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Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Euro Outlook (14th November 2006)

The EUR/USD opened around 1.2805 in Asia after correcting lower as the effect of the China diversification story waned ahead of a week full of key US data. The EUR/USD moved higher when the USD/JPY led the USD broadly lower in the wake of stronger than expected Japan GDP data.

The EUR/USD traded to 1.2825 before EUR/JPY selling and EUR/USD sell orders between 1.2830/50 discouraged attempts higher. The cross fell from 151.25 to 150.75 after the strong Japanese data. The EUR/USD settled between 1.2800/20 for the balance of the session. There is talk of central bank bids at 1.2795 and stops below 1.2790 that might come into focus at some stage later today with German ZEW, GDP and CPI due for release followed by US PPI and Retail Sales.

If the German data is firmer than expected and US data is on the low side of expectations the pressure could switch back to the topside with stops building above 1.2850. Key support/resistance is found at 1.2740/1.2900.

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