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Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Yen Outlook (21st November 2007)

USD/JPY and JPY crosses looked bid at the Asian open with EUR/JPY and other crosses actually trading much higher on the back of the fresh record high of 1.4853 record high in EUR/USD and moves higher in other currencies against USD. The positive finish on Wall Street helped. This feel-good tone which some expected to hold into the US Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow and Japan's holiday Friday did not last.

Fresh jitters over subprime lending, exacerbated by recommendations from Goldman Sachs to sell Societe Generale and Credit Suisse stock and comments from ex-Fed Greenspan that moves to clean up the subprime mess are now dead-locked saw the Nikkei and other regional stock market indices tank. This spurred on JPY buys despite comments from Japan METI's Amari that Y110 against USD was appropriate and that any move towards Y100 over the course of year would not.

USD/JPY traded down from 109.99 to as low as 108.89. Bids from Japanese importers on 109 were absorbed in the process. EUR/JPY plunged from 163.16 to 161.66, GBP/JPY from 227.40 to 225.40, AUD/JPY from 98.38 to 96.48 and NZD/JPY from 84.27 to 82.73.

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