Fed Releases Discount-Window Lending Records Under Order

The Federal Reserve released thousands of pages of secret loan documents under court order, almost three years after Bloomberg LP first requested details of the central bank’s unprecedented support to banks during the financial crisis.

The records, 894 files in PDF form that must be individually opened and read, reveal for the first time the names of financial institutions that borrowed directly from the central bank through the so-called discount window. The Fed provided the documents after the U.S. Supreme Court this month rejected a banking industry group’s attempt to shield them from public view.

“This is an enormous breakthrough in the public interest,” said Walker Todd, a former Cleveland Fed attorney who has written research on the Fed lending facility. “They have long wanted to keep the discount window confidential. They have always felt strongly about this. They don’t want to tell the public who they are lending to.”

The central bank has never revealed identities of borrowers since the discount window began lending in 1914. The Dodd-Frank law exempted the facility last year when it required the Fed to release details of emergency programs that extended $3.3 trillion to financial institutions to stem the credit crisis. While Congress mandated disclosure of discount-window loans made after July 21, 2010 with a two-year delay, the records released today represent the only public source of details on discount- window lending during the crisis.

Global Economic Calendar (01-April-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 1st April 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Obama Calls for Incentives to Spur U.S. Oil, Gas Production

President Barack Obama said there are no “quick fixes” for higher energy costs and the U.S. must embark on a long-term plan to tap domestic resources, cut usage and develop alternatives to fossil fuels.

The turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa that has driven up oil prices, the earthquake in Japan that triggered a nuclear emergency and increasing competition for resources from the rapidly growing economies of China and India demonstrate the challenges faced by the U.S., Obama said in a speech today.

He called for new incentives to boost production of oil, gas and biofuels, tougher fuel efficiency standards for vehicles and greater reliance on cleaner sources of energy, including nuclear power. The goal, Obama said, is to cut oil imports by a third in a decade.

“We cannot keep going from shock when gas prices are up to trance when they go back down,” Obama said at Georgetown University in Washington. “The United States of America cannot afford to bet our long-term prosperity and our long-term security on a resource that will eventually run out.”

Obama’s energy policies have come under fire from congressional Republicans as the cost of gasoline rises. Prices are up more than 20 percent this year and are 33 percent higher than a year ago. The national average price of regular gasoline at the pump was $3.587 a gallon yesterday, AAA said on its website. That’s the highest since Oct. 2, 2008.

Global Economic Calendar (31-03-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 31st March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (30-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 30th March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Shippers Stick With Tokyo as U.S. Says Radiation Easily Cleaned

Five of the six biggest container shippers are maintaining routes to Tokyo and Yokohama after the U.S. Navy said radiation on vessels from the leaking Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant can be scrubbed off with soap and water.

A.P Moeller-Maersk A/S, Mediterranean Shipping Co. and CMA CGM SA, the top three, are still serving Japan’s two busiest container ports, 2 1/2 weeks after an earthquake and tsunami damaged the Fukushima plant, 220 kilometers (135 miles) to the north. Among the top six shippers, only Hapag-Lloyd AG, the No. 4, is diverting vessels to docks in the south of the country.

The Japanese government is allowing ships to sail as close as 30 kilometers to the stricken reactors, and the International Maritime Organization, a United Nations agency, says operations in and out of Japan can continue as normal, with levels of radiation presenting no medical basis for imposing restrictions.

“These are extremely low levels and are easily cleaned off,” Commander Jeff Davis, a spokesman for Seventh Fleet, which is helping with recovery efforts, said by today by telephone. “Even if they weren’t, they still wouldn’t rise to the level where they would cause any harm to human health.”

Tokyo port, which accounted for 22 percent of Japanese container throughput last year, according to market researcher Alphaliner, has tried to ease fears through steps including posting information about radiation levels. They were safe as of March 27, according to the Transport Ministry’s website.

U.S. Consumer Spending Rose More Than Forecast in February

Consumer spending in the U.S. rose more than forecast in February as incomes climbed, helping to bolster the expansion in the world’s largest economy.

Purchases increased 0.7 percent, the most since October, after advancing 0.3 percent the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Incomes increased 0.3 percent, less than projected, and the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation accelerated.

The U.S. added jobs for the sixth consecutive month in February and the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since April 2009, helping cushion Americans from higher food and fuel prices. Spending is contributing to the recovery, which Fed policy makers say is on a “firmer footing.”

“The picture for consumers is that they’re spending at a moderate pace,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York, who correctly forecast the gain in sales. “We are on a decent pace of expansion.”

