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Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Swiss Outlook (14th November 2006)

Looking ahead, US October PPI & Retail Sales data is set for release intraday with the 13:30 GMT releases seen as the key event-risk for the North American session. Factory gate inflation continues to be at the heart of many concerns with economists looking for the previous 1.3% fall to be reversed with the consensus opting for a +0.5% figure, while core is expected at +0.1%.

October Retail Sales are expected to fall 0.4% but should there be any revision to the previous data then the release could easily be skewed. Following this more Poole & Yellen comments will be aired, at 17:30 & 21:00 GMT respectively. In the wake of the hawkish Roth & Hildebrand rhetoric Swiss inflation data may no longer be of pivotal importance to the potential for further rates hikes.

However, the October data will be released tomorrow with economists looking for a -0.3% M/M & +2.2% Y/Y result, down from the previous 0.0% & +2.5% readings. The SNB Chairman is also set to speak later today, 17:15 GMT in St. Gallen, and with his topic "international currency order or disorder" many will be looking for a continuance of his hawkish tone.

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