Stronger-than-expected 0.5% Q/Q growth in Q3 Japanese GDP saw JPY push higher overnight and into Europe. Median expectations were for a 0.2% rise and there were whisperings from yesterday of -0.1% or -0.2%. USD/JPY fell from an early Asian high of 118.17 to as low as 117.54 before the market steadied.
Into Europe and new lows of 117.41 before soft UK and EZ data opened the door to fresh Dollar gains and pick up in USD/JPY to 117.95. EUR/JPY fell from 151.30/35 through 150.80 stops to a low of 150.60. The cross bounced back towards 151.35 but post-GDP offers there pushed the market back down. Japanese bids from institutional investors and importers around 117.50 in USD/JPY, and trailing lower, and around 150.50 in the cross will limit more downside.
The strong headline data does up the chances of a December rate hike by the BoJ. That said, the deflator was down 0.8% Q/Q and personal consumption down 0.7%, and these two argue against. BoJ Gov Fukui's comments after the Policy Board meeting on Wed-Thu will be eyed carefully. USD/JPY is clinging precariously to a bull bias but a weak set of US numbers this afternoon could alter things.
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