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Friday, May 18, 2007

Yen Outlook (17th May 2007)

USD/JPY and JPY crosses all looked relatively bid today, especially after slightly weaker than expected Q1 GDP. Against expectations of 0.7% Q/Q and 2.7% annualized rises, rise of 0.6% and 2.4% were seen. From 120.68, USD/JPY moved up to 120.88 but further moves up were again rejected by protection of 121.00 barriers.

More of these barriers are seen expiring today. Stops are eyed above this level. A mix of stops and offers are seen thereafter up to 120.20. A good offer is seen at 121.25. Japanese exporters are obviously amongst those offering. EUR/JPY moved up from 163.21 to 163.55 on the back of the data. EUR heaviness continued to weigh as did talk of European central bank offers around 164.00 and also from option players defending barriers there.

AUD/JPY also bounced from 99.45 to 99.88 on the back of buying from model funds and bargain hunters. This too despite diversification of portfolios out of AUD and into LATAM and Canada. NZD/JPY edged up from 88.44 to 88.70 but remains essentially rangebound in a core 88-89 range. GBP/JPY moved up from 238.70 to the 239.00 level before also steadying.

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