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Friday, October 13, 2006

Euro Outlook (13th Octoer 2006)

Following the Poole comments overnight spot pushed to a high of 1.2579 but the EUR failed to sustain the gains and amid lightened European flow the pair soon eased back to 1.2550 support.

Looking ahead, the battle of the central banks continues with the ECB's Stark the next speaker on the rostrum at 12:30 GMT. As he speaks in Dublin the market will also brace for the release of US September Import/Export Prices & Retail Sales data. Higher USD rates are not expected to have had any considerable impact on the Labour Dept. release while economists look for the September Retail Sales headline to show a 0.2% rise.

Elsewhere, dealers note a 1.2500 expiry to make it a clean-sweep for the week of 1.25 strikes. Add to this, option barriers in play at this level and the downside will again expect to find protection on approach to the previous bounce low at 1.2503. Below, "very large" stops are seen sub-1.2480 while the 200-Day moving average sits at 1.2473 at present with speculation that reserve managers will have a lot interest should such rates be plumbed in the near-term.

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