Stock-index futures held earlier gains after the report and Treasury securities fell. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing in June rose 0.3 percent to 1,313.8 at 8:44 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to prices, increased to 3.47 percent from 3.44 late on March 25.

The median estimate of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 0.5 percent advance in spending after a previously reported 0.2 percent gain the prior month. Projections ranged from little change to gains of 0.8 percent.

Global Economic Calendar (29-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 29th March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (28-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 28th March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (25-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 25th March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Worst Texas Drought in 44 Years Hits U.S. Wheat, Beef Supply

The worst Texas drought in 44 years is damaging the state’s wheat crop and forcing ranchers to reduce cattle herds, as rising demand for U.S. food sends grain and meat prices higher.

Texas, the biggest U.S. cattle producer and second-largest winter-wheat grower, got just 4.7 inches (12 centimeters) of rain on average in the five months through February, the least for the period since 1967, State Climatologist John Nielsen- Gammon said. More than half the wheat fields and pastures were rated in poor or very poor condition on March 20.

Dry conditions extending to Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado may cut crop yields in the U.S., the world’s largest exporter, as too much moisture threatens fields in North Dakota and in Canada. Wheat futures in Chicago are up 50 percent in the past year, after drought in Russia and floods in Australia hurt output and sent global food prices surging. Wholesale beef reached a record this week, and the U.S. cattle herd in January was the smallest since 1958.

“We’re probably already seeing some damage, but in the next couple of weeks, we’ll surely go downhill major if we don’t get some rain,” said David Cleavinger, who is irrigating 75 percent of his 1,000 acres (405 hectares) of wheat in Wildorado, Texas. “With the prices we’re seeing, we’re trying to hold on, but there’s nothing that takes the place of a rainstorm.”

Cleavinger, 53, has a 3,500-acre farm that includes corn and cotton.

Global Economic Calendar (24-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 24th March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (23-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 23rd March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Tokyo threatens further yen intervention

Tokyo on Tuesday threatened further possible action by the Group of Seven leading industrialised nations to intervene in currency markets to weaken the yen, after Friday's concerted move.

"First we agreed on joint intervention on March 18, and based on that agreement, we put language in the statement saying, 'We will monitor exchange markets closely and will cooperate as appropriate,'" Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said of the latest G7 action and accompanying communique.

"That tells you everything."

The comments reinforced caution among players that if they push up the yen too sharply and quickly, Japanese authorities may move to push it down with the possible backing of other G7 countries, dealers said.

A Japanese government bureaucrat familiar with the nation's currency policy told Dow Jones Newswires earlier in the day that "there wasn't any such decision made" to limit concerted yen-selling by the G7 to last Friday.

Friday's moves by Japanese, US, eurozone, Canadian and British monetary authorities -- their first concerted action in a decade -- pushed the yen down from its post World War II dollar high hit after the twin natural disasters.

It also demonstrated international sympathy for Japan's plight, as volatile currency movements threaten its crucial export sector. A strong yen makes goods more expensive overseas and erodes companies' repatriated profits.

Last week, the greenback tumbled below 77 yen, a move Tokyo blamed on speculators betting on an influx of capital by Japanese companies to aid reconstruction efforts.

On Tuesday, the yen was at 80.95 to the dollar from 81.07 late Monday in New York.

Japan intervened unilaterally in September 2010 to weaken the unit in a move that drew criticism from some corners.

Japan Economy V-Shaped Rebound Hangs on End to Blackouts

Japan is likely to see a rebound in the second half of this year after a blow that will be determined by the magnitude of electricity disruptions caused by the earthquake and tsunami, a survey of economists showed.

Banks are split on whether the nation will slip into a recession, with Mizuho Securities Co. saying that’s “almost certain,” and Barclays Capital not seeing a single quarter of contraction. Annualized growth will trough at 0.4 percent in the second quarter, the median forecasts of nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg News show.

“The hits to the electricity supply and extent of the hits to the supply chain are making it harder to analyze,” said Michael Buchanan, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong, who previously worked at the International Monetary Fund. The longer it takes to restore electricity, the bigger the damage, he said.

At stake for Japan’s trading partners is a resumption in exports of components and equipment used in the assembly of goods abroad, such as silicon wafers, liquid-crystal displays and electric machinery. Supply disruptions could result in an increase in business costs as companies opt to hold bigger inventories, according to Moody’s Analytics.

