My GBP/JPY Trade (31-10-2007)

*Attached chart. Click on it for the enlarge version.

Hi guys. How is everyone doing? Couple of hours left till the USD's Interest Rate Announcement :P Hehehe! It is 12:40am (Singapore Time) now and I am damn sleepy but I can't sleep :P Hahaha!!!

Anyway, today. I didn't trade the Majors because of the confusion of market due to the extreme weakening of the USD, I was looking at crosses today and it is my favourite tiger, the GBP/JPY.

Did three trades on this bugger. The first one was at 12:40pm (Singapore Time), I went in to short it at the price line of 237.40. But at the end of the 1:00pm candle, a strong rejection was formed so I manually closed it at 237.36 and that is 4pips gain.

During the 2:00pm (Singapore Time) candle, another strong rejection and I went in a long position at the price line of 237.45. The blooper on this trade was that, my target profit is at 239.60 which is my resistance level in my Daily chart but because I was in a hurry (to go toilet), I did a typo and my target profit was at 237.60 instead.

So I rush to the toilet and meet Louey and had a good pee pee and when I came back, I found out that I had no open position, I checked my account and the trade was closed at 237.60 (my typo target profit error) with 15pips gain! ARGGGGGHHH! Dammit! One of the times that I was actually mad with my little Johnny. Hahaha!

So I waited for awhile and the price broke through my resistance at 237.70 (which was my target profit based on my previous analysis), then I placed a pending order to buy at the price line of 237.80. I was filled in like seconds at 3:55pm (Singapore Time) :P Hahahaha!!!

Now, the trade is still open and my target profit at 239.60 and stop loss has already been shifted to my entry price. Let's see how it goes. Price now is like inches away from my target profit.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Global Events Calendar [29-10-2007] - [02-11-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

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Global Events Calendar [29-10-2007] - [02-11-2007]
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Monday [29-10-2007]
7:50am-----------JPY Retail Sales y/y
7:50am-----------JPY Large Retailers' Sales y/y
5:30pm-----------GBP Mortgage Approvals
5:30pm-----------GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
[Time Unknown]---EUR German CPI m/m (p)

Tuesday [30-10-2007]
1:15am---USD Alan Greenspan Speaks
7:30am---JPY Overall Household Spending y/y
7:30am---JPY Unemployment Rate
4:55pm---EUR German Unemployment Rate
5:00pm---CHF Consumption Indicator
9:00pm---USD National Home Price Index
10:00pm--USD Consumer Confidence

Wednesday [31-10-2007]
7:30am-----------JPY Manufacturing PMI
9:30am-----------JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y
[Time Unknown]---JPY Interest Rate Announcement
1:00pm-----------JPY Housing Starts y/y
2:00pm-----------EUR German Retail Sales m/m
[Time Unknown]---JPY BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks
3:00pm-----------GBP Nationwide House Prices m/m
5:00pm-----------EUR Consumer Confidence
6:00pm-----------EUR CPI y/y (p)
6:00pm-----------EUR Unemployment Rate
6:00pm-----------EUR Italian CPI m/m
6:30pm-----------GBP Consumer Confidence
6:30pm-----------CHF Leading Index m/m
8:15pm-----------USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
8:30pm-----------USD GDP Annualized q/q (p)
8:30pm-----------USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q (p)
8:30pm-----------USD ECI q/q
9:45pm-----------USD Chicago PMI
10:00pm----------USD Construction Spending m/m
10:30pm----------USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [01-11-2007]
2:15am---USD Interest Rate Statement
4:30pm---CHF SVME PMI
5:40pm---GBP Manufacturing PMI
7:00pm---GBP CBI Distributive Trades Realized
8:30pm---USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
8:30pm---USD Personal Spending m/m
8:30pm---USD Personal Income m/m
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm--USD ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00pm--USD ISM Manufacturing Prices

Friday [02-11-2007]
[Time Unknown]---USD Domestic Vehicle Sales
7:50am-----------JPY Monetary Base y/y
2:45pm-----------CHF CPI m/m
4:55pm-----------EUR German Manufacturing PMI
5:00pm-----------EUR Manufacturing PMI (r)
5:30pm-----------GBP Construction PMI
8:30pm-----------USD Nonfarm Employment Change
8:30pm-----------USD Unemployment Rate
8:30pm-----------USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
10:00pm----------USD Factory Orders m/m

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My GBP/JPY Trade (25-10-2007) - Update 3

Hello guys. This is the final update on my GBP/JPY trade. I have just manually closed the trade with 50pips profit at the price line of 234.04 and nice interest gain.

GBP seems to weaken further against the EUR and it cannot break above my 200ma in the hourly chart and it is able to break below my support at around 234.10-234.07. Should have initiated the trade with EUR/JPY instead and it really went my way with the same style of analysis. Hehehehe...

Anyways, I will still try to tame this active tiger, the GBP/JPY and hopefully I will be able to share it with your guys in time to come :) Next week, I am expecting to see weird movements on the majors. Let's see how it goes :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Trade wth extra care for the moment...

Hello everyone :)

At this point, please trade with extra care, especially on the EUR/USD. Market is testing last week's high and next week, [Thursday, 01-11-2007], at 2:15am (Singapore Time), is the USD's Interest Rate Statement. It is not clear whether the FED's will go for a rate cut and people are fighting on it.

If this week's candle end as a hanging man, it is possible that last week's high is toppish but if it is able to break it, 1.4535 is the next top side to look out for.

On top of that, next week is also the frst Friday of the month, the release of the Non-Farm Payroll data and a couple more of other data releases. This week is possible that market is doing some built in to anticipate USD's Interest Rate Statement which is next week.

JPY's Interest Rate Statement is also next week, [Wednesday, (31-10-2007)], most likely that their rate will go unchange at 0.50%.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My GBP/JPY Trade (25-10-2007) - Update 2

*Attached chart. Click on it for the enlarged version.

Hello hello again :) Today, [26-10-2007], let's see how is my trade on the GBP/JPY is doing.

After the previous two post on this GBP/JPY trade of mine, [My GBP/JPY Trade (25-10-2007] and [My GBP/JPY Trade [25-10-2007] - Update 1], I am expecting this pair to have an upclose in the daily chart.

Anyway, back to the hourly chart. I have drawn some more lines which is coloured in dark blue. The final uptrend line is still the same as the original Line 5 in orange. Yesterday, it managed to break above my first resistance level at around 234.10. Now, it has to break another resistance level around 234.90-235.00 or the 200ma.

If market is unable to break above this resistance level by today, there is two possibilty that I will do. 1) I will manually close my trade or 2) Adjust my Stop Loss to my entry price.

If market is able to break above, I will shift my Stop Loss to entry price.

Currently, this trade is 90pips in the money.

Do not follow this trade or take it as a trading idea. It is merely for educational and public viewing purposes.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My GBP/JPY Trade (25-10-2007) - Update 1

*Attached chart. Click on it for the enlarged version.

Hello people. From my previous post on the my GBP/JPY Trade (25-10-2007). The forecast Line 5 that I drew, today, market had a little set-back with strong resistance at around the price line of 234.10.

According to the chart that I've attached to this post, the original Line 5 in orange is still there but I have extended it with another forecast lines in light blue and the final forecast line in blue having the same parameters with the original forecast Line 5.

I am still keeping this trade open. To recap a little bit on this trade, I initiated this trade at the price line of 233.54, Stop Loss at 232.50 and Target Profit at 237.70.

This trade that I am doing, no doubt I am using my live account but it is only for testing purposes on a method I have just thought of. Do not follow it or take it as a trading idea. It is merely for educational and public viewing purposes.

I will still update on the outcome of this trade. Be it if I get stopped out, my traget profit was hit or I close it manually :) Let's find it out together :) Currently, this trade is 40pips in the money.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My GBP/JPY Trade (25-10-2007)

*Attached chart. Click on it for the enlarged version.

Hello everyone! How is everyone doing? This week has been one interesting week :P Hehehe!!! Anyway, this is one of my many many trades this week. Yesterday, I was happily whacking the EUR/JPY, squeezing as many pips out of the market :P Hahaha!

This particular trade of mine is very very rare. One of few times that I will actually touch the GBP/JPY. I have just initiated a long position on the GBP/JPY at 12:00am (Singapore Time), the stroke of mid-night and hence a new date [25-10-2007], at the price line of 233.54.

Why did I initiate a long position? This is a good question. Attached chart to this post. According to my chart, I am actually testing something. Something that I called a similar wave pattern.

From the channel that I have drawn, first line up which I call Line 1, followed by Line 2 which is coming down after hitting the resistance of the channel, little Line 3 going up, followed by Line 4 going down touching the support of the channel. Not only Line 4 touch the support of the channel, the last candle formed into a doji with a reasonable rejection tail. So Line 5 which I assume will be similar to Line 1, I drew it to expect the possible target profit.

Hence, initiated long position at the price line of 233.54 with Target Profit at 237.70 and Stop Loss at 232.50.

This is a method that I am testing out which I want to share with you guys but please do not follow or take it as a trade idea, this is merely for education and entertainment viewing purposes. It might work and it might not work but let's find out together :) I will definitely update on the outcome of it.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

EUR/USD (Follow through after drop) 22-10-2007

*Attached chart. Click on it for the enlarged version.

Hello people. EUR/USD has finally did what I was expecting it to do like two weeks ago. Hahahaha!!! A lot of people are expecting EUR/USD to strengthen further after the G7, but hey, USD strengthens for EUR/USD retracement :P Hehehe! See? Technicals wins against the Fundamentals again :P Hahaha...

