Start your Binary Trading income NOW!!!

Sponsored by Nuffnang.com

Thursday, June 28, 2007

Peek of the Day!

12:30 GMT June 27th GBP/USD Offers are touted at 1.9995 & 2.0015.

11:17 GMT June 27th EUR/USD More stops still seen above 1.3475/80.

07:46 GMT June 27th GBP/USD Asian sovereign bids are tipped at 1.9930.

10:09 GMT June 27th GBP/USD Sell interest is tipped at 1.9970.

09:02 GMT June 27th EUR/USD Offers from 1.3440 to 50 look to cap initial rebounds. Topside stops now said to reside above 1.3455.

07:46 GMT June 27th GBP/USD Bids are tipped at 1.9930, 1.9910 & 1.9900.

07:24 GMT June 27th USD/JPY Asian Central Bank demand was seen ahead of 122.40 earlier this morning.

EUR/USD: Merkel Says New European Treaty Saved The Bloc

German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the final week of her presidency claimed that the new European Treaty saved the bloc from an internal split, according to a story on Dow Jones news, and she also wants the treaty ratified before the end of 2009. Dutch and French voters said no to the original re-drafted treaty in referendums two years ago, and the new draft was designed to appease some of those sensitivities.

According to the story the new treaty relies on more decisions being taken by majority rather than unanimous votes, which reduces the threat of national vetoes delaying E.U. policy. The new voting rules will only come into effect in 2014 at the earliest due to horse-trading with Poland.

Merkel was quoted as saying that while failure to reach agreement "would have not been the end of Europe as we know it, it would have had serious consequences." Spot traders have not focused too much on the comments, however the fact that Merkel highlighted the seriousness of the treaty discussions does not seem to have been lost on investors that focus on macro issues, as this remains a contentious issue, and one that highlights the rifts between the "haves and have nots" in the European Community.

EUR/USD has slipped back toward the lows of the day, last trading at 1.3435, having stopped just short of the New York session's 1.3429 low. German CPI data is due up at 12.00 PM, expected to come in around 1.9% y-on-y according to IFR and the market.

USD/JPY: Report Sees Samurai Issuance Aiding JPY Weakness

Since last week, we have noted the flood of fresh JPY issuance and Samurai issuance that has recently emerged taking JPY issuance as a proportion of major global currency issuance to fresh highs for the year this month, at almost 4% and while still at low levels, these are the highest since 2005.

A rise in issuance usually correlates with a stronger currency performance, and would be a factor in recent JPY gains. The fact that USD issuance has surpassed EUR issuance this month for the first time this year is seen reflecting USD demand and helping the USD rebound.

The Nikkei takes a different tact on the flood of Samurai issuance however, which at Y502.8 bln this month is the largest since Sept 2000 with the Nikkei seeing the issuance fuelling JPY weakness as the issuers shift the proceeds of the bonds to other currencies such as the USD and EUR. Today, Kaupthing Bank was the latest to launch JPY denominated debt, with three tranches totaling Y28 bln.

The Nikkei report says that Samurai issuance the first six months of this year has surpassed the record highs during the first half of 2000. Expectations of higher Japanese rates are attracting debtors to lock in low yield costs. Thomson Financial data on issuance can be found on our website at www.ifrmarkets.com. Look under "Macro Flows" and click on "Issuance" which will bring up the latest PDF file on issuance flows year-to-date.

USD/JPY is continuing to grind higher, filling the offers at 122.50 and now trading at 122.55/60. More sellers are seen at 122.75. A steady rise in US bond yields, and with the DJIA paring losses to only 8 pts this morning, is behind the bounce in USD/JPY.

Swiss Outlook (27th June 2007)

USD/CHF has continued to trade shy of 1.23's in Europe this morning as dealers ignore the local KoF data in favor of global sentiment.

Dealers see the 12:30 GMT May Durable Goods release as the key short-term event risk but economists look for a -1.0% reading on the month. Following this, Commerce Secretary, Gutierrez, speaks in Washington at 13:00 GMT with a gap before the Paulson comments at 17:25 GMT.

At 16:00 GMT the Chicago Fed data for May is released but the attention is likely to turn to the two-day FOMC meeting due to convene today. Dealers do not expect the Fed to alter US rates but as ever the outlook for US inflation continues to provide the market with a clear focal-point for debate and speculation.

Should USD/CHF break above the 1.2300/10 offers into NorAm trading then some will look for stops on the move above 1.2315. However, it is not until the price can move above 1.2355 that real follow-through will be garnered in favor of the US unit. As a result, the risk should remain for stabs lower with the daily low from Yesterday eyed at 1.2261.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Sterling Outlook (27th June 2007)

Cable headed south from the European open, on the back of Eastern European selling of GBP/JPY. Asian sovereign demand based cable's fall at an intra-week low of 1.9929, after the tripping of sub-1.9950 sell stops.