Global Economic Calendar (22-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 22nd March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (21-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 21st March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (17-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 17th March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Crude Oil May Rise on Bahrain Unrest, Inventories

Crude prices declined yesterday as Japanese refining capacity remained largely offline in the aftermath of the Tohoku earthquake and subsequent tsunami, but the makings of a rebound appear to be emerging. Tensions in the Middle East threaten to jump back into the forefront as Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) troops begin putting down unrest in Bahrain, where mostly Shiite protesters (allegedly egged on by Iran) are pitted against a Sunni government.

The outcome of the situation is critical in that Bahrain is a microcosm of what could happen in neighboring Saudi Arabia – the world’s largest oil exporter. The nascent Saudi protest movement is centered on the oil-rich and Shiite-dominated regions along the Persian Gulf and their qualms with the regime closely mirror those in Bahrain. Furthermore, the GCC force is dominated by Saudi forces, hinting that whatever happens in the island nation can be used as a close approximation for what is to be expected in the Kingdom.

Upward pressure may also emerge following the release of US Department of Energy inventory figures, which are expected to show stockpiles grew at a slower pace in the five days through March 11 than in the preceding week. Meanwhile, the situation in Japan remains highly fluid and the recent moderation in news flow can be interrupted at a moment’s notice, threatening another bout of knee-jerk volatility.

Prices put in a bullish Dragonfly Doji candlestick above support at $96.63, a level reinforced by the bottom of a falling channel set from the swing top set earlier this month. A rebound initially targets the $100/barrel figure. Alternatively, renewed selling through immediate support exposes $94.49.

Strong support for USD/JPY currently at 80.45.

With price breaching yesterday's low, Pivot S1 is currently a strong support for USD/JPY at 80.45.

Japan going through not a good time with tsunami and earthquakes hitting them, will this be a strong factor? Japanese stocks suffered a bargain and here with FX, JPY is struggling to breathe even with BOJ cash injections.

We have reached middle of the week and the downward momentum seemed to slowed down or so it may seem. Go slow on the downs, might be a possible turn around coming up.

U.S. Producer Prices Rise More than Forecast, Led by Food, Oil

Wholesale costs in the U.S. rose more than forecast in February, led by food prices at a more than three-decade high and a surge in energy.

The producer-price index climbed 1.6 percent from the prior month, the most since June 2009, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median projection in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.7 percent gain. The so-called core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy costs increased 0.2 percent, matching forecasts.

The cost of raw materials has risen further as expanding economies in Asia and Latin America lift demand, and crude oil has been pushed up by turmoil in the Middle East. Even so, firms have limited scope to raise prices to shield profits, allowing the Federal Reserve yesterday to maintain monetary easing to spur growth while citing “subdued” underlying inflation.

“Companies hardly have pricing power,” Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale SA in New York, said before the report. “Underlying inflation is contained.”

Estimates for producer prices were based on forecasts from 72 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from a drop of 0.1 percent to a gain of 1.1 percent, after a 0.8 percent rise in January.
Food, Energy

Wholesale prices excluding volatile food and energy costs were projected to rise 0.2 percent from the prior month, the survey showed. The core index rose 0.5 percent in January.

Compared with a year earlier, companies paid 5.6 percent more for goods last month after a 3.6 percent rise in January.

Core wholesale prices climbed 1.8 percent in the 12 months ended in February, in line with the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey and following a 1.6 percent year-over-year gain the prior month.

The cost of food increased 3.9 percent, the most since November 1974, while energy prices rose 3.3 percent led by a 15 percent jump in home heating oil.

Expenses for intermediate goods rose 2.0 percent from the prior month, the biggest gain since July 2008.

Prices of crude goods increased 3.4 percent.

El Segundo, California-based Mattel Inc. (MAT) is among companies that plan to try to raise prices to cushion their profits. The world’s largest toymaker said the increases would be across all its brands.

Japanese Yen Erases Gains, Trades Lower on BOJ Cash Injection

The Japanese Yen is trading broadly lower against its major counterparts, down as much as 0.8 percent on average against its major counterparts, after the Bank of Japan said it will add a record 12 trillion yen in additional liquidity into the financial system to lower borrowing costs and dampen the economic cost of the largest earthquake in the island nation’s history.

Downward pressure was compounded by speculation of additional support measures to emerge out of the BOJ’s monthly policy meeting set to begin today with an announcement due tomorrow. The Yen opened the week on a firm note, rising as much as 1.4 percent against the majors as Japanese shares plunged, boosting repatriation flows into the safety-linked currency.

