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Thursday, November 30, 2006

Sterling Outlook (30th November 2006)

Sterling soared from the European open, en route to a 14-year peak of 1.9580. Stops above 1.9550 and 1.9565 were tripped en route to that peak. Some option-protective sell interest might emerge ahead of 1.9600 if GBP/USD progresses on towards the figure, re: a touted 1.9600 exotic option barrier.

2.00 is among flagged bull targets beyond (2.01 was the September 1992 high, pre-Black Wednesday). 1.9545/50 is now a pullback support window. 1.9550 was the December 2004 top. 1.9545 was yesterday's peak. Lower props include 1.9528 (Tuesday's high), 1.9500, and 1.9450. Today's Asian session range was 1.9449-1.9494.

BoE Governor Mervyn King told the TSC that the GBP exchange rate against an average of all other currencies has not risen in any way near the amount that GBP/USD has risen (Reuters). US personal income and consumption data, plus October's core PCE and weekly jobless claims, will be disclosed at 13:30GMT. November's Chicago PMI index will ensue at 15:00GMT.

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