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Friday, November 24, 2006

Swiss Outlook (24th November 2006)

With US traders punishing the Dollar for ruining early pre-Thanksgiving departures a usually calm, steady, holiday market turned into a rout for the US unit. Talk of further carry trade unwinding has heavily favoured the Swiss Franc and both USD/CHF and EUR/CHF have extended their Wednesday slide. Indeed EUR/CHF has recorded new 7-week lows at 1.5840.

Strong Swiss non-farm payroll data added further to the swissy's shine. The employment in Switzerland climbed to its highest in 14-years during the third quarter and the market is assuming that more good news on the jobs front will be forthcoming. USD/CHF fell from 1.2415 to 1.2256 last session and the move has been extended to 1.2222 during a thinned European session. Talk of profit take bids in the 1.2220's and stops above 1.2310.

For the cross a similar story with new lows of 1.5839 and profit taking preventing a drop to 1.5800. Both CHF pairings are oversold and corrective rebounds will now be the risk into the weekend, which for many will be at close of business today.

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