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Monday, July 16, 2007

Euro Outlook (16th July 2007)

The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.3780 after trading to an all-time high at 1.3812 on Friday in the wake of weaker than expected US Retail Sales data. The EUR/USD eased to 1.3771 in very early Asia due to EUR/JPY selling that took the cross down to 167.77 after stops were triggered below 167.90.

Good buying interest at 1.3770 and a rebound in the EUR/JPY buoyed the EUR/USD and the pairing trades back to 1.3792 before settling around 1.3785/90 for the balance of the quiet, Tokyo holiday affected session.

Sentiment towards the EUR/USD is decidedly bullish. The EUR/USD is getting short-term support from the mixed US data that is good enough to support the view that the global economy is on strong footing and thereby encouraging US investors push funds offshore and not so good as to raise expectations of a Fed hike.

The EUR/USD is getting long-term support from central bank diversification that is expected to accelerate later in the year. Traders expect the trend higher to continue, but there might be hesitation ahead of some key US inflation and housing data along with Bernanke testifying to the House on Thursday.

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