Quickie USD/JPY (23-Nov-2009)

I have posted my latest view on USD/JPY on my Facebook > Click Here!

Update from my previous quickie on USD/JPY.

Update from my previous quickie on the USD/JPY last week can be seen in FaceBook.

Click Here to see it.

So far, it has been well on track with what we saw and study last week.

Posting will be alternating between here and Facebook.

Hello everyone,

I have find that posting is much more effective for my fellow traders but no fear, public still can view my quickie updates from here because, I will attached a link to my related postings in Facebook here :)

Lastest quickie on USD/JPY > Click Here!

Warmest Regards,
Ash Ariffin

Quickie on EURUSD.

EURUSD holds steady just beneath the 1.43-level with interim resistance seen at 1.4330, followed by 1.4360 and 1.44. Subsequent ceilings are eyed at 1.4440, backed by 1.4470 and 1.45. Support is seen at 1.4280, followed by 1.4230 and 1.42. Additional floors will emerge at 1.4150, followed by 1.41 and 1.4070.

Global Events Calendar [24-08-2009] - [28-08-2009]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+8:00).
*Click on it for the enlarged version.

A month of Ramadan. (Fasting month for Muslims)

Today, 22nd August 2009. Marks the first day of the fasting month for Muslims around the globe. The month where participating Muslims refrain from eating, drinking, sexual conduct, smoking, and indulging in anything that is in excess or ill-natured; from dawn until sunset.Ramaḍan is a time to fast for the sake of Allah, and to offer more prayer than usual, showing much gratitude to Allah for what he has given them.

Wishing all Muslims around the world a safe and healthy month of Ramadan.

Hoenig Stirs Debate on Bank Failures as Fed Forum Convenes.

Source: Bloomberg.com

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The host for central bankers attending the Federal Reserve conference this weekend to discuss the financial crisis is a regional Fed chief who’s making waves with his proposal for letting big U.S. banks fail.

Thomas Hoenig, the Kansas City Fed president, will welcome Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and dozens of other central bankers to the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting today. Hoenig said he hopes the gathering will serve as a model for handling crises in the future.

Bernanke has urged Congress to back part of Hoenig’s proposal for dealing with faltering big banks, which would wipe out shareholder equity in any that receive government aid. The Treasury Department’s so-called resolution authority plan, while likely to result in stockholder losses, doesn’t require it.

“Tom is leading the mainstream on this,” said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, now senior economic adviser with New York-based Soleil Securities Corp. “He’s ahead of the curve.”

Hoenig, 62, took office in 1991 and is soon to be the longest-serving Fed policy maker. Out of the 12 regional Fed presidents, he is one of two to have served as a head of bank supervision. Hoenig is tougher than his colleagues on inflation, having dissented from interest-rate votes four times since 1995, always for tighter policy.

Alternative to Bailouts

Companies with weak capital or investor confidence shouldn’t be bailed out, Hoenig said in a private talk in Omaha, Nebraska, in March. He said the government instead should declare them insolvent, replace managers, remove the bad assets and require shareholders to take losses. Hoenig broke from his usual practice of speaking from notes on index cards for non- economic comments and released written text entitled “Too Big Has Failed.”

Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas asked for a copy of the speech after reading a newspaper article about it. He invited Hoenig to testify at an April hearing of the Joint Economic Committee, where Brownback is the ranking Senate Republican. Brownback said he had received “huge numbers of calls” from constituents angry about bank bailouts.

“Tom putting it out there, said, ‘You’re frustrated and you’re mad and there’s a way to address it,’” Brownback said in an interview. “It gave it, I think, a realistic, regulator approach from a respected individual.” He said he would like Hoenig to address lawmakers again this year.

The debate has been fueled by multibillion dollar government rescues of financial companies including Citigroup Inc. and American International Group Inc. Lawmakers in line with Hoenig include Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Banking Committee.

Shifting Risk

“Our regulatory reform effort must place the risk back where it belongs, on the risk takers and not on the taxpayers,” Shelby said in a statement.

Bernanke echoed Hoenig’s views in recent congressional testimony. In July 24 remarks to the House Financial Services Committee, the Fed chief indicated support for the Treasury’s resolution plan while adding that Congress might want to add some constraints such as requiring shareholders to bear losses.

“People are starting to sit up and take notice of his remarks,” said Camden Fine, president of Independent Community Bankers of America, a Washington-based trade group. “It’s influencing the debate.”

Not everybody agrees with Hoenig’s recommendation of setting strict guidelines to handle financial failures.

“You have to trust the authorities with some ability to change the rules when they need to,” said William Isaac, former head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and now chairman of the global financial services unit of LECG Corp., an economic and financial consulting company based in Emeryville, California.

Vigorous Debate

While Hoenig’s plan may not be covered in the formal discussions at Jackson Hole, his fingerprints extend past the brief remarks he delivers: Hoenig approves topics and speakers, with an eye to fostering debate.

“It has to be vigorous,” Hoenig said during an interview in a conference room next to his 14th-floor office at the bank’s new limestone-and-glass headquarters building in Kansas City. “I don’t think we’ll get better if we don’t listen to our critics as well as to those who praise us.”

Scheduled speakers include Bernanke tomorrow, along with Trichet, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, and less- well-known professors such as Carl Walsh of the University of California at Santa Cruz and Ricardo Caballero, chairman of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s economics department.

“I’m hoping that this becomes, in a sense, a lessons- learned and a beginning of a blueprint,” Hoenig said.

Roots in Iowa

Thomas Michael Hoenig grew up in Fort Madison, Iowa, the second of seven children of a plumber and homemaker. After being drafted into the Army and serving in Vietnam, he completed graduate studies in economics at Iowa State University in Ames. Unlike most students, Hoenig was ready with his dissertation topic, bank competition.

“He decided what he wanted to write his dissertation on and came in and told me,” recalled Dudley Luckett, a retired professor who was Hoenig’s adviser.

Hoenig joined the Kansas City Fed as an economist in 1973. He played basketball there with another young economist, Donald Kohn, who’s now the central bank’s vice chairman.

One of Hoenig’s defining experiences occurred in 1982, when he was on the front lines during the failure of Oklahoma City’s Penn Square Bank, which triggered a national banking crisis and helped precipitate the 1984 government takeover of Continental Illinois National Bank & Trust Co.

Principles Approach

“We learned lessons about concentrations of credit,” Hoenig said. That and subsequent events helped shape his view that setting hard rules for banks was better than the so-called principles-based approach, which favors wide-ranging edicts such as treating customers fairly. The U.K.’s financial regulator held itself out as a principles-based regulator until this year.

“There’s nothing in this crisis that I haven’t seen before,” Hoenig said.

Warning about dangers posed by big banks isn’t new for Hoenig. In a 1999 speech, Hoenig said the rise of “mega financial institutions” created a risk of a “less stable and a less efficient financial system” because the government would be reluctant to close troubled companies, creating implicit guarantees for some depositors and creditors.

