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Monday, November 27, 2006

Sterling Outlook (27th November 2006)

The GBP/USD opened at 1.9330 after surging higher on Friday when the USD downmove accelerated in the wake of comments from a PBOC official regarding risks for Asian central bank assets posed by a weakening USD. It was a wild session in Asia for the GBP. GBP/JPY stops were triggered above 224.20 sending the GBP/USD up from 1.9330 to 194.70.

The GBP/JPY order was reversed for some reason and the cross fell back to 223.70 while the GBP/USD slumped to 1.9370. The GBP/JPY stop above 224.20 was triggered again late in the Tokyo morning and the cross went back to 224.55 while the GBP/USD hovered around 1.9390/1.9410. The volatile GBP/JPY resulted in the EUR/GBP whipping between 0.6760/85 before settling around 0.6770 for the balance of the session.

Major resistance for the GBP/USD is found at the December 2004 high 1.9550 and a break above that level will have the market eyeing a move towards 2.000, as some of the UK weekend press suggests it is heading. A break below 1.9370 could see a drift back to 1.9330 while key hourly support is found at 1.9285. A break below 1.9285 would relieve the upward pressure.

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