark rate to 5 percent by August, compared with a 54 percent chance yesterday, interbank futures show.

Global Economic Calendar (06-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 6th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Trade Share (AUD/USD 05-May-2011)

"Trade Share" is sharing on one of my trades once in awhile.

This trade was opened yesterday, 4th May 2011.

The stamina of the raging bull on the AUD/USD was running out, probably the bull would want to take a breather. Was looking at the daily of the AUD/USD and on the 3rd May 2011, there was a confirmation on price action.

Trade ticket was opened in the morning of 4th May 2011 at 7:08am (Singapore Time), price of 1.08492. Stop Loss was put at 1.0880 and price targeted at 1.0710. Why 1.0710? That is the price around the area of 23.6% Fibo on Daily chart and S3 of 4th May 2011 Pivot level.

Yesterday, the price actions may seemed not in favour during the first half of the day and quite strong data coming in the evening but price action failed to create a higher high. Hence, I stayed on with the plan.

Upon data release last night, it went my way, really went my way and was looking if it could touch my Target Profit at 1.0710 but it didn't, instead it bounces off at around 1.0735 region. Was deciding really hard on whether to close the trade or not but price action doesn't give me any reason to close it early. Let the trade run through the night.

Woke up this morning, it is still going my way. Push my Stop Loss to Protective Stop, just in case price go haywire, at least some money is in the pocket, I also pushed my Target Profit lower to 1.0685, near to today's S1 Pivot Level.

Satisfied with my decision, left my house and life goes on. Around 2+pm (Singapore Time), checked the trade, it was very healthy. Checked again at 5:45pm and BAM!!! My open position was GONE!!! That means, 164.2pips in the bag, Target Profit was hit at 5:38pm (Singapore Time). Woooohooooo!!! :) Worth all the dime, holding it for two days :)

Euro Gains to Highest Versus Dollar Since December 2009 Before ECB Meets

The euro rose against the dollar, reaching its highest level since December 2009 on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will signal further rate increases after policy makers meet tomorrow.

The greenback pared an advance against the yen as U.S. companies added fewer jobs than forecast, encouraging the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs low. The euro rose versus most of its major counterparts as European services and manufacturing growth accelerated. New Zealand’s dollar dropped to a two-week low on the biggest net outflow of residents in more than 10 years.

“The ECB has nailed its anti-inflation colors firmly to the mast, and the Fed hasn’t even got around to starting yet,” said Steven Barrow, a currency strategist at Standard Bank Plc in London. “This euro rally won’t extend too far if the ECB isn’t as hawkish as the market expects.”

The euro rose 0.5 percent to $1.4901 at 8:37 a.m. in New York, from $1.4825 yesterday. It touched $1.4915, the highest level since December 2009. The shared currency gained 0.6 percent to 120.69 versus the yen, from 119.99. The dollar advanced less than 0.1 percent to 81 yen, from 80.94.

The Swiss franc strengthened to a record 85.94 centimes per dollar before trading at 86.02 centimes.

The greenback fell against most of its major peers as ADP Employer Services data showed employment at U.S. companied increased by 179,000 jobs in April, from a revised 207,000 in March. The median estimated in a Bloomberg News survey called for a 198,000 advance this month.

Global Economic Calendar (05-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 5th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

‘Dumb Money’ Flees Muni Funds as U.S. Investors Snap Up Individual Bonds

John Hirsch, 57, has been buying municipal bonds during the past four months, taking advantage of falling prices as muni mutual funds are forced to sell them to cover withdrawals.

“I have no interest in trading bonds,” said Hirsch, a consultant to the medical industry in Clermont, Florida. “I’m going to hold until maturity, and at maturity I’ll get the face value back.”

Investors withdrew about $40.4 billion from U.S. municipal- bond mutual funds in the five months through March, according to Morningstar Inc. (MORN), a Chicago-based research firm. Retail investors purchased about $3 billion more in individual municipal bonds in the first quarter this year than in the same period last year, according to data on trades of $100,000 or less from the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board, which regulates muni dealers.

Surging investor withdrawals force mutual-fund managers to sell in a falling market. Investment-grade muni bond prices have dropped 4.6 percent in the six months through April, as measured by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index.

“The people who are redeeming are the dumb money, because they’re redeeming into a market where prices are down,” said Alexandra Lebenthal, chief executive officer of New York-based Lebenthal & Co., which manages about $170 million in municipal- bond separately managed accounts. Her firm has received about $30 million in new money since December.

American households own $1.1 trillion of municipal debt, or about 37 percent of the market, and represent the largest holders, according to U.S. Federal Reserve data.

Yen Strengthens to Highest in Five Weeks as Stocks Decline; Dollar Gains

The yen and dollar rose against most major counterparts as stocks fell and concern that Osama bin Laden’s death will prompt reprisal attacks boosted demand for the relative safety of the Japanese and U.S. currencies.

The yen reached its strongest in more than a month versus the dollar as Asia’s benchmark stock index slid to its biggest loss in three weeks. The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell as lower commodity prices damped demand for the nations’ assets. Canada’s currency strengthened as Prime Minister Stephen Harper won a return to office with a majority government. The pound dropped as an index of U.K. manufacturing growth declined.

“It looks like a broad reduction in risk appetite,” said Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange in London.

The yen rose 0.8 percent to 119.49 per euro at 8:37 a.m. in New York. The greenback gained 0.2 percent versus the European common currency to $1.4795 per euro. Japan’s currency gained 0.6 percent to 80.77 per dollar after appreciating to 80.71, the strongest since March 23.

Financial markets in Japan are shut today for a holiday.

Japan’s currency advanced as the Stoxx Europe 600 slipped by 0.7 percent and U.S. equity futures declined. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index of shares dropped 1.4 percent.

The yen typically strengthens in times of political, financial and economic turmoil. Japan’s trade surplus makes the currency attractive because it means the nation doesn’t have to rely on overseas lenders. The dollar benefits as the world’s main reserve currency.

Global Economic Calendar (04-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 4th May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Yen Weakens, Dollar Gains After Official Says Bin Laden Is Dead

The yen and the Swiss franc weakened as equities climbed after President Barack Obama said al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed by U.S. operatives, damping demand for the safest assets.

The U.S. Dollar Index snapped a nine-day decline and Canada’s dollar slid after Brent crude oil dropped the most in almost seven weeks following reports of bin Laden’s death. The euro strengthened versus the U.S. currency and the krona appreciated after reports showed manufacturing in the euro region and Sweden is picking up.

“This is risk-on plus the effect of the oil price,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. That’s “pushing yen a little bit weaker and the same effect for the Swiss franc. Data has been pretty strong across the board.”

The yen depreciated 0.5 percent to 120.85 per euro as of 7:48 a.m. in New York and slid 0.3 percent to 81.46 per U.S. dollar. The euro advanced 0.2 percent to $1.4841 and climbed 0.4 percent to 1.2858 against the Swiss franc.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares added 0.7 percent, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2 percent and futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.6 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose.

The franc weakened versus a majority of its most-traded peers and the yen snapped two-day gains versus the euro and the dollar after President Obama said bin Laden was killed by a team of U.S. operatives after a firefight at a house in Pakistan.

Global Economic Calendar (03-May-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 3rd May 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)