Anyway, EUR/USD had a follow through on the downside after it broke below the 1.4300 level, which I had highlighted like a few hours ago. Let's see how it will go from here.

Peaces and trade safely everyone...

EUR/USD (Drop back below 1.4300) 22-10-2007

*Attached chart. Click on it for the enlarged version.

Hello people. Now it is 6:00pm (Singapore Time). EUR/USD has dropped back below the 1.4300 level. Is it having its retracement now? This week, do watch out on the Majors. It will be a crucial and interesting week to see :)

EUR/USD - Watch out for support at 1.4240...

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Global Events Calendar [22-10-2007] - [26-10-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00).

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Global Events Calendar [22-10-2007] - [26-10-2007]
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [22-10-2007]
8:15pm---USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks

Tuesday [23-10-2007]
7:00am---USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
8:45am---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
2:45pm---EUR French Consumer Spending m/m
4:00pm---EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m
5:00pm---EUR Industrial New Orders m/m
6:00pm---GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders
8:30pm---USD Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks
10:00pm--USD Richmond Fed Index

Wednesday [24-10-2007]
7:50am---JPY Trade Balance
4:00pm---EUR Manufacturing PMI (p)
4:00pm---EUR Services PMI (p)
4:00pm---EUR Current Account
10:00pm--USD Existing Home Sales
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [25-10-2007]
12:00am--EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
7:50am---JPY CSPI y/y
2:00pm---EUR German Import Price Index m/m
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Expectations Index
4:30pm---GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals
8:30pm---USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30pm---USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
9:00pm---USD Fed Consumer Advisory Council Meets
10:00pm--USD New Home Sales

Friday [26-10-2007]
7:30am---JPY Core CPI y/y
7:30am---JPY Core Tokyo CPI y/y
7:50am---JPY Industrial Production m/m (p)
2:00pm---EUR German Consumer Confidence
3:15pm---CHF PPI m/m
4:00pm---EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
10:00pm--USD Consumer Sentiment (r)

[After Friday's Mid-night]
4:15am---USD Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks

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EUR/USD (Testing yesterday's High)

*Attached chart. Click on it for the enlarged version.

Hello people. EUR/USD is getting a little interesting. After the bear flag that has been spotted, now market is testing yesterday's high, which is at 1.4225. If market is unable to break above this price, I am still in the seller's side for this pair.

If market is able to punch through yesterday's high, the next ceiling that is good to look at will be at the price line of 1.4240, which is the recent Double-Top in the hourly chart for this pair :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

EUR/USD (Bear Flag Spotted?)

*Attached chart. Click on it for the enlarged version.

Hello everyone. Something in the EUR/USD hourly charts that seems a little interesting. After the Double-Top formation being seen, now it looks like a Bear Flag is spotted. Is EUR/USD really in the top side and make some way for the down side for retracement? Let's find it out together :)

Global Events Calendar [15-10-2007] - [19-10-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00).

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Global Events Calendar [15-10-2007] - [19-10-2007]
------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [15-10-2007]
7:01am---GBP Rightmove House Price Index m/m
8:30am---JPY BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks
12:30pm--JPY Industrial Production m/m (r)
8:30pm---USD Empire State Business Conditions Index

Tuesday [16-10-2007]
7:00am---USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
2:00pm---EUR German CPI m/m (r)
3:15pm---CHF Retail Sales y/y
4:30pm---GBP CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP RPI y/y
5:00pm---EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00pm---EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00pm---EUR CPI m/m (r)
9:00pm---USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
9:15pm---USD Industrial Production m/m
9:15pm---USD Capacity Utilization Rate
11:00pm--USD Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks

Wednesday [17-10-2007]
1:00am---USD NAHB Housing Market Index
7:50am---JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m
1:00pm---JPY Leading Index m/m
4:30pm---GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
4:30pm---GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus q/y
4:30pm---GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30pm---GBP Unemployment Rate
8:30pm---USD CPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Core CPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Housing Starts
8:30pm---USD Building Permits
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [18-10-2007]
2:00am---USD Beige Book
8:45am---USD Kansas City Fed President Hoenig Speaks
2:15pm---CHF Trade Balance
4:30pm---GBP Retail Sales m/m
4:30pm---GBP M4 Money Supply m/m
4:30pm---GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
5:00pm---CHF ZEW Expectations
5:00pm---EUR Trade Balance
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm--USD Leading Index m/m

Friday [19-10-2007]
12:00am USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
5:00am---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
7:50am---JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m
2:00pm---EUR German PPI m/m
4:30pm---GBP GDP q/q (p)
4:30pm---GBP Index of Services 3m/3m
5:00pm---EUR Italian Trade Balance
10:00pm--USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

[After Friday's Mid-night]
[Time Unknown]---ALL G8 Press Conference

------------------------------------------------------------------

Selamat Hari Raya Aidilfitri!

To all muslim traders and loyal readers of ForexNewspaper.blogspot.com,

ForexNewspaper.blogspot.com will like to wish all muslims around the world and its fellow readers a Selamat Hari Raya Aidilfitri :)

Warmest Regards,
ForexNewspaper.blogspot.com

Future Upgrades on ForexNewspaper.blogspot.com

Greetings fellow traders and loyal readers of ForexNewspaper.blogspot.com,

In time to come, ForexNewspaper.blogspot.com is looking at future upgrades on its blog posts, other than general market outlook, Global Economic Calendar and posting of some of my trades. One of the upgrades that I am looking at is to provide ForexNewspaper.blogspot.com's very own weekly analysis on the Forex market.

The weekly updates that I will be doing is for general educational and sharing purposes. Do not take it as trading tips or ideas. Do bear in mind that there is significant risks in Forex market.

Not only that ForexNewspaper.blogspot.com will do weekly market analysis, it is planning to do it in video form. You heard it right, it will be in video form. I will either use YouTube as a medium or other video hosting websites that are available, like Veoh.com :) Whichever service that I will use, will be decided on the factors that will benefit the both of us, ForexNewspaper.blogspot.com and its fellow readers.

Lastly, to end this post, ForexNewspaper.blogspot.com will introduce a friend of mine, his name is Frankenstein. He will be the one that is in the video, doing weekly market analysis and the analysis will be called, "Franky Forex Outlook". :)

Do stay tune on the progress of the future upgrades that ForexNewspaper.blogspot.com is looking at.

Warmest Regards,
Author of ForexNewspaper.blogspot.com

My EUR/JPY Trade (09-10-2007)

*Click on the chart for the enlarged version.

Hello people. One of my recent trades. This one is on the EUR/JPY.

Yesterday, I went in long on this pair at around 10:50pm :) So what I saw was that, 9:00pm (Singapore Time) candle finished with a down close hammer formation and it can't break below the 200ma in my hourly chart. Initiated the long position at the price line of 164.60. Stop Loss at 164.30 and Target Profit at 165.50. At around 2:00am (Singapore Time) I was already in the money and I shifted my stop loss to my entry price.

This afternoon (10-10-2007), I manually close my trade at the price line of 165.34 at around 12:30pm (Singapore Time). That is a 74pips profit for this trade.

My EUR/USD Trade [01-10-2007]

Hello people,

On the [01-10-2007], I inititated a short position on the EUR/USD at 2:24pm (Singapore Time). This pair looks kind of resting based on the charts and I was expecting a little retracement or technical correction after how it ran on the upside last week.

Nonetheless, I was wanting to see some sellers commitment in the market first before initiating the short position. Initially, after initiating the short position at the price line of 1.4254, my stop loss was at 1.4274 and target profit at 1.4190.

As time goes by, I see more sellers commitment and I decided to change my target profit level to 1.4120. I reached home around 9:00pm (Singapore Time) that day and I was prepared to see the USD's ISM Manufacturing data release at 10:00pm (Singapore Time) to decide on whether to close my trade or not. At around 9:55pm (Singapore Time), I had decided to keep my trade open and shift my stop loss to my entry price but, hehehehe, not actually at my entry price, it is 1pip away, which is at 1.4253 :P Hahaha! I will tell you why. I am a little greedy boy, even if market were to stop me out, this trade is still considered a winning trade with 1pip profit :P Hahahaha!!!

Anyway, at 10:00pm (Singapore Time), I was watching the market and it was a dissappointing wait, not much action happened and it was good news to me, market didn't want to go up. The whole of [02-10-2007], was just looking at it and there is no signs that is showing that buyers commiment are coming back in. So, I was confident enough to keep my trade open till today [03-10-2007].

Woke up at 4:50am (Singapore Time), thanx to my mum. Woke up, ate some food before fasting starts and at 5:15am (Singapore Time), watched my charts, a little air headed and I decide to close my trade manually at 5:20am (Singapore Time), at the price line of 1.4156. That is a 98pips profit for this week as of now :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Global Events Calendar [01-10-2007] - [05-10-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00).