1.9950 is now a resistance level. Upper obstacles include 1.9971 (today's Asian session base), 1.9988 (today's Asian session top), 2.0000 and 2.0017 (yesterday's 8-week peak). An exotic option barrier is tipped at 2.0020.

Touted bear targets south of 1.9929 include 1.9900/10, 1.9870 and 1.9850. A 1.9850 option strike rolls off at today's 10am Eastern NY cut (14:00GMT).

US durable goods orders will be disclosed at 12:30GMT. Forecast: down 1.0% m/m, ex-transport +0.3% m/m. A two-day FOMC meeting also begins today. BoE Governor King, and four other MPC members, will address the UK TSC tomorrow.

Tony Blair will tender his resignation as UK Prime Minister in less than two hours time, with Gordon Brown invited to form the next government circa 13:00GMT (BBC website). Brown is expected to name his cabinet tomorrow. Alistair Darling is favourite to become Chancellor.

Yen Outlook (27th June 2007)

USD/JPY and JPY crosses have traded down again but the downside has again met with bids coming out of the woodwork at the lower levels. Despite mini-rebounds, the bias looks to remain to the downside. It is nearing month-end and fiscal year end for many US funds, and long liquidation looks to be a major theme. The same large Japanese semi-official entity which sold USD and other JPY pairs yesterday was back in overnight, pushing USD/JPY and crosses lower.

Into London and USD/JPY fell from levels around 122.85 to 122.35 before bouncing. EUR/JPY fell from 165.20 to 164.27 and as with the spot market has settled into a bout of consolidation. Into the London midday. USD has seen good bids from Japanese importers, option players and retail investors but the weight remains with the bears.

More bids are seen down to key support at 122.00-10 and 122.50 and 123.00 option strikes roll off later today, which could have some impact. Technically not a classic reversal but failure to hold last Friday's 124.16 high and subsequent 123.86 close set up a change in direction and with strong confirmation seen Monday/Tuesday the charts are now pointing to 122.00.

Euro Outlook (27th June 2007)

Today the FOMC begins their two-day meeting to decide the fate of US interest rates, however, no change is yet expected from Bernanke and company. As a result, the Friday week, month, quarter and half-year end is seen as a more interesting prospect for the short-term risk than the immediate risk of the Fed outlook changing.

Into European trading and EUR/USD was once again sold with Euro cross selling also adding weight. Stops below 1.3420 failed to spur fresh loses towards 1.3400 and the emergence of an Asian central bank on the bid into the lows (1.3416) forced the market to attempt a slight bounce.

Into the North American open and spot finds offers into the 1.3445/50 area to cap initial bounces but topside stops are seen above 1.3455 and again on a break of 1.3480. Looking ahead, the 12:30 GMT release of May Durable Goods data is seen as the key short-term risk to the USD.

Should the volatile index fail to match the expectations for a 1.0% fall then any Dollar bounce will look to 1.3400 support while 1.3500 option structures will be targeted in the wake of renewed US unit weakness.

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

EUR/USD: Stuck In A Quagmire, German Data As Expected

EUR/USD continues to trade in the quagmire that is the 1.3455/75 overnight range. Spot will be little aided by the recent publication of German May import numbers of +0.3% M/M & +0.6% on the year. These match market expectations to leave dealers looking to the 08:00 GMT Euro Zone data.

The price currently pivots the 1.3465 mark with bids into the Asian base at 1.3455 with more demand noted into 1.3450. Offers are seen trailing back to 1.3480 with stops noted above but it is the 1.3500 area that will act as a better topside directional trigger.

EZ Current Account numbers for April are due at 08:00 GMT with the seasonally adjusted current account surplus expected to narrow to EUR 3.5Bln, from the EUR 5.4Bln seen in March.

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY: Back Under Pressure, Some Stops Eyed

Both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are trading down again. USD/JPY is indicated at 123.38/41, just shy of the 123.34 seen on the first wave down early this morning. Bids remain from 123.30 however from option players who also have offers from 123.80. Japanese importer bids are also likely from 123.30 towards 123.00, an attempt to buy any dips ahead of month-end. Some stops are eyed below 123.00 but these may still be out of the market's range barring fresh news or economic data.

