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Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Euro Outlook (29th November 2006)

The failure to break 1.3220/25 left the Euro open to profit-taking into European trading and London dealers were only too happy to oblige ahead of the key US data later today. Trading was pushed back to 1.3150 as technicians talked of a clear divergence between the longer-term uptrend and the short-run bearish bias.

Looking ahead, US Q3 GDP is due for its second outing at 13:30 GMT. Economists remain upbeat about the data and few are willing to rule out an upside surprise after the previous +1.6% reading. Following this, the 15:00 GMT unveiling of New US Home Sales and the 19:00 GMT Fed Beige Book will be in focus but ECB and FOMC speakers are both on the roster to talk also. In other news, M&A has supported the USD intraday with the FT reporting that a USD 5Bn deal for the US firm Houghton Miffin is close.

Ireland's Riverdeep is the name in the frame with private equity the biggest benefactor. On the options front, 1.3220/25 & 1.3250 barriers look well protected while the 1.3100 expiries intraday should add some support to the price in the short- term with talk also now of renewed 1.30 exotics in play on the downside.

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