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Global Events Calendar [01-10-2007] - [05-10-2007]
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Monday [01-10-2007]
7:50am---JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
7:50am---JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index
9:30am---JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y
3:30pm---CHF SVME PMI
3:35pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
3:55pm---EUR German Manufacturing PMI
4:00pm---EUR Manufacturing PMI
4:30pm---GBP Manufacturing PMI
4:30pm---GBP Mortgage Approvals
4:30pm---GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q
4:30pm---GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
10:00pm--USD ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00pm--USD ISM Manufacturing Prices

Tuesday [02-10-2007]
7:50am---JPY Monetary Base y/y
1:45pm---CHF CPI m/m
4:30pm---GBP Construction PMI
5:00pm---EUR PPI m/m
5:00pm---EUR Unemployment Rate
10:00pm--USD Pending Home Sales m/m

Wednesday [03-10-2007]
[Time Unknown]---USD Domestic Vehicle Sales
7:01am-----------GBP Consumer Confidence Index
3:55pm-----------EUR German Services PMI
4:00pm-----------EUR Services PMI (r)
4:30pm-----------GBP Services PMI
5:00pm-----------EUR Retail Sales m/m
5:30pm-----------GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y
8:15pm-----------USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
10:00pm----------USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
10:00pm----------USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
10:30pm----------USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [04-10-2007]
7:00pm---GBP Interest Rate Statement
7:45pm---EUR Interest Rate Announcement
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
8:30pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
10:00pm--USD Factory Orders m/m

Friday [05-10-2007]
1:30am---USD Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks
1:00pm---JPY Leading Index m/m
6:00pm---EUR Composite Leading Indicators m/m
8:30pm---USD Nonfarm Employment Change
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Rate
8:30pm---USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
9:10pm---USD Fed Governor Kohn Speaks

[After Friday's Mid-night]
3:00am---USD Consumer Credit m/m
7:00am---USD Fed Governor Warsh Speaks

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My GBP/USD Trade (21-09-2007) Update.

Hello people. This is the update of my previous open long position on the GBP/USD.

To recap from the previous post-(http://forexnewspaper.blogspot.com/2007/09/my-gbpusd-trade-21-09-2007.html), I went in for a long position at the price line of 2.0109 on [20-09-2007], 12:45am (Singapore Time) and target profit at the price line of 2.0235. My target profit has just been hit today, [24-09-2007] at 9:10am.

That's a 126pips profit :) Not a bad morning to wake up with a bad crap shooting syndrome, aka diarrhoea.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Global Events Calendar [24-09-2007] - [28-09-2007]

*Time is with repect to Singapore Time(GMT+8:00).

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Global Events Calendar [24-09-2007] - [28-09-2007]
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [24-09-2007]
[Whole Day Event]---JPY Holiday: Autumnal Equinox Day
7:01am--------------GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
4:30pm--------------GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
5:00pm--------------EUR Industrial New Orders m/m
9:30pm--------------USD Fed Governors Meet

Tuesday [25-09-2007]
12:30am--GBP MPC Member Sentance Speaks
1:00am---USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
7:50am---JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
7:50am---JPY CSPI y/y
2:00pm---EUR German Import Price Index m/m
2:45pm---EUR French Consumer Spending m/m
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Expectations Index
4:00pm---EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m
4:00pm---CHF Consumption Indicator
4:30pm---GBP Business Investment q/q (r)
5:00pm---EUR Italian Trade Balance
9:00pm---USD National Home Price Index
10:00pm--USD Existing Home Sales
10:00pm--USD Consumer Confidence
10:00pm--USD Richmond Fed Index

Wednesday [26-09-2007]
7:50am---JPY Trade Balance
2:00pm---EUR German Consumer Confidence
4:30pm---GBP GDP q/q (r)
4:30pm---GBP Current Account
5:30pm---CHF Leading Index m/m
8:30pm---USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30pm---USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30pm---USD St. Louis Fed President Poole Speaks
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories
11:10pm--EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

Thursday [27-09-2007]
2:00pm---GBP Nationwide House Prices m/m
3:55pm---EUR German Unemployment Rate
4:00pm---EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
4:30pm---GBP Index of Services 3m/3m
6:00pm---GBP CBI Distributive Trades Realized
8:30pm---USD GDP Annualized q/q (r)
8:30pm---USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q (r)
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm--USD New Home Sales

Friday [28-09-2007]
1:00am---USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
7:00am---USD Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks
7:30am---JPY Core CPI y/y
7:30am---JPY Tokyo CPI y/y
7:30am---JPY Core Tokyo CPI y/y
7:30am---JPY Overall Household Spending y/y
7:30am---JPY Manufacturing PMI
7:30am---JPY Unemployment Rate
7:50am---JPY Industrial Production m/m (p)
7:50am---JPY Retail Sales y/y
7:50am---JPY Large Retailers' Sales y/y
1:00pm---JPY Housing Starts y/y
2:00pm---EUR German Retail Sales m/m
5:00pm---EUR Italian CPI m/m
5:00pm---EUR CPI y/y (p)
5:00pm---EUR Consumer Confidence
5:30pm---GBP Consumer Confidence
8:30pm---USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
8:30pm---USD Personal Spending m/m
8:30pm---USD Personal Income m/m
9:45pm---USD Chicago PMI
10:00pm--USD Consumer Sentiment (r)
10:00pm--USD Construction Spending m/m

[After Friday's Mid-night]
1:00am---USD St. Louis Fed President Poole Speaks
1:15am---USD Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks

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My GBP/USD Trade (21-09-2007)

*Attached chart, click on it for the enlarged version.

Hi guys. Today, I didn't initiate any trade because I am still holding on to my GBP/USD trade which I initiated from the night before.

Last night, (20-09-2007), I initiated a long position on the GBP/USD at 12:45am (Singapore Time). GBP has more strength against the USD compared to EUR. If I were to buy, I will prefer to buy on GBP/USD compared to EUR/USD.

So, I was waiting for the right moment to enter the market after it ran towards the 200ma in my hourly chart. It had two downclose and I initiated my long position when the second downclose candle touches the 6ma in my hourly chart at the price line of 2.0109. This is a little bit of an aggresive trade.

My stop loss is at 2.0065 (at parabolics) and my target profit that I am looking is at 2.0235 (Near to the high of 14-09-2007). My long position is still open and I am keeping it to see if it can reach my target profit. As of now at 1:55am (Singapore Time), 22-09-2007, the current price is at 2.0190. I am already 81pips in the money.

I will post the outcome of this trade in time to come when I decide to close it or if it reaches my TP and my "OCO" is triggered :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

EUR climbing towards 1.4100 against USD.

Hello everybody.

The USD extended its loss against its major rivals today on speculations that the Fed may continue to lower fed fund rates in the rest of the year. The EUR touched just below 1.4100 against the USD, while the JPY strengthened to as low as 114.00 against the USD.

The USD index fell to an all-time low at 75.73 yesterday. Interest-rate futures pricing indicated traders see an 80% chance that the Fed may cut a quarter-percentage point to 4.50% on its policy meeting at the end of October.

In the early session, US unemployment claims fell 9k to 311k, beating the estimate of 321k. Philadelphia Fed business conditions index dropped from 0.4% to minus 0.6% in August, below the estimate of minus 0.2%.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke today said in a congressional hearing that subprime mortgage delinquencies are likely to rise further, and the Fed is committed to prevent lending problems. He added the market tends to self-correct over time and subprime mortgage market has adjusting sharply. US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the Fed’s move help stabilize market credit crunch.

The USD extended its loss after London’s Daily Telegraph newspaper cited that Saudi Arabia did not lower its interest rates in line with the Fed, though King Abdullah’s advisor said the country will not unpeg its currency from the USD in the near future.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/JPY Trade (20-09-2007)

*Attached chart, click on it for the enlarged version.

Hello people. USD is really getting whacked upside, downside, sideways and all over the sides :P Hahaha!!! EUR/USD broke through the 1.4000 price line.

Anyway, today, I was looking at the USD/JPY. What attracted me to this particular pair was that I saw the Double-Top being formed and it is slowly crumbling right after. I was looking for any reason to initiate a trade on the downside.

Upon approaching 1:00pm(Singapore Time), market died for awhile and 1:00pm candle broke down. 2:00pm(Singapore Time) was my confirmation but I was still hesitant. I then initiated a short position on this pair at 3:20pm(Singapore Time), price line of 115.47. My stop loss at 115.75, target profit at 114.80(Near to the 200ma in my Hourly chart and 10ma in Daily chart).

My target profit was triggered at 10:25pm(Singapore Time). 67pips profit for this trade.

Peace and trade safely everyone :)

Dollar Recovery from Fed's Rate Cut. (20-09-2007)

Hi guys! Something to share with, for reading purposes :)

The dollar today pared its loss from the Fed’s aggressive rate cut as investors believe the rate cut will help the US economy. The currency fell sharply yesterday after the Feds slashed USD's interest rates by 0.50% yesterday.

US equities gained further today with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 76.17 to 13,815.56 and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 9.25 to 1529.03 at 4:15 pm. The rally in stock market stimulates carry trades modestly. The yen weakened to above the 116 level against the dollar.

The euro failed to extend beyond the record high at 1.3687 set on as traders sold the euros to protect option bets at 1.40 against the dollar. The pair consolidates in range between 1.3940 and 1.3987.

Earlier in the US session, a bunch of inflation and housing reports came out weaker than expected, supporting the rate cut yesterday. US CPI declined 0.1% in August, below the estimate of an unchanged reading. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 0.1%, less than the estimate of 0.2%. US housing starts dropped 2.6% to an annual rate of 1.33 million units in August, while building permits fell 5.9% to 1.307 million units.

Later tonight, 8:30pm (Singapore Time) we will see USD unemployment claims, 10:00pm (Singapore Time) Uncle Bernanke is speaking and at 12:00am (Singapore Time) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

The sterling was still under pressure from the liquidity problem in UK banking system due to subprime issue. After Northern Rock was bailed out last week, the Bank of England announced today to allow commercial banks to use mortgages as collateral to borrow via three-month repos. The sterling fell off the high at 2.0172 set Tuesday to the key level at 2 versus the dollar.