Fed Sees Economy on ‘Firmer Footing’; Affirms Bond Purchases

Federal Reserve policy makers said the recovery is gaining strength and that higher energy prices will have a temporary effect on inflation, while reaffirming plans to buy $600 billion of Treasuries through June.

“The economic recovery is on a firmer footing, and overall conditions in the labor market appear to be improving gradually,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today in its statement after a one-day meeting in Washington. The effects of higher fuel and commodity costs on inflation will be “transitory,” and officials “will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations,” the Fed said.

The statement represents an upgrading of the outlook by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues, who removed language that the recovery is “disappointingly slow” and that “tight credit” is holding back consumer spending. Policy makers went out of their way to acknowledge higher commodity prices while dismissing any inflation danger.

“This statement takes QE3 off the table, as they are taking off the downside risk in deflation and saying the economy is on track,” John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a reference to speculation that the Fed might embark on a third round of quantitative easing.

Global Economic Calendar (16-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 16th March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Japan Appeals for International Aid in Fight Against Meltdown

Prime Minister Naoto Kan appealed for international help and workers battled to prevent a nuclear meltdown after a second blast rocked an atomic plant north of Tokyo. Millions remained without electricity or water following Japan’s strongest earthquake, which may have killed 10,000.

The 8.9-magnitude temblor and subsequent tsunami on March 11 has led to what Kan called the country’s worst crisis since World War II. Stocks plunged and the Bank of Japan poured record funds into the economy.

No large release of radiation was detected after the nuclear-plant explosion, which didn’t breach Fukushima power station’s No. 3 reactor and followed a build-up of hydrogen gas, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told reporters in Tokyo yesterday. The risk of a large leak is very small, he said.

“The situation at the Fukushima nuclear plant continues to be a concern,” Kan said at a meeting of the government’s crisis response team in Tokyo. “Everyone connected with this is working with all their might, without regard to day or night, to prevent further damage.”

Japan’s government asked the United Nations atomic agency to provide “expert missions” to help stabilize the nuclear reactors, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Yukiya Amano said in a statement from Vienna.

The cooling system failed at Fukushima Dai-Ichi station’s No. 1 and No. 3 reactors after the earthquake, and it stopped working yesterday at the No. 2 reactor. Operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. said it cannot rule out that fuel rods are melting at the No. 2 reactor after they became exposed for a second time by a drop in water levels.

Slower Growth Signaled by Wal-Mart Stock as Commodities Rise

Economists ignore volatile commodity prices when calculating inflation. The poorest families, who spend as much as 25 percent of their after-tax income on food and fuel, don’t have that luxury.

Rising prices “will shave a couple tenths off consumer spending, and the consumers that are going to get hit the most are at the lower end of the income scale,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. On March 11, he lowered his forecast for first quarter growth to 2.5 percent from 3.5 percent and second quarter growth to 3.5 percent from 4 percent, citing in part the persistence of higher energy costs.

America’s poorer families are suffering more than richer households as they face a bigger squeeze from the highest gasoline expenses in more than two years, stagnating wages and a jobless rate that has remained at or above 8.9 percent since April 2009. Their pain is shared by their preferred retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) and J.C. Penney Co.

“Rising gas prices and still-high unemployment levels weigh on the minds of our customers,” Bill Simon, U.S. chief executive officer of Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart, said on a Feb. 22 earnings call. “Pressure from higher energy and commodity costs are factors that we will watch closely, as they affect our own logistics and transportation costs, as well as the prices the customer pays,” he said.

Global Economic Calendar (15-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 15th March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Stock Rally May Withstand Japan Disaster as Economic Growth Tops 4%

Stocks in Japan are poised to fall when trading resumes today while investors said that barring a nuclear disaster, the country’s worst earthquake on record is unlikely to halt the two-year bull market in global equities.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average will slide about 2 percent when trading begins, futures show. Lost production from the Tohoku region where the quake struck might not be enough to spur a recession, Bank of America Corp. said. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told reporters he’s ready to unleash “massive” liquidity starting this morning in Tokyo to assure financial stability.

“The purely economic consequences will be modest: some reconstruction, some more government spending,” said Charles de Vaulx, a manager at New York-based International Value Advisers LLC, where he co-manages the $1.8 billion IVA International Fund including Japanese stock. “No major international consequences, either, except maybe helping drive long-term rates higher. We do not expect to make any significant changes to our portfolio as a result of this tragedy.”

The fastest global economic growth since 2007 and record U.S. profits that helped spur the 95 percent rally in the MSCI All-Country World Index of 45 nations should be intact, investors said. While the quake adds to concerns such as violence in Libya and Europe’s debt crisis, shares may benefit from reduced inflation expectations as damage to oil refineries curbs demand for crude.

