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Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Euro Outlook (17th October 2006)

Into Europe and early sellers took advantage of the 1.2540+ rates ahead of what was potentially Euro negative slew of numbers. Spot eased back to 1.2525 but talk of an upbeat German ZEW release did the rounds and the price was soon bouncing. However, Macro buyers were just as quickly forced to reverse as the dismal ZEW was compounded by near expectation Euro Zone data.

1.2525 was again re-tested and with bids being filled the pair has managed to work lower, 1.2521 the current low. Ahead of the North American open and spot is eyeing the downside. More bids are seen trailing back to the better size into 1.2510/15 area but London players now see the US entrance as key to the short-term direction. Should North American players take a look at the earlier EZ & German data and sell the Euro then a run at 1.2500/05 could be on the cards. However, if the impending US data keeps them from pulling the trigger then the Asian central bank bids into 1.2505 will remain untested for the moment as the EUR manages to stave off further weakness. 1.2550 & 1.2575/80 are seen as the key topside level.

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