EURUSD will face interim resistance at 1.40, followed by 1.4020 and 1.4050. Additional ceilings will emerge at 1.4080, backed by 1.41. Support starts at 1.3950, backed by 1.3930, 1.39 and 1.3880. Subsequent floors are eyed at 1.3850.

USDJPY encounters interim resistance at 116.30, backed by 116.50 and 116.80. Subsequent ceilings will emerge at 117, followed by 117.30 and 117.50. On the downside, support begins at 116 and 115.70, followed by 115.50. Additional floors are eyed at 115.30, backed by 115 and 114.70.

GBPUSD encounters interim resistance at 2.0030, backed by 2.0070 and 2.01. Subsequent ceilings will emerge at 2.0140, followed by 2.0170 and 2.02. On the downside, support begins at 2, followed by 1.9980 and 1.9950. Additional floors are eyed at 1.9930, backed by 1.99 and 1.9870.

My GBP/USD Trade (19-09-2007)

*Attached chart, click on it for the enlarge version.

Greetings people. Today, I was kind of forcing myself to be patient with the market :P It seriously started off slow today and I have to trade with a clear mind after my trade last night on the EUR/USD :P Hahaha!!!

Anyway, today, I was analysing the EUR and the GBP and I saw that the GBP was weaker compared to the EUR. At 3:00pm (Singapore Time), the candle was forming into a big downclose candle, a big bearish engulfing! I initiate a scalping short position on the GBP/USD at the price line of 2.0101 at 3:40pm (Singapore Time). Target profit at 2.0060 (23ma at the point of time) and stop loss at 2.0121. Risk reward ratio of around 1:2.

My target profit was triggered at 4:40pm (Singapore Time) with a profit of 41pips for this trade while I was at Singapore Post Office :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My EUR/USD Trade (19-09-2007)

*Attached chart, click on it for the enlarge version.

Hello people. My biggest trade today. You may call it a crazy trade as well. I was planning not to initiate any trade before the Fed's announcement on USD's Interest Rate Statement at 2:15am (Singapore Time).

But let me tell you the story, I can't sleep due to my stupid flu and my blocked nose. Irritating the crap out of me. So I was looking at the charts and I saw something really beautiful and I just can't help it.

EUR is definately having some strength against the USD and at the end of 11:00pm (Singapore Time), it formed into a doji. Taking into consideration that at 8:00pm (Singapore Time), it jumped a little followed by tiny down close at 9:00pm (Singapore Time) and 10:00pm (Singapore Time).

I just couldn't help it but initiate a long position at the price line of 1.3870 at the beginning of the 12:00am (Singapore Time) candle. I am not trading the news but the signal was just so beautiful and from 12:00am (Singapore Time), I was looking at the charts like a hawk till my nose became unblocked due to my heart rate pumping so fast :P Hahahaha!!!

Since the first immediate resistance level is at 1.3920, I put my target profit at 1.3970 (It is my next immediate resistance level based on my own analysis) and stop loss at 1.3855. I was looking at it very closely and here comes 2:15am (Singapore Time). I tell you, watching the market move was like looking at fireworks. I was so excited that I almost forgot that I had an open position. My apologies to those trader friends that I was continuosly message and bugging them while the market moved :P Hahaha!!!

Anyway, to cut my long story short, my target profit was triggered with 100pips profit and that is US$1000 based on 10mini lots. Just a word of caution, this kind of trade is not good for the faint hearted :P Before I end, the FED's actually took a rate cut till 4.75% from their previous interest rate of 5.25%. Thank you market for showing me an early signal to enter :P Hahaha! Wooohoooo!!!

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My EUR/JPY Trade (18-09-2007)

*Attached chart, click on it for the enlarge version.

Hi guys. One of my trades today, this one is on the crosses, the EUR/JPY. Initiated this trade at 2:50pm (Singapore Time). I saw that there was a good support at the price line of 158.79 and the candle bounce after it touches that price line. So I went in for a range trade.

I initiated a long position at the price line of 159.09. Stop loss at 158.80 and target profit at 159.60. My target profit was hit at around 4:35pm (Singapore Time). That's a 51pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Global Events Calendar [17-09-2007] - [21-09-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

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Global Events Calendar [17-09-2007] - [21-09-2007]
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [17-09-2007]
[Whole Day Event]---JPY Holiday: Respect-for-the-Aged Day
7:00am--------------USD Alan Greenspan Speaks
12:00pm-------------USD Alan Greenspan Speaks
2:50pm--------------USD Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks
5:00pm--------------EUR Trade Balance
8:30pm--------------USD Empire State Business Conditions Index
11:00pm-------------CHF SNB Chairman Roth Speaks

Tuesday [18-09-2007]
12:45am--USD Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks
7:50am---JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m
9:00am---USD Alan Greenspan Speaks
3:15pm---CHF Industrial Production q/q
4:30pm---GBP CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP RPI y/y
5:00pm---EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00pm---EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
8:30pm---USD PPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Core PPI m/m
9:00pm---USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions

Wednesday [19-09-2007]
[Time Unknown]---JPY Interest Rate Announcement
[Time Unknown]---JPY BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks
1:00am-----------USD NAHB Housing Market Index
2:15am-----------USD Interest Rate Statement
2:00pm-----------EUR German PPI m/m
3:15pm-----------CHF Retail Sales y/y
4:30pm-----------GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
8:30pm-----------USD CPI m/m
8:30pm-----------USD Core CPI m/m
8:30pm-----------USD Housing Starts
8:30pm-----------USD Building Permits
10:30pm----------USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [20-09-2007]
7:50am---JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions q/q
1:30pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
2:15pm---CHF Trade Balance
3:00pm---JPY BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks
3:15pm---CHF PPI m/m
4:00pm---EUR Italian Unemployment Rate
4:30pm---GBP Retail Sales m/m
4:30pm---GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
4:30pm---GBP M4 Money Supply m/m
4:30pm---GBP BSA Mortgage Approvals
5:00pm---CHF ZEW Expectations
6:00pm---GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm--USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
10:00pm--USD Leading Index m/m

Friday [21-09-2007]
12:00am--USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
7:50am---JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m
4:00pm---EUR Current Account
4:00pm---EUR Manufacturing PMI (p)
4:00pm---EUR Services PMI (p)
5:00pm---USD Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks
8:00pm---USD Fed Governor Kohn Speaks
11:00pm--EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
11:00pm--CHF SNB Chairman Roth Speaks

[After Friday's Mid-night]
1:00am---USD Fed Governor Warsh Speaks

----------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR ECON: Italian July IP -0.4%m/m vs. Revised -0.6% In June

Italian SA industrial production recorded another fall in July by 0.4% m/m against market expectations of a rise by 0.3%. Annually it declined by 0.5%. The dip follows already very poor data published for June with production falling by 0.6% m/m (revised) and 0.1% y/y.

ISTAT reported a fall in intermediate and energy goods by 1.5% and 0.5% respectively which drove the fall in industrial production. As expected consumer goods were up 0.5% in July after dipping in June by 1.8%. Note that there were 22 working days in July 2007 against 21 the same month last year.

FX OPTIONS: More High Strike EUR/USD Barrier Options

A few more high strike EUR/USD barriers were put on in London and New York market Thursday. These include 27 August 1.4600 One Touch, which traded 41.5 vs TV 46.75 on a EUR 5mln Payout. Closer in - a 15 Nov 1.4300 One touch traded 34.75 vs TV 37.5 on EUR 4mln payout. 1.4000 remains a massive barrier level - with more than EUR 20mln expiring late next week alone, with plenty more to follow over next few months.

USD/JPY: Credit Squeeze Again Filters Through To the Yen Pairs

A swift 100-point drop in USD/JPY overnight as news of BoE emergency lending hit the screens. GBP/JPY tumbled from 234.80 highs to 231.10 with stops tripped all the way from 234.00 through 232.00.

The cross eventually based and a short squeeze through late Asia provided Europe with better selling levels. This move for the cross was mirrored by the spot market with USD/JPY peaking at 115.50 and basing at 114.50.

Japanese investment accounts have again been busy on the buy side and were reportedly picking up good amounts of Dollars from 114.55-60. The Dollar has climbed back above 115.00 and is again looking to test the resolve of option related offers, which are reportedly mixed in with exporter and Asian speculative sellers.

A small knock back from 115.39 has been seen as London players get their chance to react to the Northern Rock news. The Market is looking like 114.50 to 115.50 with the 115.00 level likely to attract and pivot price ahead of the North American session.

My EUR/JPY Trade (13-09-2007).

*Click on the picture for the enlarge version.

Hi guys. Today, I was looking at the EUR/JPY. Actually, I was looking at all the four majors but I feel a little adventurous today, want to feel some crosses today.

At 4pm(Singapore Time), I initiated a long position at the price line of 159.26. Why did I want to buy? Because the 3pm(Singapore Time) candle broke out of the consolidation. So I went in to buy with target profit at 159.60(High of 31st August) and stop loss at 159.00(6ma in 15mins chart).

My target profit was hit at 5:19pm(Singapore Time) at a profit of 34pips :)

My EUR/USD Trade (12-09-2007)

*Click on the chart for the enlarge version.

Hi guys. Market has been a total jerk nowadays after the run from last week's USD Non-Farm Payroll.

Nonetheless, so far, I have only have made short trades this week. Didn't dare to keep a long one. Today, one of my short trades on the EUR/USD. Initiated the trade at 1:00pm (Singapore Time). What I saw was at 12:00pm (Singapore Time) candle formed into a mini bullish engulfing and plus sentiments that I saw from the last two days is that the EUR is execptionally strong against the USD, just refusing to go down and climbing up slowly.