Japan Readies ‘Massive’ Liquidity as BOJ Gauges Risk to Post-Quake Economy

The Bank of Japan may today inject more short-term cash into the banking system after the nation’s most powerful earthquake on record, while keeping its asset- purchase plans unchanged as officials gauge the longer-term effect on the world’s third-largest economy.

Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told reporters late yesterday he’s ready to unleash “massive” liquidity starting this morning in Tokyo, as the BOJ seeks to assure financial stability.

Economists said officials will likely decide to keep longer-term credit programs at a total of 35 trillion yen ($428 billion) when they meet today at 1 p.m. in Tokyo. The bank’s main interest rate has already been cut to almost zero as policy makers last year sought to end the nation’s deflation.

“Monetary policy will be unchanged, but they will probably pledge to provide ample liquidity,” said Takehiro Sato, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co. in Tokyo. Policy makers may also “establish an emergency lending facility to help financial institutions in Tohoku,” the northern region most damaged by the catastrophe, he said.

Shirakawa and his board could opt to accelerate asset purchases, including government bonds and exchange-traded funds, within the existing credit programs, particularly if the yen climbs and stocks tumble, said Masaaki Kanno, chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo, who used to work at the central bank.

Global Economic Calendar (14-03-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 14th March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Global Economic Calendar (10-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 10th March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

SquawkBox - Squeeze and more squeeze...

As of today, AUD/USD continues to squeeze itself out. With the support trend line holding price movements within its space. It might not be ready to break out tonight if it turns towards the upper resistance to continue the squeeze.

As mentioned, tough day to make decisions and it will continue for the rest of week. Do not make harsh decisions and if you are going for it, get out fast.

Global Economic Calendar (09-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 9th March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Confidence at U.S. Small Companies Hits Three-Year High

Confidence among U.S. small companies rose in February to the highest level in three years as hiring and sales expectations increased, a survey showed.

The National Federation of Independent Business’s optimism index climbed to 94.5, the highest since the recession began in December 2007, the Washington-based group said today in a statement. The reading compares with the average 100.7 during the previous expansion that started in November 2001.

Hiring plans rose to the second-highest level since September 2008, a sign employment may pick up in coming months. At the same time, earnings expectations remained negative, and fewer businesses said it was a good time to expand.

“The future is looking brighter for a few more small- business owners,” William Dunkelberg, the group’s chief economist, said in the statement. Still, he said, “this is not a reading that characterizes a strongly rebounding economy.”

Figures on employment turned more optimistic. Small businesses with plans to add to payrolls rose 2 points to a net 5 percent. A net 15 percent of firms in the February survey said they were having trouble filling job openings, the highest level since September 2008.

“Employment in the small-business space is increasing slowly,” Kiran Patel, general manager at the small business group at Intuit Inc., which markets software solutions for small- and medium-sized firms, told a teleconference on March 2. “Things are a lot better today than they were 18 months ago, but we are far from being at the place where we were before the deep recession.”

U.S. Home Sales Accelerate as Prices Decline Amid Rebound

The third decline in U.S. home prices in three years is driving a pickup in sales as bargain hunters rush to buy before mortgage rates rise, even as values may slump further.

Mounting foreclosures pushed the median price for a U.S. existing home to $158,800 in January, the lowest level since 2002, according to the National Association of Realtors. At the same time, sales climbed 22 percent from October, the biggest three-month gain since the end of a homebuyer tax credit. The rally began as mortgage rates started to rise from record lows in November and the economic expansion picked up speed.

“The job market is beginning to gain traction, consumer confidence is improving, and even though mortgage rates have increased, they’re near historic lows,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “Prices may go down a bit more, but we’re still seeing a pop in sales.”

Fannie Mae, the largest mortgage-finance company, forecasts home prices will fall further this year and sales will jump. Discounts on foreclosed properties are eroding the values of other homes, making houses more affordable and opening the market to more people. A sustained increase in sales may signal a bottom in values as prices fall to levels buyers can’t resist.

SquawkBox - Nice squeezing with AUD/USD (Daily)

What a squeeze that is happening with the AUD/USD. Really beautiful, hopefully the breakout will be equally spectacular.

With the EUR/USD having a psychological push down at 1.4even, a breakout is waiting to happen with the AUD/USD. Nothing is going anywhere with my Target Profits all placed very tightly due to uncertainties.

