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Friday, May 18, 2007

Swiss Outlook (17th May 2007)

As the old song goes, "What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours" This time yesterday the USD lay on the canvas down for the count, and tonight sans the 1.2210-20 stops the buck is surging. USD/CHF opened this morning in New York around 1.2175 with New York traders more than a little surprised.

An overnight surge to new nine year highs in EUR/CHF had changed the playing field for USD/CHF, and forced US traders to re-assess. US data was mixed with an upward bias however traders attribute the dollar surge more to lack of liquidity ahead of tomorrow's European market holidays than anything else. A late clean up of dollar shorts turned into a rout, and when one of the large US commercial banks counseled technical clients to cut all dollar shorts it just got worse.

The high was 1.2247, the close 1.2230. Earlier SNB comments knocked EUR/CHF off its 1.6554 top, and in a magazine interview with Jeanne-Pierre Roth published this afternoon, he re-iterated the risks in the carry trade, and the dichotomy between the state of the economy and the strength of the CHF.

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