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Tuesday, November 14, 2006

USD/CHF: Working Against the Intraday Bear Trend

Swiss markets have been moving in line with the broader market trends for early Tuesday and this has led to USD/CHF falling steadily from late Monday levels around 1.2464 to 1.2408. It took data releases from the UK and Eurozone to upset the order with the Dollar taking advantage of lower than expected UK CPI and a fall in the headline German ZEW index.

USD/CHF short covering from 1.2410 to 1.2440 set the latest tone but the market is already beginning to settle and the risk is for a gradual drift back to the 1.2415-20 area and then consolidation ahead of this afternoon's US data releases and the latest SNB speech.

Big picture dynamics still favour the Franc with the 10-day moving average standing guard at 1.2475 and Monday's bull run alleviating some of the oversold technical values. Key levels are now seen at 1.2350 and 1.2465-75.

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