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Monday, November 27, 2006

Swiss Outlook (27th November 2006)

The skeleton crews manning US trading rooms were a little surprised at this morning's levels, with most of them junior personnel who weren't carrying overnight positions, and were not prepared for the post-Thanksgiving Day price levels.

Sticker shock is the best way to describe it, and the US session was spent defensively pricing whatever "must do" business emanated from in house and commercial accounts. Spot USD/CHF opened at 1.2095 and closed at 1.2095, with the range 1.2079-1.2119. US markets "maintained parity" as old FX hands like to say, and US trading rooms were in no mood to take on new risk, "he who fights and runs away" was the motto of the day. Cross rate action was interesting, in a supposedly risk averse liquidation mode, the primary cross EUR/CHF ran up from 1.5825 to 1.5855, and closed at 1.5835.

CHF/JPY ran up from the US session low of 95.59 to 95.84 at the high, before closing at 95.75. GBP/CHF opened at 2.3350, traded to a high of 2.3400 and closed at 2.3360. US price action showed ambivalence in the crosses at these levels, and traders are looking for more proof that this is the real deal.

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