Oil is surging like nobody's business causing a rally with USD/CAD. This week is going to be one tough week with a lot of traders waiting for the run. I have been switching between 5mins, 1hr and daily and lately more on 5mins to secure that quicky deal while the main run is greatly awaited for.

Barclays Awards Chief Executive Diamond $11 Million Bonus

Barclays Plc (BARC) gave Robert Diamond as much as 10.1 million pounds ($16.5 million) in salary, bonuses and stock, making him the U.K.’s top-paid bank chief executive officer as the government presses lenders to curb remuneration.

Diamond was awarded a 6.5 million-pound bonus for 2010 and a further 2.25 million pounds depending on the lender’s performance, London-based Barclays said in a statement today. His base salary will rise to 1.35 million pounds from 250,000 pounds after he became CEO on Jan. 1.

The government is pushing banks to curb pay after it was forced to bail out the industry during the credit crisis and as it enacts the deepest-ever reductions in public spending. Diamond, 59, told lawmakers last month that his bank, which didn’t receive direct government aid, would exercise restraint when paying bonuses and that was time for firms to end “the period of remorse and apology” and start boosting confidence.

“Diamond tries to convince taxpayers that the era of remorse and regret within banking is over, yet he has no shame in pocketing a seven-figure bonus,” Unite trade union General Secretary Len McCluskey said in a statement today. “There is no possible justification for this highly paid individual taking home this enormous windfall.”

Oil, Gold Climb on Libya Fighting; Greek Debt Risk Increases

Oil rose to a 29-month high and gold jumped to a record as fighting in Libya intensified, while about $15 billion in potential takeovers boosted European stocks. Greek default risk climbed after Moody’s Investors Service cut the nation’s credit rating by three steps.

Oil advanced 2.3 percent to $106.84 a barrel at 7:55 a.m. in New York. Gold rallied to $1,444.30 an ounce. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.3 percent and S&P 500 Index futures were little changed. Bulgari SpA soared 58 percent after a takeover bid by LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA. The cost of insuring Greek government debt rose to a two-month high and the nation’s 10-year bond yield climbed seven basis points to 12.32 percent. The euro strengthened against 0.3 percent the dollar.

Fighting increased between Libyan rebels and troops loyal to Muammar Qaddafi, reducing the nation’s crude-oil output by as much as 1 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency. Saudi Arabia released a leading Shiite cleric as websites called for a “Day of Rage,” according to two activists and Human Rights Watch. Bulgari surged after LVMH agreed to buy the world’s third-largest jeweler for about 3.7 billion euros ($5.2 billion).

“A swift return to normality is unlikely” a team of analysts led by Eugen Weinberg, the Frankfurt-based head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG, wrote in a report. “It is essentially the fear of the unrest spreading across the entire region which is pushing oil prices up.”

Global Economic Calendar (08-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 8th March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Oil at $110 May Trigger Pain CEOs Weathered at $100

A recovering economy helped U.S. chief executive officers weather crude’s surge past the $100 mark. At $110 a barrel, the pain would start to kick in.

As oil traded at 29-month highs last week on concern that violence in Libya would further crimp Middle Eastern supplies, CEOs said they were waiting to see how much the price rises, and for how long.

“Any time something like oil goes up dramatically overnight, it becomes very hard to adequately plan,” said Samuel Allen, 57, chairman and CEO of Deere & Co. (DE), the world’s largest maker of agricultural equipment. “It has caused us to be more careful or cautious in watching the outlook, but we have still moved forward with all our plans.”

Corporate assumptions would have to start changing when oil reaches $110 a barrel, according to economists such as Chris Low of FTN Financial in New York. Crude at that price would offset the benefit from the tax cut approved by Congress in December, and begin to slow economic growth, Low said.

“As long as consumers are willing to pay up a little more, there really isn’t going to be a significant impact,” Low said in an interview. “But we’re pretty quickly running out of time there with oil through $100 a barrel. We’re getting to levels where we have to think about taking our forecasts lower.”

Oil for April delivery jumped 2.5 percent to $104.42 a barrel in New York on March 4, the highest since Sept. 26, 2008. That pushed the gain to 21 percent since Feb. 18, when crude began climbing as Libya’s civil strife stoked concern that energy exports elsewhere in the region might also be at risk. Brent crude, the London benchmark used to price many European and African oils, closed March 4 at $115.97.

SquawkBox - After the massacre...

After the massacre of last Friday during US Non-Farm Payroll. Will there be a follow through in the market today?

Can the USD/JPY touch 81.75 today? From the looks of it, it may seem not to but we shall see. Why 81.75? It seems to be a good support level based on last week's price action.