I went in for a long position at the opening of the 1pm (Singapore Time) candle at the price line of 1.3846. My target profit was at 1.3870 and stop loss at 1.3836. My target profit was hit at 1:22pm (Singapore Time) with a profit of 24pips. That is US$240 based on 10 mini lots.

Global Events Calendar [10-09-2007] - [14-09-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

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Global Events Calendar [10-09-2007] - [14-09-2007]
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [10-09-2007]
7:50am---JPY GDP q/q (r)
7:50am---JPY GDP Deflator y/y (r)
7:50am---JPY M2+CD Money Supply y/y
1:00pm---JPY Eco Watchers Survey
2:45pm---EUR French Industrial Production m/m
4:30pm---GBP PPI Input m/m
4:30pm---GBP PPI Output m/m
8:30pm---USD Atlanta Fed President Lockhart Speaks

Tuesday [11-09-2007]
3:00am---USD Consumer Credit m/m
7:30am---USD Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks
7:50am---JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m
2:00pm---EUR German WPI m/m
2:45pm---EUR French Trade Balance
4:30pm---GBP Trade Balance
8:30pm---USD Trade Balance
9:00pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
10:30pm--GBP Leading Index m/m
11:00pm--USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Wednesday [12-09-2007]
7:50am---JPY Current Account
7:50am---JPY CGPI y/y
1:00pm---JPY Household Confidence
4:30pm---GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus q/y
4:30pm---GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30pm---GBP Unemployment Rate
5:00pm---EUR Labor Cost Index q/q
5:00pm---EUR Industrial Production m/m
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [13-09-2007]
7:01am---GBP RICS House Price Balance
2:45pm---EUR French Nonfarm Employment q/q (r)
2:45pm---EUR French CPI m/m
8:00pm---CHF Interest Rate Statement
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims

Friday [14-09-2007]
12:30pm--JPY Industrial Production m/m (r)
2:00pm---EUR German CPI m/m (r)
4:00pm---EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m
5:00pm---EUR CPI m/m (r)
8:30pm---USD Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Current Account
8:30pm---USD Import Price Index m/m
9:15pm---USD Industrial Production m/m
9:15pm---USD Capacity Utilization Rate
10:00pm--USD Consumer Sentiment (p)
10:00pm--USD Business Inventories m/m

----------------------------------------------------------------------

A good trader's heart.

*Click on the picture for a bigger version

I met him through Momentum Asia. He is one of my fellow Momentum Traders graduates and I am honoured to have met him in my life :)

Global Events Calendar [03-09-2007] - [07-09-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapoe Time (GMT+8:00)

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Global Events Calendar [03-09-2007] - [07-09-2007]
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [03-09-2007]
[Whole Day Event]---USD Holiday: Labor Day
7:50am--------------JPY Capital Spending q/q
9:30am--------------JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y
3:30pm--------------CHF SVME PMI
3:55pm--------------EUR German Manufacturing PMI
4:00pm--------------EUR Manufacturing PMI (r)
4:30pm--------------GBP Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday [04-09-2007]
7:01am---GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
7:50am---JPY Monetary Base y/y
1:45pm---CHF GDP q/q
4:00pm---EUR Italian Trade Balance
4:30pm---GBP Construction PMI
5:00pm---EUR PPI m/m
5:00pm---EUR GDP q/q (r)
10:00pm--USD ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00pm--USD ISM Manufacturing Prices
10:00pm--USD Construction Spending m/m

Wednesday [05-09-2007]
[Time Unknown]---USD Domestic Vehicle Sales
7:01am-----------GBP Consumer Confidence Index
3:55pm-----------EUR German Services PMI
4:00pm-----------EUR Services PMI (r)
4:30pm-----------GBP Services PMI
5:00pm-----------EUR Retail Sales m/m
5:30pm-----------GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y
8:15pm-----------USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
10:00pm----------USD Pending Home Sales m/m

Thursday [06-09-2007]
2:00am---USD Beige Book
1:45pm---CHF Unemployment Rate
2:00pm---JPY Machine Tool Orders y/y
4:30pm---GBP Industrial Production m/m
4:30pm---GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
6:00pm---EUR German Factory Orders m/m
7:00pm---GBP Interest Rate Statement
7:45pm---EUR Interest Rate Announcement
8:30pm---USD Nonfarm Productivity q/q (r)
8:30pm---USD Unit Labor Costs q/q (r)
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
8:30pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
10:00pm--USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
10:00pm--USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories
11:30pm--USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks

Friday [07-09-2007]
12:00am--USD St. Louis Fed President Poole Speaks
7:01am---GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
1:00pm---JPY Leading Index m/m
2:00pm---EUR German Trade Balance
2:45pm---EUR French Government Budget Balance
3:30pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
6:00pm---EUR German Industrial Production m/m
6:00pm---EUR Composite Leading Indicators m/m
8:30pm---USD Nonfarm Employment Change
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Rate
8:30pm---USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
10:00pm--USD Wholesale Inventories m/m

----------------------------------------------------------------------

My EUR/USD Trade (28-08-2007)

*Attached picture is my EUR/USD hourly chart. (Click for a bigger version)

Hello people :) Market started slow this week and it barely move when market opens on Monday due to GBP's Summer Banks Holiday. So Tuesday, I was expecting market to move and also my fingers are getting very itchy :P Hahahaha!!!

From my charts that I've attached to this post, you can see that I made two trades yesterday. The first one, I shorted the EUR/USD at the price line of 1.3631 at around 10:17am. I thought I might be able to be in the money by 4pm data release. I think there was leakage of news and market moved due to fundamentals before 4pm and stopped me out at my stop loss of 20pips. Was I sad? Nah! I was more excited to look at the market than be in tears over my bad trade :)

I continued on looking at the market, very closely this time round. I was expecting this jump in the EUR/USD to get exhausted because runnin of fundamentals cannot be sustained that long. The immediate resistance for yesterday was around 1.3680. During 6pm candle, I was looking at it moving and it cannot clear the price line of 1.3680.

I was very lucky yesterday because of one reason, I was waiting for my girlfriend to go out for dinner and guess what, she is stuck in a traffic jam! Whahahaha!!! That gave me a little bit more window to see the 7pm candle movement :P Hehehe! I looked at how the market was behaving at 7pm. I looked at it super duper closely. Then I decide to initiate a trade on the downside, I shorted EUR/USD at the price line of 1.3667. My stop loss at 1.3690 (23pips) and target profit at 1.3570 (97pips).

Some of you might be wondering why my target profit is at 1.3570, a profit of 97pips. 1.3570 is a little bit above the 10ma in the Daily charts and the opening on the (24-08-2007). I told my Big Daddy yesterday that if I am looking to short the EUR/USD, I will be looking at this price line for my target profit.

My girlfriend came at about 7:30pm, complaining about how bad the traffic jam was, due to a bus had broken down or something like that and bla bla, went for dinner and I got home at around 10pm. I opened my charts and I'm in the money. Considering at 2am there is a data release on the FOMC meeting minutes, I was watching the market like a hawk, I do not want another incident of my earlier trade to happen again. So I was watching and watching and there comes 1am, market looks calm and good and then comes 2am, market is still calm and good and then comes 3am, market is still calm and good and I decide to keep the trade running and went to sleep.

I woke up at today and BOOM! My target profit has been hit at 8:15am this morning at a profit of 97pips. So this week, my profit so far is 97pips - 20pips(My stopped out trade that I mentioned earlier) = 77pips. Not bad for the week :) 30pips more to reach my target for the week :)

Peace and trade safely everyone :)

Global Events Calendar [27-08-2007] - [31-08-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

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Global Events Calendar [27-08-2007] - [31-08-2007]
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [27-08-2007]
[Whole Day Event]---GBP Holiday: Summer Bank Holiday
9:00pm--------------EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
10:00pm-------------USD Existing Home Sales

Tuesday [28-08-2007]
7:50am-----------JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
4:00pm-----------CHF Consumption Indicator
4:00pm-----------EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
4:00pm-----------EUR German Ifo Business Expectations Index
4:00pm-----------EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
4:30pm-----------GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals
10:00pm----------USD Consumer Confidence
10:00pm----------USD Richmond Fed Index
[Time Unknown]---EUR German CPI m/m (p)

Wednesday [29-08-2007]
2:00am---USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
2:00pm---EUR German Consumer Confidence
5:30pm---CHF Leading Index m/m
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [30-08-2007]
7:50am---JPY Retail Sales y/y
7:50am---JPY Large Retailers' Sales y/y
2:00pm---GBP Nationwide House Prices m/m
3:55pm---EUR German Unemployment Rate
4:00pm---EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m
4:30pm---GBP Mortgage Approvals
4:30pm---GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
6:00pm---GBP CBI Distributive Trades Realized
8:30pm---USD GDP Annualized q/q (r)
8:30pm---USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q (r)
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm--USD House Price Index q/q

Friday [31-08-2007]
7:30am---JPY Core CPI y/y
7:30am---JPY Tokyo CPI y/y
7:30am---JPY Core Tokyo CPI y/y
7:30am---JPY Manufacturing PMI
7:30am---JPY Overall Household Spending y/y
7:30am---JPY Unemployment Rate
7:50am---JPY Industrial Production m/m (p)
1:00pm---JPY Housing Starts y/y
1:45pm---CHF CPI m/m
2:00pm---EUR German Retail Sales m/m
5:00pm---EUR CPI y/y (p)
5:00pm---EUR Unemployment Rate
5:00pm---EUR Italian CPI m/m
5:00pm---EUR Consumer Confidence
5:30pm---GBP Consumer Confidence
8:30pm---USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
8:30pm---USD Personal Spending m/m
8:30pm---USD Personal Income m/m
9:45pm---USD Chicago PMI
10:00pm--USD Factory Orders m/m
10:00pm--USD Consumer Sentiment (r)
10:00pm--USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

----------------------------------------------------------------------

My USD/JPY Trade (23-08-2007)

*Attached picture is the USD/JPY (Hourly Charts). Click on it for a bigger version.

