Cable has fallen by three-quarters-of-a-cent to an 8-day low of 1.8959 since the 09:30GMT disclosure of October's sub-forecast UK CPI. This came in at 2.4%, unchanged from September. A rise to 2.6% was expected. The below-forecast number is bad news for hawks touting another 25bp UK base rate hike in February.
However, it is too soon to make a definitive call about February's UK rate verdict, re: the RPI rise to an 8-year+ high of 3.7%. GBP/USD stops are tipped below 1.8950 (Nov 6 low). These could spur fresh downward pressure towards 1.8925 if tripped. 1.8975 (last Thursday's post-US trade data low) is now a rebound resistance level. Upper obstacles include 1.8998 (yesterday's floor), 1.9009 (today's Asian session base), and 1.9051 (today's Asian session peak).
US October retail sales will be revealed at 13:30GMT, alongside October PPI. Retail sales and headline PPI are both forecast down 0.4% m/m. The BoE quarterly inflation report will be published tomorrow. It will be preceded by UK unemployment and earnings data.
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