EUR/JPY is back down around 166.10, just shy also of its early low of 166.00. Support remains down to 165.90-95, 165.93 the spike low in London overnight. Some stops are eyed below 165.90, and this may be the current spec focus with JPY still in retracement mode. As was the case earlier today, dip- buying could see the cross bounce later. Offers are strong up at 166.60-70 and ahead of presumed option barriers at 167.00.

Swiss Outlook (26th June 2007)

The franc was boosted by two factors today. First were renewed signs that the SNB is letting the 3 month Libor rate creep up as a protest over franc weakness. Some suspect the firmer market is a signal to the market to prepare for an intermeeting hike or a 50 basis point hike at the September meeting. Also helping was a fresh bout of risk aversion as hedge fund woes in the subprime mortgage space continued to grab headlines today.

Bloomberg ran a piece saying Merrill sees Bear Stearns being forced to sure up its second, less-leverages subprime hedge fund. A UK fund also announced troubles. EUR/CHF fell to 1.6520 intraday, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.6422/1.6673 rally. A later probe to the downside reached 1.6530. Rallies are limited to 1.6560 n-T.

Local dealers look to the Wednesday KoF data to add credence to the view that the SNB may consider hiking rates by 50bps in Q3. It is expected to rise to 2.0, from the prior 1.96 reading, with risk skewed to the topside. Any 2.0+ headline would be consistent with continued above-trend growth and underline the recent stance of the SNB and SECO that GDP in 2007 could exceed forecasts.

Sterling Outlook (26th June 2007)

The GBP/USD opened in Asia around 1.9980 after failing to maintain a foothold above 2.0000 during the US session. The GBP/USD could only manage a 1.9977/90 range during a deadly quiet Asian session with two-way business out of Tokyo keeping the pairing hemmed within a narrow range. The EUR/GBP was a similar story with the cross staying below the 200-day MA around 0.6741 and trading in a 0.6733/40 range.

Sentiment towards the GBP remains bullish, as the market is preparing for the BOE to hike rates next week and keep the GBP a main beneficiary of ongoing demand for JPY-funded carry trades. There have been a few bouts of carry trade unwinding that has resulted in shallow corrections lower in the GBP/JPY, but support around 246.40 continues to hold on dips as it did today in Asia.

There is talk of stops above 2.0010 in the GBP/USD that remain in focus while yesterday's low around 1.9955 is key support on the day. A break below this level would end a seven day sequence of higher daily lows and suggest the upside momentum is waning. No UK data scheduled today.

Yen Outlook (26th June 2007)

USD/JPY and JPY crosses traded soggy for the most part, down hard early and gradually regaining poise. Sell-offs in various JPY crosses overnight as well as in USD/JPY helped set the tone. The well-read "Position" column in today's Nikkei Financial also helped. It tipped a change in MoF's FX stance and that Japanese officials no longer wanted more yen weakness.

Talk also that former-EcoMin Takenaka called for a 50 bp BoJ interest rate hike this year also made the rounds. Upon confirmation, it seems he meant 50 bps this fiscal year which runs to March, matching market expectations. Some extrapolated a 50 bp move in August. With Mr Takenaka also seeing deflation into "08, such a hawkish view seems unjustified.

Whatever the case, JPY was bought back with dealers noting one large semi-governmental investor leading the foray. USD/JPY traded down from 123.71 to 123.34 before bouncing to 123.40-50. Bids are thick from 123.30, offers from 123.80. EUR/JPY sold off from 166.57 to 166.00 before bouncing to 166.20-30. AUD/JPY traded 104.35-77, NZD/JPY 94.35-72 and GBP/JPY 246.50-247.10, and look to close mid-range.

Euro Outlook (26th June 2007)

The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 2.3465 after a quiet US session that saw the EUR/USD gain all of the ground lost in London where it dipped to 1.3440. The Asian session was extremely quiet for the EUR/USD and it stayed between 1.3455/67 for the Asian trading day.

There was talk of central bank bids below 1.3450 and good selling interest at 1.3475 to keep stops above 1.3480 safe for the time being. There was some action in the JPY crosses once again and the EUR/JPY was a bit more lively trading in a 166.00/57 range.

Traders expect the European session to be fairly quiet as well with no major data out of Europe to budge the EUR/USD out of a tight range. The market will look ahead to the US session with the release of US Consumer Confidence and US New Home Sales. The market is still nervous about how the Bear Stearns problems with CDOs/subprime mortgages will play out and whether or not it will widen enough to have a negative effect on the US economy. The EUR/USD has been influenced by moves in US Treasury yields so further easing of US Treasuries should support the EUR/USD.

Monday, June 25, 2007

Global Events Calendar [25-06-2007] - [29-06-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (+8GMT).

