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Friday, November 17, 2006

Swiss Outlook (17th November 2006)

The Swissie has finally succumbed to the weight of selling and both EUR/CHF & USD/CHF have rallied into the North American open. As a result, the combination of buying in both has forced USD/CHF to a new session high while EUR/CHF has been pushed to a fresh 6 1/2 year high, with 1.6008 printing.

Talk of 1.6005 options is now historic while the EUR 250Mln 1.6000 expiry at the NY cut-off at 15:00 GMT should weigh on cross in the short-term. Above 1.6020 is the next barrier level while several European names call for the cross appreciation to continue should a close above the figure be seen. Against the Dollar, the CHF fell to 1.2535 amid the move and bulls are now looking for 1.2550 in USD/CHF should further US unit strength be seen.

Technicals suggest that a break above 1.2575 will act as a trigger for a rally towards the 1.2700's in the longer-term. Looking ahead, US housing data is set for release at 13:30 GMT, economists look for small drop in the headline but dealers expect the USD to remain underpinned.

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