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Tuesday, October 31, 2006

GBP/USD: Rate Outlook Still Pointing To A November Hike

A mixed London morning for the Pound with a frothy housing market and a rise in consumer confidence but a drop in retail activity, according to the CBI. On balance still a Sterling buy with the data having little impact on the market's rate outlook. The BoE is widely expected to tighten policy by a 1/4-point next week.

Cable has traded from 1.8965 to 1.9028 and then back to 1.8960, where the current bull push started. The daily chart continues to look top heavy and corrective action is likely to dominate a thin month-end market. Risk to 1.8945-50 but expect bids to support price in the 1.8970-80 area.

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