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Thursday, October 26, 2006

Swiss Outlook (26th October 2006)

The bounce to 1.2625 into early European trading gave European traders the higher levels they required to sell into. As they gave their first reaction to the overnight Fed verdict & announcement spot was sold back below 1.2600 as short CHF positions continued to be bought back.

Stops triggered on the way down before bids into 1.2560/65 were found to limit further Dollar weakness. However, bears look for a return towards 1.2550 then 1.2500. Selling into strength into North America is preferred and London players note the 1.2585/90 & 1.2600/05 areas as offering value depending on your approach to risk aversion and the view your take on the US data.

Elsewhere, the latest calculation of the Swiss consumption indicator by UBS saw the headline come in at 1.88 in September, up from 1.72 in August. The data reflects the continued robust undertones within the domestic economy with the latest figure seen as "significantly" above its long-term average at 1.49. Private consumption remains solid but with the potential for a slowdown in growth into 2007 these numbers will become increasingly important.

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