Hello people. My trade today with the USD/JPY. I saw the momentum of this pair of currency is a little bullish but sort of moving slowly. I wasn't confident enough to open a long (buy) position but what I saw today was that, this pair has broke my resistance at 200ma in the hourly charts and it is just sitting down there.

Ok, I admit, I used a little bit of fundamentals to gain further confidence upon initiating this particular trade. Found out around noon time (SG Time) that BOJ's Fukui is going to speak at around 2:30pm (SG Time).

I initiated a long (buy) position at around 2:39pm (SG Time) at the price line of 115.86 with stop loss at 115.50 and my target profit at 117.00. I was watching the market very closely to see if there is any chance to show that it will not go my way. Suddenly, at 5pm (SG Time), it jumped and my target profit was hit at 117.00 at 6:16pm (SG Time). Profit of 114pips for today (23-08-2007).

Posting of my trades...

Hello fellow readers of ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com. I will be starting to post most of my trades here in my blog :) The decision was made when one of my mentors in trading told me that I should be posting my trades here online to share with a broader audience base :) So, look out for most of my trades here :)

Global Events Calendar [20-08-2007] - [24-08-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

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Global Events Calendar [20-08-2007] - [24-08-2007]
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [20-08-2007]
7:01am---GBP Rightmove House Price Index m/m
3:15pm---CHF PPI m/m
4:30pm---GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
4:30pm---GBP M4 Money Supply m/m
10:00pm--USD Leading Index m/m

Tuesday [21-08-2007]
7:50am---JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m
5:00pm---EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00pm---EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00pm---EUR Trade Balance

Wednesday [22-08-2007]
7:50am---JPY Trade Balance
4:00pm---EUR Current Account
5:00pm---EUR Industrial New Orders m/m
6:00pm---GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [23-08-2007]
[Time Unknown]---JPY Interest Rate Announcement
[Time Unknown]---JPY BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks
2:00pm-----------EUR German GDP q/q (r)
2:15pm-----------CHF Trade Balance
3:15pm-----------CHF Employment Level
4:30pm-----------GBP Business Investment q/q (p)
5:00pm-----------CHF ZEW Expectations
8:30pm-----------USD Unemployment Claims

Friday [24-08-2007]
7:50am---JPY CSPI y/y
2:00pm---EUR German Import Price Index m/m
4:00pm---EUR Manufacturing PMI (p)
4:00pm---EUR Services PMI (p)
4:30pm---GBP GDP q/q (r)
4:30pm---GBP Index of Services 3m/3m
8:30pm---USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30pm---USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
10:00pm--USD New Home Sales

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Global Events Calendar [13-08-2007] - [17-08-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

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Global Events Calendar [13-08-2007] - [17-08-2007]
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [13-08-2007]
7:50am---JPY GDP q/q (p)
7:50am---JPY GDP Deflator y/y (p)
7:50am---JPY Current Account
2:00pm---EUR German WPI m/m
4:30pm---GBP PPI Input m/m
4:30pm---GBP PPI Output m/m
8:30pm---USD Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Business Inventories m/m
10:30pm--GBP Leading Index m/m

Tuesday [14-08-2007]
7:01am---GBP RICS House Price Balance
7:50am---JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m
2:00pm---EUR German GDP q/q (p)
2:40pm---EUR French GDP q/q (p)
2:45pm---EUR French CPI m/m
4:30pm---GBP CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP RPI y/y
5:00pm---EUR GDP q/q (p)
5:00pm---EUR Industrial Production m/m
8:30pm---USD PPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Core PPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Trade Balance

Wednesday [15-08-2007]
3:15pm---CHF Retail Sales y/y
4:30pm---GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
4:30pm---GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus q/y
4:30pm---GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30pm---GBP Unemployment Rate
8:30pm---USD CPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Core CPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Empire State Business Conditions Index
9:00pm---USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
9:15pm---USD Industrial Production m/m
9:15pm---USD Capacity Utilization Rate
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [16-08-2007]
1:00am---USD NAHB Housing Market Index
2:00pm---EUR German CPI m/m (r)
4:30pm---GBP Retail Sales m/m
5:00pm---EUR CPI y/y (r)
8:30pm---USD Housing Starts
8:30pm---USD Building Permits
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims

Friday [17-08-2007]
12:00am--USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
2:00pm---EUR German PPI m/m
2:45pm---EUR French Nonfarm Employment q/q (p)
9:00pm---USD St. Louis Fed President Poole Speaks
10:00pm--USD Consumer Sentiment (p)

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Global Events Calendar [30-07-2007] - [03-08-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time.

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Global Events Calendar [30-07-2007] - [03-08-2007]
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Before market opens on Monday [30-07-2007]
Sunday [29-07-2007]
[Whole Day Event]---JPY Upper House Elections

Monday [30-07-2007]
7:50am---JPY Industrial Production m/m (p)
4:30pm---GBP Mortgage Approvals
4:30pm---GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m

Tuesday [31-07-2007]
7:30am---JPY Overall Household Spending y/y
7:30am---JPY Manufacturing PMI
7:30am---JPY Unemployment Rate
9:30am---JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y
1:00pm---JPY Housing Starts y/y
2:00pm---EUR German Retail Sales m/m
3:55pm---EUR German Unemployment Rate
4:00pm---CHF Consumption Indicator
5:00pm---EUR CPI y/y (p)
5:00pm---EUR Unemployment Rate
5:00pm---EUR Consumer Confidence
5:00pm---EUR Italian CPI m/m
5:30pm---GBP Consumer Confidence
6:00pm---GBP CBI Distributive Trades Realized
6:00pm---GBP CBI Distributive Trades Expected
8:30pm---USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
8:30pm---USD Personal Spending m/m
8:30pm---USD Personal Income m/m
8:30pm---USD ECI q/q
9:45pm---USD Chicago PMI
10:00pm--USD Consumer Confidence
10:00pm--USD Construction Spending m/m

Wednesday [01-08-2007]
7:01am---GBP Consumer Confidence Index
3:55pm---EUR German Manufacturing PMI
4:00pm---EUR Manufacturing PMI (r)
4:30pm---GBP Manufacturing PMI
5:30pm---GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y
8:15pm---USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
10:00pm--USD ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00pm--USD ISM Manufacturing Prices
10:00pm--USD Pending Home Sales m/m
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [02-08-2007]
[Time Unknown]---USD Domestic Vehicle Sales
7:50am-----------JPY Monetary Base y/y
3:30pm-----------CHF SVME PMI
4:30pm-----------GBP Construction PMI
7:00pm-----------GBP Interest Rate Statement
7:45pm-----------EUR Interest Rate Statement
8:30pm-----------USD Unemployment Claims
8:30pm-----------EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
10:00pm----------USD Factory Orders m/m

Friday [03-08-2007]
1:45pm---CHF CPI m/m
3:55pm---EUR German Services PMI
4:00pm---EUR Services PMI (r)
4:30pm---GBP Services PMI
5:00pm---EUR Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Nonfarm Employment Change
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Rate
8:30pm---USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
10:00pm--USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
10:00pm--USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices

----------------------------------------------------------------------

USD/CHF: Finally Back Below 1.20 - EUR/CHF At Expiry Level

As the US Dollar weakens against the Euro the Franc is managing to elicit a further period of strength against the US unit. USD/CHF has finally filled the bids into the 1.20-mark and the overnight lows down at 1.1988 are now in sight.

The Franc strength is not linked to the latest Swiss data as the local ZEW index fell to -2.1 in July. The survey also showed most economists expected the Swiss franc to appreciate against the euro over the coming six months.

On the whole the data does underpin the view that the mountain economy is in a comfortable position. Over at IFR, they are suggesting that a duel SNB hike scenario remains the most likely outcome for the remainder of 2007. Two 25bp hikes should be looked for into H2 07 (one in Q3 in September and the other in Q4 in December) with an outside risk for a more aggressive 50bp move higher from Roth in Q3 should the CHF reversal of late fail to hold.

Against the Euro the Franc has weakened intraday and EUR/CHF has been bought up to the 1.6595/6600 level where option dealers note expiries at the NY cut (14:00 GMT). 1.6595 & 1.6600 strikes are both set to mature today but dealers do suggest that option related supply into the figure will be found in an attempt to cap further spot gains.

EUR/USD: Working Higher As EUR/JPY Triggers Stops

EUR/JPY managed to absorb the offers back from 168.40 to 168.50 and stops are tipped to have gone off amid the break higher. As a result, EUR/USD has also found a bout of strength as spot is now working higher once more to retest the all-time highs up at 1.3834 with talk of option related sales into 1.3840/50, linked to potential option structures at the price. EUR/JPY option barriers are seen into 169.00 and 170.00.

SWISS ECON: July ZEW Investor Sentiment -2.1 Vs -0.1 Pvs

Swiss ZEW investor sentiment dipped by 2 points in July to drop to -2.1 points from the previous -0.1 reading. Credit Suisse, who issues the indicator in cooperation with the German ZEW economic research institute, went on to indicate that current conditions also weakened from 95.7 in June to 93.6 in July.