Hoenig will become the longest-serving Fed policy maker this year when Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern, who has also made a name studying too-big-to-fail, retires.

“I don’t ever recall him being so vocal on a subject like this,” said Douglas Lee, who runs Economics from Washington, a consulting firm in Potomac, Maryland. “He will certainly be a voice that will be listened to.”

Police investigating death of Freddie Mac official...

Source: Mail.com

David Kellermann, the acting chief financial officer of mortgage giant Freddie Mac, was found dead at his home Wednesday morning in what police said was an apparent suicide.

Mary Ann Jennings, director of public information for the Fairfax County, Va., Police Department, said Kellermann was found dead in his Reston, Va., home. The 41-year-old Kellermann has been Freddie Mac's chief financial officer since September.

Jennings said that a crime scene crew and homicide detectives were investigating the death, but that there didn't appear to be any sign of foul play.

McLean-based Freddie Mac has been criticized heavily for reckless business practices that some argue contributed to the housing and financial crisis. Freddic Mac is a government-controlled company that owns or guarantees about 13 million home loans. CEO David Moffett resigned last month.

Freddie Mac and sibling company Fannie Mae, which together own or back more than half of the home mortgages in the country, have been hobbled by skyrocketing loan defaults and have received about $60 billion in combined federal aid.

Kellermann was named acting chief financial officer in September 2008, after the resignation of Anthony "Buddy" Piszel, who stepped down after the September 2008 government takeover. The chief financial officer is responsible for the company's financial controls, financial reporting and oversight of the company's budget and financial planning.

Before taking that job, Kellerman served as senior vice president, corporate controller and principal accounting officer. He was with Freddie Mac for more than 16 years.

Administration seeks to free frozen credit markets...

Source: Mail.com

AP - Monday, 23 March, 2009 10:21:38 PM
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER

The Obama administration took a fresh shot at ending a national paralysis in lending Monday, teaming up with investors to buy bad bank assets and ease credit for hard-pressed consumers and businesses.

The program, announced by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, was not the first such attempt by the new administration to revitalize an economy mired in recession.

Geithner pleaded for patience, saying work to rehabilitate the banking and financial industry has to go forward despite "deep anger and outrage" over bad lending and investment practices.

The newest initiative, he told reporters, will seek to harness government and private resources to purchase an initial half-trillion dollars of bad assets off the balance sheets of banks. And he held out the expectation that the program eventually could grow to $1 trillion

Wall Street seemed to feel rejuvenated, at least at the opening. In late morning, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 221 at 7,500. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 23 at 792, and the Nasdaq composite index is up 42 at 1,500.

But the investor reaction to the administration's initial bank rescue program on Feb. 10 was anything but enthusiastic. Disappointed investors sent the Dow Jones down that day by a whopping 380 points.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Obama administration took a fresh shot at ending a national paralysis in lending Monday, teaming up with investors to buy bad bank assets and ease credit for hard-pressed consumers and businesses.

The program, announced by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, was not the first such attempt by the new administration to revitalize an economy mired in recession.

Geithner pleaded for patience, saying work to rehabilitate the banking and financial industry has to go forward despite "deep anger and outrage" over bad lending and investment practices.

The newest initiative, he told reporters, will seek to harness government and private resources to purchase an initial half-trillion dollars of bad assets off the balance sheets of banks. And he held out the expectation that the program eventually could grow to $1 trillion in purchases.

Apology...

Hey everyone,

I apologise for not informing earlier that I will be on a trading holiday for this Month of March and April. Been busy and taking time out for R&R with my wife and family. With school holidays and everything, been spending a lot of time with my wife and family for BBQs and family quality time :)

With the time spent with my family, I also manage to have a little bit of time, putting things together for my nature of business to enhance benefits for the community.

Everything for this blog will resume as per normal once the month of April ends and a new month of May begins :) I still wish everyone a safe trading profits for the time to come :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Warmest Regards,
Ash Ariffin

Consumer spending rises in Jan, unlikely to last...

Source: Mail.com

Consumer spending rose in January after falling for a record six straight months, pushed higher by purchases of food and other nondurable items. But the increase is expected to be fleeting given all the problems facing the economy.

The Commerce Department said Monday that consumer spending rose 0.6 percent in January, even better than the 0.4 percent gain that economists expected.

Personal incomes rose 0.4 percent in January, partly reflecting the cost-of-living adjustments provided to millions of Social Security recipients. Still, that was better than the 0.2 percent decline economists expected.

The personal savings rate surged to 5 percent, the highest level since 1995 as consumers continued to sock away more of their incomes amid the deepening recession.

The 0.6 percent rise in spending followed a record six straight declines, including a 1 percent drop in December when retailers endured their worst holiday shopping season in at least four decades.

The January increase was driven by a sharp 1.3 percent rise in purchases of nondurable goods led by much higher spending on food. Durable goods posted a tiny 0.1 percent increase, as Americans again avoided spending on cars and other large items.

While the 0.6 percent increase in consumer spending was the largest since May, analysts do not expect the strength to continue amid a recession that's already the longest in a quarter-century.

The cutback in consumer spending has been a key factor making this recession so severe. The government reported last week that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, shrank at an annual rate of 6.2 percent in the final three months of 2008. That was the sharpest fall in about 26 years.

The economic weakness is keeping a lid on inflation. A price gauge tied to consumer spending showed a modest increase of 0.2 percent in January after three straight monthly declines that reflected sharp drops in energy costs. Excluding food and energy, the price gauge rose 0.1 percent in January and has risen only 1.6 percent in the last 12 months.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of total economic activity, was falling at an annual rate of 4.3 percent during the fourth quarter, the biggest drop since the second quarter of 1980.

The 0.4 percent increase in personal incomes followed two months of declines and was somewhat surprising in light of the massive layoffs that have occurred this year. The country lost a net total of 598,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate jumped to a 16-year high of 7.6 percent.

However, January incomes got a boost from the cost-of-living adjustment made to Social Security benefits and a pay raise given to federal civilian and military workers.

The slump in consumer spending in recent months has been tough on many of the nation's retailers. Macy's Inc. last month said its fourth-quarter earnings fell almost 59 percent, while J.C. Penney Co. recorded a 51 percent drop in earnings and projected a wider first-quarter loss than analysts had expected.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, managed to buck the trend. The company reported better-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter as it appeared to benefit from a wave of store liquidations at former competitors such as Circuit City Stores Inc.

My trades for February 2009...

Hello everyone,

These are my trades for February 2009. Click on it for the enlarge image.

Warmest Regards,
Ash Ariffin

My GBP/USD Trade (27-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hey everyone,

My trade on the GBP/USD (27-02-2009).

After how yesterday's price went, my 200ma and Weekly Pivot Point seems to be a strong resistance. I am looking into a little bit of selling today on this pair.

After price action broke the minor support of the morning movements,my MAs are down, Fast MACD is down and my Stochs are down. I placed an order to sell at the price line of 1.4250. My order was filled in like around 20mins at 3:45pm (Singapore Time).

