Japan is likely to see a rebound in the second half of this year after a blow that will be determined by the magnitude of electricity disruptions caused by the earthquake and tsunami, a survey of economists showed.
Banks are split on whether the nation will slip into a recession, with Mizuho Securities Co. saying that’s “almost certain,” and Barclays Capital not seeing a single quarter of contraction. Annualized growth will trough at 0.4 percent in the second quarter, the median forecasts of nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg News show.
“The hits to the electricity supply and extent of the hits to the supply chain are making it harder to analyze,” said Michael Buchanan, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong, who previously worked at the International Monetary Fund. The longer it takes to restore electricity, the bigger the damage, he said.
At stake for Japan’s trading partners is a resumption in exports of components and equipment used in the assembly of goods abroad, such as silicon wafers, liquid-crystal displays and electric machinery. Supply disruptions could result in an increase in business costs as companies opt to hold bigger inventories, according to Moody’s Analytics.
Banks are split on whether the nation will slip into a recession, with Mizuho Securities Co. saying that’s “almost certain,” and Barclays Capital not seeing a single quarter of contraction. Annualized growth will trough at 0.4 percent in the second quarter, the median forecasts of nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg News show.
“The hits to the electricity supply and extent of the hits to the supply chain are making it harder to analyze,” said Michael Buchanan, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong, who previously worked at the International Monetary Fund. The longer it takes to restore electricity, the bigger the damage, he said.
At stake for Japan’s trading partners is a resumption in exports of components and equipment used in the assembly of goods abroad, such as silicon wafers, liquid-crystal displays and electric machinery. Supply disruptions could result in an increase in business costs as companies opt to hold bigger inventories, according to Moody’s Analytics.
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