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Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Sterling Outlook (21st November 2007)

Cable opened in Asia at 2.0660 and has traded in a 2.0637/78 range. EUR/GBP opened at .7173 and has seen a .7171/835 range. A renewed spate of rumours, firstly regarding a possible emergency Fed meeting and secondly regarding Middle East nations and their peg policy have added to volatility but there seems to be little fire to either of these smoke alarms.

Sentiment remains uniformly bearish in Asia towards sterling especially on the crosses and traders talk of an up the stairs down the elevator for the GBP though many will reassess should cable break above intermediate resistance around 2.0845.

Key event risk later today will be the release of minutes from the November BoE MPC meeting which will reveal tendencies leaning towards further rate cuts.

Order books seem to have more stop losses than is usually the case with trader stops above 2.0700 likely to come into play at some stage during the day. Significant optionality between .7200/50 is also likely to act like a magnet to the EUR/GBP market.

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