If that is not the case, we can look forward to 82.83 and followed by 83.35 as resistance level. Either way, anything is possible in trading. Let's see how it goes today.

Retail Sales in U.S. Probably Climbed in February as Auto Purchases Rose

U.S. retail sales probably climbed in February by the most in four months, spurred by job growth and more seasonable temperatures, economists said before a report this week.

The projected 1 percent gain would follow a 0.3 percent January increase, according to the median forecast of 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Commerce Department figures March 11. Other reports may show the trade deficit widened in January and consumer confidence fell this month as gasoline prices rose.

J.C. Penney and Macy’s Inc. (M) were among retailers that topped analysts’ sales estimates, a sign household spending regained momentum after a weather-restrained January. While higher fuel costs may be concerning Americans, bigger paychecks thanks to the tax compromise reached by President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans are probably preventing demand from slipping for now.

“Chain-store sales did well, automobile sales improved sharply and employment bounced back” last month, said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “Households may have realized that they have some extra cash in their pockets due to this year’s cut in the payroll tax.”

Retail sales excluding automobiles and service stations rose 0.4 percent in February, the most in three months and twice the January gain, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Global Economic Calendar (07-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 7th March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Payrolls Likely Rebounded as U.S. Economy, Weather Improved

Payroll gains in the U.S. probably accelerated in February, spurred by an improving economy and more seasonable temperatures, economists said ahead of a government report today.

Employment increased by 196,000 workers last month, the most since May, after a 36,000 gain in January, when winter storms depressed the count, according to the median forecast of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report may also show the jobless rate increased to 9.1 percent from 9 percent.

Bigger, sustained monthly payroll gains would underscore Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s testimony to Congress this week that there are “grounds for optimism” about the labor market in coming months. Employment growth and the resulting increases in income and confidence are contributing to sales improvements at companies like J.C. Penney Co. and Macy’s Inc. (M)

“The labor market has passed an important threshold and is starting to create a good number of jobs,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “It’s partly a snow-related rebound, but I think there’s some real substance there. We’re looking for jobs to run 200,000 plus in coming months as the recovery reaches the self- sustainable stage.”

The Labor Department figures are due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg payroll survey forecasts ranged from gains of 100,000 to 297,000.

Global Economic Calendar (04-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 02nd March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Hedge Funds, Brokers in U.S. May Face Fresh Calls for Risk Data

Hedge funds, broker-dealers and mortgage companies may face unprecedented demands for data on everything from risk exposure to trading partners as U.S. regulators seek to identify firms that pose a potential threat to the financial system, a confidential government report says.

The staff of the Financial Stability Oversight Council identified dozens of “potential metrics” to decide which non- bank financial firms should be designated “systemically important” and subject to Federal Reserve supervision, according to an 80-page study obtained by Bloomberg News.

For example, insurance companies might be asked to divulge their derivatives exposure and the names of principal creditors, according to the study. Asset managers might have to submit a new form, dubbed PF for private funds, with details of their gross exposure, ties to other firms and portfolio risk as measured in stress tests.

“The FSOC will be after a lot of information,” Amy Friend, managing director of Promontory Financial Group in Washington, said at a Feb. 25 seminar at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “The Fed may come knocking on some doors, and people need to know how to talk to the Fed.” Friend is former chief counsel of the Senate Banking Committee, where she worked on the Dodd-Frank bill that created the council.

The council, charged with averting another financial crisis, will collect data that can be used to force firms to raise capital, increase liquidity and sell assets deemed too concentrated in any segment of the economy. Industry groups for hedge funds, mutual funds and insurance companies are lobbying to avoid being designated systemically important.

Global Economic Calendar (03-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 03rd March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Trades Done (February 2011)

February was quite tough for me. Strategy testing mixed with emotional trading. It is quite tough changing hat when I am so used to my earlier strategy. First half of February was seen on how badly I was reacting, subsequently, sat down, reviewed everything and told myself, if this were to continue, my new strategy will never be put into place.

So second half of February, I am more likely to be ok :P Hahahahhahahaha...Anyway, what is done, is done =^_^= 222pips for February 2011...

Goldman Sachs Lost Money From Trading on 25 Days in 2010

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the fifth- biggest U.S. bank by assets, lost money from trading on 25 days during 2010, up from a record-low 19 days in 2009, according to a regulatory filing.

