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Friday, October 20, 2006

USD/CHF: Still Offered Despite No Follow Through On Stops

USD/CHF is still trading heavy despite the lack of follow through on the stops at 1.2610. The low was 1.2603, some rumours of barrier defence at 1.2600 - but they seem to be rumours only. 1.2600 was the last "significant low" on the hourly chart that prompted a 70 pt power surge that helped propel USD/CHF to its recent highs, and it may well be that techies and momentum accounts are keying off this as a good target level for taking profits - and as any old salt knows, you never want to leave your orders right at the figure. The 200 day M/A which seems to be in vogue is at 1.2580, which coincides with the 50% Fibo of 1.1920/ 1.3240 - so it should prove to be formidable support, and the 20 day M/A is moving up to cross over the 200 day M/A shortly, currently at 1.2565. If the North Korean general story proves to be a storm in a tea cup, these would be very attractive levels to get long with stops below 1.2580. One final thought - 1.2604 is where the support line off the Oct 5 and Oct 8 lows comes in today.

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