Australia’s Exporters Predict Currency Will Peak at $1.16, Survey Shows

Australia’s small exporters predict the currency will peak at $1.16 by September, 25 cents above the level that most believe makes them uncompetitive, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said, citing a survey.

Forty-eight percent of exporters plan to hedge their currency exposure over the next three months, according to the survey of 600 businesses with sales of A$5 million ($5.3 million) to A$500 million a year. Importers are less optimistic about the so-called Aussie, predicting it will top out at $1.14 by year-end, the poll taken for Commonwealth Bank’s currency barometer found.

“The Aussie Dollar Barometer reveals that small and medium sized enterprises expect the Australian dollar to remain well above parity with the U.S. dollar this year and into 2012,” Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank, Australia’s largest lender, wrote in a report. “SMEs also expect the Australian dollar to reach new post-float records.”

Australia’s dollar traded at $1.0668 as of 10:01 a.m. in Sydney, having strengthened 31 percent over the past year. The currency climbed to $1.1012 on May 2, the highest since it was freely floated in 1983.

The rise in the Aussie is prompting 80 percent of exporters to consider changing their selling prices, Capurso wrote.

Australia’s currency will trade at $1.06 in the second quarter before weakening to $1.03 by Dec. 31 and $1.01 by the end of 2012, according to a Bloomberg survey of 36 analysts.

Commonwealth Bank’s currency barometer is updated every three months based on a survey by market research firm East & Partners. The current survey was conducted from 2 May to 6 May.