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [25-06-2007] - [29-06-2007]
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [25-06-2007]
2:00pm---EUR German Consumer Confidence
2:00pm---EUR German Import Price Index m/m
10:00pm--USD Existing Home Sales

Tuesday [26-06-2007]
7:50am---JPY CSPI y/y
4:00pm---EUR Current Account
4:00pm---CHF Consumption Indicator
10:00pm--USD New Home Sales
10:00pm--USD Consumer Confidence
10:00pm--USD Richmond Fed Index

Wednesday [27-06-2007]
12:30am--USD Chicago Fed President Moskow Speaks
7:50am---JPY Retail Sales y/y
7:50am---JPY Large Retailers' Sales y/y
4:30pm---GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals
5:30pm---CHF Leading Index m/m
6:00pm---GBP CBI Distributive Trades Realized
6:00pm---GBP CBI Distributive Trades Expected
8:30pm---USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30pm---USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [28-06-2007]
1:00am---USD Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks
7:50am---JPY Industrial Production m/m (p)
2:00pm---GBP Nationwide House Prices m/m
3:55pm---EUR German Unemployment Rate
4:00pm---EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
4:00pm---EUR German Retail PMI
4:00pm---EUR Retail PMI
5:00pm---EUR Italian CPI m/m
8:30pm---USD GDP Annualized q/q (r)
8:30pm---USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q (r)

8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims

Friday [29-06-2007]
2:15am---USD Interest Rate Statement
7:30am---JPY CPI y/y
7:30am---JPY Tokyo CPI y/y
7:30am---JPY Core Tokyo CPI y/y
7:30am---JPY Overall Household Spending y/y
7:30am---JPY Manufacturing PMI
7:30am---JPY Unemployment Rate
1:00pm---JPY Housing Starts y/y
2:45pm---EUR French GDP q/q (r)
4:30pm---GBP Current Account
4:30pm---GBP GDP q/q (r)
4:30pm---GBP Business Investment q/q (r)
4:30pm---GBP Mortgage Approvals
4:30pm---GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
5:00pm---EUR Consumer Confidence
5:30pm---GBP Consumer Confidence
8:30pm---USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
8:30pm---USD Personal Spending m/m
8:30pm---USD Personal Income m/m
9:45pm---USD Chicago PMI
10:00pm--USD Consumer Sentiment (r)
10:00pm--USD Construction Spending m/m

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Global Events Calendar [18-06-2007] - [22-06-2007]

*Time is with respect to Singapore Time (+8GMT).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [18-06-2007] - [22-06-2007]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday [18-06-2007]
7:01am---GBP Rightmove House Price Index m/m
3:15pm---CHF Industrial Production q/q

Tuesday [19-06-2007]
12:00am--EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
1:00am---USD NAHB Housing Market Index
7:00am---USD Boston Fed President Minehan Speaks
4:00pm---EUR Italian Unemployment Rate
5:00pm---EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00pm---EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
8:15pm---USD Boston Fed President Minehan Speaks
8:30pm---USD Housing Starts
8:30pm---USD Building Permits
8:30pm---USD Paul Volcker Speaks

Wednesday [20-06-2007]
7:50am---JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions q/q
7:50am---JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m
7:50am---JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
2:00pm---EUR German PPI m/m
3:15pm---CHF PPI m/m
4:30pm---GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
4:30pm---GBP M4 Money Supply m/m
4:30pm---GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
4:30pm---GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals m/m
10:00pm--USD Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories
11:30pm--USD New York Fed President Geithner Speaks

Thursday [21-06-2007]
7:50am---JPY Trade Balance (p)
2:15pm---CHF Trade Balance
2:30pm---JPY BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks
2:45pm---EUR French Consumer Spending m/m
4:00pm---EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m
4:00pm---EUR Manufacturing PMI
5:00pm---CHF ZEW Expectations
6:00pm---GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm--USD Leading Index m/m

Friday [22-06-2007]
12:00am--USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Expectations Index
4:00pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
5:00pm---EUR Industrial New Orders m/m
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Apology from ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com

Greetings fellow readers of ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com,

I am Ash Ariffin, the author of this blog. For the faithful and regular readers of this blog, you will notice that this blog has not been updated for quite awhile.

The reason being, I was very busy with bank appointments and tonnes load of things to handle. On top of that, I was very sick for about 1 week and I am still recovering. None the less, there is no valid excuse for my actions not updating this blog. Please do accept my sincere apology.

I promise you that this blog will resume with posting of regular and daily articles and news on the Forex Market, latest by the end of June 2007. I apologise once again.

Yours Sincerely,
Ash Ariffin
Author of ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com