Payrolls Likely Rebounded as U.S. Economy, Weather Improved

Payroll gains in the U.S. probably accelerated in February, spurred by an improving economy and more seasonable temperatures, economists said ahead of a government report today.

Employment increased by 196,000 workers last month, the most since May, after a 36,000 gain in January, when winter storms depressed the count, according to the median forecast of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report may also show the jobless rate increased to 9.1 percent from 9 percent.

Bigger, sustained monthly payroll gains would underscore Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s testimony to Congress this week that there are “grounds for optimism” about the labor market in coming months. Employment growth and the resulting increases in income and confidence are contributing to sales improvements at companies like J.C. Penney Co. and Macy’s Inc. (M)

“The labor market has passed an important threshold and is starting to create a good number of jobs,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “It’s partly a snow-related rebound, but I think there’s some real substance there. We’re looking for jobs to run 200,000 plus in coming months as the recovery reaches the self- sustainable stage.”

The Labor Department figures are due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg payroll survey forecasts ranged from gains of 100,000 to 297,000.