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Thursday, July 19, 2007

Euro Outlook (19th July 2007)

The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.3805 and immediately spiked to 1.3815 on reports of an explosion in New York. The explosion turned out to be an accident and the EUR/USD slipped back to 1.3800 and proceeded to trade in a very narrow 1.3791/1.3805 range for the balance of the session.

There was talk of good buying interest at 1.3790 and 1.3770 while stops are eyed below 1.3750. Sellers are lined up between 1.3820/35 with stops above 1.3840. Trading was subdued in Asia today compared to yesterday with most of the action confined to the peripheral currencies.

Sentiment towards the EUR/USD remains bullish, but most traders say they would prefer buying dips towards 1.3755/70 where sovereign names are rumoured to be bidding. They feel that concerns about sub-prime and US housing in general have been built in the EUR/USD at the higher levels and these concerns have had a tendency to fade in recent weeks when there was no fresh news to keep them alive. There is little in the way of data out of the EZ later today and the US data includes Leading Indicators and Philly Fed.

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