My USD/JPY Trade (31-01-2008) - Update.

Harlow everyone.

This trade have just got stopped out with 1pip profit at 11:14pm (Singapore Time) :P Hehehe...

No worries. More opportuinities to come :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/JPY Trade (31-01-2008)

*Attached chart. Click on it for the enlarged version.

Hello everybody...

My trade today on the USD/JPY. Initiated a short position on this pair at 7:24pm (Singapore Time) at the price line of 106.22.

Reason for my short position is based on breaking out of my mini channel plus bearish confirmation via my secret analysis.

My stop loss at 106.47 and target profit at 105.60. Risk:Reward = 25:62 = 1:2.48.

Just got home, now is 10:41pm (Singapore Time). Currently I'm 33pips in the money. As usual, I have already shifted my stop loss to 1pip away from entry price at 106.21 :P hehehe! Confirm 1pip profit :)

Will update when this trade is closed.

Peace and trade safely everyone :)

FOMC Slashes 50-BP

The FOMC, as largely expected, cut its benchmark-lending rate by 50-basis points to 3.0%. In the accompanying statement, the Fed reiterated lingering downside risks to growth – acknowledging that "financial markets remain under considerable stress" amid tightening credit conditions. The Fed said that recent data points toward further deterioration in the housing market and softening in labor conditions. However, the Fed highlighted the need to continue monitoring inflation in spite of expectations for it to moderate in the coming quarters. The greenback, initially stronger heading into the announcement, quickly gave back its gains – slipping to 1.9960 against the sterling and near the 1.49-level versus the euro.

On the data front, US reports painted contrasting outlooks for the economy. The January ADP payrolls blew away consensus estimates for a slight increase to 45k from 40k, instead spiking to 130k. Traders quickly rewarded the dollar following the release. Shortly after, markets were treated to a polar opposite reading on the economy, with the advanced Q4 GDP revealing anemic growth of 0.6% compared with a robust 4.9% reading from the previous quarter. The disappointing growth rate for the fourth quarter, which was its lowest since 2002, fuelled speculation that the US economy is heading into a recession – further supporting the case for additional policy easing from the FOMC in the coming months.

Also worth noting was an announcement from Qatar, which said it was mulling over its currency policy. Qatar’s peg to the dollar has resulted in heavy inflationary pressure given the greenback’s broadbased descent in recent years.

Traders will look ahead to a barrage of economic data from the Eurozone and US in the session ahead. The Eurozone reports consist of Germany’s unemployment rate, retail sales, Eurozone economic sentiment, HICP flash and E-13 unemployment rate. Meanwhile, in the US, the data include personal income, consumption, weekly jobless claims, Q4 ECI and the Chicago PMI.

Euro Buoyed, Awaits Data

Amid growing expectations that the ECB will soon shift to an easing stance, tomorrow’s barrage of Eurozone economic data will be closely scrutinized. Germany’s retail sales in December are seen mixed, with the monthly report reversing the previous month’s 1.7% drop, increasing by 1.5%. However, on an annualized basis, retail sales are forecast to plunge by 4.8% versus a 3.4% drop a year earlier. Germany’s unemployment rate is seen improving slightly to 8.3%, down from 8.4% from December.

The Eurozone economic sentiment is estimated to slip to 104, down from 104.7, while the E-13 unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 7.1%. Also due out will be the flash HICP report, expected to hold steady at 3.1%.

EURUSD holds steady near 1.4780 with interim resistance seen at 1.48, followed by 1.4840 and 1.4870. Additional ceilings will emerge at 1.49, backed by 1.4920 and 1.4965. On the downside, support begins at 1.4750, backed by 1.47 and 1.4675. Subsequent floors are seen at 1.4640, followed by 1.46 and 1.4550.

FX Locked in Range, Awaits FOMC

The greenback was mixed on Tuesday, higher against the yen while drifting lower against the euro and sterling. Supporting the dollar earlier in the session was stronger than expected durable goods orders. Nevertheless, traders remain cautious ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC monetary policy announcement at 2:15 PM. Fed funds futures are currently discounting 76% likelihood for a 50-basis point rate cut tomorrow to 3.0%.

The US economic data revealed sharply stronger than forecast durable goods orders for December to 5.2%, outpacing calls for an increase to 1.5% and reversing the previous month’s 0.1% decline. The core durable goods orders jumped by 2.6%, and the excluding defense reading also improved by 2.9%. Consumer confidence was slightly better than expected in January at 87.9, but down from a month earlier at 88.6. The expectations component plunged to 69.6, versus a revised 75.8 from December.

In addition to the Fed’s monetary policy announcement tomorrow, markets will continue to focus on the US economy – with the releases of the January ADP employment payrolls, largely viewed as a proxy for the key non-farm payrolls, the advanced reading of Q4 GDP and the Q4 PCE. The January ADP payrolls are expected to edge up to 45.0k, down from 40k from December. US economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to decline sharply – down from a robust 4.9% reading in Q3 to an anemic 1.2% in the preliminary Q4 report.

With the markets largely discounting a 50-basis point rate cut tomorrow, anything less will clearly disappoint. It will also be interesting to see the accompanying FOMC statement to gauge the scope of the Fed’s easing stance. Nonetheless, we anticipate the dollar’s downside to be limited given market expectations for the aggressive cut, as well as sentiment that the ECB, BoE and BoJ will also follow suit in reducing interest rates.

