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Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Sterling Outlook (24th October 2006)

Asian sovereign buy interest around 1.8680 helped to prop GBP/USD through the London morning, following the early Europe break below 1.8712 (today's Asian session base). There is speculation that the Asian sovereign demand might be M&A-related. Further buy interest from the same Asian sovereign is tipped around 1.8660. Double-day lows just shy of 1.8660 were plumbed last Wednesday and Thursday. Stops are touted sub-1.8650.

1.8712 is now a rebound resistance level. Upper obstacles include 1.8736 (today's Asian session peak), 1.8741 (yesterday's NY session high), and 1.8750. October's CBI manufacturing orders book balance, disclosed at 10:00GMT, came in at a much worse-than-expected minus 20. EUR/GBP scaled a fresh intra-day peak of 0.6716 on the back of the bad number. Some stops are touted above 0.6720.

Bids are tipped below 0.6700, inclusive of orders at 0.6695. BoE Chief Economist Charles Bean is slated to speak about globalization and inflation at the LSE at 17:30GMT.

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