Stop Loss at 1.4285 (35pips) and Target Profit at 1.4175 (75pips). Risk : Reward = 35 : 75 = 1 : 2.14. Why Target Profit at 1.4175? It seems like a good support for the last two days and it is just above today's Pivot S1.

Basically, I didn't look at my trade after I shifted my Stop Loss to entry price during the next hour. When I came back to see on my trade, my Target Profit has been executed at 4:49pm (Singapore Time).

75pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/JPY Trade (24-02-2009) --- Update (Final)

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time



Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hi everyone,

Update from my previous trade.

Link to my previous trade > Click Here.

The course of the price movements. I have since moved my Protective Stop to the price line of 96.60, securing 200pips of profit due to the movements of price today. It is consolidating with a formation that looks like a mini "Head and Shoulder". It is possible that market will go through some correction.

I have been stopped out with my Protective Stop executed at 7:07pm (Singapore Time) with 200pips profit.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/JPY Trade (24-02-2009) --- Position Open

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hi everyone,

My trade on the USD/JPY (24-02-2009).

I am looking for a buy position of all odds on this pair today due to price action for the past few days :)

What made me to look to buy is that in the Weekly chart, there is momentum on the upside with market breaching the 23.6% Fibo Retracement last week. Yesterday, in the Daily chart, a good up trust from the market and looking at how the up trust moved in the Hourly chart, I am putting my odds on looking to buy this pair today.

I opened the buy position at the price line of 94.60 at 10:53am (Singapore Time). It broke the micro trend resistance from the few previous hour. My MAs is healthy, both Fast and Slow MACD pointing upwards and Stochs are healthy as well. Without any hesitation, the trade was opened.

Stop Loss at 94.25 (35pips) and Target Profit at 97.40 (280pips). Risk : Reward = 35 : 280 = 1 : 8. Why 97.40 as my Target Profit? It is the high of 24-11-2008 and it is just below today's Pivot R3.

As of now, I am around 130pips in the money and I have closed half of the position at 95.96 with 136pips profit at 9:35pm (Singapore Time) :) I am letting the other half float. Stop Loss has been shifted to Protective Stop at 95.60 (100pips).

Will definitely update when this trade is fully closed.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/CHF Trade (23-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hello everyone,

My trade on the USD/CHF (23-09-2009).

After how dramatically the market closes last Friday, I was looking forward to such commitment today for continuation. To much disappointment, there weren't any. There was no commitment from sellers in this particular pair of currency.

What did happened is that buyers were fighting the market and a strong price rejection happened and it created a double-bottom chart pattern formation and after than, there was an up close candle which shows buyers commitment. I initiated a long position at the price line of 1.1540 at 4:40pm (Singapore Time). My Stochs is in line with what I saw.

Stop Loss at 1.1510 (30pips) and Target Profit at 1.1630 (90pips). Why 1.1630 as my Target Profit? Using Fibo, this price line is just above the 38.2%, above today's Pivot Point and it is my Weekly Pivot point.

Trade was close when it hit my Target Profit at 6:48pm (Singapore Time). 90pips profit for this trade.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My AUD/USD Trade (19-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time


Ignore the red and blue arrows on the chart.
Those are not my trades done. It is just analysis purposes.

Hello people,

My trade on the AUD/USD (19-02-2009).

I was expecting a buy opportunity due to analysis of Daily chart and how yesterday's price movements closes compared to the day before.

So, I initiated a buy position at the price line of 0.6416 at 11:06am (Singapore Time). There was a little risk that the market might be stuck in a range bound trading but I was more confident on the double-bottom, compliment by my MAs, Fast and Slow MACDs and Stochs. My entry price was initiated as close as possible to the MAs.

My Stop Loss was at 0.6386 (30pips) and Target Profit at 0.6480 (64pips). Risk : Reward = 1 : 2.13. Why Target Profit at 0.6480? It is just above today's Pivot R2 and this price line appears to be quite sensitive for the historical price movements in one hour chart.

Shifted Stop Loss to entry price when I was around 30pips in the money. Then to the high of the 7:00am (GMT) candle when 9:00am (GMT) starts.

Target Profit was executed at 6:11pm (Singapore Time). 64pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Sterling Outlook (18-Feb-2009)...

Source: DailyFX.com

The GBP/USD opened in Asia around 1.4240 after a steady US session that followed a volatile London session. Unlike yesterday, the Asian session was extremely quiet today with little in the way of flows. The GBP/USD traded up to 1.4269 at one stage when the USD/JPY led the USD broadly lower, but there was little follow-through and the pairing settled back around the opening 1.4240 level for the balance of the session.

The EUR/GBP grinded a bit higher during the Asian session after a major bank put out a buy recommendation on the cross. The EUR/GBP traded up to 0.8845 after opening the session around 0.8835.

Sentiment towards the USD remains bullish and is likely to continue that way while the deep concerns over the global banking sector persist. The GBP is vulnerable to financial sector concerns and was one of the reasons some are recommending selling the GBP even at these depressed levels.

As we all have witnessed in the recent past, any relief rally in the banking sector can set off a vicious correction higher for the GBP/USD. UK CBI will be released later today.

My USD/JPY Trade (11-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Hey everyone,

My trade on the USD/JPY (11-02-2009).

After the whole day of movements, I see in the charts that this pair was not able to provide any movements downwards. I did not pluck this analysis out of thin air. From the charts, it showed that beginning of the day, it hovered for awhile before breaking downwards continuation but, a big but, it was not able to break below today's Pivot Point S1.

I waited for price action and I went in to initiate a buy position at the price line of 90.088 at 09:37pm (Singapore Time). This trade was initiated with regards to purely on price action (how price hovered above the S1 support and how the trade was entered when it broke the "mini tweezer top" of the hovering price) and ignoring my MAs but my Fast MACD and Stochs was in line. A very risky trade but a well calculated one.

My Stop Loss at 89.7088 (30pips) and Target Profit at 90.54 (46pips). Risk : Reward = 1 : 1.53. I am being very conservative and that is the reason why I have chosen my Target Profit at the price line of 90.54 which is the high of today's morning trading.

Since this trade was placed with a very tight Target Profit and Stop Loss, it was closed at 12:52am (Singapore Time) with my Target Profit executed. A very fast trade done. I rarely do this kind of trades unless I am sure of it.

46pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Negotiations intensify on final stimulus plan...

Source: Mail.com

Negotiators for Congress and the White House have tentatively settled on a $790 billion price tag on President Barack Obama's economic stimulus bill and are working to narrow differences on individual elements of the bill.

After unofficial talks stretching into the late evening on Tuesday, officials announced a formal meeting of negotiators for mid-afternoon in the Capitol as they try to get a bill to Obama's desk for signing by week's end.

Democratic aides said that Obama's negotiating team had prevailed in restoring some lost funding for school construction projects during talks Tuesday, and had also increased aid to state governments above the $39 billion approved in a compromise with a handful of Senate GOP moderates.