Swiss Outlook (19th July 2007)

USD/CHF opened in NY near the day's 1.2050 high, but that breach of Monday and Tuesday's 1.2040 high proved futile, just as the overnight breach of Tuesday's 1.1977 low did. The new year-and-a-half low at 1.1962 was instigated by fresh US subprime concerns and rumors a US bank was in trouble. Traders squared up ahead of the US economic releases and Bernanke"s Hill appearance.

CPI was up 0.2% overall & core v +0.1% & +0.2% f/c. Housing Starts were up 2.3%, but single-family starts fell again, while Permits fell 7.5%. The 12.9% surge in multi-family housing starts may borrow from future single-family growth as buyers and builders lower their sights in the face of the housing slump and higher borrowing costs.

Fed Chair Bernanke kept inflation high on his talking list but the gist of his comments was that the housing issue remains a concern and that lenders would not be bailed out of their bad loans. Unsaid but understood is that the Fed may ease rates if the housing pullback undermines the economy. Philly Fed, Claims, LEI and more from Bernanke are Thursday's risks. Swiss Trade also due. Weak US stocks & Tsy yields are the main USD drag.

Sterling Outlook (19th July 2007)

The GBP/USD opened around 2.0540 after tracking higher during the US session when the market perceived Bernanke's testimony as being a bit more dovish than expected. The opening level at 2.0540 turned out to be the high for the Asian session as talk circulated that the 2.0550 option barrier was very large and was being defended by a large Asian player.

The GBP/USD eased a bit more after Anatole Kaletsky wrote in a UK Times article that despite the talk in the City, UK rates have probably peaked at 5.75%. The GBP/USD traded down to 2.0511 before decent buying emerged and it settled between 2.0515/30 for the balance of the session. The EUR/GBP opened at 0.6723 and pushed up to 0.6730 after the Kaletsky article before settling back around 0.6722/24.

Sentiment towards the GBP/USD remains bullish, but traders are a bit wary about taking on the option barrier at 2.0550 without fresh factors to do so. Daily techs are extremely overbought and warn that a period of corrective consolidation may be needed before the GBP/USD can move higher again. UK PSNB and Retail Sales are out later today.

Yen Outlook (19th July 2007)

USD/JPY and JPY crosses did little in Asia today following the whippy moves seen yesterday. USD weakness, a prominent theme yesterday, looks to have faded and the unit maintained a more bid tone. This served to keep USD/JPY stable just below 122.00 for the most part and some of the JPY crosses better offered. USD/JPY traded up from a low of 121.74 to 122.01 early.

It later traded for the most part between 121.90-00. Orders look to be returning and helping to anchor down this market. Offers topside remain to 122.40. Stops are seen above but more offers are noted at 122.50-60. More stops are seen above 122.60. Standing bids are seen below at 121.55-60 with some stops below. More bids are seen trailing down from 121.50 to 121.00 and lower.

EUR/JPY traded a relatively tight 168.12-44 range. It came down from its highs early on the back of EUR/USD sogginess. It bounced later, spending the rest of the session between 168.20-30. GBP/JPY consolidated recent gains above 250, between 250.15-40. AUD/JPY consolidated in a 106.85-107.05 range. NZD/JPY traded between 96.40-80, weighed down by Japan sales on bond redemptions.

Euro Outlook (19th July 2007)

The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.3805 and immediately spiked to 1.3815 on reports of an explosion in New York. The explosion turned out to be an accident and the EUR/USD slipped back to 1.3800 and proceeded to trade in a very narrow 1.3791/1.3805 range for the balance of the session.

There was talk of good buying interest at 1.3790 and 1.3770 while stops are eyed below 1.3750. Sellers are lined up between 1.3820/35 with stops above 1.3840. Trading was subdued in Asia today compared to yesterday with most of the action confined to the peripheral currencies.

Sentiment towards the EUR/USD remains bullish, but most traders say they would prefer buying dips towards 1.3755/70 where sovereign names are rumoured to be bidding. They feel that concerns about sub-prime and US housing in general have been built in the EUR/USD at the higher levels and these concerns have had a tendency to fade in recent weeks when there was no fresh news to keep them alive. There is little in the way of data out of the EZ later today and the US data includes Leading Indicators and Philly Fed.

GBP/USD: Stops Above 2.0375 Tripped, New 26-Year Peak Scaled

Tripped buy stops above 2.0375 have helped propel sterling to a fresh 26-year peak of 2.0389. Some option-related supply might emerge ahead of 2.0400, re: a touted exotic option barrier at the figure. Further option barriers are tipped at 2.0450, 2.0500 and 2.0550+.

USD/CHF: Back Testing 1.20, 1.1985 Still Key To Lower Levels

As the US Dollar weakens USD/CHF is back testing the 1.20 area but it is not until a clear break below the Friday low at 1.1985 is seen that further downside momentum will be garnered.

Spot has managed to work back from 1.2005 to 1.1995 as EUR/USD gapped up into the 1.3790's but until the Euro pair manages to break back into the 1.38's the Dollar will continue to teeter on the brink.

EUR/CHF is also looking to key support with the 1.6550 area propping the cross on dips lower.

EUR/USD: Gaps Above 1.3790 After EZ CPI Matches Expectations

EUR/USD has gapped higher to trade in the 1.3790's in the wake of the recent Euro Zone data. Into the publication and spot traded 1.3786/88 but the pair has since posted a fresh session and intraday high at 1.3794 as the data is digested. EZ final June CPI matched expectations to come in at +0.1% M/M & +1.9% on the year, however, some had looked for a slightly weaker report.

Offers in EUR/USD are still seen trailing back to the 1.3800 area with the new all-time highs up at 1.3815 noted above before the option barriers seen into 1.3830 and 1.3850.

Sterling Outlook (16th July 2007)

The GBP/USD opened around 2.0340 after topping out between 2.0360/70 for the third day in a row. The GBP/USD traded down to 2.0322 in the Asian morning session when the USD broadly firmed led by the USD/JPY. The tone changed later in the morning and the dollar started to fade led by the AUD and NZD while the GBP/USD glided up to 2.0355.

The GBP/USD remained bid for the balance of the session despite talk of good selling interest camped between 2.0360/70. The EUR/GBP eased during the Asian session, as the dollar-bloc currencies outperformed when the USD came under a bit of pressure. The cross fell from the opening level at 0.6883 to 0.6772 before settling around 0.6775 for the balance of the session.

Sentiment towards the GBP/USD is decidedly bullish, as analysts feel that the GBP will be one of the main beneficiaries of ongoing US dollar weakness. In the short-term the GBP/USD needs to break above stubborn resistance at 2.0360/70 soon to maintain upward momentum. There is no data out of the UK today and only the Empire Mfg Survey out of the US today.

Yen Outlook (16th July 2007)

The USD/JPY opened in Asia around 121.90 and came under pressure due to EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY selling out of Asia. The USD/JPY traded down to 121.83 when a few stops were triggered in the EUR/JPY below 167.85, but solid USD/JPY bids at 121.80 discouraged attempts lower.

The USD/JPY proceeded to make a hefty bounce back to 122.19 when the JPY crosses turned around with the EUR/JPY trading back to 168.34. Sellers ahead of 122.30 capped and the USD/JPY settled back between 121.90/122.00 for the balance of the Asian session that was quieter than usual due to the Tokyo holiday.

Traders speculate that some of the JPY buying this morning was a delayed reaction to the news that Iran would start taking Japan oil payments in JPY only. The effect soon wore off due to the fact that it only affects around 10 BLN USD worth of flows per year.

In any case the USD/JPY appears poised to move lower after completing a key outside week reversal lower on Friday. There are stops below 121.80 and a break below targets the top of the daily cloud at 121.10/15.

Euro Outlook (16th July 2007)

The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.3780 after trading to an all-time high at 1.3812 on Friday in the wake of weaker than expected US Retail Sales data. The EUR/USD eased to 1.3771 in very early Asia due to EUR/JPY selling that took the cross down to 167.77 after stops were triggered below 167.90.

Good buying interest at 1.3770 and a rebound in the EUR/JPY buoyed the EUR/USD and the pairing trades back to 1.3792 before settling around 1.3785/90 for the balance of the quiet, Tokyo holiday affected session.

Sentiment towards the EUR/USD is decidedly bullish. The EUR/USD is getting short-term support from the mixed US data that is good enough to support the view that the global economy is on strong footing and thereby encouraging US investors push funds offshore and not so good as to raise expectations of a Fed hike.

The EUR/USD is getting long-term support from central bank diversification that is expected to accelerate later in the year. Traders expect the trend higher to continue, but there might be hesitation ahead of some key US inflation and housing data along with Bernanke testifying to the House on Thursday.

Global Events Calendar [16-07-2007] - [20-07-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time.