After incurring losses on trades during 12 days in the first 9 months, the full-year figures indicate that Goldman Sachs lost money on 13 days in the fourth quarter. The firm’s traders also made $100 million or more on 68 days in 2010, down from the record 131 days in 2009, according to the New York- based company’s annual 10-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Traders exceeded the firm-wide “value-at-risk” limit, or VaR, on one occasion during 2010 “to facilitate a client transaction,” according to the filing. The risk position was reduced the following day to comply with the limit, which is one of the gauges Goldman Sachs uses to measure potential trading losses. In 2009, the firm-wide VaR was exceeded on two consecutive days, the filing said.

Although the filing doesn’t say when the VaR limit was exceeded, it includes a graph showing a one-day increase in daily value-at-risk early in the fourth quarter to a high of $223 million from a fourth-quarter range of between about $100 million and $140 million. The average value-at-risk for the year was $134 million, down from $218 million in 2009.

Goldman Sachs changed the way it reports trading revenue in the last quarter of 2010, creating a separate category for so- called “investing and lending” activities that were previously included in trading. Under the new reporting system, the firm’s 2010 trading revenue dropped 33 percent from the previous year, while revenue from investing and lending more than doubled.

Under the new reporting system, Goldman Sachs’s 2009 revenue from fixed income, currencies and commodities was cut by $1.4 billion, or 6.1 percent, from the original figures. The equities division’s revenue increased $950 million, or 9.6 percent, under the new method. The company didn’t provide 2010 results under the original reporting system.

ISM Index of Manufacturing in U.S. Rose to 61.4 in February

U.S. manufacturing accelerated in February to the fastest pace since May 2004, a sign that factories are ramping up production to meet demand.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index increased to 61.4 from 60.8 in January, the Tempe, Arizona- based group said today. Readings greater than 50 signal growth. In Europe, manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in more than 10 years, while the rate of growth at factories in China was the slowest in six months.

Business investment in new equipment is prompting U.S. companies like Eaton Corp. and Deere & Co. to raise profit forecasts as the global economy expands. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress today that while economic growth will pick up, there needs to be a “sustained period of stronger job creation.”

“We anticipate further gains will be seen in manufacturing data,” Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal in New York, said before the report. “The improved pace of domestic business activity will continue over the course of 2011.”

The median estimate called for an increase to 61, according to the Bloomberg survey of 77 economists. Forecasts ranged from 58.7 to 63.3.

Bernanke Sees Temporary Inflation Gain From Commodities

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the surge in oil and other commodity prices probably won’t cause a permanent increase in broader inflation and repeated that borrowing costs are likely to stay low.

Experience with such price gains in recent decades, along with currently stable labor costs, suggests a “temporary and relatively modest increase in U.S. consumer price inflation,” Bernanke said in prepared remarks today for his semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington. He reiterated the Fed’s outlook that while growth will accelerate this year, he still wants to see a “sustained period of stronger job creation.”

The comments suggest the Fed will stay on course to complete $600 billion of Treasury purchases through June in a bid to reduce an unemployment rate persisting at 9 percent or higher for almost two years. Bernanke didn’t say what the Fed’s next step will be after finishing the bond buying under record monetary stimulus that has been criticized by Republicans he’s facing today and tomorrow.

Even with his inflation outlook, “sustained rises in the prices of oil or other commodities would represent a threat both to economic growth and to overall price stability, particularly if they were to cause inflation expectations to become less well anchored,” said Bernanke, 57, a former Princeton University economist. “We will continue to monitor these developments closely and are prepared to respond as necessary to best support the ongoing recovery in a context of price stability.”

Global Economic Calendar (02-March-2011)

Global Economic Calendar for 02nd March 2011

**Time is with respect to Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Fell 2.8% in January

The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes fell in January, a sign the industry that triggered the recession was struggling at the start of 2011.

The index of pending home resales dropped 2.8 percent after a revised 3.2 percent decrease the prior month that was initially reported as a gain, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists called for a 2.3 percent decrease.

Foreclosures that are driving down prices and unemployment at 9 percent signal the housing market may not make much headway this year. Interest rates that are rising pose another challenge to real estate, which may lag behind the rest of the economy this year.

“This is worrying,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “People may be holding back because they think there are more foreclosures coming. We need a strong pickup in jobs to see people buying again.”

Pending home sales were projected to fall after an originally reported gain of 2 percent in December, according to the median of 39 forecasts in the Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 6 percent to an increase of 1.5 percent.

Consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.2 percent in January, less than forecast and the smallest gain since June, as increasing food and fuel prices caused Americans to cut back on other goods and services, Commerce Department figures showed earlier today.