Obama's "Making Work Pay" tax credit would be reduced from $500 per worker to $400, with couples eligible for an $800 credit, instead of $1,000, said a Democratic aide close to the talks. This aide spoke on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are private.

Earlier Tuesday, the Senate sailed to approval of its $838 billion economic stimulus bill, but with only three moderate Republicans signing on and then demanding the bill's cost go down when the final version emerges from negotiations.

Negotiators initially were working with a target of about $800 billion for the final bill, lawmakers said. But GOP moderate Arlen Specter, R-Pa., said Tuesday night on MSNBC's "Hardball" that he was insisting on a figure at around $780 billion.

Baucus had said earlier that $35.5 billion to provide a $15,000 homebuyer tax credit, approved in the Senate last week, would be cut back. There was also pressure to reduce a Senate-passed tax break for new car buyers, according to Democratic officials.

Asked about the timing of a final deal, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs on Wednesday cautiously said "I don't want to disrupt the delicateness by laying down anything or predicting." But he told The Associated Press that negotiators were "making good progress."

"Time's growing short," said Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, as she walked into the latest in a series of meetings with a small group of Senate moderates whose votes are essential to passage of the bill.

Wednesday's meeting built on a series of negotiations Tuesday in which White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and other top Obama aides met in the Capitol with Democratic leaders as well as moderate senators from both parties whose support looms as crucial for any eventual agreement.

House Democratic leaders promised to fight to restore some of $16 billion for school construction cut by the Senate. Those funds could create more than 100,000 jobs, according to Will Straw, an economist at the liberal Center for American Progress.

In another development, Obama announced Wednesday that Caterpillar's chief executive told him the company will rehire some of the 22,000 workers it laid off last month, if the stimulus bill passes. The heavy equipment maker can be expected to benefit as highway construction funds begin to flow.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., acknowledged Wednesday that finding an agreement on differences over tax cuts and aid to states and localities will be difficult.

"We're going to have to resolve those differences. Simply talking about what we need to do is not going to be very effective if we don't do it," he said in an interview on the Fox News Channel.

The moderate senators -- Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine and Specter -- are demanding that the final House-Senate compromise resemble the Senate measure, which devotes about 42 percent of its $838 billion in debt-financed costs to tax cuts, including Obama's signature $500 tax credit for 95 percent of workers, with $1,000 going to couples.

The $820 billion House measure is about one-third tax cuts.

Collins said last week she won't vote for any final bill exceeding $800 billion in spending and tax cuts. Specter warned that the Senate bill must stay "virtually intact."

The GOP moderates also want the final bill to retain a $70 billion Senate plan to patch the alternative minimum tax, or AMT, for one year. The provision would make sure 24 million families won't get socked with unexpected tax bills during the 2010 filing season.

The AMT was designed 40 years ago to make sure wealthy people pay at least some tax, but it is updated for inflation each year to avoid tax increases averaging $2,300 a year. Fixing the annual problems now allows lawmakers to avoid difficult battles down the road, but economists say the move won't do much to lift the economy.

House leaders are tempering expectations that they'll restore many of the cuts.

"You cannot allow the perfect to be the enemy of the effective and of the necessary, and we will not," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

While they're fighting to preserve cuts to Obama priorities, Specter is fighting to preserve an enormous $10 billion increase for the National Institutes of Health, while Collins obtained $870 million for community health centers in talks last week.

World stocks fall on skepticism over US bank plan...

Source: Mail.com

World stock markets were mostly lower Wednesday following a steep sell-off on Wall Street, as investors reacted with skepticism to the U.S. government's latest plan to rescue the ailing financial industry with as much as $2 trillion in funding.

By noon in mainland Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was down 0.04 percent at 4,211.30 and France's CAC 40 slipped 0.3 percent at 3,013.28. Germany's DAX scraped into positive territory and was up 0.1 percent at 4,511.95.

Across Europe, bank stocks dragged down market indexes. Credit Suisse dropped as much as 8.3 percent after Switzerland's second biggest bank reported a fourth-quarter net loss of 6 billion Swiss francs ($5.61 billion), much worse than markets were expecting, as both asset management and investment banking lost money amid the financial turmoil.

Nearly ever major market in Asia retreated, further hurt by new figures showing China's exports plunged 17.5 percent in January -- the sharpest drop in more than a decade.

As in the U.S., investors across Asian and Europe questioned whether the revamped bailout program, unveiled Tuesday by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, would be enough to absorb the bad assets saddling bank balance sheets and free up frozen credit markets for consumers and businesses.

"It's fair to say that the latest version of the bailout plan in the U.S. was greeted with some disappointment, simply because there was a complete lack of detail which was what investors were hoping for," said Richard Hunter, head of UK equities at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers in London. "Certainly in drawing a line once and for all over toxic assets, the markets will be waiting for further detail from the U.S. authorities."

He added that disappointed investors had been "going back to more risk averse instruments, such as U.S. Treasuries and gold."

Geithner said the plan to get trillions of dollars in financing flowing through the world's largest economy was urgently needed as part of the government's effort to stave off "catastrophic failure" of institutions. A centerpiece involves the government teaming with the private sector to buy up to $1 trillion in souring assets from financial firms. A separate lending program would be expanded to as much as $1 trillion from $200 billion for consumers and businesses.

But officials were short on specifics about how exactly the public-private partnership might work, analysts said.

Garry Evans, a chief Asian equity strategist with HSBC in Hong Kong, called the plan "muddled." He said the government was skirting around what many investors have already concluded: that the U.S. may have to nationalize the banks for a period.

"They have still philosophically backed away from the ultimate conclusion, which is the government will have to take over financial institutions," he said. "Philosophically that's quite hard for the U.S. government to admit, but the history of banking crises shows that is what governments usually do."

Not even the colossal amounts of money announced in the U.S. are likely to make up the funding shortfall created by the risky mortgage securities and other distressed assets banks are holding, said Paul Schulte, a chief Asia equity strategist at Nomura International in Hong Kong.

The financial hole could be as big as $4 trillion, but U.S. officials have yet to fully explain the scope of the problem, he said.

"The problem is much larger than people thought and the solutions to this much larger problem are still not coherent," Schulte said. "The plan is absolutely a step in the right direction, but we have like 45 more steps to go."

While recouping some of their losses, most Asian markets closed down. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng tumbled 341.43 points, or 2.5 percent, to 13,539.21, while South Korea's Kospi lost 8.69, or 0.7 percent, to 1,190.18. Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday.

Elsewhere, benchmarks in Australia and India fell 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent.

In mainland China, Shanghai's main stock measure sank about 0.2 percent in a choppy session after news of last month's fall in exports, the third straight month of declines.

The collapse in global demand for Chinese textiles, toys and other goods are devastating export-dependent coastal areas. The figures add to the threat of more job losses and increase pressure on Beijing to boost slumping economic growth.

U.S. stock futures pointed to a slightly higher start after markets plummeted the day before as investors soured on the financial rescue. Dow futures were up 0.6 percent at 7,918 and Standard and Poor's futures were up 0.6 percent at 831.

