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Thursday, November 23, 2006

Sterling Outlook (23rd November 2006)

Cable revisited yesterday's 12-day peak of 1.9168 during the European morning, on the back of German IFO-spurred EUR/USD gains to fresh five-month highs five pips shy of 1.2980 (June 5 top). EUR/GBP also rose to a three-day peak just shy of 0.6775, post-IFO. GBP/USD offers are touted towards 1.9180 (Nov 10, 19-month high), with some stops tipped above 1.9180.

These could inflate the rate towards 1.9200, a previously noted exotic option barrier level, if tripped. Another exotic option barrier resides up at 1.9300. This is the peak of a slated January expiry DNT. Sterling support points include 1.9130 (today's Asian session base), 1.9100, 1.9085 (yesterday's NY session low), 1.9066, 1.9050, 1.9025, and 1.9000.

News-wise: CBI director general Richard Lambert says UK firms have no intention of offering big pay rises in the New Year wage round (Reuters). Lambert also says that US protectionism is a concern for UK companies (DJ). The second estimate of Q3 UK GDP will be disclosed at 09:30GMT tomorrow (Friday). Forecast: +0.7% q/q, +2.8% y/y.

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