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Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Sterling Outlook (22nd November 2006)

The pound has shrugged off the surprise MPC minutes revelation that BoE Deputy Governor Lomax joined ultra-dove Blanchflower in voting against this month's 25bp base rate hike to 5.0%. GBP/USD posted knee-jerk losses to lows just shy of 1.9025 on the 09:30GMT release but is now trading over half-a-cent higher.

1.9066 was the pre-MPC minutes high. M&A news is helping underpin the pound, with ICI's Quest sale to Switzerland's Givaudan for CHF 2.8bn cash (FT website) being the latest example. Spain's Iberdrola could present a GBP 12bn bid for Scottish Power next week, according to Expansion (DJ). India's Tata Steel, meanwhile, is in talks with its bankers about the need for more funds to stave off Brazilian CSN's GBP 4.3bn takeover offer for Anglo-Dutch Corus, according to the Economic Times (DJ).

GBP/USD resistance levels include 1.9100, 1.9150, 1.9180 (Nov 10, 19-month peak), and 1.9200. Pre-1.9025 support points: 1.9066, 1.9050, and 1.9038. November's final November Michigan Sentiment index will be disclosed at 15:00GMT. Forecast: 93.1.

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