On Tuesday, the Dow industrials fell 381.99, or 4.62 percent, to 7,888.88. Broader stock indicators also tumbled, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index down 42.73, or 4.91 percent, to 827.16. It was the biggest drop for the index since the Obama inauguration on Jan. 20.

In oil, light sweet crude for March delivery rose 44 cents to $37.99 a barrel in European trade. The contract fell $2.01 to settle at $37.55 overnight.

My USD/CHF Trade (09-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Hello everybody,

My first trade for the week. Pair chosen is the USD/CHF. Why this particular pair? It is because from last week's close, it was unable to clear above 1.1714 and market didn't have any momentum left on the upside. So, for this morning, I had been looking for a sell for this pair.

To be honest, I didn't look at the charts the whole of today because I want to refrain myself from unnecessary trading and on top of that, I had something to attend to. When I came home around 05:00pm (Singapore Time), I saw market had an upward move but it was unable to sustain with the high of 1.1677. It is also unable to break today's Pivot Point level at 1.1657.

At that point of time, I was at the right place at the right time because my MAs are down, Long MACD is down and Stochs was crossing down. I finally, initiate a short position at the price line of 1.1624 at 07:24pm (Singapore Time) after I was convince and sure of everything I see in the charts. Why do I need the extra convincing work? It is because I am deciding whether to or not to break my trading rules. Price is approaching my Weekly Pivot line and today's Pivot Point S1 but the chart pattern of a lower high and price action movements gives me the extra confidence.

My Stop Loss at 1.1654 (30pips) and Target Profit at 1.1510 (114pips). Risk : Reward = 30 : 114 = 1 : 3.8. Why my Target Profit at that price? It is above today's Pivot Point S2 which happens to be a good support in the daily charts. With what I've analyse, I didn't want to push my luck.

Shortly after placing my trade, I went out for dinner with my wife and run a few errands. I came home around 11:20pm (Singapore Time). My trade has been closed with my Target Profit executed at 10:24pm (Singapore Time).

114pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My AUD/USD Trade (03-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Hey everyone,

My trade today on the AUD/USD.

Initiated a buy position at 02:39pm (Singapore Time). Expecting a continuation from the market after upward movement in the morning. Although at my point of entry, my Stochs are turning down but my MAs are above, Long and Fast MACD are above. Plus market momentum was dieing off.

Initiated a buy position at the price line of 0.6364. Stop Loss at 0.6334(30pips) and Target Profit at 0.6415(51pips) which is near to today's high and it seems like a strong resistance level. Risk : Reward = 30 : 51 = 1 : 1.7.

As priced moved higher, around 20pips in the money. I had decided to shift my Stop Loss to Protective Stop at entry price. Being very conservative.

This trade was closed at my entry price at 05:23pm (Singapore Time). 0pips profit for this trade :)

Peace and trade safely everyone...

My USD/JPY Trade (02-02-2009) --- Position Squared

*Click on the images for the enlarged version.

Trade Ticket time displayed is based on US Eastern Time

Hi everyone,

I apologise for not posting any of my trades for quite sometime, the reason being, I felt lazy :P Hahaha! At any point of time, any trader will always have the highest tendency to feel lazy. On top of that, whenever I am lazy to post my trades, I will not post at all because I do not like doing things half-way. When I do it, I want to give my best.

Anyway, let's start. By looking at how market ends last week, I told myself this week will be quite tricky. Believe me, I woke up at 7am (Singapore Time), today, 02-02-2009, on a Monday morning to kick start my analysis and to see how the Asian Indices and Stock market were behaving.

Early morning, Nikkei 225, had a negative opening and and it stayed that way the whole morning. With this, I switch to USD/JPY chart to monitor what is and what will happen. According to my chart (attached image), the daily pivot point was holding up quite well and after the down close at the 3am (GMT Time) candle, I have set my mind to be on a sellers side of the story and because my Weekly Pivot has been breached on the down side.

I initiate a short position at 3:47pm (Singapore Time). A minor support line just below the Weekly Pivot has been breached and I waited to execute my mentioned trade at the price line of 89.49. With Moving Averages on the downside, my Long MACD is down and my Stochs decides to turn back on the downside. Stop Loss at 89.79 (30pips) and Target Profit at 88.85 (64pips). Risk : Reward = 30 : 64 = 1 : 2.13. Reason for my target profit, being there is a double-bottom chart formation under Weekly Chart, I do not want to push my luck too far :P I am a conservative trader. Hence, my target profit was placed at the price line of 88.85 which is just above my Weekly Pivot for last week and coincidentally it is near to Daily Pivot Support 2.

As price moved lower and closes at the price line of 89.35 at the end of the hour, I shifted my Stop Loss to Protective Stop at entry price and as price goes lower and the Daily Pivot Support 1 has been breached, I shifted my Protective Stop to 10pips in the money.

This trade was closed at 05:02pm (Singapore Time) when my Target Profit was hit. 64pips profit for this trade.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

US ECON: Dec Consumer Spending Down 1.0%, Core PCE Unchanged...

Source: DailyFX.com

Consumer spending fell more than expected in December, by 1.0%, while the Fed's preferred measure of inflation was flat for the month and hit a five-year low 1.7% over the last 12 months. Consumer spending has now fallen for six straight months, the first such even since the Commerce Department began tracking the data in 1959.

For calendar year 2008, personal spending rose just 3.6%, the smallest gain since 1961. After adjusting for inflation, real consumer spending fell 0.5%, consistent with the observation in Friday's Q4 GDP report.

On top of December's 1.0% drop in consumer spending, Commerce today also revised November spending lower to a 0.8% decline, from the 0.4% decline it initially reported. Economists were expecting a 0.9% drop in December (IFR called it correctly at 1.0%).

Personal income fell 0.2%, better than the 0.4% decline economists were expecting. But Commerce revised November's decline in personal income to a 0.4% drop from the 0.2% drop it first reported. Disposable personal income fell 0.2% in December, but after adjusting for inflation and taxes, real disposable income rose 0.3%.

Inflation as measured by the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which excludes food and energy, was flat in December as expected. The core PCE index has been flat since October, though slightly negative for the last two months when taken out to three significant digits. The headline PCE price index fell 0.5%.

The core PCE "deflator" is up 1.7% over the last 12 months, just under the 1.9% gain expected. That's the lowest 12-month gain in core PCE since January 2004.

Private employers paid their workers $23.5 bln less in December than they did in November. Payrolls were down in all categories except the public sector, where government wage and salary disbursements rose $2.3 bln.

The personal savings rate for December was 3.6%, the highest since May 2008. The personal savings rate has been above 1.0% in seven of the last eight months, and has averaged about 2.5% over that period. We noted in our preview of today's data that a fundamental shift in consumer spending is underway that could take a decade to mature.

My trades for January 2009...

Hello everyone,

These are my trades for January 2009. Click on it for the enlarge image.