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Global Events Calendar [16-07-2007] - [20-07-2007]
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [16-07-2007]
[Whole Day Event]---JPY Holiday: Marine Day
2:00pm--------------EUR German CPI m/m
5:00pm--------------EUR CPI m/m
8:30pm--------------USD Empire State Business Conditions Index

Tuesday [17-07-2007]
7:50am---JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m
3:15pm---CHF Retail Sales y/y
4:30pm---GBP CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP RPI y/y
5:00pm---EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00pm---EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
8:30pm---USD PPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Core PPI m/m
9:00pm---USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
9:15pm---USD Industrial Production m/m
9:15pm---USD Capacity Utilization Rate

Wednesday [18-07-2007]
1:00am---USD Kansas City Fed President Hoenig Speaks
1:00am---USD NAHB Housing Market Index
7:50am---JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
4:00pm---EUR Italian Trade Balance
4:30pm---GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
4:30pm---GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus q/y
4:30pm---GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30pm---GBP Unemployment Rate
5:00pm---EUR Trade Balance
8:30pm---USD CPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Core CPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Housing Starts
8:30pm---USD Building Permits
10:00pm--USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [19-07-2007]
7:50am---JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m
2:00pm---EUR German PPI m/m
2:15pm---CHF Trade Balance
4:30pm---GBP Retail Sales m/m
4:30pm---GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
4:30pm---GBP M4 Money Supply m/m
5:00pm---CHF ZEW Expectations
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
9:30pm---USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
10:00pm--USD Leading Index m/m

Friday [20-07-2007]
12:00am--USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
12:30am--USD Chicago Fed President Moskow Speaks
2:00am---USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
3:15pm---CHF PPI m/m
4:30pm---GBP GDP q/q (p)
4:30pm---GBP Index of Services 3m/3m
5:00pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
11:00pm--USD St. Louis Fed President Poole Speaks

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USD/CHF: Stops Seen Into 1.22's, EUR/CHF Steady-To-Bearish

Today the Swiss Federal Treasury announced it was to reopen the tender for the 3.0% 2019 bonds. The results will be released tomorrow but this is unlikely to have a significant impact on the CHF. Into European trading and the Franc is once more struggling as the Dollar looks to eke gains ahead of the Bernanke comments due later today.

The FOMC Chairman is due to speak on inflation and as a result the US unit has managed to elicit more than a modicum of support overnight. USD/CHF is currently testing the supply back from 1.2190 to the 1.2200 mark with local dealers reporting stop/loss interest on a break of 1.2205. French and German names are the best of the recent sellers with London dealers reporting good demand on dips below 1.2170. Bids into 1.2160/65 and 1.2150 will once more look to prop on dips.

EUR/CHF has been forced to trade on a choppy footing amid this initial USD/CHF volatility with the cross bought up to 1.6588. However, offers in the EUR cross are seen from 1.6590 back towards the 1.6600 to cap the topside and as a result the price should continue to look heavy and offset the early buyers once the markets get into top gear. Bids here are seen from 1.6570 back to 1.6565 with more support noted into the 1.6550 area.

Option dealers here suggest that the EUR 500mln 1.6600 strikes due later in the week are helping keep a lid on the price with intraday strikes noted below at 1.6450 & 1.6465. Vol activity has been steady amid the latest spot price decline with the front-end of the curve underpinned by the threats to longer-term support at 1.6550.

Yesterday 2-Month R&R's traded at 0.3 for EUR puts in a EUR 200mln per leg ticket while 1-Month prices are now seen at 3.1/3.5. In the back-end, we are hearing that the 1-Year contract was last sold at 3.1 and now remains offered here.

EUR/USD: Dips Below 1.3600 Look For Stops And Sovereigns

Into early European trading and the Euro is back on the defensive with bids in EUR/USD into 1.3595/3600 looking to prop the price amid the latest dip. Spot was seen as "heavy" overnight and EUR/JPY sales are said to have weighed but it has not been until the approach of the European open that the price finally managed to fill the support into 1.3610 and work lower.

Any further short-term weakness through 1.3600 may threaten the bottom area of 1.3565/70 but for the moment no such sell momentum has been seen. London dealers will once more look for sovereign support for the EUR on dips and it will be such support that helps form the base intraday with dealers also reporting stops below 1.3590 and again sub-1.3575.

The short-term risk-profile for the pair is formed by the EcoFin meeting in Brussels and the French industrial output numbers. German data is already in the pipeline with offers now seen into 1.3610/15 and 1.3630 to cap the topside.

Looking ahead, central bank speculations have returned but today it is the BoC and the impending BoJ verdict that hold the short-term focus. EUR/USD has only comments to work with but speakers from both sides are due on the roster. At 13:00 GMT the ECB Vice President, Papademos, is scheduled to take part in a media event in Brussels while at 17:00 GMT Fed Chairman, Bernanke, is set to discuss US inflation in Massachusetts.

With oil back above $70pb we at IFR look for the FOMC man to give some warning on the knock-on and thus the potential dangers of second-round pressures. Following this event-risk combo the ECB's Stark is due to speak in Frankfurt but the speech will be embargoed until 10:00 GMT on Wednesday.

Swiss Outlook (10th July 2007)

Quiet consolidation was seen in North American trading, as the 1.2155 London lows were retested and held mid-morning in New York following a 1.2165 open. A pullback in US 10-yr Tsy yields from a failed attempt to displace Friday's 5.206% recovery high kept USD/CHF on a soft footing as did lingering expectations of future SNB rate hikes in the wake of Friday's report that Swiss Unemployment fell to 2.7% in June from 2.8% in May, better than the unchanged forecast.

CHF 3-mo LIBOR inched up to 2.72% Monday from 2.71% Friday as the market tries to guess if the SNB will hike rates before their September meeting or perhaps opt for a 50 bp hike at that meeting instead of the 25 bp already priced in. It is suspected that much will depend on how strong the franc is then, with greater leeway to hike if the franc weakens in the interim and vice versa. 1.2235 remains the nearby upside obstacle, with offers seen ahead of there and stops beyond. 1.2155 is a 61.8% Fibo support beside intraday lows.

Little first-tier US economic is due out until Thursday's May trade deficit and Friday's June Retail Sales.

Sterling Outlook (10th July 2007)

The GBP/USD opened in Asia around 2.0155 after being the best performing major currency during the Lon/NY sessions. The GBP/USD traded in a very narrow 2.0146/2.0161 range in Asia, but the GBP gained ground against the EUR with the EUR/GBP easing from 0.6760 to 0.6755.

The firm tone of the GBP was in part attributed to the strong BRC Retail Sales data that showed June like- for-like Retail Sales up 3% Y/Y. Traders also say that the JPY buying, which was the main theme in Asia today, was mostly against the EUR and NZD with the GBP/JPY seeing only light selling flows.

Sentiment towards the GBP/USD remains bullish, but the repeated fails above 2.0200 last week is tempering sentiment as we approach the higher levels. The GBP is getting broad support from the view that the BOE will have to hike again in the months to come.

Hourly support has formed around 2.0135 and only a fall below that level would relieve the upward pressure. UK trades are out later today, but the Bernanke speech on inflation should be the main event for the FX markets.

Yen Outlook (10th July 2007)

The USD/JPY opened in Asia at 123.35 after the JPY made a broad recovery from historic lows against a number of currencies during the Lon/NY sessions. The JPY recovery story picked up steam in Asia amid talk of Japanese security houses and US funds selling decent amounts of EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY.

The EUR/JPY fell from 168.17 to 167.70 while the NZD/JPY fell from 96.30 to 95.55 during the session. The JPY buying on the crosses weighed on the USD/JPY and took it from the morning high at 123.49 to a low of 123.17 before settling between 123.20/30 for the balance of the session.

The EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY show signs of topping out in the short-term. The market is very short the JPY against those currencies and concern that the BOJ meeting might be a more "hawkish" event than previously expected could see some paring back of JPY shorts.

There is talk that some BOJ policy board members might vote for a hike and comments from Governor Fukui may have a hawkish edge. The move below yesterday's 167.90 low in the EUR/JPY ended an eight day sequence of higher daily lows suggesting that the EUR/JPY up move is losing momentum.

Yen Outlook (10th July 2007)

The USD/JPY opened in Asia at 123.35 after the JPY made a broad recovery from historic lows against a number of currencies during the Lon/NY sessions. The JPY recovery story picked up steam in Asia amid talk of Japanese security houses and US funds selling decent amounts of EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY.

The EUR/JPY fell from 168.17 to 167.70 while the NZD/JPY fell from 96.30 to 95.55 during the session. The JPY buying on the crosses weighed on the USD/JPY and took it from the morning high at 123.49 to a low of 123.17 before settling between 123.20/30 for the balance of the session.

The EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY show signs of topping out in the short-term. The market is very short the JPY against those currencies and concern that the BOJ meeting might be a more "hawkish" event than previously expected could see some paring back of JPY shorts. There is talk that some BOJ policy board members might vote for a hike and comments from Governor Fukui may have a hawkish edge.

The move below yesterday's 167.90 low in the EUR/JPY ended an eight day sequence of higher daily lows suggesting that the EUR/JPY up move is losing momentum.

Euro Outlook (10th July 2007)

The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.3625 after an extremely dull US session that saw the pairing trade in a 1.3616/34 range. This did not auger well for the Asian session where the EUR/USD tends to stay nailed inside the range of the previous session. Not surprisingly the range for the EUR/USD in Asia as of this writing has been 1.3616/33, but there have been pretty hefty EUR/JPY flows and they were mostly of a selling nature.

The cross fell from 168.15 to 167.70 before settling around 167.80 in the afternoon. The selling was mainly from Japanese security houses with US model funds joining in. The EUR/JPY selling gave the EUR/USD a heavy tone, but bids lined up around 1.3605 discouraged attempts lower.

Sentiment towards the EUR/USD remains bullish, but a correction lower in the EUR/JPY might be underway and this could temper EUR/USD gains. The key event today will be Bernanke's speech on inflation and some feel that he may be a bit more dovish than expected. If that is the case it could help the EUR/USD finally push through 1.3640 and challenge the all-time high around 1.3680/85.