My EUR/USD Trade (22-01-2008)

Hello everyone,

My trade on the EUR/USD (22-01-2007). Not very detailed (no attached charts) as I placed this trade while doing so many things at one go. Hope that my detailed timing along with the post will compliment the absence of my charts to assist you see in your charts :)

Around 5:00pm (Singapore Time) | 9:00am (GMT), I saw Bullish Engulfing plus candle body so strong crossing both the 6ma and 23ma, 6ma is having a steep turn, chasing the 23ma and parabolics switch direction and of course my secret confirmation.

I looked at the market with the little time that I had and I initiated a long position at 5:33pm (Singapore Time) | 9:33am (GMT), at the price line of 1.4459.

My TP was at 1.4500 (41 pips) and SL at 1.4445 (14pips), (Risk):(Reward) = (1):(2.9). Reason being on why I only want to look at 41pips is because of FED's interest rate statement and I won't be around to look at my charts because I have something on at 6:00pm (Singapore Time) | 10:00am (GMT) till about now which is like 1:00am (Singapore Time) | 5:00pm (GMT).

So now, looking at my charts, maaaaaaaaan. Wish I was in front of my screen and able to rip out more of the market :P Hahaha! Anyway, 41pips profit for this trade, no complains :) More opportuinities to come :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Bush Pushes $150B Economic Aid Package

President Bush said Saturday "the kind of spending projects that would have little immediate impact on our economy" should not be part of any stimulus package, setting the stage for a possible clash with Democrats.

Bush and the Democratic-controlled Congress are emphasizing their desire to work together as they rush negotiations on a short-term measure to prevent the economy from falling into recession. But while there is broad agreement that one-time tax rebates for consumers will be part of the package, there are different priorities at work for the rest of the measure.

Bush wants to devote a portion to incentives for businesses to invest. Democrats want to add spending for food stamps, unemployment benefits and infrastructure projects.

"This growth package must be built on broad-based tax relief that will directly affect economic growth -- not the kind of spending projects that would have little immediate impact on our economy," the president said in his weekly radio address. "This growth package must be temporary and take effect right away."

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., speaking for the Democrats in their own radio address, said any stimulus package needs to help Americans hardest hit by the weakened economy. He said Democrats want to work with the president and congressional Republicans on a plan that includes tax rebates for most Americans, as well as one-time increases in some programs.

"Economists agree that middle- and working-class people are likely to spend that money in a way that will effectively stimulate the economy and create jobs," Frank said.

"We must cooperate to enact immediately aggressive measures that respond to the economic downturn, while we simultaneously continue a healthy debate about the role of government in a modern economy," Frank said.

On Friday, Bush said any plan, to be effective, would need to represent roughly 1 percent of the gross domestic product, or about $140 billion to $150 billion.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the biggest chunk of the economic package the administration is considering would be targeted to individual taxpayers, though he would not talk about how big these checks might be. A Republican official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the package is not finalized, said the president was hoping to target about $100 billion toward individuals and about $50 billion toward businesses.

Paulson said Bush doesn't support cash for people who don't make enough to pay federal income taxes. The administration also does not back non-tax related ideas, favoring simplicity to ensure a package could be passed and implemented quickly, Paulson said.

"We're not looking to decorate a Christmas tree," he said.

Some Democrats were disappointed.

Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., said he agrees with Bush that a plan must be approved quickly, but he said it must help working families.

"The people who are struggling every day to pay their bills, heat their homes, and pay their mortgages need our help now," Kennedy said. "We must act quickly to provide immediate help for those in crisis."

Bush, Bernanke Support Stimulus Package

President Bush and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday embraced calls for an economic stimulus package to avert recession. Bernanke said such a plan should be quickly implemented and temporary so that it won't complicate longer-term fiscal challenges.

The Fed chief, in testimony prepared for the House Budget Committee, did not embrace any specific provisions or a specific plan. Rather, he spoke to the general concept of an economic rescue package. It is likely that any such package would include tax rebates.

"Fiscal action could be helpful in principle" and may provide "broader support for the economy" than the Fed can furnish alone through reductions in interest rates, Bernanke said in prepared testimony to the House Budget Committee. However, "the design and implementation of the fiscal program are critically important," he said.

"The president does believe that over the short term, to deal with the softening of the economy, that some boost is necessary," Bush spokesman Tony Fratto said.

On Capitol Hill, Bernanke agreed that "fiscal action could be helpful in principle" and may provide "broader support for the economy" than the Fed can furnish through reductions in interest rates alone. In his testimony for the House Budget Committee, the Fed chief said, "The design and implementation of the fiscal program are critically important."

Bernanke didn't recommend specific provisions or endorse a specific plan, but rather spoke to the general concept of an economic rescue package. It is likely that any package that emerges will include tax rebates.

First trade of 2008. EUR/USD Trade (16-01-2008)

*Attached charts (Before & After). Click on it for the enlarged version.

Hello Everyone,

My first trade for the year of 2008 :)

Initiated a short position on the EUR/USD at 12:51pm (Singapore Time) today :)

What I saw was that:
1) Dark Cloud Cover.
2) Parabolics SAR is still above.
3) 6MA is still below 23MA.
4) My secret confirmation.

Shorted it at the price of 1.4839. Stop loss was placed at 1.4868, Target Profit at 1.4754.

Target Profit was hit at 11:47pm (Singapore Time), was not in time to shift my Target Profit :) It is ok. 85pips profit for my first trade in 2008 :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...