Warmest Regards,
Ash Ariffin

USD Rallies following FOMC...

Source: Forexnews.com

The dollar rallied sharply following the FOMC’s monetary policy announcement, surging from 1.3280 against the euro to just above the 1.31-figure and jumping to 90.75 versus the yen.

The Fed left monetary policy unchanged at its current range of 0%-0.25%, saying that “economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time”. The FOMC delivered a somber assessment of the economy; attributing the weakness to steep declines in industrial production, housing, and employment; thus prompting a retrenchment of spending by consumers and businesses. Although the Fed anticipates a rebound in the economy later in the year, it deems the downside risks as significant. Further, given the limited scope the Fed has to shift interest rates lower, it reiterated its stance to expand the quantity of agency debt and mortgaged-backed securities purchases to support the mortgage and housing markets. The FOMC also anticipates inflation pressures to remain subdued over the coming quarters.

US economic data will be the focus for the Thursday session, with the calendar consisting of weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders and new home sales. Weekly jobless claims are seen falling slightly to 580k from a week earlier at 589k, while December durable goods orders are estimated to post a 2.0% decline versus a 1.5% drop in the previous month. New home sales in December are forecasted to ease to 400k units, compared with 407k units a month earlier.

Stocks jump on reports of plan for bad bank assets...

Source: Mail.com

Financial stocks led Wall Street higher Wednesday on investor hopes the Obama administration will create banks to absorb the bad assets weighing down the financial system.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index, a benchmark for the overall stock market, rose for the fourth straight session.

Investors have been worrying that banks won't be able to resume more normal lending without somehow dumping or walling off the bad debt that is corroding their balance sheets. And the economy can't recover from a yearlong recession without improvements in lending and consumer confidence.

Bank shares jumped on the news: Wells Fargo & Co. gained 18 percent, Citigroup Inc. jumped 17 percent and Bank of America added 15 percent.

Investors are also more upbeat as the House nears a vote on an $825 billion stimulus plan that contains a mix of new spending and tax cuts. Wall Street is hopeful that and other measures will help free the economy from its worst recession in decades.

Wall Street's focus on Washington is divided between Capitol Hill and the Federal Reserve, which is all but certain to leave its federal funds rate at a record low Wednesday to try to help the economy by making it cheaper to borrow money.

It's unclear whether the central bank might take any new steps to help the economy, however. In December, the Fed took the unprecedented step of slashing its key rate from 1 percent to a range of zero to 0.25 percent. The Fed's statement announcing any actions, and its assessment of the economy, is due at 2:15 p.m. EST.

In the first hour of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 97.17, or 1.19 percent, to 8,271.90.

Broader stock indicators also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index jumped 15.49, or 1.83 percent, to 861.20, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 28.18, or 1.87 percent, to 1,533.88.

Bill Dwyer, chief investment officer at MTB Investment Advisors in Baltimore, said any steps Washington can take to revive the economy could help the market. He said the plan to help neutralize bad bank assets could speed a recovery.

"We aren't really going to see any great economic news anytime soon so if there is any positive movement in Washington toward the problem that would stabilize the decline," he said.

Wells Fargo jumped $2.94, or 18 percent, to $19.13 after the company reported it booked big write-downs to reduce is exposure to the risky assets of Wachovia Corp. and added to its reserves for future losses. Wells Fargo acquired Wachovia on Dec. 31.

Other banks charged higher on the notion that Washington could vacuum up some of their bad debt. Citigroup Inc. rose 62 cents, or 17 percent, to $4.17, while Bank of America Corp. rose 95 cents, or 15 percent, to $7.45. State Street Corp. surged $5.07, or 26 percent, to $24.69.

USD Edges Higher, Awaits FOMC...

Source: ForexNews.com


The major currencies relinquished earlier gains versus the greenback in the New York session as safe haven flows propped up the dollar. The euro slid from 1.3328 to 1.3120 following dismal economic data from the US. The Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level on record in January, dropping to 37.7 and missing estimates for an improvement to 39 from a revised 38.6 a month earlier.

The Case-Shiller home price index also deteriorated, with the monthly figure in November down by 2.2% and the annualized reading declining by 18.2%. Meanwhile, the January Richmond Fed survey improved, with the composite manufacturing index rising to -49 versus -55 a month earlier and the services revenue index improving to -19 from -30 in December.

The FOMC kicked off its two-day monetary policy meeting today and is scheduled to announce the results on Wednesday at 2:15pm. With interest rates hovering near zero, markets will focus more closely on the accompanying statement for the Fed’s assessment on the economy and projections for growth and inflation.

Another issue to be closely scrutinized will be whether Fed Chairman Bernanke addressed the topic of inflation targeting. The minutes from the previous meeting hinted at that possibility, when it suggested providing greater clarity on the Fed’s goals for inflation.

Euro Outlook ...

Source: DailyFX.com

Into the North American return and should EUR/USD manage to cement a drop back into the 1.28s then the intraday lows will come back into sight. However, option dealers are quick to note the presence of intraday 1.2850 expiries, that could help support the pair into the 15:00 GMT NY cut.

FX OPTIONS: 1 Year Cable Risk Reversal Paid...

Source: DailyFX.com

The 1 Year Cable 25 delta risk reversal was recently offered and Paid at 3.0 for the GBP puts. This follows in the wake of the well hyped French name demand for back dated vols, which saw the 1 year atmf lifted 19.75 and 20.0 today. Closer in - the 1 month atmf tenor has traded highs last seen in early Dec" at 25.0.

EUR/USD: Toying With Notion Of Another 1.28 Test...

Source: DailyFX.com

EUR/USD has ducked marginally lower since the North American return but the pair is yet to significantly retest the 1.28s. Only a push below the 1.2860 European lows, the 1.2850 option expiry level and the 1.2845 intraday lows will elicit fresh follow-through to the outlook.

FX OPTIONS: 1 Month USD/JPY Vol paid 20.5 as Spot Losses Eyed...

Source: DailyFX.com

Despite spot USD/JPY being confined to a range above 90.00 this week, implied vols in the front end of the curve have gained ground. The benchmark 1 month atmf contract is up around 1.5 since Monday"s open to trade 20.5 in early New York today. JPY strength in the crosses - especially against GBP (which has been hit hard across the board this week) and subsequent vol gains there, have lent support to prices in the headline. Also of note are the well hyped 90.00 option expiries due to roll off in USD 7bln tomorrow. These have been keeping spot tied to rates above the strike of late, but their passing could well trigger a slump below.

USD/CAD: Little Reaction To BoC Cut

Source: DailyFX.com

With the BoC cutting just 50bp as discounted by FX traders, USD/CAD has tried to break north, but run into heavy resistance ahead of 1.2700. The high was 1.2695, and traders note corporate sell orders scattered between 1.2685/25 retarding topside progress. Spot has oscillated between 1.2650//75 since topping out, with traders somewhat ambivalent. The 24-hr M/A is at 1.2575, and traders are in buy dips mode between there and the top of the normal distribution channel on the hourlies at 1.2620. Overbought hourly Bollingers at 1.2715/65 give the topside some room to breath if spec types want to try and push it; oversold way down at 1.2385/1.2430 look way out of reach for now. Option expires this morning at 1.2500 and 1.2600 were expected to drag prices lower, but the BoC news though expected, is overshadowing them.

