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Friday, November 17, 2006

Euro Outlook (17th November 2006)

The late Asian USD rally was forced to reverse in European trading as hedge funds bought back longs. EUR/USD rallied but offers into 1.2790/2800 capped the rebound as Euro Zone trade data disappointed. Into early NorAm, spot pivots 1.2775, after rejecting moves in both directions. Offers into 1.2790/2800 cap while option related demand around 1.2760 will look to base dips (linked to a decent 1.2750 expiry).

Stops are seen below 1.2745.Looking ahead, US housing data is set for release at 13:30 GMT, economists look for small drop in the headline but dealers expect the USD to remain underpinned. Concluding the event-risk for the week are the Pianalto comments. Elsewhere, the central bank diversification argument rumbles on and the UAE central bank head has been the latest to have his say on the subject.

Suweidi said "the shift to a 10% holding in Euro & Gold has not yet been completed" while he also felt the single currency would be the global currency of international trade in around 10-years time. In contrast, the Fed's own Fisher suggest the role of the US unit will not change in the long-term.

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