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Thursday, October 19, 2006

Sterling Outlook (19th October 2006)

Price action churned through the overnight session with the market contained within a 1.8667 to 1.8697 range. Small buy stops tight above 1.8695 provided the early London market with a target and the push higher accelerated to 1.8730. Still talk in the market of a sizeable Cable overhang although much of the speculative selling that has shaped recent Sterling weakness has reportedly thinned out. Much weaker than expected UK retail sales for Sept slammed Cable down from 1.8730 to 1.8665 from where consolidation set in.

Look for bidding at 1.8665 and offers in the 1.8740-50 area. The daily chart shows price held between the 10 and 21-day moving averages, currently 1.8635 and 1.8765. Direction remains clouded as Sterling trades towards the bottom-end of a broad 1.8500 to 1.90 range. On Balance a buy but scope seen limited.

In the news, a dovish stance adopted by BoE's, Rachel Lomax, has not worried the Pound too much but her view that economic indicators appeared to have ticked down in the last month or two has taken some attention away from the double hike vote, revealed in last session's MPC minutes.

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