Euro Retreats on ECB Cut...

Source: Forexnews.com

The ECB, as largely expected, cut its benchmark lending rate by 50-basis points to 2.0%, its lowest level in 3-years. The euro was initially higher following the decision, rallying past the 1.32-handle, but subsequently relinquishing the 1.31-level to fall toward 1.3060.

Bank President Trichet raised the prospects for additional ECB rate cuts over the coming months in his press conference today. Trichet tempered expectations for a move in February but left the door open for another rate cut in March. He offered a downbeat assessment on the Eurozone economy, expecting weakness to persist in the coming quarters, with risks to growth on the downside.

EURUSD will encounter support at 1.3030, followed by 1.30 and 1.2950. Additional floors are seen at 1.29, backed by 1.2860 and 1.2830. On the upside, gains will target resistance at 1.3080, 1.3120 and 1.3170. Subsequent ceilings are seen at 1.32, backed by 1.3240 and 1.3270.

EUR Slumps on ECB Rate Cut...

Source: Forexnews.com

The greenback was higher against the euro in the Thursday session on a combination of mixed US economic reports and a 50-basis point rate cut by the ECB. Weekly jobless claims were higher than expected, jumping past the 500k figure to 524k and up from a week earlier at 467k.

The NY Fed manufacturing survey improved by more than anticipated to -22.2 in January, versus -25.76 from a month earlier. The Philadelphia Fed business survey improved by more than expected to -24.3 in January versus -36.1 a month earlier.

Economic reports in the coming session include December CPI, industrial production, and net TIC flows.

US TECHS: S&P Outlook; Ringing in Q4 Earnings - Old News...

Source: DailyFX.com

There is no data on Monday but Alcoa kicks off the Q4 earnings parade - announcing after the close and kicking off what is expected to be a very ugly earnings season. The aluminum maker announced plans this week to eliminate 15,000 jobs, close plants, sell assets and cut capital expenditures by 50% to cope with the global economic slump.

In addition S&P placed its credit ratings on review for a possible downgrade based on concerns about the poor operating environment from depressed aluminum prices. Consensus estimates peg EPS at a loss of ($0.05) per share. Later in the week (Thursday) Intel Corp, will post Q4 earnings. Intel added to the weight in equities last week by cutting another $500 mln from its Q4 revenue projections which it expects to drop 20% to $8.2 bln compared with Q3 2008 and to be down 23% from a year ago.

However the upcoming earnings parade is old news and what the equity markets now yearn for is guidance - be it revenue, margin or profit - as no one really has a handle on what the global economic environment will provide. The equity complex on Friday did an about face from the previous trade of shrugging off/rallying on bad news.

SPH did close below the bottom of the triangle and mid Bollinger band, both near 891 and currently rests above another up-sloping trend line at 874. We generally see the 870s as support and wonder aloud if SPH will spend a few days below the flat, meandering mid Bollinger for a few days as it did during the December 22 week, only to pop back above. For upside traction SPH needs to clear 892.

EUR/USD: Still Pivoting 1.3400 Option Expiry & 10-HMA Line...

Source: DailyFX.com

Heading deeper into the North American morning and EUR/USD still sits close to the 10-HMA line at 1.3402. Coincidentally option dealers note the 1.3400 option expires for the impending NY cut at 15:00 GMT, that could gravitate spot prices into the cut-off.

USD/JPY might be extending its sell-off but this is adding pressure to EUR/JPY so for the moment there is little need for the headline pair to snap any higher. Should EUR/JPY again fail to break below 120 then this will add upward potential to EUR/USD into the European closes.

Citigroup director Robert Rubin resigns as adviser...

Source: Mail.com

Citigroup board member Robert Rubin, who has drawn heavy criticism for his role at the embattled bank, has resigned as a senior adviser.

Rubin, 70, will continue to serve as a board director until his term expires at the next annual meeting in the spring, Citigroup said.

As Citigroup's stock plunged over the past year, the veteran of Wall Street and Washington came under fire from critics who believed he should have had a more active role in preventing the bank's recent problems. Citi's predicament drove it in November to seek federal assistance.

A person at Citi close to the situation, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak for Rubin, said "there was no inside pressure" for Rubin to leave Citigroup. "It was his feeling that the time was right," the person said. He added that there was no government pressure, either.

Rubin was U.S. Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton. For several decades before that, he worked at the Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs Group Inc. But his experience didn't keep Citigroup from taking on a massive amount of risk that relied on the housing market staying afloat.

"Robert Rubin, in my opinion, spent a decade neglecting his duties as a director, just judging by their performance," said Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics. "It's the job of the board to supervise the managers."

"He had embraced a riskier strategy for a bank that was ... already a high-risk bank," Whalen said.

Citigroup was hit particularly hard by the housing market downturn because the bank was heavily invested in mortgages and other loans. The company has reported four straight quarters of losses, and is expected to post yet another loss when it releases fourth-quarter results later this month.

Even before the economy started tanking, many shareholders had complained that Citigroup was too huge, and lagging its peers. Calls for a breakup have been going on for years, and have grown louder now that the government has had to pump so much money into the ailing company.

Citigroup is reportedly in talks with another bank, Morgan Stanley, to merge its own wealth management business -- Smith Barney -- with Morgan Stanley's. According to media reports Friday, Morgan Stanley would have the majority stake in the new entity.

If Morgan Stanley ends up buying Smith Barney, it "sounds like the beginning of a liquidation," Whalen said.

"Citi is under enormous pressure to downsize right now," said Bert Ely, a banking industry consultant in Alexandria, Va. After Citigroup received an extra dose of government funding in November, he said, "my sense is that the pressure has been increasing to accelerate the process."

So far, Citigroup has gotten $45 billion in cash investment by the Treasury Department, and a government backstop for up to $306 billion in loans and securities backed by mortgages.

Over the past six months, Rubin has slowly pared back his role at Citigroup, after serving as chairman for about a month following the ouster of former chairman and CEO Charles Prince in November 2007. Win Bischoff became Citi's chairman in December 2007, and investment banking head Vikram Pandit became CEO.

In August 2008, Rubin gave up his title as head of the board's executive committee, and became a "senior counselor" instead.

Leaving Citigroup, where he has worked for nearly 10 years, "is not a decision that I have come to lightly," Rubin said in a letter released by the bank. "But as I enter my 70s and with all that is now in place at Citi, I believe the time has come for me to make these changes."

He also wrote: "My great regret is that I and so many of us who have been involved in this industry for so long did not recognize the serious possibility of the extreme circumstances that the financial system faces today."

Citigroup shares fell 41 cents, or 5.7 percent, to $6.75. Morgan Stanley shares were up 24 cents to $19.06.

