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Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Swiss Outlook (29th November 2006)

Into European trading and the Franc was already on the defensive as the option barriers at 1.2000 continued to be defended to leave the topside the only open path. Offers into 1.2050 initially attempted to limit the rebound but talk of a weak KoF forced the macro market to buy.

The release of the 1.73 Nov headline confirmed the Franc sales and spot rallied to 1.2075/80 offers. Offers trailing back to the 1.2090/2100 area are now trying to cap while cross sales are also said to weigh. Offers in [EUR/CHF] into 1.5900/05 cap the cross after the CHF was impacted by the domestic data but 1.5910+ stops are eyed by bulls.

Looking ahead, US Q3 GDP is due for its second outing at 13:30 GMT. Economists remain upbeat about the data and few are willing to rule out an upside surprise after the previous +1.6% reading. Following this, the 15:00 GMT unveiling of US New Home Sales and the 19:00 GMT Fed Beige Book will be in focus. Should any of the data of Fed comments dent the US unit then the attention will return to the 1.2000 option barriers.

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