U.S. Stocks Drop on Retail Forecasts; Wal-Mart, Macy’s Slump...

Source: Bloomberg.com

U.S. stocks slid for a second day after retailers from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to Macy’s Inc. said profit will trail forecasts as the recession limited holiday spending and sent jobless claims to a 26-year high.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s biggest retailer, tumbled 8.6 percent, while Macy’s, the second-largest U.S. department- store chain, lost as much as 4.1 percent. Clothing retailers Limited Brands Inc. and Gap Inc. retreated after reducing their profit outlooks. Sun Microsystems Inc. fell 7.9 percent as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended selling the shares on “deteriorating fundamentals.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.6 percent to 900.94 at 9:40 a.m. in New York and is down 0.3 percent in 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.9 percent to 8,694.12. The VIX, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500, climbed for a second day after retreating for five straight sessions.

“Things look really, really bleak right now,” said Tom Wirth, senior investment officer at Chemung Canal Trust Co. in Elmira, New York, which manages $1.4 billion. “We knew the fourth quarter was absolutely horrid and now we’re getting confirmation of that. Between now and mid-spring, I think we’re going to see the market in flux and not making much progress.”

Stocks fell on three of four days this week as the recession forced the biggest U.S. companies to acknowledge that forecasts made last year were too optimistic. The five-quarter slump in profits at S&P 500 companies is projected to last two full years before a rebound in the second half of 2009, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Jobless Claims

The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits rose to 4.6 million, the most since 1982, the Labor Department said, even as initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 24,000 to 467,000 in the week that ended Jan. 3. A report tomorrow will show the U.S. lost jobs for a 12th straight month in December, economists forecast.

The jobless-claims report comes hours before President-elect Barack Obama delivers a speech on the economic outlook in a bid to build support for his stimulus plan. In excerpts of the speech he’s scheduled to give today at 11 a.m. New York time in Fairfax, Virginia, Obama says that while the cost of his economic recovery plan will add to a deficit already projected to exceed $1 trillion, he “won’t just throw money at our problems.”

Obama warned that without immediate steps by the government to revive the economy, family incomes will drop, the unemployment rate could reach “double digits” and the U.S. risks losing a “generation of potential and promise.”

The S&P 500 has slumped 39 percent since the start of 2008 amid more than $1 trillion in credit losses and writedowns at financial firms worldwide and the first simultaneous recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan since World War II.

Important Announcement...

Hello everyone,

I have to make a public announcement to clear my name. Yes, I admit that I was a student from an organisation called Momentum Asia. On top of that, I was one of their trading mentor from May 2007 till March 2008. I have left the organisation on my own personal note.

As to date, I am no longer a student of theirs and I am not affiliated to them in any way. I was surprised when a fellow friend of mine came up to me and said that my name is on their website. They have been using my name on their website for their marketing purposes and do take note, they have kicked me out of their forum for no reason provided to me. They can't even spell my name right.

I am not judging them in any manner but it is up to you to do your own judgement. They kicked me out of their forum and yet they are using my name for their marketing purposes. How can I be affiliated with them when I am not involved in their organisation and not even a member of their forum? A question that even I am surprised!

All that I have to say is that, if you are seriously looking for a mentor out there. Just be extra cautious, not all of them are sincere. Even if they do, make sure they stay that way, if not, go away and find another one. I have more than one mentor but sad to say only one of them lost his/her direction as a mentor.

Their website with my name (Which they can't even spell it right) and do take note, most of the testimonials there which some of them I personally know and verified with, are FAKE!:

1) http://www.cosmomentum.com/?View=20

Warmest Regards,
Ash Ariffin

Stocks fall on fresh evidence of economic woes...

Source: Mail.com

Stocks fell sharply Wednesday, as a handful of bleak profit outlooks and more evidence of escalating unemployment served as stark reminders that the economy remains in rough shape. The Dow Jones industrials dropped more than 180 points.

Underscoring investors' growing fears that 2009 is shaping up to be a difficult year for many sectors, Time Warner and Intel on Wednesday issued disappointing guidance.

Time Warner Inc. said it expects to record a fourth-quarter $25 billion impairment charge for its cable, publishing and AOL units that will lead to an operating loss for the period and a loss for the full year. It had expected a profit between $1.04 and $1.07 per share for the year.

Meanwhile, computer chip maker Intel Corp. said it expects fourth-quarter revenue to drop 23 percent, below prior estimates, due to weak demand and inventory reductions by its computer maker customers.

Time Warner shares shed 97 cents, or 8.8 percent, to $10.01. Intel shares plunged nearly 6 percent, or 88 cents to $14.49.

Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc.'s decision to slash jobs further jolted investors.

Alcoa said late Tuesday it is reducing its global work force by about 13,500, or 13 percent, by the end of the year and lowering total output by more than 18 percent annually. Shares of Pittsburgh-based Alcoa tumbled 70 cents, or 5.8 percent, to $11.42.

The announcement comes ahead of the Labor Department's report Friday on the job market -- a closely watched barometer of the economy's health. The market got a disappointing harbinger Wednesday in the form of the ADP National Employment Report, an unofficial gauge that the market has been increasingly monitoring as U.S. job losses mount. The report said private sector employment fell by 693,000 in December, worse than expected.

When people lose their jobs, they tend to spend less and fall behind on their debt payments. Investors fear that further declines in consumer spending will prolong the recession.

"People are concerned with the employment report coming out on Friday," said Scott Fullman, director of derivatives investment strategy for WJB Capital Group in New York. "The market has shrugged off some bad news recently, and it's starting to get to the point where it can't do that anymore."

The Dow has rallied about 20 percent since its multiyear lows in late November 2008, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index has surged nearly 25 percent.

"We've had a big move," Fullman said. "What we're looking at now is just people getting a little cautious here."

In late morning trading, the Dow dropped 186.46, or 2.07 percent, to 8,828.64. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 21.57, or 2.31 percent, to 913.13, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 41.70, or 2.52 percent, to 1,610.68.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies was down 14.98, or 2.91 percent, to 499.73.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 6 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 297.50 million shares.

On Tuesday, Wall Street overcame gloomy economic readings to finish with a moderate advance. The market's economic worries had been calmed a bit in recent days by President-elect Barack Obama's proposal to slash taxes and help businesses. The stimulus package could cost as much as $775 billion, though, and Obama said Tuesday the nation could face trillion-dollar deficits "for years to come."

Bond prices rose on Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.46 percent from 2.47 percent late Tuesday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, edged lower to 0.11 percent from 0.14 percent.

The Treasury plans to auction a record $30 billion in three-year notes on Wednesday.

The dollar fell against other major currencies. Gold prices also fell.

Crude oil prices slipped $2.46 to $46.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.74 percent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 3.37 percent. In afternoon trading in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.31 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.37 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 1.14 percent.

My trades for December 2008...

Hello everyone,

These are my trades for December 2008. Click on it for the enlarge image.

Warmest Regards,
Ash Ariffin